March 2023 version
The World Bank’s Prospects Group has constructed a comprehensive international database of potential growth. The database covers up to 173 countries for 1981-2021, and includes nine measures of potential growth of which the following eight are published:
- Multivariate filter (MVF)
- Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP)
- Christiano-Fitzgerald filter (CF)
- Baxter-King filter (BK)
- Butterworth filter (BW)
- Unobserved Components Model (UCM)
- 5-year ahead expectations (based on IMF’s WEO database vintages)
- Production function approach together with its decomposition: capital, labor and total factor productivity (TFP)
Kilic Celik, Kose, Ohnsorge, and Ruch (2023) provide detailed information on the database, document the steady decline in global potential growth over the past decade, and show the impact of adverse shock on potential growth.
When using the data, please cite the following paper as the data source:
Kilic Celik, S., M. A. Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and F. U. Ruch. 2023. "Potential Growth: A Global Database." Policy Research Working Paper 10354, World Bank, Washington, DC.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in the paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations.