Growth and Crisis https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/ en Three Perspectives on Brazilian Growth Pessimism https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/three-perspectives-brazilian-growth-pessimism-0 <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><div> <span>It has become increasingly evident over the last two years that the growth engine of the Brazilian economy has run out of steam. Despite relative resilience during the global financial crisis and following a quick recovery, economic growth registered just 1 percent in 2012 and a meager 2.5 percent in 2013. More recently, the economy grew at the annual equivalent of only 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Little improvement is expected in the near term. To the contrary, as of early June, the median forecaster expects growth of 1.4 for 2014 and 1.8 percent for 2015. Further out the horizon, a muted recovery is anticipated that would bring growth to 2.5-3 percent between 2016 and 2018.</span></div> </div></div></div> Tue, 10 Jun 2014 21:10:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8879 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Secular Stagnation: A Working Pair of Scissors Needs Two Blades https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/secular-stagnation-working-pair-scissors-needs-two-blades <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" height="225" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/files/growth/Scissors.jpg" style="float:right" title="" width="300" />The role of asset bubbles as an unsustainable pillar of pre-2007 world economic growth has been widely recognized. Simultaneously, analysts worry that a secular stagnation, though momentarily offset by asset bubbles, may have been already at play in major advanced economies, leading to the ongoing <a href="https://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/03/crisis-recovery-flying-on-a-single-engine/" rel="nofollow">sluggish and feeble recovery</a>.</div></div></div> Wed, 12 Mar 2014 14:18:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8877 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Crisis Recovery: Flying on a Single Engine https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/crisis-recovery-flying-single-engine <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/files/growth/planes1.jpeg" style="float:right; height:223px; width:300px" />Policy makers in the advanced economies at the core of the global financial crisis can make the claim that they prevented a new “Great Depression”. However, recovery since the outbreak of the crisis more than five years ago has been sluggish and feeble.</div></div></div> Thu, 06 Mar 2014 05:14:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8876 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Clogged Metropolitan Arteries https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/clogged-metropolitan-arteries <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/files/growth/Moscow_traffic_congestion.JPG_.jpeg" style="float:right; height:225px; width:300px" />Bad conditions of mobility and accessibility to jobs and services in most metropolitan regions in developing countries are a key development issue. Besides the negative effects on the wellbeing of their populations associated with traffic congestion and time spent on transportation, the latter mean economic losses in terms of waste of human and material resources.<br /><br /></div></div></div> Mon, 10 Feb 2014 14:59:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8875 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth China and Emerging Markets: Riding Wild Horses https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/china-and-emerging-markets-riding-wild-horses-0 <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/files/growth/Year%20of%20the%20Horse.jpeg" style="float:right; height:225px; width:300px" />One month ago, I discussed some <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/calibrating-2014" rel="nofollow">major risks</a> to a slight upturn in the global economic scenario for 2014.</div></div></div> Tue, 04 Feb 2014 00:01:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8874 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Sovereign Wealth Funds Are Coming Home https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/sovereign-wealth-funds-are-coming-home <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p> <img alt="" src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8061/8261681765_0abd5ba08f_z.jpg" style="float:right; height:200px; width:300px" />Followers of this blog have read several recent pieces on the changing landscape of investment finance in developing countries, particularly in natural resource-rich countries. We have approached the rise of <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/otaviano-canuto/development-banks-and-pos_b_3779959.html" rel="nofollow">development banks</a> partially filling the void left by the retrenchment of international banking. We have also highlighted how <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/otaviano-canuto/a-billion-dollar-opportun_b_4143095.html" rel="nofollow">less tax avoidance on extractive industries</a> can be obtained and how that would make a huge difference in terms of resources available for local investment in those countries, provided that <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/otaviano-canuto/natural-resource-curse_b_1556652.html" rel="nofollow">appropriate policies are put into place</a>. Furthermore, we have pointed out the emergence of new forms and contracts of <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/otaviano-canuto/resource-backed-investmen_b_3977151.html" rel="nofollow">resource-backed investment finance</a>, including a redirection toward home in asset acquisition made by developing countries’ Sovereign Wealth Funds. <br /><br /> I have invited three colleagues who have been studying the subject more closely to write the short piece below. Hope you will enjoy it as much as I did.<br />  </div></div></div> Wed, 15 Jan 2014 22:13:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8872 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Calibrating 2014 https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/calibrating-2014 <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5082/5321278576_df7f8e5d12.jpg" style="float:right; height:199px; width:300px" />The global economy looks poised to display better growth performance in 2014. Leading indicators are pointing upward – or at least to stability – in major growth poles. However, for this to translate into reality policymakers will need to be nimble enough to calibrate responses to idiosyncratic challenges.<br /><br /></div></div></div> Thu, 02 Jan 2014 18:16:00 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8871 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Brazil, Korea: Two Tales of a Macroprudential Regulation https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/brazil-korea-two-tales-macroprudential-regulation <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5259/5387796133_e0c09fe0d3.jpg" style="float:right; height:200px; width:300px" />The pervasiveness and relevance of asset price booms and busts in modern economies has now been fully acknowledged. So has the case for combining prudential regulation and monetary policy in the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/otaviano-canuto/a-marriage-of-convenience_b_877454.html" rel="nofollow">complementary pursuit</a> of financial and macroeconomic stability.</div></div></div> Mon, 02 Dec 2013 17:47:14 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8870 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Elephants and Macro-Financial Linkages https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/elephants-and-macro-financial-linkages <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4104/5094792082_a2e37da6d6.jpg" style="float:right; height:199px; width:300px" />Global financial integration and the linkages between the financial and the real sides of economies are sources of huge policy challenges. This is now beyond doubt, after what we saw in the run-up to and the unfolding of the 2008 global financial crisis.</div></div></div> Mon, 18 Nov 2013 22:07:06 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8869 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth Moving Past the Commodity Supercycle: Are We There Yet? https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/moving-past-commodity-supercycle-are-we-there-yet <div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img alt="" src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8346/8261700135_1dbc5cff3a.jpg" style="float:right; height:200px; width:300px" />Some analysts are predicting that the commodity price boom of the new millennium is something that has played itself out. Except for shale gas and its downward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices, however, natural resource-based commodity prices have remained high by historical records in the last few years, despite the feebleness of the recent global economic recovery.</div></div></div> Mon, 04 Nov 2013 17:51:01 +0000 Otaviano Canuto 8868 at https://blogs.worldbank.org/growth