The Spring edition of the semi-annual CEMAC Economic Barometer is a report that discusses the current economic situation in CEMAC, followed by brief country analyses. Download the report here.
Here are some key highlights from the report:
Economic activity in the CEMAC region expanded moderately in 2024, insufficient to create sufficient jobs for the region’s youth and to drive substantial poverty reduction. Cameroon and Chad exhibited the strongest growth performances, driven by increased cocoa and cotton exports, and non-oil sector expansion, respectively. Gabon saw an increase in oil production, while the Republic of Congo registered modest growth, with an expansion in non-oil sectors and a decline in oil production. The Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea reported the lowest growth estimates, with modest recoveries driven by various sectoral improvements. The regional growth rate is projected at 2.9% in 2025-2027, well below that of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). CEMAC’s economic outlook is subject to high risks, coming primarily from a particularly uncertain global environment.
Real GDP growth in CEMAC, 2020-2027
CEMAC's fiscal position deteriorated in 2024 due to lower oil prices, reduced commodity revenues, and high spending pressures. The average fiscal balance shifted to a deficit of 1.5% of GDP, compared to a surplus of 0.6% in 2023. Public spending increased to 19.7% of GDP, while total revenues decreased to 18.2%, amid challenges to contain and target public spending, and mobilize more tax revenues. The region's debt-to-GDP ratio remains elevated, particularly in Congo and Gabon where it stands above the CEMAC debt ceiling of 70.0% of GDP.
Fiscal position (% of GDP) in CEMAC and WAEMU, 2020-2027
Meanwhile, the CEMAC region’s trade balance remained stable overall, registering a slight decrease from 8.9 percent to 8.6% of GDP between 2023 and 2024. The region continues to maintain trade and current account surpluses, backed by strong commodity exports. However, its vulnerability to volatile commodity prices is evident, with declining oil prices impacting the trade position.
The CEMAC region has witnessed a significant rise in its debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, reflecting growing financing needs. High debt service costs have drastically reduced fiscal space, leaving less room for spending on essential services like health and education. Debt-to-GDP ratios have surged due to external economic shocks, failed debt auctions, and refinancing risks. Countries like Congo and Gabon show high debt levels, with (domestic) debt reprofiling operations carried out recently to manage commitments. The region's debt situation is also complicated by transparency issues, making effective debt management challenging. An efficient fiscal consolidation strategy, combined with better management of debt and public finances, and increased investment in human capital and targeted support for the most vulnerable, is crucial for avoiding a debt crisis, improving the debt outlook, and ensuring fiscal sustainability.
Total external debt by creditors, 2023 per country, billions of USD
In addition to debt pressures, CEMAC countries face other significant challenges, including reliance on foreign aid and on commodity exports, and social and institutional fragilities. These vulnerabilities expose the region to significant risks such as reduced foreign aid, tightening financing conditions, and trade disruptions. Addressing these challenges requires targeted strategies to enhance economic, social and institutional resilience, promote economic diversification and job-based growth, and improve governance.
Creating quality jobs is key to reducing poverty and strengthening social cohesion. Overall, growth remains highly reliant on capital-intensive sectors such as the oil and other extractive sectors, which generate few jobs for the region’s fast-growing population, leaving many young people out of work. Unemployment, at about 9.7 % of the active population in CEMAC, is over four times higher than that of the WAEMU area. Also, more than 65% of jobs are informal, mostly in low-productivity service activities. Better infrastructure and business conditions, and investments in labor skills and human capital, are needed to enable firms to grow, hire, and expand into more sectors, increasing resilience to external shocks and boosting long-term economic growth.
