00:00 All right,
00:00 it's always exciting to be the final session between people and their lunches,
00:04 um,
00:05 but,
00:06 uh,
00:06 this has been an amazing week.
00:07 I'm particularly excited to be chatting with Mamta,
00:10 uh,
00:11 who is the vice president of people now,
00:14 which sounds very grand,
00:16 and it is,
00:18 um,
00:18 and I'll just share,
00:19 I've had the opportunity to work for Mamta for many years from when she was the
00:23 director of operations in the Africa region,
00:26 and I was working in the Africa Chief Economist's Office.
00:28 So we've heard a lot about human capital and human development this week,
00:33 especially in the last couple of days.
00:35 We've heard about education and people movement with
00:39 with migration and
00:42 health.
00:44 What I would argue are many of the most visceral,
00:46 fundamental issues
00:48 in development,
00:48 right,
00:49 whether people have
00:50 the skills to enjoy
00:52 a long and lustrous life,
00:54 whether there are markets for that,
00:55 whether they have the food.
00:57 To grow up
00:58 unstunted and have the full cognitive and development that comes with that.
01:04 So,
01:05 I remember a few years ago,
01:06 we were all looking at,
01:08 uh,
01:08 you know,
01:09 huge drops in human capital with the,
01:11 in the context of,
01:13 of the COVID crisis.
01:15 A lot of those have bounced back in a lot of places,
01:17 but Mom,
01:18 to,
01:18 to kick us off like,
01:20 How,
01:20 how do we think about human capital now 5 years on from COVID?
01:25 Um,
01:25 thank you,
01:26 Dave,
01:26 and,
01:27 uh,
01:27 good,
01:28 uh,
01:28 good afternoon,
01:29 everyone.
01:30 Um,
01:31 it's really,
01:31 uh,
01:32 I'm really happy
01:33 to have been invited and I'm,
01:34 I'm delighted that this,
01:36 uh,
01:36 ABCDE focused so much on human development,
01:39 even though it wasn't a part of the,
01:42 of the title.
01:43 Um,
01:44 uh,
01:44 I should clarify that,
01:46 uh,
01:46 I don't work on human resources
01:49 at the World Bank.
01:50 A lot of people think I do.
01:52 I get email every day from people who want to be recruited by the World Bank,
01:56 and,
01:56 and they think I'm I'm the VP for HR,
01:59 but I'm not.
02:00 Um,
02:01 I cover health,
02:03 education,
02:04 social protection,
02:05 labor markets,
02:07 the human capital project,
02:08 gender,
02:09 OK.
02:10 So,
02:11 um,
02:12 Great question.
02:13 Uh,
02:14 I would not say that human capital has bounced back
02:17 from,
02:18 from COVID,
02:19 from
02:20 the destruction that COVID wrought,
02:22 um,
02:22 but I would say that things like primary enrollment are probably back,
02:27 uh,
02:27 vaccination rates are,
02:28 are back up,
02:30 um,
02:30 uh,
02:31 but,
02:31 um,
02:32 it remains the case that many kids were out of school
02:35 during COVID.
02:37 And the learning assessments that have been done since COVID
02:40 show that in at least 2/3 of the countries
02:43 where learning assessments have been done,
02:45 um,
02:46 learning levels are not back up
02:49 to where they were pre-COVID.
02:52 So there is a long-term effect
02:54 on learning,
02:55 and
02:56 we know because learning is cumulative,
02:58 uh,
02:58 um,
02:59 it's going to take a while
03:00 unless
03:01 remedial measures are put in place,
03:04 um.
03:05 The second thing I would say is that COVID had a huge impact on,
03:08 on premature adult mortality,
03:11 so adults dying before they should,
03:14 and those levels are still elevated.
03:17 In fact,
03:18 we are producing a new human capital index,
03:21 which for the first time is actually going to also take into account adult,
03:26 it's going to take into account human capital built post 18 years of age,
03:31 and one of the shocking things that it's going to show
03:34 is that in many countries,
03:35 there's a destruction of human capital post age 18
03:39 because of adult mortality.
03:41 You know,
03:41 we think of,
03:42 we were,
03:43 we were talking about aging,
03:44 right,
03:44 which is related to
03:46 to growing longevity,
03:47 but it remains the case that many developing countries face
03:51 elevated death rates between the ages of 25 and 55,
03:58 which is,
03:59 which is how we are looking at it.
04:02 So,
04:02 um,
04:02 I would say that um
04:04 Some things have improved,
04:06 but there are lingering long term effects
04:09 on to which I want to add that we've just,
04:12 we've just come out with a new edition
04:13 of Global Economic prospects in the mid leads that
04:17 and growth rates are not looking that rosy for developing countries,
04:23 and that means that we're going to continue to have
04:26 problems in the labor market.
04:28 There are going to be many people who are not going to find jobs,
04:31 um,
04:32 even in India,
04:33 which is the bright spark in terms of growth rates,
04:36 it is the case that many young people are not able to
04:39 find jobs that can give them a decent quality of life.
04:43 Um,
04:44 so,
04:45 um,
04:45 bottom line,
04:46 things are looking up,
04:47 but there are still long term issues that persist.
04:52 So as a follow up to that,
04:54 there's,
04:56 you know,
04:56 one of the things you mentioned was that we have
04:58 this big destruction of human capital with learning loss,
05:02 and if we don't take action towards remedial,
05:05 you know,
05:05 measures
05:07 that we,
05:08 that,
05:08 you know,
05:09 those kids will never recover,
05:10 they may not recover entirely regardless.
05:12 What we've,
05:13 and I think there are parallels to the other sectors we've heard about in this,
05:16 in this conference,
05:17 but one of the things we've heard a lot about,
05:19 for example,
05:19 in the education section
05:22 session yesterday is how,
05:24 you know,
05:24 there are kind of fundamental issues,
05:27 right?
05:28 Uh,
05:28 violence in schools,
05:30 uh,
05:30 environmental contaminants like lead exposures,
05:33 right?
05:33 How do we think about
05:36 investments in remediation,
05:38 right,
05:39 which is very important right now.
05:42 versus
05:43 investments in obviously just
05:46 making sure that the next generation of kids are,
05:50 you know,
05:50 in,
05:51 you know,
05:52 violence-free schools
05:53 with high quality human capital transmission like,
05:57 you know,
05:58 good foundational literacy and numeracy systems
06:01 like there's a Competition for resources there.
06:04 How do we think about that trade-off?
06:06 Um,
06:06 so that's a tough question,
06:08 um,
06:08 but let me say this,
06:09 there's a lot,
06:10 the countries that have managed to do remediation have
06:13 managed to do it
06:15 at relatively low cost.
06:17 Let me give you the example of Tamil Nadu,
06:20 a province in India,
06:22 the country that I come from,
06:24 um,
06:25 even as COVID was receding.
06:27 They were able to at scale.
06:31 Um,
06:31 use high school graduates,
06:33 uh,
06:34 so these are not,
06:34 these are not college educated young people,
06:37 use high school graduates to do learning,
06:40 to,
06:41 to read
06:42 to young people
06:44 after the school day is over,
06:46 regularly,
06:47 5 days a week.
06:48 They were given a little bit of training,
06:49 um,
06:50 but they read to young people in the evening,
06:54 in community centers,
06:55 and,
06:56 you know,
06:56 other such locations that young people could reach.
06:59 The government of Tamil Nadu decided to do a baseline
07:02 and measure how much the kids knew,
07:04 and then they did a follow up,
07:05 um,
07:06 I won't go into the methodology,
07:08 but it looks like
07:09 using these high school graduates to whom you're
07:12 paying a relatively small sum of money.
07:15 And,
07:15 and,
07:16 and getting them to do extra instruction
07:20 post
07:21 school hours,
07:22 so you're not relying on the teachers in school.
07:25 Did allow the kids to recover in over a 6 month period,
07:28 about 2/3 of what they had lost,
07:32 uh,
07:32 in terms of reading proficiency during COVID.
07:36 Now,
07:36 um,
07:36 this is something you can do if you
07:38 are a relatively well organized provincial government,
07:41 you have,
07:42 you know,
07:42 some amount of civic awareness.
07:44 You have a large number of high school graduates without
07:46 a job and who wouldn't mind receiving a stipend and,
07:49 and can,
07:49 you know,
07:50 have the enthusiasm to read to young.
07:52 Kids,
07:53 so I think there are things that can be done
07:55 that would remediate losses,
07:58 which are not terribly costly in terms of financial resources.
08:02 I think they do require political will and organizational ability,
08:06 and I'm not putting a price on that.
08:09 Now,
08:09 um,
08:10 you asked this other question about the other factors that impact learning,
08:14 right?
08:14 Things like air pollution,
08:17 um,
08:17 uh,
08:18 the quality of,
08:19 of water and soil,
08:21 uh,
08:21 and,
08:22 uh,
08:23 and you know,
08:23 how do you,
08:24 do you invest in that,
08:25 or do you invest in,
08:27 you know,
08:27 what what's going on in school?
08:29 Um,
08:30 that's how I'm interpreting your question.
08:32 And um one of the things we're doing is we are writing a
08:35 new report where we are trying to look at this broader set of issues
08:40 that impact human capital outcomes,
08:43 um,
08:44 uh,
08:45 and
08:46 there's a,
08:46 there's an explosion in literature
08:49 in the past 20 years on this broader set of issues
08:52 and um
08:53 uh there are things that happen in the home.
08:56 There are things that happen in the neighborhood,
08:59 and there are things that happen in the workplace,
09:02 all of which are important for human capital outcomes.
09:05 And what this literature shows is that the effects are causal,
09:09 and they can be large.
09:11 Depending on the context,
09:12 right,
09:12 it's
09:13 lead contamination is not an issue everywhere.
09:16 Michael Kremer did his work on deworming in
09:19 and it showed there was a huge impact because
09:22 worms are a big issue in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and
09:26 and South Asia.
09:27 So what we've done in this report is we've tried to present these
09:31 other
09:32 Factors,
09:33 these settings that are important for human capital outcomes
09:37 and unlike many World Bank reports,
09:40 we don't have the answer,
09:41 but what we say is,
09:43 hey,
09:44 shouldn't shouldn't policymakers be thinking about these other factors
09:48 that have large causal impacts on human capital outcomes.
09:53 And um
09:54 we ask a lot of questions in this report.
09:56 We don't necessarily provide answers,
09:59 but what we're trying to do
10:00 is we're trying to rank
10:02 uh um using uh
10:05 using a traffic light system.
10:08 Depending on your context,
10:09 if you find some of these other factors
10:12 as being very important,
10:14 here's what it is,
10:16 is it very costly?
10:17 Does it require a lot of political will?
10:20 Does it require a lot of organizational capacity?
10:23 So it then allows policymakers to make their
10:25 own decisions about what they would emphasize,
10:29 depending on their context and,
10:31 and,
10:31 and depending on what they find and whether
10:33 they have the organizational ability and so on.
10:35 Um,
10:36 let me just give you,
10:37 let me just give you one example,
10:38 which is really causing us to do a lot of rethinking,
10:42 uh,
10:42 of the work we do at the World Bank.
10:45 Let me take you to the situation of the home
10:47 and
10:48 cognitive development of children.
10:50 Now,
10:51 you might say,
10:51 oh,
10:51 Mamta,
10:51 this is old hat.
10:52 We've known for the longest time,
10:54 the 1st 1000 days is really important.
10:56 This is why we have maternal and child health programs,
10:59 and,
11:00 and this is why we've emphasized ECD
11:02 all true.
11:04 But what a lot of the literature shows is
11:06 that in addition to whether your kid is born healthy
11:11 and has good nutrition,
11:13 Cognitive stimulation really matters.
11:16 It really matters how you talk to your kid.
11:19 It really matters,
11:20 uh,
11:20 whether you read to your kid,
11:22 because,
11:23 you know,
11:23 it,
11:23 it's surprising,
11:25 but,
11:25 but literacy is built really early.
11:28 It's built
11:29 even as you're sort of babbling as a child,
11:32 even as you're,
11:32 you're beginning to just sort of recognize
11:35 things around you.
11:36 Um,
11:37 so
11:38 if,
11:38 if that's the case,
11:40 why is it that we,
11:42 uh,
11:42 I'm not saying we shouldn't pay attention to preschool.
11:44 I'm not saying we shouldn't pay attention to foundational learning.
11:48 Why is it that we've given so little thought to how parents are
11:51 interacting with children?
11:53 Why is this not,
11:54 why is this not part of the
11:56 The
11:57 public policy lexicon
11:59 in a way that it should be.
12:00 So,
12:01 so that's the question,
12:02 the kind of question that this report will ask.
12:05 Similarly,
12:05 it will ask questions about quality of air and,
12:08 and,
12:08 and soil.
12:09 And by the way,
12:10 I was shocked when I looked at these
12:12 studies that show the huge impact of air pollution
12:16 on,
12:16 on,
12:17 on learning outcomes,
12:19 and,
12:19 and this is not just because schools are closed.
12:23 In many countries when air pollution is high,
12:26 but because air pollution actually affects your ability to learn,
12:30 it actually affects whether your teacher shows up in
12:33 the classroom and is able to give you instruction.
12:36 So,
12:36 um,
12:37 we conclude that there needs to be much more granular understanding.
12:43 about what is determining human capital outcomes in
12:46 your neighborhood or your locality or your ward,
12:49 and this needs to be the subject of public policy.
12:53 I can see I've gone on too long,
12:55 but let me,
12:56 let me quote Bob Zellick,
12:57 who yesterday said something.
12:59 It was the day before yesterday,
13:00 said something very interesting.
13:01 He said,
13:02 we need to get out of our silos and have this horizontal awareness.
13:07 And I think for human capital,
13:08 we need to get out of the silo of education
13:11 or health and have this
13:13 awareness of settings.
13:14 How is the setting,
13:16 the home,
13:16 the neighborhood,
13:17 the workplace,
13:18 determining how much human capital is built.
13:21 I think that's very true.
13:23 In just a moment,
13:23 I'm going to open this up for questions.
13:25 So,
13:25 so get your questions ready and if you're online,
13:28 feel free to put those in and I'll have access to those.
13:30 I think one of the interesting things,
13:31 you know,
13:32 you highlighted this role of,
13:33 you know,
13:33 what parents do with kids in their early years,
13:35 there's this wonderful book chapter by
13:38 human development chief economist here at the at the World Bank,
13:42 Norbert Shatty.
13:43 And Carrida Araujo at the IDB and others
13:46 showing how
13:47 a fabulous program in Jamaica
13:50 that dramatically improved how parents interact with their children.
13:53 When there were efforts to scale that up in Colombia,
13:56 in Peru,
13:58 had dramatically lower impacts,
14:00 not zero,
14:00 but much,
14:01 much lower impacts,
14:02 and I think
14:03 one of the big challenges is with programs where we don't have systems
14:07 like schools or health centers where we have kind of existing systems to deliver.
14:13 Sometimes the systems work,
14:14 sometimes they don't,
14:15 but how we do that um at scale.
14:18 I think that's a great point.
14:19 We have to think about scalability and not about very small,
14:23 very small interventions,
14:25 but here's,
14:26 let me expand a little bit about why this is giving us thought,
14:31 giving us pause.
14:32 Um,
14:33 we do a lot of work on social protection.
14:35 Reem yesterday spoke a great deal about that.
14:38 Uh,
14:38 when we do work on social protection,
14:40 we have social workers
14:42 who visit households regularly.
14:45 In our health work,
14:46 we have community healthcare workers who visit um households regularly.
14:51 Is there a case for thinking about how an existing program
14:55 could be done slightly differently,
14:58 um,
14:58 when you have the infrastructure in place,
15:01 and,
15:01 and by the way,
15:02 these are people who are from the community,
15:03 they,
15:04 so it's not like you're bringing in uh uh somebody from the outside and,
15:08 and,
15:09 uh,
15:09 um,
15:10 asking them to,
15:11 to support an intervention.
15:13 It still means it may not work,
15:15 right?
15:15 And the solution to every problem is not a government program.
15:18 I'm looking here straight at In the myth.
15:20 He's very fond of saying this to,
15:22 to,
15:22 to,
15:22 uh,
15:23 those of us who work on these issues,
15:25 but
15:26 Given the size of the effect
15:28 and how important it seems to be,
15:30 and that governments have these programs in place,
15:33 isn't there a case for seeing whether this can scale?
15:36 And,
15:37 and by the way,
15:38 maybe it's going to be most effective in the weakest contexts,
15:41 right,
15:42 where there's really no stimulation happening at home.
15:45 I don't,
15:46 I don't Jamaican.
15:47 might be in that context,
15:50 but I've seen even poorer contexts where it,
15:52 it could make a difference.
15:53 So
15:54 what the report is doing is it's not saying do this,
15:57 it's saying,
15:57 have you thought of this,
15:59 uh,
15:59 and also raising questions about a whole bunch of other things.
16:03 No,
16:03 I think that's really exciting.
16:04 I think the
16:06 the idea of thinking how can we link these two systems.
16:09 There was a Mexico parenting program
16:12 that was rolled out in kind of a standard
16:14 just,
16:14 hey,
16:15 invite parents to these classes.
16:17 Basically nobody showed up.
16:19 And then when it was linked to the
16:22 now defunct Prospera program,
16:23 and we saw from Tom Vogel's presentation,
16:26 some of the impacts of that,
16:27 but when it was linked to that program,
16:29 Everybody showed up because it was linked to an existing
16:32 structure that involved resources and so people had a real incentive
16:36 and you saw the child development impacts follow along.
16:39 I want to open it up.
16:39 Does anybody have questions for uh Mamta?
16:44 I see one
16:49 Great
16:50 We'll take these 3123,
16:53 and then come back.
16:59 Hi,
16:59 good afternoon.
17:01 My question is,
17:02 what creates and sustained political will for human capital investment
17:06 in politically unstable or short-term focused context?
17:13 Um,
17:13 my question is for Doctor,
17:14 uh,
17:15 Miss Mamta.
17:16 I haven't prepped my question properly,
17:18 so I'm just gonna say it the way it's coming to my head.
17:20 So I know you said,
17:21 um,
17:22 parents,
17:22 the way parents interact with their children is very important,
17:25 and I agree,
17:26 but I also agree that it's only to a certain
17:28 amount parents can interact with their children or do.
17:31 Um,
17:32 or teach them certain things because kids are
17:34 always gonna be faced with the outside world.
17:36 So is it fair to say that
17:38 social media,
17:39 AI is also affecting the parents and also affecting the way the parents are
17:43 communicating with their children,
17:45 because
17:45 even if the kids are not on social media,
17:47 the parents are on social media
17:49 and.
17:50 What I'm seeing,
17:51 well,
17:51 from what we see as the youth,
17:53 like
17:53 older generation is picking up on certain languages where
17:57 you meet a 46 year old who's saying something that's
17:59 very trendy on TikTok but they don't have TikTok,
18:01 so it's either coming from the parents or it's coming from the kids at school.
18:05 That's my question.
18:06 Thank you.
18:12 That Moton knows I'm a broken record on aging as Mompton knows.
18:15 Um,
18:16 just in terms of the human capital,
18:17 thinking of a different slice of the population,
18:20 the 50s and 60s.
18:21 This is the first time
18:22 the pop,
18:23 we're just talking about population that we've had
18:25 relatively healthy people in their 50s and 60s,
18:28 1.5 billion people now in their fifties and sixties.
18:32 The IMF World Economic Outlook was at 50,
18:34 50,
18:34 70 is the new 50 in terms of cognitive ability.
18:37 How do we make sure we make that group of people?
18:41 How do we use that human capital that we've never had before?
18:44 How do we make sure we use that as productively as possible?
18:48 All right,
18:48 let's go ahead and take those 3.
18:50 Mamta,
18:50 3 easy questions.
18:51 How do we get the will for human capital investment?
18:54 How do we think about social media and
18:57 how kids are interacting with that,
18:58 what the impacts of that are for human capital,
19:00 and then
19:01 how do we use this new resource,
19:02 if you will.
19:05 So,
19:05 um,
19:06 on this question about political will for human capital,
19:08 I,
19:09 I think,
19:09 um,
19:11 All the evidence I know
19:13 suggests that it's such an important part of
19:16 um uh
19:18 economic growth
19:19 that
19:20 I actually don't find it hard to make the case to ministers of finance,
19:24 right?
19:24 And I,
19:25 and I think it was the gentleman from
19:26 the Migration Policy Institute who said it's so important
19:29 to be talking about to the ministries of finance
19:32 because they are the ones who are tasked with
19:34 thinking ahead
19:35 while balancing the budget today,
19:37 right?
19:38 And,
19:38 um,
19:39 uh,
19:39 2/3,
19:40 uh,
19:41 I,
19:41 I,
19:42 I,
19:42 I'm very happy,
19:45 I often use this figure,
19:46 so I'm going to use it again,
19:48 um,
19:48 you know,
19:49 anything between 1/3 to 2/3 of the difference in per capita income
19:54 across countries
19:55 can be attributed to human capital.
19:58 So if you're not investing in it,
20:00 I just don't see how you're going to grow,
20:03 and ultimately every country that I've worked on wants to become a rich country.
20:08 So I,
20:08 I,
20:09 that's the case that I think that can be made,
20:12 but that's just base one,
20:14 right?
20:14 The big problem is,
20:15 well,
20:16 where do we spend,
20:18 assuming that you have the money to spend,
20:20 right?
20:21 Um,
20:21 and where do we spend is a really important question,
20:24 because actually the outcomes that
20:28 many if not most countries get for the money that they spend is appallingly poor.
20:33 So I think one can't,
20:35 one has,
20:36 even as you make the case,
20:37 you really have to be making the case for how the money can be spent well
20:42 and and you know,
20:43 there are lots of things that that that there are
20:45 lots of ways in which countries spend money very poorly.
20:48 We,
20:49 we had the discussion yesterday,
20:51 right,
20:52 where Shanta.
20:54 about all the teachers who are not present or in the classroom and,
20:58 and,
20:58 and uh
21:00 and and so on,
21:01 right?
21:01 Or you know,
21:02 the or the population of the country is not even
21:06 checking how the money is spent,
21:08 and a lot of it might just be
21:10 lost in the form of leakage.
21:11 So I think we have to make the case for human capital.
21:14 but also demonstrate ways in which the money can be,
21:18 can be well spent.
21:19 Um,
21:20 I have a,
21:21 I have a pet peeve,
21:22 and I'm I'm going to repeat it here.
21:25 I'm very struck by the fact that
21:27 many developing countries spend a lot on education,
21:30 it can be anything
21:32 between 3 to 5% of GDP.
21:34 They actually spend very little on health.
21:37 It's typically between 1 and 3% of GDP,
21:40 and so out of pocket spending on health is typically very high.
21:44 And you know,
21:45 I,
21:46 to me,
21:46 to me,
21:47 it just seems these things need to go together.
21:50 It just seems wrong that there is this,
21:51 this,
21:52 there's this imbalance.
21:53 It's almost as if there's this belief
21:55 that,
21:56 that,
21:57 that education will solve it all,
21:59 or it could be that teachers are very useful at the
22:02 local level to win elections and community health workers are not,
22:06 right?
22:06 But
22:06 so there may be various reasons,
22:08 but it's very striking that there is a bit of an imbalance there.
22:12 Um,
22:14 On this question about parents doing it all,
22:17 no,
22:17 parents can't do it all,
22:18 but,
22:19 but
22:20 if the,
22:21 if you believe the studies,
22:22 there's a huge impact
22:24 in terms of cognitive development
22:27 of the kid,
22:27 which persists over time,
22:29 depending on
22:30 what happens when the,
22:32 when the,
22:33 in the very early days,
22:35 right?
22:35 I'm talking within the first year or two.
22:38 Um,
22:39 now,
22:39 kids may go on and be saying things and doing
22:42 things which are influenced by social media and AI,
22:45 and
22:46 there's no denying that,
22:47 but
22:48 you're,
22:48 you're building something,
22:49 you're wiring something in the brain
22:52 in those early days,
22:54 and of course it's about the income of the household,
22:57 and of course it's about
22:58 nourishment,
22:59 but it's also about cognitive stimulation.
23:02 And,
23:03 and it doesn't require,
23:04 you don't have to be a PhD to do the things that
23:07 that really stimulate the child and help brain growth and development,
23:12 and,
23:12 and that has to come from a parent or a caregiver,
23:15 and,
23:15 and that's what,
23:16 that's what the studies show.
23:18 Now I want to say a word about AI because uh one of the
23:23 things that we have been excited about at the World Bank is that.
23:26 Um,
23:27 uh,
23:28 in addition to causing the,
23:30 we can discuss what the impact of AI is going to be on the labor market,
23:34 but it is beginning to be used,
23:36 uh,
23:36 to improve learning
23:38 in,
23:39 in schools.
23:40 It's helping coach teachers,
23:42 and it's helping kids with more personalized instruction.
23:45 And this is not in high income settings alone,
23:48 you know,
23:48 this is happening in Nigeria.
23:50 This is happening in in Peru,
23:53 of course,
23:53 a school needs electricity,
23:56 it needs the internet.
23:58 People need devices,
23:59 the teacher needs to be in the classroom,
24:01 but when you have those,
24:02 and,
24:02 and you have those in many parts of the world,
24:05 not all parts of the world.
24:07 It can actually be a tool for improving learning outcomes.
24:11 So there's that very exciting part of,
24:13 of AI that um I don't want to forget mentioning,
24:17 uh,
24:17 actually,
24:18 it's just Microsoft co-pilot.
24:20 It's not even some customized thing.
24:22 Microsoft co-pilot can
24:24 coach a teacher
24:26 on the mistakes that she is making
24:28 or he is making,
24:29 um,
24:30 uh,
24:30 because many teachers in developing countries are men and not women.
24:34 Um,
24:35 uh,
24:35 it can also help a kid
24:37 in terms of helping them,
24:39 you know,
24:39 meeting them where they are,
24:41 giving them a little bit of that personalized instruction that,
24:44 that allows them to improve because learning is cumulative,
24:47 right?
24:48 Um.
24:49 The the aging question and how do we use this cohort of,
24:53 of,
24:53 I don't know,
24:53 45 to 60 year olds who are,
24:56 who are very good and are in the labor force.
25:00 Well,
25:00 um,
25:00 I would just say two things.
25:02 One is that in,
25:03 in our report,
25:04 one of the things that we point to
25:06 is that a lot of human capital is built in the workplace.
25:10 And by having so many people who are working in the informal sector,
25:14 working in small firms who are not using technology,
25:17 you,
25:18 you're actually hampering
25:20 the ability of people to
25:22 learn on the job and and and and to contribute more.
25:25 So,
25:26 so we are often used to thinking about,
25:28 you know,
25:28 firm growth and growth of.
25:30 Small firms to medium and large size firms as a way of employing people,
25:35 but in this report we think of firm growth as a way of educating people,
25:39 of making them more skilled and more able to contribute to their to their economy.
25:44 So,
25:45 so that's one thing I would say that we really need to think about the
25:48 private sector and firm growth dimension.
25:51 Uh,
25:52 of things which we don't tend to do,
25:54 we,
25:54 we tend to think of,
25:55 you know,
25:56 labor supply is something that's there and,
25:58 and might grow a little bit over time and then declines.
26:00 We never think of the role of firms and actually,
26:03 uh,
26:04 incentivizing
26:07 um,
26:08 improvements in human capital.
26:09 The second thing I would talk about is lifelong learning.
26:12 Lifelong learning systems
26:14 are really weak or non-existent in developing countries.
26:19 This is very striking
26:21 to me.
26:22 If you think of AI and how it's going to transform the way jobs are done,
26:28 people,
26:28 people do need
26:30 to have the means of learning how to do new things.
26:33 Obviously,
26:33 there's a flow aspect.
26:35 You,
26:35 you're better at learning how to do new things if that's something that you have,
26:39 uh,
26:39 you have the ability to do.
26:40 So
26:41 it's your foundational learning,
26:43 but you also need to have the,
26:45 the,
26:45 the means to learn about new technologies to be able to move from,
26:49 from one sort of to move up the ladder,
26:51 right,
26:51 even in your.
26:52 Occupation or move to a new occupation
26:56 and that's the thing that worries me.
26:57 I was,
26:57 it was very good to hear the example of the Philippines with this,
27:01 this private sector which seems to be able to
27:03 expand to give people the opportunity to learn things,
27:06 but
27:07 I don't think that's common everywhere,
27:10 and that's something we need to think about.
27:13 So,
27:13 uh,
27:14 before we wrap up,
27:15 so one,
27:16 I wouldn't mind just pushing back a little bit on the point about,
27:21 for example,
27:21 thinking about equal,
27:23 thinking about differentials between health spending and education spending.
27:26 So I would think
27:27 that we wouldn't necessarily think,
27:29 you know,
27:29 if we spend more on education,
27:31 it
27:32 doesn't mean we value education more or necessarily that there's political,
27:35 like a political
27:36 means to it,
27:37 which there I think often is,
27:38 but.
27:39 Um,
27:40 I mean,
27:40 I would think about,
27:41 well,
27:41 what's the cost of service delivery and where
27:43 are we getting the highest value return.
27:45 So conceivably one could imagine that you could value both equally,
27:49 but still it would make sense to spend twice as much on health
27:52 or half as much on health,
27:54 but it wouldn't necessarily,
27:55 it just depends on how much value you're getting from the marginal
27:58 sort of dollar and services,
27:59 and I'll,
28:00 you're welcome to respond to that,
28:01 but just
28:02 I want to give you,
28:03 you know,
28:03 this conference is,
28:04 you know,
28:05 development in the age of populism.
28:06 A lot of countries seem to be turning inward.
28:09 And so just a final word from you about how do we make the case.
28:14 You said it's easy to make the relatively easy to make the case.
28:16 I'd agree.
28:17 15 years ago the Economic Growth Commission
28:20 here,
28:20 you know,
28:21 chaired here at the World Bank,
28:22 said there is no
28:24 example of a sustained period of economic growth
28:28 without broad-based investments in human capital.
28:31 It just doesn't exist.
28:32 You can find little bursts,
28:33 mostly driven by resource,
28:35 you know,
28:35 people finding oil,
28:37 but,
28:38 but it doesn't endure.
28:40 But,
28:40 uh,
28:40 but clearly there are some governments that
28:42 aren't listening to that case these days,
28:45 especially international donors.
28:46 And so,
28:48 is there something we need to change about how we talk about,
28:50 uh,
28:51 human capital,
28:52 uh,
28:52 to make that case uh more strongly.
28:55 Last word.
28:56 Um,
28:57 so,
28:59 I think there's always been an element of um
29:06 appealing to the self-interest of the donor.
29:09 In making the case for aid.
29:11 It may not be overt,
29:13 but it's always been there,
29:15 um,
29:16 so,
29:16 and we're good at doing this.
29:18 I mean this is how the case has been made for aid,
29:22 uh,
29:22 for the longest time.
29:23 Um,
29:24 so
29:26 I think one has to,
29:27 uh,
29:27 and you know,
29:28 this might be a different moment,
29:29 although I think questions about aid have been there for the longest time,
29:32 right?
29:33 Uh,
29:34 uh,
29:34 um,
29:35 so I think one has to appeal to the interest of the of the donor,
29:40 the self-interest of the donor.
29:42 I think there's a very strong case,
29:44 very strong economic case that
29:46 can be made,
29:48 um,
29:48 it's helpful to the donor
29:51 if there is economic growth in other parts of the country,
29:54 other parts of the world.
29:55 It helps with markets,
29:57 and we just talked about migration,
29:59 right?
30:00 Um,
30:02 there's concern about the
30:06 illegal flows,
30:07 there's concern about asylum seeking.
30:09 Well,
30:09 if there were.
30:10 Opportunities,
30:11 I think you could make the case that if
30:12 there are opportunities in other parts of the world,
30:15 you would see,
30:15 you would see less of this.
30:17 Um,
30:18 now,
30:18 some people shy away with making the self-interest case,
30:23 um,
30:23 but I think,
30:24 I think it's possible to strike that balance between
30:27 making the case based on the donor's self-interest,
30:31 and yet having a conversation that is,
30:35 is broader.
30:36 It doesn't have to be one or the other.
30:40 Again,
30:40 I want to go back to what Bob Zellick said,
30:42 which I,
30:43 which struck me,
30:44 and he said that,
30:45 well,
30:45 look,
30:45 multilateral institutions such as the World Bank are a
30:48 place where you can have the interests of many different
30:53 Different
30:54 shareholders discussed,
30:56 right?
30:56 So I,
30:57 I feel we could,
30:58 we could
30:59 have a conversation about aid
31:01 which,
31:01 which speaks to the,
31:03 to the self-interest of donors and and at the same time speaks to the needs of,
31:07 of developing countries.
31:08 So I,
31:08 I,
31:09 I don't think this is an either or it can be done
31:13 um.
31:14 At the same time,
31:16 I think it's
31:18 the,
31:18 the performance of the development agency really matters.
31:22 One of the reasons why people don't like
31:27 development assistance is because they say,
31:29 well,
31:29 these development agencies don't do anything.
31:32 They're bureaucratic.
31:33 They are
31:34 over dimensioned.
31:36 They're not transparent,
31:38 so we could do a lot on that front too.
31:40 That's another way of making the case for development assistance.
31:44 We could
31:45 be more transparent about what we do.
31:48 We could talk much more about results and impact.
31:52 I know that it's very hard to measure productivity in the public sector,
31:56 so it's,
31:57 it's hard to talk about performance,
31:59 but,
31:59 but surely with all these minds in the room,
32:02 we can get better at doing that and
32:05 actually we have to get better at doing that.
32:08 Um,
32:08 we should also talk about
32:10 uh results and,
32:11 and,
32:11 and what we achieve and,
32:13 and,
32:13 uh,
32:14 and that again requires some careful thinking,
32:16 right?
32:17 It's not,
32:17 it's not a straightforward exercise,
32:19 uh.
32:20 Um,
32:21 and,
32:21 and we could,
32:22 we could do much better at doing that.
32:24 Um,
32:24 finally,
32:25 I,
32:25 I think the,
32:26 the data that
32:28 that Chala put up was so,
32:30 was so compelling.
32:31 I think we have to talk about the fact that we are living in a world where,
32:34 uh,
32:35 um,
32:36 you know,
32:37 pop,
32:38 we can talk about many crises,
32:39 right,
32:40 conflicts,
32:40 climate,
32:41 and so on,
32:41 but,
32:42 um,
32:42 we're talking about a world where most of the growth in population is
32:45 going to happen in sub-Saharan Africa and a little bit in South Asia.
32:49 Um,
32:49 and these are the parts where,
32:51 uh,
32:52 that the,
32:54 you know,
32:54 7 out of 10 kids
32:57 cannot read with comprehension at age 10,
33:00 a paragraph in their mother tongue.
33:02 That's a big issue.
33:04 It's such a big global issue,
33:06 right?
33:06 And,
33:06 and,
33:07 and,
33:07 um,
33:08 you know,
33:08 if we,
33:09 if we're thinking long term,
33:10 like many ministries of finance are doing in,
33:13 in developing.
33:14 Countries this is something that they should be thinking about right?
33:18 um so I I I I I think by by appealing to self-interest
33:22 talking about some of the big challenges that everybody has to be concerned about
33:28 you'll notice that I didn't talk about pandemic preparedness,
33:30 which is something we could,
33:32 we could talk at great length about having just come out of COVID
33:35 how are we going to respond to something like that if we,
33:37 if we're not thinking about it collectively.
33:40 And finally,
33:41 by improving our own performance and being transparent about what we,
33:44 you know,
33:45 what we do and what results we have,
33:47 I think we can,
33:48 we can make a good case.
33:50 Thank you so much,
33:51 Mom.
33:52 I'd like to invite everybody to give a hand to Momta
33:56 Murthy,
33:56 Vice President of People.
33:58 If you need a job at the World Bank,
34:00 you know who to reach out to.
34:02 Um,
34:03 no,
34:03 thank you so much,
34:04 and we'll invite
34:06 Ihani to come back and tell us what's next.
34:13 Thank you.
34:14 Um,
34:14 we are done with scheduled programming in the week.
34:17 I think you'd like to close us out.
34:19 Uh,
34:19 thank you so much,
34:20 David Mam.
34:30 Uh,
34:31 so I have this,
34:32 uh,
34:33 short,
34:33 pleasant,
34:34 but papa,
34:35 a very important task to actually thank all the people
34:39 who have made this happen.
34:41 Uh,
34:41 before that,
34:42 the thought that struck me as Mamta was speaking,
34:45 I was looking at a topic which is development in the age of populism,
34:49 and I was thinking,
34:50 Mamta,
34:50 that maybe.
34:52 We need to think about this balance between
34:55 global public goods and national public goods,
34:58 you know,
34:59 and when I think about national public goods,
35:02 I can't think of a more important one than human capital
35:05 because it has these massive externalities on the health side
35:08 as well as on the skills and education side and so on,
35:12 and I think that at the time when we are talking about a shift also in the way that
35:17 Uh,
35:18 the way the development agencies work,
35:20 the shift from,
35:21 uh,
35:21 the shift from essentially aid
35:24 to,
35:24 uh,
35:25 to essentially development finance and trade and
35:28 investment and migration flows and so on.
35:31 I think that,
35:31 I think that one has to sort of think whether or not we've got this balance right,
35:35 and I think over the last few years,
35:36 maybe we didn't,
35:37 you know.
35:38 And
35:40 and so we need to correct all of that,
35:42 but
35:44 we need to think about all of that stuff.
35:46 I really enjoyed this conference and normally when you host something.
35:50 You don't enjoy it because you're very,
35:52 uh,
35:53 you are quite tense about it and so on,
35:55 but the team
35:56 that has put this together just took away all of the worry from me and from the others.
36:02 So I want to thank them.
36:03 So first,
36:04 the first group of people I want to thank are
36:06 the people from the LKY School of Public Policy,
36:09 especially Danny Kwa.
36:11 The second group.
36:16 The second group I want to thank are
36:18 the people from the Center for Global Development,
36:21 uh,
36:22 and I'd like to thank Mark Plant,
36:25 Marcus Goldstein,
36:27 Uh,
36:27 Janet Hodder,
36:29 Shannon Hutchins,
36:30 Tara Brigham,
36:32 Valencia Meredith,
36:33 Stephanie Donahue,
36:35 Eva Bianco,
36:36 and especially Shani Kanpal.
36:42 And then,
36:43 and then from the World Bank Group,
36:44 I'd like to thank
36:46 uh Joe Rebelo,
36:48 Indu Kilaru,
36:49 uh,
36:50 Lisette Romo,
36:51 Gerro Carletto,
36:53 Carolina Ordon,
36:55 uh,
36:55 Kristen Mulholland,
36:58 Mariaia
36:59 Losi,
37:00 Punt Jinalat,
37:02 Gurav Nair,
37:03 Carolyn Fisher,
37:05 Assem Kalinova,
37:07 and especially Kenan Karakula.
37:14 And finally,
37:15 I'd like to thank all of you because you could have all of these things.
37:19 You could have this great party,
37:20 and if nobody came,
37:22 it would be a terrible party.
37:23 So thank you very much with your eyes and your expressions and your questions.
37:27 You really made this conference a big success.
37:29 Thank you so much.
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A video recording of closing remarks and fireside chat between David Evans and Mamta Murthi on Day 4 of The Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics 2025 "Development in the Age of Populism." The session discusses "Presentation of Human Development Flagship Report".
SPEAKERS:
Mamta Murthi, Vice President, People Vice Presidency at the World Bank
David Evans, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development