00:00 So the second session is gonna focus on,
00:02 on human capital and what we've learned over the years and how the,
00:06 how the conceptualization of
00:09 What human capital is and
00:12 um how it's how it's created and how public
00:14 policy can help create it has evolved over time.
00:17 And,
00:18 uh,
00:18 we're gonna have two,
00:19 presenters again,
00:21 uh,
00:21 Kathleen Beagle,
00:22 uh,
00:23 who's the Research Manager and lead,
00:24 and lead economist in the human development
00:26 team of the Development Research Group,
00:29 who's here in person,
00:30 and then we're gonna have Patrick Premont online,
00:33 um,
00:33 a senior economist,
00:34 uh,
00:34 in the DM.
00:36 Uh,
00:37 group,
00:37 the development impact evaluation group,
00:39 uh,
00:39 uh,
00:40 here at the bank.
00:41 Um,
00:41 so you're gonna start,
00:42 how,
00:42 how long are you gonna speak for?
00:43 Uh,
00:44 about 1010 minutes.
00:45 OK,
00:45 OK.
00:46 And I'm gonna be stricter this time.
00:49 Thanks.
00:54 This is on,
00:54 right?
00:55 Now it's on.
00:56 OK.
00:57 Good morning.
00:57 Thank you for coming to everyone online.
00:59 Thank you for attending.
01:01 Um,
01:01 I'm pleased to give the first half of
01:03 this presentation on behalf of myself and Patrick,
01:06 uh,
01:06 and then I'll hand it over to him,
01:08 who is,
01:08 uh,
01:09 uh,
01:10 currently not in DC,
01:11 so he'll join us by video.
01:13 OK.
01:14 So,
01:14 you know,
01:14 taking a very quick
01:17 step back and asking,
01:18 like,
01:18 where are we today,
01:19 before jumping into
01:21 what we've learned from research,
01:22 um,
01:24 you know,
01:24 we want to make a few kind of very quick observations.
01:26 Um,
01:28 and let me premise this by saying,
01:29 the topic of this talk,
01:31 I think like with the last talk,
01:32 is quite overwhelming and all encompassing.
01:35 So,
01:35 struggling to figure out what to prioritize in 25
01:38 minutes was a challenge for me and for Patrick.
01:41 Uh,
01:41 so hopefully we,
01:42 we hit the,
01:43 the big spots for you,
01:44 but I think
01:45 there are a lot of areas that will be nice to hear discussion
01:48 during the panel from the panelists because we don't cover nearly everything.
01:52 Um,
01:52 but first we want to kind of remark on
01:54 the incredible progress in education as measured by,
01:58 uh,
01:58 enrollment numbers in these figures,
02:00 but also reflected in attainment and other
02:02 measures of education progress.
02:04 Um,
02:05 immense progress in the last couple of decades,
02:08 uh,
02:08 a lot of catching.
02:09 Up by lagging regions,
02:10 um,
02:11 what we don't show you here today is also on the gender side that girls have caught up
02:15 in enrollment
02:17 and attainment and in fact now in middle and high income countries,
02:21 and most of them girls are,
02:22 uh,
02:23 exceeding boys in terms of educational attainment.
02:26 And so where we have lagging er gender gaps are in um
02:30 low income countries,
02:31 and in fact in many countries the discussion now
02:33 is how to address the boy disadvantage in education.
02:36 So a lot has changed in the last few decades.
02:40 Uh,
02:40 we've also seen a lot of progress in health.
02:42 Here we have figures on maternal mortality rates,
02:45 but also a comparison of,
02:47 uh,
02:47 looking at the
02:49 universal health coverage index and improvements in that,
02:53 as well as,
02:53 uh,
02:54 improvements in the rate of out of
02:55 pocket expenditure that households have to take on
02:59 to attain healthcare services.
03:03 Of course,
03:04 there are a lot of challenges still at play and some of
03:07 these will be reflected in the future graphs in this presentation.
03:10 Uh,
03:11 we know that learning is very different than enrollment.
03:14 So here we have some statistics on the fraction of primary students
03:19 who are meeting minimum proficiency thresholds in math.
03:24 By income country grouping
03:26 and what you'll notice is uh
03:29 lower income countries,
03:30 far right,
03:31 light blue,
03:32 have the lowest shares of primary students who are proficient in math
03:37 for the grade that they are attending,
03:39 and we will also return to this challenge in a moment on the measurement side.
03:44 And in health,
03:45 er,
03:46 we've seen an increase in
03:48 coverage and the provision of healthcare services down to the community level,
03:52 even.
03:53 But we know that in low-income countries,
03:55 in particular,
03:56 health centers lack structural capacity.
03:59 This is equipment,
04:01 machinery,
04:01 medicines
04:03 to provide quality service delivery.
04:05 And here we have results from
04:07 5 countries on the percent of facilities
04:10 with an item
04:11 in stock
04:12 on the day of the survey,
04:14 and you'll notice that in some countries,
04:15 the coverage rates are very low.
04:18 Uh,
04:18 but even in the best performing countries,
04:20 it's,
04:20 you know,
04:21 it can be on the order of,
04:22 uh,
04:22 25% of facilities who do not have
04:25 particular types of equipment
04:27 that are standard for these,
04:28 that,
04:28 that are standards for these health centers.
04:33 Uh,
04:33 and
04:34 very recently we've seen
04:36 COVID be a huge disruptor
04:38 both for education and health.
04:41 And here we just have two figures to,
04:43 uh,
04:44 display this fact.
04:46 On the left you have,
04:47 uh,
04:47 simulations of the decline in learning
04:51 that's taking place
04:52 due to school closures.
04:54 Uh,
04:54 and on the right we see,
04:56 uh,
04:56 tracking the utilization of services during the epidemic.
05:00 We see
05:01 big declines in some countries on the use of
05:04 maternal and child healthcare services
05:06 during,
05:07 ah,
05:07 the COVID pandemic.
05:10 In this presentation,
05:12 we want to talk,
05:13 we're gonna bundle it into,
05:14 uh,
05:14 we're broke it up into three parts.
05:16 First,
05:17 I'm gonna walk you through
05:18 features some innovations in measurements of human capital.
05:22 We talked a lot in the last presentation about the importance
05:25 of data and concepts of measurement and methods of data collection,
05:29 uh,
05:29 for poverty and inequality,
05:30 and we will reflect on that
05:32 as it pertains to human capital.
05:35 And some of the things that we've seen,
05:36 the trends we've seen in the last
05:38 10 to 15 years that have improved the data,
05:41 uh,
05:42 the data landscape in terms of concepts of related to measurement.
05:46 Uh,
05:46 Patrick will walk you through a select set
05:49 of evidence areas on policy interventions in area,
05:53 in areas related to human capital.
05:55 And then we want to kickstart a discussion.
05:57 We threw out some areas that we think
05:59 are research priority areas moving forward.
06:03 Uh,
06:03 one big caveat is the focus of this presentation is on
06:07 children and young people,
06:08 but human capital,
06:09 and I,
06:10 and I've,
06:10 uh,
06:11 borrowed this figure from colleagues in human development,
06:15 a forthcoming
06:16 COVID,
06:17 uh,
06:17 human capital report by the
06:19 Human Development chief economist,
06:20 Norbitcheid and his
06:22 fantastic colleagues.
06:23 But to demonstrate that human capital is a lifelong process,
06:27 so we could have as well
06:29 had a presentation that focused on working age adults
06:32 or older people,
06:33 but
06:33 because of time,
06:34 we're going to focus on
06:36 young,
06:36 young adult,
06:37 young children,
06:38 children and young.
06:40 Adolescents,
06:40 I would say.
06:42 OK,
06:43 let's talk about measurement.
06:44 Uh,
06:44 people that know me know I'm a real data nerd,
06:46 so,
06:47 you were not gonna hear,
06:49 not gonna not hear about measurement in this presentation.
06:52 So a few highlights on the measurement side.
06:54 We know
06:56 that
06:56 schooling is not the same as learning,
06:59 and we've seen
07:00 a huge transition,
07:01 I would say,
07:02 uh,
07:02 which is featured in our world development report on education 2020 led by
07:07 DM Filmer and others,
07:09 um,
07:09 in terms of thinking seriously
07:12 about moving away from.
07:14 Enrollment and attainment
07:15 as
07:17 the only measures of educational outcomes happening.
07:20 Here we have a figure on the concept of learning adjusted
07:23 years of schooling,
07:24 lays.
07:25 You can read a lot more about this in the World Development Report.
07:28 But the point is there when you adjust
07:32 years of schooling
07:33 by the quality of that schooling as reflected in test score data.
07:38 Uh,
07:39 learning adjusted years are much lower in some countries,
07:43 and there's a huge amount of variation as to how much lower they are.
07:46 So,
07:46 you,
07:47 and there are a lot of details underlying this calculation.
07:50 You can use different,
07:52 different benchmarks for this calculation,
07:53 but the bottom line is,
07:55 in many countries,
07:56 the quality of education
07:58 is translating into lower levels of learning
08:01 that may be hidden by just looking at attainment or enrollment.
08:05 Other measures of this include,
08:06 or other achievements in the measurement of
08:08 this include the harmonized learning outcomes uh work
08:12 uh that KCP has also supported.
08:15 A second sphere of a real change in how we think about measuring human capital
08:19 is an increased use of the concept of
08:22 social-emotional skills and measuring that when we do,
08:25 uh,
08:26 studies on human capital.
08:27 And here I'm,
08:29 Highlighting the step skills measurement surveys
08:32 that the bank kickstarted about 15,
08:34 maybe more than 15 years ago,
08:36 um,
08:37 which looks at various dimensions of
08:39 social-emotional skills on the non-cognitive side
08:42 of human capital development.
08:44 Um,
08:45 among them include,
08:46 for example,
08:46 concepts of grit,
08:48 decision making,
08:49 um,
08:49 big five measures.
08:51 And what you see on the right-hand side is
08:53 what was interesting about the SEP skills measurement program
08:56 is that it went forward in a number
08:58 of countries to try to consistently measure this concept
09:01 and look at how these measures of
09:03 socio-emotional skills relate to performance in school,
09:07 ultimate earning outcomes in the labor market.
09:10 There are,
09:11 there are
09:12 huge challenges with measuring social-emotional skills.
09:15 Among them are.
09:17 Uh,
09:18 so we're seeing a lot of different ways of measuring them,
09:21 but there's a lot of
09:23 problems with the validation of these,
09:26 these scales because they are based on Western populations,
09:29 and I'll give you one example from work that was KCP supported
09:32 that shows when you look at the relationship between a measure of
09:36 consciousness and um
09:38 outcomes,
09:39 predictive outcomes on income.
09:41 What looks very important in the US does not look important in many other countries,
09:45 drawing into question what this measure is actually capturing.
09:49 And then finally,
09:50 I want to talk about reflect on quality of service delivery,
09:53 um,
09:53 starting with the qualitative service delivery surveys that were
09:57 rolled out and then moved into service delivery indicator surveys
10:01 to really kind of capture,
10:03 uh,
10:03 quality of services
10:04 and,
10:05 uh,
10:06 understand constraints to quality of service delivery.
10:09 Here I have,
10:10 uh,
10:10 we're looking at work that looks at
10:12 comparing different ways of measuring teacher effectiveness.
10:15 This is work that Dion and others have produced.
10:18 We also have seen a shift to
10:19 using standardized patients and mystery clients to understand
10:24 uh how providers actually treat patients inside health clinics.
10:27 This is work from India on TB patients,
10:30 looking at the variation of correct reporting depending on the time of day,
10:35 using mystery clients,
10:36 mystery patients.
10:38 And then,
10:39 uh,
10:39 I wanted to also mention in the policy research report
10:42 produced by the,
10:44 by DC,
10:44 by my wonderful colleagues in DC,
10:46 the concept of effective coverage,
10:48 which is a combination of both,
10:50 did a,
10:50 does a patient need
10:52 healthcare?
10:53 Do they go to get healthcare and what is
10:55 the quality of the healthcare service that they get?
10:58 And uh,
10:59 that combination,
11:00 um,
11:01 the idea of
11:02 effective coverage is really focusing on this.
11:05 Case cascade between need,
11:08 coverage,
11:08 and quality.
11:11 And finally,
11:12 we can bring these ideas together into the concept
11:14 of the no do gap in health services.
11:17 So,
11:17 uh,
11:18 we,
11:18 we know that quality of service delivery might be right,
11:21 might be quite low,
11:22 but we often don't know is that constraint on the
11:25 structural side with what equipment is at the center,
11:28 on the knowledge side of the providers,
11:30 or on the translation of that knowledge into the service that they deliver.
11:34 So,
11:34 for example,
11:35 here,
11:35 I have one illustration of.
11:37 The no do gap from work in China,
11:39 colleagues did with KCP support
11:41 that compares what happens when you look at TB treatment
11:45 between what providers would tell you with a vignette,
11:48 a hypothetical case,
11:49 and what happens when you bring in a mystery,
11:52 a mystery patient into that office,
11:54 and big variations.
11:55 So,
11:55 we see in the first two rows,
11:57 in fact,
11:57 they do very well in the vignettes,
11:59 but the actual action at the clinic level is,
12:01 is a much lower performance rate.
12:03 Um,
12:04 I also point you to the policy research report I mentioned a moment ago
12:08 has extensive,
12:09 uh,
12:10 discussion on the node gap also.
12:12 OK,
12:13 now I'm gonna turn it over to Patrick,
12:15 but I'm gonna
12:16 control the slides.
12:17 So,
12:17 hi,
12:17 Patrick.
12:20 Hey,
12:20 Patrick,
12:20 um,
12:21 I can't show you this,
12:22 the,
12:22 the,
12:23 the sign that is 2 minutes.
12:24 I'm really gonna ask you to,
12:25 to monitor your own time if you don't mind and keep it to 15 minutes.
12:29 Thank you so much.
12:30 I'll do my best.
12:31 Uh,
12:31 thank you,
12:32 Kathleen,
12:32 and,
12:32 and thanks everyone for,
12:34 for being here.
12:35 Um,
12:35 so Kathleen has highlighted,
12:37 you know,
12:37 huge improvements in the measurement of human capital.
12:41 Um,
12:41 but together with that in the last 15 years,
12:43 we have seen really a boom,
12:45 uh,
12:46 um,
12:46 in studies looking at the effectiveness of policies to improve human capital,
12:51 uh,
12:51 using many of those same measures.
12:53 So in the next 15 minutes,
12:54 uh,
12:55 what I'll do is I'll share some insight from That research.
12:58 Um,
12:59 but the research for the KCP is really rich
13:01 and so as Kathleen mentioned at the beginning,
13:04 uh,
13:04 it's really impossible to give a comprehensive overview.
13:07 So we have chosen a select set of studies
13:09 to highlight the broad evolution of research and,
13:12 and we hope you find that helpful.
13:14 Uh,
13:14 in doing this,
13:15 we want to highlight the topics we are not gonna discuss,
13:18 uh,
13:18 related to,
13:19 uh,
13:19 early childhood development,
13:21 teacher accountability,
13:22 uh,
13:22 pedagogy,
13:23 or adolescent or reproductive health,
13:26 not because they are not important,
13:27 but just because we,
13:28 we have limited time.
13:29 But we hope we can maybe hear from discussions on this or,
13:31 or engage in the discussion on,
13:33 on broader,
13:34 uh,
13:34 uh,
13:34 on these broader topics.
13:36 Uh,
13:36 we've organized the second part of this presentation,
13:39 uh,
13:40 to,
13:40 um,
13:41 um,
13:41 um,
13:42 start with specific interventions for households on the demand side,
13:45 um,
13:46 and then slowly look at,
13:47 uh,
13:48 interventions on the supply side before moving to broader analysis of,
13:52 of reforms on systems and Markets,
13:54 uh,
13:55 which itself I think highlights a little bit the direction,
13:57 the trajectory where,
13:58 uh,
13:59 the policies have taken over the last,
14:00 uh,
14:00 20 years.
14:02 So,
14:02 uh,
14:02 with this in mind,
14:03 the first,
14:04 um,
14:04 kind of specific,
14:06 uh,
14:06 household level demand site intervention is,
14:08 is cash transfer that has received a lot of attention.
14:11 Um,
14:11 and specifically the PRR reports,
14:14 um,
14:14 supported by KCP on CCTs about 15 years ago was really
14:18 influential in
14:20 laying out the theoretical underpinnings of CCTs
14:23 but also summarizing early impact evidence from,
14:26 uh,
14:26 uh,
14:27 Latin America and the first generation of CCTs.
14:30 Um,
14:30 I think we have learned a lot as CCTs are
14:32 expanding around the world on how to optimize their design
14:35 with a few key insights from the research.
14:38 Uh,
14:38 the first key insight is that
14:40 CCTs can really improve the outcomes on which,
14:43 uh,
14:43 they are conditioned.
14:45 Uh,
14:45 we have seen a lot of this,
14:46 uh,
14:46 on school enrollment and preventive health,
14:49 but also that has been used in other,
14:51 uh,
14:51 domains,
14:52 for instance,
14:53 trying to incentivize,
14:54 um,
14:55 uh,
14:55 safer sexual behaviors to reduce STIs,
14:58 um,
14:58 among other outcomes.
15:00 But the literature also has highlighted trade-offs,
15:03 uh,
15:03 and you can see here on the right,
15:04 a graph that shows that in Malawi,
15:07 uh,
15:07 a CCT was pretty effective at increasing enrollment,
15:11 but that an unconditional cash transfer was more effective
15:14 at delaying the age of marriage.
15:16 And so in a way,
15:18 um,
15:18 when we face this trade-off,
15:20 uh,
15:20 we may,
15:20 or to avoid those trade-offs,
15:22 we may need to combine
15:23 different types of cash transfer modalities in order to
15:26 achieve impact on multiple dimensions of human capital.
15:31 Now,
15:31 the literature uh has also consistently shown
15:34 that there are financial constraints to access,
15:37 um,
15:37 uh,
15:37 in multiple,
15:38 uh,
15:39 uh,
15:39 for schooling but also for,
15:40 uh,
15:41 access to health services.
15:43 Another example of that is in the WDR on learning which Kathleen already mentioned,
15:47 um.
15:48 Um,
15:48 showing that as,
15:49 uh,
15:49 user fees or school fees are removed,
15:52 uh,
15:52 enrollment increased quite substantially,
15:54 um,
15:55 also pointing in the same direction as the literature on scholarship scheme,
15:59 you know,
15:59 pointing to the fact that,
16:01 uh,
16:01 uh,
16:01 demand for services is,
16:02 is sensitive to,
16:03 to,
16:04 to cost.
16:05 But of course,
16:05 we know that addressing financial constraints is not sufficient,
16:08 it's not sufficient for the most vulnerable kids,
16:11 uh,
16:11 and households,
16:12 and also it's not sufficient because it doesn't
16:14 lead to improvements necessarily in learning.
16:18 One of the intervention that has been presented as
16:21 potentially improving both access and learning is school feeding.
16:25 Um,
16:26 there,
16:26 uh,
16:27 recent meta-analysis have shown that school meals can
16:30 increase health and nutrition status,
16:32 in particular,
16:33 if they are complemented by,
16:35 uh,
16:35 micronutrients or,
16:37 uh,
16:37 deworming interventions.
16:39 Um,
16:39 and interestingly,
16:41 also shown that,
16:42 um,
16:42 they can improve learning.
16:44 You see on the right here a graph showing,
16:46 um,
16:46 effect on,
16:47 on learning
16:48 of,
16:48 uh,
16:49 duration of exposure to school,
16:50 school meals in India showing a,
16:52 a substantial positive effects.
16:54 Um,
16:55 but behind this,
16:56 uh,
16:56 there is the research also highlighted the need for,
16:59 uh,
16:59 complementary school inputs in order to achieve these learning ga gains.
17:03 So in a way,
17:04 um,
17:05 in both those dimensions,
17:06 we have seen,
17:07 uh,
17:08 the potential role of complementarities
17:10 being important in human capital formation
17:13 and,
17:13 uh,
17:14 we have ongoing work at DAN in collaboration with the World Food Program,
17:17 uh,
17:17 to try to look at these,
17:19 uh,
17:19 synergies and complementarities in school feeding
17:21 a little bit more consistently.
17:24 In the spirit of thinking about complementarities,
17:27 another key result is that providing inputs alone
17:31 um is not sufficient to improve learning.
17:34 Um,
17:34 and here,
17:35 um,
17:36 results from studies
17:37 on providing textbook or on,
17:40 uh,
17:40 you know,
17:40 providing one laptop per child have been pretty clear in terms of the,
17:43 the limited effects on earnings,
17:45 on learning,
17:46 sorry.
17:47 Um,
17:47 and another example is a KCP study in,
17:49 in Lagos that shows that
17:51 Providing e-readers does not necessarily improve uh um uh learning
17:57 unless um it is,
17:59 um,
17:59 it includes,
18:00 those e-readers includes material from school curriculum
18:04 or compensate for lack of inputs in this case,
18:07 textbooks,
18:08 uh,
18:08 in school.
18:10 There is,
18:10 however,
18:11 uh,
18:11 recent evidence that's a little bit more encouraging on the use of,
18:14 um,
18:15 of technology and,
18:16 um,
18:16 uh,
18:17 uh,
18:17 to,
18:18 to improve learning,
18:19 in particular when software or edutainment,
18:22 uh,
18:22 is designed to uh really be engaging for children and teach,
18:27 uh,
18:27 uh,
18:27 at the level.
18:29 That,
18:29 that they need.
18:30 And so here we have some recent results from
18:32 northern Nigeria that are pretty powerful showing that combining
18:36 aspirational videos for parents
18:39 with literacy apps for um on smartphones for
18:44 children can really boost learning pretty substantially.
18:49 Now,
18:49 moving on to schools,
18:51 um,
18:51 there's been a,
18:52 a huge amount of progress,
18:53 uh,
18:54 over the last decades,
18:55 um,
18:56 due to many of you in the room here that have worked on this topic a lot,
18:59 uh,
18:59 to highlight what are the types of policies that are effective to boost learning
19:04 in school.
19:05 Um,
19:05 Kathleen,
19:06 highlighted the learning crisis among children,
19:09 um,
19:10 but another really striking,
19:11 uh,
19:11 finding is that
19:13 teachers themselves often do not master,
19:15 uh,
19:16 the subjects that they teach.
19:18 Um,
19:18 and you can see here on the,
19:20 the black line on the,
19:21 on the graph shows you.
19:23 Um,
19:23 the effects on,
19:24 uh,
19:25 learning,
19:25 uh,
19:26 among children
19:27 of,
19:27 um,
19:28 um,
19:28 ensuring that teachers that's,
19:30 uh,
19:31 at school
19:31 have themselves,
19:32 uh,
19:33 acquired the level of learning equivalent to the end of primary school,
19:36 and that in itself could,
19:38 uh,
19:38 substantially improve learning
19:40 even more when this is combined,
19:42 uh,
19:42 looking at the dashed line here with
19:44 an increase in time
19:46 spent by teachers teaching.
19:48 Um,
19:49 now,
19:49 that these are two levers,
19:50 uh,
19:51 to,
19:51 to improve,
19:52 uh,
19:52 learning.
19:53 Of course,
19:54 there are others.
19:55 Um,
19:55 we know that,
19:56 uh,
19:56 many teacher training program
19:58 or professional development programs are very far from being optimal
20:03 and that improving this along with,
20:05 uh.
20:06 Pedagogic uh sorry,
20:06 pedagogical approaches,
20:08 um,
20:09 that includes,
20:11 uh,
20:11 structured lesson plans or,
20:13 uh,
20:13 teaching at the child level,
20:15 um,
20:15 can be really,
20:16 uh,
20:17 great investments in boosting learning,
20:18 and this is something maybe,
20:20 uh,
20:20 Rukmini in the discussion may,
20:21 may touch on.
20:24 Um,
20:24 so as mentioned,
20:25 the,
20:25 the time spent by teachers teaching,
20:27 um,
20:27 is low in,
20:28 in many developing countries,
20:30 um,
20:31 but there are really multiple reasons for that.
20:33 Um,
20:33 and I think interestingly,
20:35 when
20:35 teachers are asked,
20:36 um,
20:37 if they think it's OK to be absent,
20:39 many of them here on the left say that they,
20:41 you know,
20:41 it's OK to be absent if the kids in school have
20:44 something to do in their absence or on the right,
20:46 if,
20:47 uh,
20:47 they are absent to do something helpful in their community.
20:50 And so that's kind of um insightful because it shows us that
20:54 um it's,
20:55 you know,
20:55 it's hard to shift
20:57 uh teachers' efforts,
20:58 um,
20:58 incentives,
20:59 financial incentives may help but
21:01 um it may only be part of the solution and other approaches to
21:05 improve accountability,
21:06 uh,
21:07 for instance,
21:07 to scorecard or other interventions may be needed and
21:10 uh again,
21:11 this is something that
21:12 uh Ritva may have a lot more to say,
21:14 uh,
21:14 in the discussion.
21:16 Um,
21:17 related to,
21:18 uh,
21:18 the question of incentives,
21:20 um,
21:21 many,
21:21 uh,
21:22 policies or,
21:22 or interventions have tried to provide grants
21:25 to schools to improve their performance,
21:28 um,
21:28 and we can illustrate some of the opportunities and challenges with
21:31 that from using the data from a study from Indonesia.
21:35 That shows here on the right that um
21:38 performance-based grants to school
21:41 improve student learning in secondary schools,
21:43 so this is column 4 here,
21:45 but uh actually the same grants do not improve
21:49 learning in primary schools and this is the column 2 here on the left.
21:54 Um,
21:55 so this is kind of interesting because it illustrates that,
21:57 um,
21:58 uh,
21:59 the same policy,
22:00 the same type of brand designed a similar way
22:02 in a similar setting actually lead to very different behavioral responses
22:06 in different types of school.
22:08 Um,
22:09 and so kind of illustrates the need to understand the,
22:12 the behavioral response from,
22:14 uh,
22:14 providers when those kind of,
22:16 uh,
22:16 grants are,
22:16 are,
22:17 are,
22:17 are offered
22:18 and kind of ties to a,
22:20 a broader literature with mixed results on the performance incentives.
22:26 Another set of intervention that's uh is trying to,
22:29 to shift behavior
22:30 um is uh the provision of information related to schooling.
22:34 Um,
22:35 and here we are showing you some results from a study in Mozambique,
22:38 uh,
22:39 that shows that providing information to parents about
22:42 your children's attendance in school,
22:44 uh,
22:45 not only increases attendance itself but also
22:48 uh increases learning in this case,
22:50 uh,
22:50 math scores.
22:51 And what's interesting is the mechanism is that it's through parents' behavior,
22:55 through parents basically getting more involved
22:57 in the monitoring of their children,
22:59 uh,
22:59 which in itself then leads to,
23:01 uh,
23:01 them learning,
23:03 uh,
23:03 more in school.
23:04 Uh,
23:04 and similar pathways have been highlighted in other studies,
23:07 for instance,
23:08 in,
23:08 in Angola.
23:10 Of course,
23:10 the provision of information can also
23:12 have broader effects
23:14 on education markets,
23:15 um,
23:16 and also induce,
23:17 uh,
23:18 behavioral responses from,
23:19 uh,
23:19 from providers and so for instance,
23:21 in Pakistan,
23:22 a very influential study showing that,
23:25 uh,
23:25 providing information on the,
23:26 uh,
23:27 on average test scores in school actually leads private providers to reduce fees,
23:32 uh,
23:32 because they don't have to signal
23:33 their quality to,
23:34 uh,
23:35 to fees anymore.
23:37 Um,
23:38 the,
23:39 of course,
23:39 the,
23:39 the analysis of,
23:40 of private school has,
23:42 um,
23:42 um,
23:43 taken a lot of attention in recent years trying to see
23:46 if they can be part of the solution to improve learning.
23:49 Um,
23:49 it has been the case in certain areas.
23:51 Here we show you in Uganda that's,
23:53 uh,
23:53 providing vouchers for students to,
23:56 for,
23:56 for private schools,
23:57 uh,
23:58 actually improve student score pretty consistently.
24:01 Um,
24:02 uh,
24:02 you see the distribution shifting,
24:04 um,
24:04 but behind this,
24:05 there are,
24:06 uh,
24:06 part of this is due to gains in enrollments partly driven from,
24:10 uh,
24:11 students with higher socio-economic backgrounds.
24:13 So,
24:13 of course,
24:14 um,
24:15 some distributional questions here on the,
24:17 uh,
24:17 the effects of those policies and who they might benefit to,
24:20 uh,
24:20 at the end of the day.
24:22 Um,
24:23 I will
24:24 wrap up with two more,
24:26 uh,
24:26 topics.
24:27 Uh,
24:27 the next one being on,
24:28 on health.
24:29 Um,
24:30 Kathlin already mentioned the,
24:31 uh,
24:32 uh,
24:32 very exciting PRR that was,
24:34 uh,
24:35 um,
24:35 issued,
24:36 uh,
24:36 a few months ago
24:37 that analyzes how changes in incentives,
24:40 uh,
24:40 introduced to system-wide reforms affect service quality and outcome.
24:45 And then specifically looking at pay for performance,
24:48 uh,
24:48 based on the quantity or the quality of services delivered.
24:51 Um,
24:52 what's interesting is that,
24:53 uh,
24:53 I remember many years ago we were all very exciting seeing,
24:56 seeing the first results from Rwanda on
24:58 performance incentives that were pretty positive.
25:01 Um,
25:02 but the PRR actually updates,
25:04 uh,
25:04 our overall thinking on this showing that,
25:06 um,
25:07 performance pay
25:08 actually has little,
25:09 little impact in relatively under-sourced health systems,
25:13 and this is because,
25:15 um,
25:15 there's a lot of,
25:16 uh,
25:17 uh,
25:17 issues in,
25:18 in health systems that are beyond the control of the frontline providers
25:21 that may not be able to control or,
25:23 or influence,
25:24 uh,
25:24 issues related to the supply chain,
25:26 to the quality of infrastructure or equipment,
25:29 uh.
25:29 Or even demand side constraints,
25:31 uh,
25:31 which will be needed for the incentives to be,
25:33 uh,
25:34 effective and so
25:35 what the PRR illustrates and the graph here on the right illustrates is that,
25:39 uh,
25:40 direct facility financing,
25:42 um,
25:42 with autonomy and,
25:43 and,
25:44 and accountability may actually be just as,
25:46 as effective,
25:47 uh,
25:47 uh,
25:48 in terms of,
25:48 um,
25:49 uh,
25:49 uh,
25:50 achieving gains in outcome,
25:52 uh,
25:52 but doing so at lower cost and,
25:54 uh,
25:55 with a relatively easier implementation.
25:59 So the,
25:59 I'll conclude my uh very brief overview on uh uh selected uh topics on human capital
26:05 by uh talking a little bit about skills for schools,
26:09 uh,
26:09 for youth uh that have exited schools.
26:11 Um,
26:12 we know that the evidence on training programs and in program,
26:14 employment programs is,
26:15 is very mixed,
26:17 um,
26:17 but I want to highlight some,
26:19 um,
26:19 innovation
26:20 that have been partly supported by the KCP that,
26:23 uh,
26:23 shows some,
26:24 some promise,
26:25 uh,
26:25 uh,
26:25 that have shown promise in recent years.
26:27 So one example is
26:29 interventions,
26:30 uh,
26:30 behavioral intervention.
26:31 trying to target
26:32 uh um behavioral skills,
26:34 in this case,
26:35 personal initiative
26:36 tying to Katlin's earlier discussion of,
26:38 of,
26:39 of,
26:39 uh,
26:40 of those behavioral skills,
26:41 um,
26:42 showing that this may be more effective
26:43 than interventions trying to teach traditional business training
26:47 in terms of improving earnings,
26:48 uh,
26:49 for microenterprises.
26:51 Similarly,
26:52 uh,
26:52 evidence,
26:53 recent evidence showing that interventions combining on the job training with
26:57 training in vocational training centers in Colombia or through
27:00 dual apprenticeship in Cote d'Ivoire
27:02 can be very effective in improving skills and then raising productivity
27:06 uh of young people when they enter the workforce.
27:09 Um,
27:10 but beyond all of this,
27:11 uh,
27:12 also in this topic,
27:13 I think we have learned that we need to think carefully about the trading markets,
27:17 uh,
27:17 about the incentives for training provision in firms or,
27:22 uh,
27:22 in public,
27:23 uh,
27:23 in the public sector,
27:24 uh,
27:25 the scope to improve demand,
27:26 and overall,
27:27 I think as in many of the cases we just quickly discussed,
27:30 um,
27:31 that these policies cannot just be assessed,
27:33 uh,
27:33 in
27:34 partial equilibrium.
27:36 So,
27:37 um,
27:38 uh,
27:38 I think we're almost at the end of the time.
27:40 I think,
27:41 I don't see you beyond waving yet,
27:42 but,
27:43 uh,
27:43 you're probably close.
27:44 Uh,
27:44 I just want to kickstart the discussion by highlighting a few,
27:48 uh,
27:49 uh,
27:49 topics that we think are important for future research and see,
27:52 uh,
27:52 hear a little bit from you,
27:54 uh,
27:54 whether those are the right priorities or there are others that you think are more,
27:57 uh,
27:58 uh,
27:58 higher order.
27:59 Um,
28:00 one of the big questions or the big trajectory we see on the policy side is
28:04 towards more integrated or multifaceted interventions,
28:08 um,
28:09 um,
28:10 bundling,
28:11 uh,
28:11 various types of,
28:12 of components including
28:14 packaging intervention.
28:15 of the demand on the supply side together to improve outcomes.
28:18 So this is very exciting but it also raises a lot of questions on how to optimize those
28:23 uh multi multifaceted intervention
28:25 and how to uh tailor them across different settings and,
28:28 and,
28:29 and target populations.
28:31 Related to that,
28:32 uh,
28:33 of course,
28:33 we need a better understanding of health and education markets.
28:36 We've made lots of progress over the last 10 years,
28:38 but,
28:39 uh,
28:39 as,
28:40 um,
28:40 uh,
28:40 the interaction between public interventions and private providers,
28:43 um,
28:44 is key to understanding overall how,
28:46 um,
28:47 behavioral shifts and,
28:48 and how,
28:49 uh,
28:49 changes in outcome,
28:50 um,
28:51 uh,
28:51 pan out.
28:52 Uh,
28:53 especially as we move more and more towards system-wide policies and,
28:56 uh,
28:57 as we are pushed,
28:58 uh,
28:58 rightly so at the bank to think about scale and how,
29:01 uh,
29:01 impacts,
29:02 uh,
29:02 uh,
29:02 kind of aggregates to
29:04 achieve higher outer policy goal at the,
29:06 at the economy level.
29:09 Of course,
29:09 um,
29:10 the last few years have,
29:11 um,
29:12 showed us that,
29:12 uh,
29:13 you know,
29:13 uh,
29:14 we've faced major challenges in terms of human capital,
29:16 in terms of COVID,
29:18 and are also facing new challenges related to
29:20 climate and understanding how those are affecting,
29:24 uh,
29:24 both human capital,
29:25 uh,
29:26 um,
29:26 accumulation but also how,
29:28 uh,
29:28 policies to address them also then
29:31 Uh,
29:31 improve human capital and intersect with the human capital formation
29:35 will be critical moving forward
29:37 as,
29:37 uh,
29:38 is the,
29:38 the focus on technology or the hope that with technology,
29:41 we can,
29:42 uh,
29:42 achieve better outcome
29:44 by facilitating the work,
29:45 facilitating the work of providers as well as,
29:47 uh,
29:48 facilitating behavioral change among,
29:50 uh,
29:51 among,
29:51 um,
29:51 um,
29:52 uh,
29:52 users.
29:53 The last thing I will,
29:54 I will say today is that um as you've seen,
29:57 there's a huge amount of work going on on both on the data and on the evidence side
30:02 and given this boom,
30:03 I think one of the challenge we face is really being
30:06 able to synthesize effectively this evidence for policymakers so that they can
30:10 use this for policy actions and I think
30:12 uh beyond the generation,
30:13 this
30:15 uh synthesis of,
30:15 of evidence moving forward will be critical to
30:18 uh have even more policy impact for,
30:20 with the work that we do.
30:21 Thank you so much.
30:25 Thanks Patrick,
30:26 and thanks Kathleen as well for those
30:29 really
30:30 Interesting presentations.
30:31 I mean,
30:31 I,
30:32 I,
30:32 I,
30:32 I do understand that,
30:33 the,
30:34 the,
30:34 the,
30:34 the
30:35 selection process
30:37 for,
30:37 for,
30:37 for what to highlight was pretty drastic,
30:40 but um I think we can all agree it's a really rich
30:42 agenda,
30:43 and I think this gave us a really good flavor of the kind of work.
30:45 Uh,
30:45 we have,
30:46 uh,
30:46 that kind of work that's going on.
30:48 Um,
30:49 we have a really interesting,
30:50 uh,
30:50 uh,
30:51 and impressive uh set of panelists uh with us.
30:55 Uh,
30:55 we have one person in the room who's Emily Gustafson Wright,
30:58 who's a senior fellow at the Center for Universal Education,
31:02 Global Economy,
31:03 uh,
31:03 and Development at the Brookings Institution.
31:06 Uh,
31:06 we have Pamela Jacquiela,
31:08 who's associate Professor of Economics at Williams College.
31:12 We have Rukmini Banerjee,
31:13 who's Chief Executive Officer of Pratham Education Foundation.
31:17 And then we have Rick Vereinke,
31:18 professor of Practice at Aalto University,
31:21 Helsinki.
31:22 Um,
31:22 I'm gonna go in the order that it was given to me,
31:25 uh,
31:26 just to,
31:27 it's somewhat random,
31:29 uh,
31:30 which means we're gonna start with Pam.
31:31 Uh,
31:32 Pam,
31:32 are you online and can you come in?
31:37 Yes,
31:37 I am online.
31:39 Great,
31:40 we can see you and we can hear you.
31:41 Uh,
31:42 thanks,
31:42 go ahead.
31:43 Fantastic.
31:44 Thank you very much.
31:45 Um,
31:46 so thank you for having me.
31:47 I'm delighted to see so many familiar faces,
31:50 uh,
31:50 online.
31:51 Um,
31:52 so I'm going to comment a bit on
31:55 the educational side of human capital because
31:57 I feel woefully underqualified to talk,
31:59 to speak to the health and healthcare side.
32:02 So the talk we just heard did a great job of emphasizing the
32:05 tremendous progress in education that we've seen over the last 25 and even 50
32:10 years.
32:11 When we set out the Millennium Development
32:13 Goal of achieving universal primary education,
32:16 um,
32:17 20 years ago,
32:18 uh,
32:19 we've now achieved that.
32:21 We've come near to achieving that goal.
32:22 It's not no longer,
32:23 it's not,
32:24 uh,
32:24 universal,
32:25 but
32:25 the international community has made,
32:27 made remarkable progress,
32:29 and,
32:29 uh.
32:31 We've now shifted toward thinking about,
32:33 uh,
32:34 as access has become less of a constraint,
32:35 we've shifted toward thinking about learning,
32:38 uh,
32:38 and in particular,
32:39 uh,
32:40 the
32:41 The presentation we just saw was emphasizing
32:43 policies to improve teacher performance in the classroom,
32:46 technological and pedagogical innovations,
32:49 uh,
32:49 to increase the likelihood,
32:51 uh,
32:51 that
32:52 access to schools and effort by teachers translates into learning,
32:55 and
32:56 there's also a broad set of policies
32:58 on early childhood education and interventions to
33:01 help,
33:01 uh,
33:02 prepare students to be ready when they enter the classroom.
33:05 These policies are all extremely good and constructive,
33:08 and I'm not here to criticize,
33:09 uh,
33:09 to criticize them.
33:12 And
33:12 there,
33:13 as Kathleen and Patrick rightly point out,
33:14 there are a lot of other policies that they didn't have time to,
33:17 to discuss in the,
33:18 in related domains that have been
33:20 really successful over the years.
33:21 But the task in these sorts of situations is to have an interesting take,
33:25 so I'm going to
33:26 take a stab at that.
33:28 Um,
33:28 and so I'm gonna start by sort of framing why
33:31 we've shifted from access to school readiness and learning,
33:35 um,
33:36 in recent years,
33:37 and that's because,
33:38 you know,
33:38 when we,
33:39 um,
33:41 Started to succeed with access,
33:44 uh,
33:44 and come near to achieving universal primary education and higher enrollment,
33:49 uh,
33:49 in secondary education,
33:51 uh,
33:51 we saw that access alone was not enough,
33:53 you know,
33:53 so when Nigeria and Indonesia were building schools in the 1970s,
33:58 when
33:58 many,
33:59 uh,
33:59 African countries We're eliminating primary school fees
34:02 in the 1990s and the early 2000s.
34:05 The idea was that access
34:07 would,
34:07 would be enough,
34:08 would translate into
34:09 the building of a skilled workforce,
34:12 uh,
34:12 the skilled workforce that countries need to fully participate,
34:15 uh,
34:15 in the modern economy and achieve inclusive growth,
34:18 but it wasn't enough.
34:19 And,
34:20 you know,
34:21 this shouldn't be surprising.
34:22 It's not much of an exaggeration to
34:24 say that the whole narrative of post-war development
34:27 is a series of
34:28 uh attempts to try things,
34:30 and then
34:31 learning that they're not enough.
34:33 Um,
34:34 and so,
34:34 you know,
34:34 it's a little bit like we're that Far Side cartoon where we have a
34:37 physicist is at the blackboard and you have some equations on their left,
34:41 equations on their right,
34:42 and in the middle,
34:43 they,
34:43 they've written,
34:43 and then a miracle occurs,
34:44 you know,
34:45 we try policies and then we hope a growth miracle occurs.
34:49 Um,
34:50 and so we've turned a lot of attention
34:51 to learning and early childhood and school readiness,
34:54 and we're hoping that now this focus on human
34:57 capital rather than access to education is going to achieve
35:01 the growth and prosperity miracle that we are all hoping for.
35:05 And
35:06 the suggestion I want to make today,
35:07 and it's clearly not
35:08 a new idea.
35:09 Particularly my idea
35:11 is that
35:12 everything we're doing focusing on the building of human capital is good,
35:17 but it's really unlikely to be enough,
35:19 um,
35:19 and it may lead to,
35:21 you know,
35:21 significant impacts that are even
35:23 economically and developmentally meaningful,
35:25 but it's not going to,
35:27 to get us as far as we need to go.
35:29 And a big reason for this,
35:31 and this is something that Patrick kind of brought up at the very end,
35:34 is that there's a tendency to focus on the supply side and not on the demand side.
35:39 Um,
35:40 and so I just want to talk a bit about,
35:42 um,
35:43 how we need to frame our entire discussion of human capital,
35:47 not only in terms of that supply side,
35:49 but in terms of political economy
35:51 constraints and social constraints that are going to limit and are currently
35:55 limiting both the incentives for individuals
35:58 and households to invest in human capital
36:00 and the relationship between
36:02 human capital that is built,
36:04 uh,
36:04 in the classroom and in youth,
36:06 and how that translates into
36:08 Outcomes in the economy,
36:09 participation in the economy,
36:11 and subsequently growth and shared prosperity.
36:14 And so I only have a couple of minutes.
36:16 I'm gonna try to do this quickly,
36:17 and I'm gonna do it through a gender lens because
36:19 I'm always looking at everything through a gender lens.
36:22 Um,
36:23 and so I want to make two points.
36:25 And so the first is that
36:26 over the last 25 years,
36:27 we've seen a major push
36:29 to increase girls' educational attainment,
36:31 and Kathleen talked about how now we're actually
36:33 thinking about how boys are lagging behind.
36:35 We've been remarkably successful.
36:37 Um,
36:38 girls' enrollment in primary and secondary schools have increased dramatically,
36:42 both in absolute terms and relative to boys.
36:44 And of course we know schooling isn't learning,
36:47 uh,
36:48 but it is correlated with learning.
36:50 So sometimes we can beat the schooling isn't learning drum a little bit too hard.
36:53 It is correlated with learning,
36:55 and we've also seen big increases in female literacy
36:58 and enrollment in tertiary education,
37:00 which requires some measure of human capital.
37:02 And so all the evidence suggests that both in absolute terms and in relative terms,
37:07 We've seen pretty substantial increases in women's
37:10 human capital over the last 25 years,
37:13 and that's in absolute terms and relative to men.
37:16 And so we can think about
37:17 what has happened with women as a little bit of a case study or
37:21 quasi-experiment and the broad impacts of increasing
37:25 human capital for a group of people.
37:28 And the bad news is that over the same time period,
37:31 we've seen remarkably little progress in
37:33 terms of women's labor force participation
37:36 or their ability to achieve fulfilling careers in many countries and contexts.
37:41 And that's a real problem for
37:43 growth and development.
37:44 So economists estimate that in the United States,
37:47 between 20 and 40%
37:49 of US growth over the last 50 years
37:51 has come about because women and minorities who were excluded
37:55 from high-skilled professions have been able to enter them.
37:58 And there's no reason to think that that type of misallocation
38:00 isn't just as big of a problem in developing countries.
38:03 Um,
38:04 but the problem is that as we've seen these big increases in women's human capital,
38:09 we've seen they are not predictive of women getting to enter the labor force,
38:13 increases in labor force participation.
38:16 Um,
38:16 and so that brings me to my second point,
38:18 which is that when we're thinking about human capital,
38:20 and
38:21 in particular thinking about investments in human capital that we hope
38:24 we're going to translate into impacts on the broader economy,
38:27 we really need to emphasize
38:28 not just the learning outcomes,
38:30 but also,
38:31 uh,
38:32 thinking about building
38:34 data,
38:34 building knowledge
38:36 about the demand side constraints,
38:38 and I'm gonna look at this through the gender.
38:40 as well,
38:41 because for women and girls,
38:42 we know
38:43 that at every stage of the process,
38:45 even though women and girls are in school now,
38:47 as much as boys in many places,
38:49 girls are facing,
38:51 uh,
38:51 these additional challenges that prevent them,
38:53 that reduce their incentives to invest in their human capital,
38:57 uh,
38:57 and it reduced the extent to which that
38:59 translates into their full participation in the economy.
39:02 So
39:02 girls face an
39:04 additional burden.
39:05 burden of domestic care work in the home.
39:07 They face discrimination from teachers
39:09 who nudge them into lower skill tracks and professions.
39:13 Uh,
39:14 they,
39:14 we know that they distort their educational choices to try
39:17 to avoid risks of street harassment and gender-based violence,
39:22 uh,
39:22 that they face a lower expected return to investing in their own education because
39:25 they might get kicked out of school in many contexts if they get pregnant.
39:29 And then of course,
39:30 they worry about the marriage market consequences,
39:32 and the incentives to invest in education
39:34 are reduced when there aren't complementary,
39:37 uh,
39:37 both,
39:38 you know,
39:38 access to child care,
39:39 things that allow them to
39:41 balance their family responsibilities with fulfilling careers in adulthood,
39:45 and also social constraints from their families and their spouses
39:48 that limit their ability to really have meaningful careers,
39:52 if those might come at some cost to their household work.
39:55 So none of these things is new to anybody in this room,
39:57 but I really wanted to sort of nudge us to when we talk about human capital,
40:02 not just think about what we're doing on the supply side,
40:06 but really think about the need to build knowledge on
40:10 the demand side and in particular how households and
40:13 individuals are perceiving the choices and the trade-offs they make
40:16 and the constraints that they face.
40:18 And of course,
40:19 the,
40:19 you know,
40:19 the World Bank has been a leader in
40:22 Not just,
40:23 you know,
40:23 service delivery indicators,
40:25 but also individual household surveys,
40:27 and there's a lot of great innovation going on in
40:30 measurement of beliefs and attitudes and perceived social constraints.
40:34 But I really would like to encourage us to think that,
40:36 uh,
40:36 to think about the need to,
40:38 to center those things when we're talking about human capital.
40:42 Because what we've seen is the good news is when households perceive opportunities
40:46 for women and girls to enter the labor force in a productive way,
40:50 they respond rapidly.
40:51 They invest in girls' education,
40:53 they change their attitudes about women's labor force participation.
40:56 We've seen that with business process outsourcing in India,
40:59 with uh
41:01 garment manufacturing in Bangladesh.
41:03 Um,
41:04 but the point is we need to think about
41:06 in a context specific.
41:07 way,
41:08 what are the binding constraints,
41:09 not just on access and not just within the classroom,
41:12 but that are preventing,
41:14 uh,
41:15 not just women and girls,
41:16 but lots of groups from being able to
41:18 have a pathway from building human capital
41:21 to contributing and fully participating
41:24 in the economy and think about building our measures and our interventions
41:27 to work on that margin as well.
41:29 So I'll stop there.
41:30 Thank you very much.
41:33 Thanks,
41:33 Pam,
41:33 for that was
41:34 really interesting and useful,
41:36 uh.
41:37 Contextualization and,
41:38 and slight challenge to the,
41:40 to the way uh
41:42 we're thinking about this
41:44 issue of building human capital and,
41:45 and,
41:45 and the benefits we might,
41:47 uh,
41:47 reap from that.
41:48 Um,
41:49 next up is Rukmini Banerjee.
41:50 Rukmini,
41:51 are you on?
41:57 Yep,
41:58 uh,
41:58 I'm here.
41:59 Can you hear me?
42:00 Hi,
42:01 Rukmini,
42:01 we can hear you and we can see you.
42:03 Thanks for being here.
42:05 Great.
42:05 Uh,
42:06 thank you for having me.
42:07 Um,
42:08 I really enjoyed the,
42:09 uh,
42:10 speakers before me,
42:12 and I was just thinking that,
42:14 uh,
42:14 you know,
42:15 we are celebrating,
42:16 I guess,
42:16 20 years of,
42:17 uh,
42:18 evolution of knowledge,
42:20 and,
42:21 uh,
42:21 especially as far as the
42:23 learning crisis and what is happening with children and schooling and learning.
42:28 Uh,
42:28 it almost seems like,
42:30 uh,
42:30 you know,
42:31 this,
42:32 uh,
42:32 difference between schooling and learning.
42:35 Schooling isn't learning,
42:37 overambitious curriculum leading to negative consequences.
42:41 All of these things now
42:43 seem to be,
42:44 you know,
42:45 part of the knowledge,
42:46 at least of a lot of people in this room,
42:49 as well as in kind of the highest policy circles.
42:52 Uh,
42:52 but
42:53 when we talk about knowledge and what is known changing life on the ground,
42:58 are there still things to be done?
43:01 Uh,
43:01 we just released in India the,
43:04 uh,
43:05 I've
43:05 lost track myself now,
43:07 I think the 17th annual status of Education report,
43:10 the UA report,
43:11 about 10 days ago,
43:13 uh,
43:13 where,
43:14 uh,
43:14 we are talking about,
43:16 um,
43:17 you know,
43:17 where are the basic learning levels in India,
43:20 and obviously because of the last two years of the pandemic,
43:24 there is a certain amount of decline
43:27 or lack of recovery,
43:28 you know,
43:29 in different places across the country.
43:31 Now,
43:32 whether you think about learning adjusted years of,
43:35 uh,
43:35 learning,
43:35 adjusted
43:37 years of schooling that the World Bank is coming up with,
43:40 or other kinds of measures,
43:43 uh,
43:43 my question often to myself as well as to our colleagues in India is,
43:48 to what extent
43:50 on the ground
43:51 are parents,
43:54 are teachers,
43:55 Accepting that this
43:58 big gap that they see between learning and schooling
44:01 is something that they need to work on
44:03 as,
44:04 uh,
44:05 you know,
44:05 as children go through the system.
44:07 Uh,
44:07 so for example,
44:08 there's been a lot of hand wringing on
44:11 the learning loss during COVID,
44:13 but I think there is,
44:14 uh,
44:15 other than in very enlightened circles.
44:18 There is less of a realization that
44:20 that dip has come on top of a much longer trend
44:24 of low learning levels in the world,
44:27 and therefore we need to get back to the structural reasons
44:30 for why this is the case,
44:32 uh,
44:32 and,
44:33 uh,
44:33 you know,
44:33 work on the solutions.
44:34 Some solutions exist.
44:36 Patrick and others have laid them out,
44:38 but work on the solutions which are actually longer term solutions,
44:42 not just as a response to COVID.
44:44 So if I think about the way that we have worked in India
44:49 in kind of understanding the problem,
44:51 it started with a very simple way of
44:54 assessing kids
44:56 using
44:57 a very basic tool
44:59 which didn't go at grade level.
45:01 And I think we also underestimate the,
45:04 the mindset
45:06 that almost
45:08 everybody has,
45:09 at least in a
45:10 low income country,
45:12 that schooling means a linear progression
45:15 year on year through a system.
45:17 And as you rise through the system,
45:20 that is spend more and more years in school,
45:23 you know,
45:23 somewhere you are different from those who have spent less years in school.
45:27 Despite the fact that the data for 10 years
45:30 is showing
45:31 that if you didn't get onto the treadmill at the right pace
45:34 early in your school life,
45:35 you actually you're not going to make it.
45:37 So we have enrollment,
45:39 for example,
45:39 if we look at enrollment in India in 8th grade,
45:42 uh,
45:43 and if you remember that
45:45 we have about 25 million
45:48 kids in each single age group.
45:51 The 8th grade enrollment
45:54 in say 2008
45:56 was about 11 or 12 million nationally,
45:58 and that number in 2018 or 201919
46:01 is like 23 million.
46:03 So while learning levels have not moved,
46:05 enrollments and completed years of schooling
46:09 have gone through the roof,
46:10 and the implications of that on what happens beyond,
46:13 you know,
46:13 I think is understood in a research sense
46:17 but not understood in a real and a practical sense on the ground.
46:20 So my one question that I would like to leave on this panel is
46:25 there is a lot of research results,
46:27 you know,
46:27 we have
46:28 uh panels and committees which are compiling the most cutting edge research,
46:33 but how long does it take
46:35 for the key elements of
46:38 our knowledge to actually get down onto the ground
46:41 and what methods or what,
46:43 uh,
46:44 what mechanisms
46:47 enable that to happen?
46:48 Now,
46:48 in some,
46:49 in a very perverted way,
46:50 I feel COVID could have been that instrument
46:54 that it shook everybody up in such a big way
46:56 that you are forced to think in different ways.
46:59 And,
47:00 you know,
47:00 just the fact,
47:01 for example,
47:02 if I quote from our latest AA report
47:05 that there are kids who are in 3rd grade
47:08 in India right now who actually had no schooling.
47:11 They came in.
47:12 Our schools were closed for 2 years.
47:14 They moved into 3rd grade in April of
47:16 2022.
47:18 And so by the time our asset measurement happened,
47:22 which was about 6 months later,
47:23 they actually had only 6 months of schooling.
47:25 And yet if you look at the basic level of learning.
47:29 There is 20 to 25% of kids in the country are at grade level,
47:34 and this is despite schools being closed.
47:36 So you would think that even these very basic facts
47:40 lead you to think about what is it that we are doing in school
47:44 or not doing in school
47:46 that is leading to this situation.
47:48 And if schools have been closed for two years
47:50 and we see a drop in learning for sure,
47:52 but you don't see zero,
47:54 what does that teach you?
47:55 What does that mean?
47:56 Uh,
47:57 and so,
47:57 you know,
47:58 I would really like,
47:59 uh,
47:59 you know,
48:00 I'm sure
48:01 there are others who are thinking about this,
48:02 about how does research get to the ground,
48:05 uh,
48:05 how about
48:06 the fact that we have solutions,
48:08 many of which have been laid out,
48:10 and,
48:10 you know,
48:10 the one that we have worked on a lot,
48:12 uh,
48:12 teaching at the right level,
48:14 evaluated
48:15 many times,
48:16 shown to be very effective,
48:18 but there isn't like an automatic
48:21 use of that data
48:23 despite the fact that the World Bank and
48:26 FCDO and whatnot have it as a good buy,
48:29 uh,
48:29 not a goodbye,
48:30 but a good buy,
48:31 uh,
48:32 uh,
48:33 out there.
48:33 We don't see like a massive sudden huge
48:36 demand from governments to use that solution,
48:39 which is well known.
48:40 So where are these gaps and what does the
48:44 knowledge producing community need to do
48:47 to a knowledge digesting community
48:50 who can then put some of these
48:52 uh
48:53 things that are now well known into practice.
48:55 So let me just stop there because
48:58 maybe others have
48:59 better solutions to offer.
49:03 Thanks,
49:03 Rukmini.
49:04 Another really insightful set of challenges to,
49:07 to how we think about um
49:09 the,
49:09 the,
49:09 the,
49:09 the production of this research and,
49:11 and where,
49:12 where it leads,
49:13 uh,
49:14 um,
49:14 and how it moves to practice.
49:16 Um,
49:16 next up,
49:17 we have,
49:17 uh,
49:17 Emily,
49:18 Emily Gustafson Wright,
49:20 um,
49:21 who's here in person.
49:24 Thanks,
49:24 Dion,
49:25 and uh thanks everybody,
49:27 great to be here.
49:28 Um,
49:29 so I'm at the Center for Universal Education at the Brookings Institution and um
49:33 we do,
49:34 uh,
49:35 I think a lot of digesting
49:37 of the research also and I think that that's a really
49:40 important
49:40 uh role is,
49:41 um,
49:41 you know,
49:42 translating a lot of these um really important findings from the bank and,
49:45 and elsewhere,
49:46 um,
49:46 as well as our own research,
49:48 um,
49:48 and including a number of areas such as scaling and gender equity.
49:53 Um,
49:53 what we call a breadth of skills.
49:55 Um,
49:56 there was a discussion on the slides around
49:58 non-cognitive skills,
49:59 we call them a breadth of skills,
50:00 systems transformation,
50:02 ah,
50:02 family engagement,
50:03 which was also mentioned,
50:05 um,
50:06 just to name a few.
50:07 I primarily focus
50:09 on costing and financing education and early childhood development,
50:13 and for the past decade or so,
50:14 I've been working on results-based financing.
50:17 So I will focus,
50:18 um,
50:19 my comments on results-based financing.
50:21 Um,
50:22 and,
50:23 um,
50:24 for human development or human capital,
50:26 um,
50:26 and I'll focus on four main,
50:28 uh,
50:28 4 main areas.
50:29 So first I'll comment on what was presented
50:32 with respect to the evidence and what wasn't.
50:35 Um,
50:35 and then I'll highlight some nuances that I think are
50:38 critical to consider when looking at the evidence or lack
50:41 or lack thereof.
50:43 Um,
50:43 third,
50:43 I'll describe the current landscape of results-based
50:46 financing in education and health and,
50:49 um,
50:49 what we might expect to see in the coming years.
50:52 Um,
50:52 and then finally,
50:53 I'll suggest some areas for,
50:54 um,
50:55 for further research.
50:57 Um,
50:57 so we heard some evidence on policies to
51:00 improve,
51:00 um,
51:00 human capital.
51:02 Um,
51:02 this included two forms of contingent financing,
51:05 uh,
51:05 conditional cash transfers and performance-based grants.
51:08 Um,
51:09 the results are mainly positive but,
51:10 but mixed,
51:11 um,
51:12 for both of the mechanisms,
51:14 um,
51:14 that were presented,
51:16 um,
51:16 in particular in terms of short versus long-term effects,
51:19 um,
51:19 but also for different,
51:20 um,
51:21 populations.
51:22 Uh,
51:22 fun fact,
51:23 I actually started my career,
51:24 um,
51:24 over two decades ago,
51:26 working on conditional cash transfers here at the bank.
51:29 Um,
51:29 the bank,
51:30 uh,
51:30 was skeptical,
51:31 um,
51:32 I would say,
51:33 um,
51:33 IDB was,
51:34 I think,
51:34 a bit more positive at that time.
51:36 Uh,
51:36 we were working in Brazil with the
51:38 then Bolsa Escola program.
51:41 Um,
51:42 so I guess I was,
51:43 um,
51:43 you know,
51:44 of course this is the,
51:44 this is the lens that I'm looking at this through,
51:46 and,
51:47 um,
51:47 I was surprised not to see a little bit more presented on the topic,
51:50 of course there wasn't a lot of time,
51:52 um,
51:53 maybe also this is just because,
51:55 um,
51:56 the,
51:56 um,
51:58 the research that's been done at the bank was funded by other,
52:00 other,
52:00 other trust funds or other,
52:02 um,
52:02 um,
52:03 other funders,
52:04 um,
52:04 but there is,
52:05 there has been quite a bit of work done at the bank,
52:07 um.
52:09 For example,
52:09 under the REACH Trust Fund,
52:10 um,
52:11 also an IEG review of P4R,
52:13 um,
52:14 and then,
52:14 um,
52:15 some work done by,
52:15 um,
52:16 GPRBA as well.
52:17 Um,
52:18 and of course lots of research that's been done,
52:20 uh,
52:20 outside of the bank on results-based financing.
52:23 So I'm not gonna go into the details,
52:24 um,
52:25 about the existing evidence.
52:26 Rather,
52:26 I'd like to make an observation
52:28 about the analysis of or the conversations
52:31 that are being had about results-based financing
52:33 or RBF literature,
52:34 and I have to admit I'm sort of using this platform
52:37 to address a bit of a pet peeve of my own.
52:40 Um,
52:41 so
52:42 there are quite a few different,
52:44 uh,
52:44 contingent payment or RBF mechanisms,
52:47 um,
52:48 that have been applied,
52:49 um,
52:49 to both education and and in the health sector,
52:52 uh,
52:52 over the years.
52:54 But what I've seen is often the findings uh tend to be bunched together,
52:58 uh,
52:58 kind of under one umbrella,
52:59 um,
53:00 and I,
53:00 and I feel that little attention is being paid to sort of the nuances
53:04 of the different types of mechanisms and or the projects themselves.
53:08 Um,
53:09 I feel like this has resulted sometimes in sort
53:11 of blanket decisions being made around our RBF,
53:14 um,
53:15 as a potential tool to address some of the challenges that we've talked about today.
53:19 Um,
53:19 and there are in fact considerable differences between
53:22 the different types of RBA,
53:24 um,
53:25 and,
53:25 uh,
53:25 and we've seen some of,
53:27 uh,
53:27 you know,
53:28 research done about this over the past couple of decades.
53:31 Um,
53:31 so the primary difference
53:32 between the different mechanisms is who bears the financial risk,
53:35 um,
53:36 or who,
53:37 who won't get paid if the results aren't achieved.
53:39 So that can be national government,
53:41 subnational,
53:42 um,
53:42 service providers,
53:43 or schools,
53:44 uh,
53:44 or health,
53:45 uh,
53:45 centers or teachers,
53:47 um,
53:47 individuals in the case of,
53:48 um,
53:49 CCTs,
53:50 um,
53:50 and in the case of the more recent,
53:51 um,
53:51 social development impact bonds,
53:53 which is where my research focuses,
53:54 um,
53:55 impact investors.
53:56 So,
53:57 who,
53:57 who isn't going to get,
53:58 who's going to get paid or not get paid,
54:00 um,
54:00 really matters.
54:01 Second,
54:03 Um,
54:03 I think the governance structure or the power dynamics,
54:06 um,
54:06 of these configurations matter.
54:08 So who's making the decisions about the
54:09 metrics and the threshold thresholds for payments,
54:12 for example.
54:13 Um,
54:14 3rd,
54:15 um,
54:15 the,
54:16 the,
54:16 the measurement and evaluation matter.
54:18 So are the results outputs or outcomes,
54:20 we've had a 10,
54:21 we've tended to see,
54:23 um,
54:23 a greater focus on outputs in traditional results-based financing.
54:27 We're seeing a shift towards,
54:28 uh,
54:28 farther to the right in the results chain
54:30 towards outcomes in social and development impact months,
54:33 for example.
54:34 Um,
54:34 also,
54:35 you know,
54:35 how and what are the thresholds for success,
54:37 um,
54:38 determined,
54:39 um,
54:39 what is the counterfactual?
54:40 Is there even a counterfactual?
54:42 Um,
54:43 and then finally,
54:44 obviously the context matters,
54:45 um,
54:46 and what happens around the project in terms of,
54:48 um,
54:48 technical support and,
54:50 and other elements.
54:52 Um,
54:53 so,
54:53 uh,
54:53 third,
54:54 what is the current landscape and what,
54:56 uh,
54:56 what are the trends that we are seeing?
54:58 Um,
54:59 so overall we are seeing,
55:00 um,
55:01 quite a bit of an upward trend,
55:03 um,
55:03 in the use of results-based-based financing.
55:05 I,
55:05 I do think that this,
55:06 you know,
55:07 kind of,
55:07 this comes from the,
55:09 the,
55:10 the access plus learning,
55:11 um,
55:12 a shift in focus to outcomes,
55:13 constrained budgets,
55:15 um,
55:16 you know,
55:16 I think that the
55:17 RCT movement,
55:18 I think,
55:19 was part of this,
55:20 um,
55:21 this push perhaps.
55:22 Um,
55:24 and,
55:24 um,
55:25 so I'm,
55:25 I'm not going to give sort of the,
55:27 it's,
55:27 it's very difficult to measure
55:29 sort of how many,
55:30 uh,
55:31 because there are so many different types of results-based financing,
55:33 kind of how many are we seeing in the world,
55:35 it is on the rise.
55:36 I'll focus,
55:37 um,
55:37 on,
55:38 um,
55:38 social development impact bonds,
55:39 which,
55:39 um,
55:40 is,
55:40 um,
55:41 an area that I,
55:41 again,
55:42 that I focus on and maintain a database of all of the projects in the world.
55:45 So this is just to give you sort of a sense of,
55:47 of what we're seeing,
55:47 um,
55:48 in the global landscape.
55:50 So,
55:51 Um,
55:51 there are about 240 impact bonds projects,
55:54 impact bond projects globally,
55:56 um,
55:56 that have been contracted.
55:57 Um,
55:58 the majority of those are in the employment and social welfare sector.
56:02 Um,
56:02 however,
56:03 the education sector was the one that,
56:05 that was the sector that grew the most,
56:06 um,
56:06 in the past year,
56:07 um,
56:08 an increase of 12 projects,
56:09 bringing the total number of education projects in the world to 40.
56:12 Um,
56:13 and this included the launch of 5 projects in Sierra Leone.
56:17 Uh,
56:17 which are meant to reach over 130,000 students
56:20 as part of the Education Outcomes Fund,
56:22 which is a pool of funds for,
56:24 um,
56:25 to pay for outcomes,
56:26 um,
56:27 which I can speak more about if you're curious.
56:29 Um,
56:30 and,
56:31 um,
56:32 It would,
56:32 yeah,
56:33 so that includes a multiple,
56:34 um,
56:34 results-based financing projects within that,
56:36 um,
56:37 and then there were,
56:38 um,
56:38 there were only two new health projects,
56:39 uh,
56:39 in the past year,
56:40 um,
56:41 bringing the total of,
56:42 um,
56:43 health projects to 36.
56:45 We,
56:46 we saw a little bit of a slow during the pandemic,
56:48 obviously,
56:48 but there seems to
56:49 be sort of,
56:50 they seem to be ramping up now.
56:52 Um,
56:52 what do we see in the pipeline?
56:54 Uh,
56:54 quite a bit,
56:55 um,
56:55 happening,
56:56 uh,
56:56 on the horizon in terms of education.
56:58 Um,
56:59 both impact bonds and outcomes funds like the Education Outcomes Fund,
57:03 um,
57:03 will be launching another project,
57:05 uh,
57:05 in Ghana,
57:07 um,
57:07 reaching over,
57:08 uh,
57:09 nearly 200,000 students,
57:10 um,
57:11 the Back to school Outcomes Fund in India,
57:13 a number of early childhood projects,
57:15 uh,
57:15 with Education Outcomes Fund as well as,
57:17 um,
57:18 independently,
57:19 and for example,
57:19 in Jordan,
57:20 um,
57:21 also in Chile,
57:22 we see a number,
57:23 um,
57:23 in,
57:23 in health,
57:24 also a few,
57:25 uh,
57:25 a number that are in both in early and latest design.
57:28 Um,
57:29 all right,
57:29 so in terms of the
57:30 future work in this area,
57:32 um,
57:33 So on the one hand,
57:34 we,
57:34 we know,
57:35 and I,
57:35 I didn't really go into this,
57:36 but we,
57:37 we know that there is some rigorous evidence,
57:39 uh,
57:40 a lack of rigorous evidence.
57:42 It's a tough experiment to do,
57:43 right,
57:44 um,
57:44 sort of,
57:46 uh,
57:47 project using this financing,
57:48 uh,
57:49 mechanism,
57:49 uh,
57:50 versus not,
57:51 um,
57:52 but on the other hand,
57:53 um,
57:53 some would argue
57:55 that it's really time that governments and donors
57:57 stop paying for things that aren't delivering outcomes.
58:01 Um,
58:02 so if that's the premise.
58:04 I posit the question should be,
58:05 you know,
58:06 when it's appropriate,
58:07 how can results-based financing be done better?
58:09 Um,
58:10 how can systems be set up to ensure more efficient design,
58:13 um,
58:13 and implementation of results-based financing for human development.
58:17 Um,
58:17 I'm currently working on a paper together with Thomas Poulson from the bank.
58:21 Um,
58:21 we're exploring
58:22 the four types of data needed for results-based financing.
58:26 Uh,
58:26 so in addition to cost data,
58:28 cost of inaction data,
58:29 and results data,
58:31 um,
58:31 we're,
58:32 um,
58:32 we believe it's really critical to invest in the monitoring data,
58:35 the real-time data,
58:36 um,
58:36 for adaptive management,
58:38 um,
58:38 in classroom classrooms and health,
58:40 uh,
58:40 settings,
58:41 um,
58:41 with a focus on equitable,
58:43 um,
58:43 outcome achievement.
58:44 Um,
58:45 and then finally back to my final point,
58:46 I,
58:46 I think it's really critical to understand
58:48 the nuances of these different projects,
58:49 so,
58:50 um,
58:50 rather than sort of
58:52 throwing the baby out
58:53 with the bathwater or going full steam ahead,
58:56 I think it's really important to,
58:57 to consider these different factors,
58:59 um,
58:59 that drive the results within them.
59:04 Thanks,
59:04 thanks,
59:05 Emily.
59:05 Another sort of reminder of,
59:07 of,
59:08 of how we should be careful in,
59:10 in how to interpret
59:12 the results and what to expect from these different interventions.
59:15 Um,
59:16 last but not least,
59:16 um,
59:17 Ritva Reineke,
59:18 uh,
59:19 Ritva,
59:19 are you online?
59:20 Ritva was,
59:20 was my former boss,
59:22 and,
59:23 uh,
59:23 under various configurations.
59:25 I'm very excited to see her today.
59:27 Uh,
59:28 over to you,
59:28 Ritva.
59:30 Thank you very much,
59:31 Dion,
59:31 and it's great to see you and many
59:34 other familiar faces,
59:36 um,
59:36 and colleagues.
59:38 And,
59:38 and anyway,
59:39 I have to say that uh it's great for me to join this celebration.
59:43 When I got the invitation,
59:45 I never knew this would still exist,
59:47 Knowledge for Change program,
59:50 because at the time when it was established,
59:53 I worked at the World Bank's research department and
59:57 One of my jobs was to establish this kind of a fund,
1:00:01 not just by myself,
1:00:02 but
1:00:03 as a group.
1:00:04 So it was uh
1:00:05 the longevity is amazing and I'm,
1:00:08 I'm,
1:00:08 I'm really thrilled.
1:00:09 So,
1:00:10 you,
1:00:10 you've done a lot of work over.
1:00:12 The,
1:00:13 yes.
1:00:13 I just will
1:00:15 uh make a few comments about the past,
1:00:18 um,
1:00:19 about research and policy,
1:00:21 and then
1:00:22 the future,
1:00:23 especially
1:00:24 based on,
1:00:25 on what Kathleen and um
1:00:28 Patrick presented.
1:00:30 So just about the past and it's,
1:00:32 it was fantastic to hear the various
1:00:35 comments because
1:00:37 at that time in the bank's research department,
1:00:41 the way research was organized,
1:00:44 we had
1:00:45 a group that studied demand for education and health using household surveys,
1:00:51 and then we had a public.
1:00:52 Economics
1:00:54 team
1:00:55 that used the budget data.
1:00:57 They did not interact.
1:00:59 They were separate endeavors.
1:01:02 And
1:01:03 at that time when KCB was also set up,
1:01:06 these two were integrated.
1:01:08 And what also happened was that
1:01:11 public economics in the bank really went micro.
1:01:15 Um,
1:01:16 and,
1:01:18 and there was a new research program on service delivery.
1:01:20 There was no analysis,
1:01:22 uh,
1:01:22 the research analysis
1:01:24 on service delivery,
1:01:25 and it was really great to hear,
1:01:27 uh,
1:01:28 the,
1:01:28 the fellow panelists to say that,
1:01:30 OK,
1:01:30 we need to go back to demand,
1:01:32 so something has been achieved,
1:01:35 uh,
1:01:35 for sure.
1:01:37 I think the key issue was that it was
1:01:40 two things.
1:01:41 One,
1:01:42 it was recognized that there is behavior
1:01:45 on the supply side as well.
1:01:47 There are incentives.
1:01:48 There are services that have guards of people
1:01:52 doing the service and,
1:01:53 and therefore there's behavior and incentives.
1:01:57 I think also the other thing was that this allowed
1:02:01 the bank's research also to get closer to the operational work and the country's
1:02:08 actual service delivery
1:02:10 because
1:02:11 we went beyond budget and I think the key issue was to realize also
1:02:15 budgets actually are very different from service delivery as such.
1:02:20 So at that time,
1:02:23 We were after impact,
1:02:25 we started the pioneering some of the
1:02:27 measurements like leakage of funds or absence rates
1:02:31 and competence of service providers,
1:02:34 and some of
1:02:35 you really presented very nicely.
1:02:38 We also put together making services work for poor people,
1:02:42 uh,
1:02:43 WDR which
1:02:44 Which,
1:02:45 which was hoped at the time that it would
1:02:48 spur further research in this area.
1:02:51 And when I looked at your presentation,
1:02:54 um,
1:02:54 uh,
1:02:55 Katherine and Patrick,
1:02:56 I,
1:02:56 I think there has been in research
1:02:59 huge progress
1:03:01 in the 20 years.
1:03:02 So,
1:03:03 uh,
1:03:03 that's really super good.
1:03:06 Uh,
1:03:06 then when I think about impact,
1:03:08 which was desired impact on actual service delivery,
1:03:13 particularly,
1:03:14 and I often think about poor countries,
1:03:17 I
1:03:18 I think definitely in education and it was,
1:03:21 by the way,
1:03:21 interesting that the whole panel
1:03:23 also is
1:03:24 uh people who have mostly studied education or worked in education.
1:03:30 My,
1:03:30 my view is that in healthcare,
1:03:32 this is much less so,
1:03:34 that kind of agenda,
1:03:36 uh,
1:03:36 much less in,
1:03:38 in healthcare.
1:03:40 OK,
1:03:41 so that's about the past.
1:03:43 Linking with policy,
1:03:45 uh,
1:03:45 research and policy,
1:03:47 that has been,
1:03:48 um,
1:03:48 a kind of dear topic for me.
1:03:51 I
1:03:51 used to work mostly in um
1:03:54 operations uh there in the bank
1:03:57 and,
1:03:57 and also a long time ago in UNICEF.
1:04:00 Um,
1:04:02 And in the bank,
1:04:03 um,
1:04:04 I had a chance
1:04:05 to put this research,
1:04:08 I mean,
1:04:10 for my,
1:04:10 for,
1:04:11 for a small part,
1:04:12 always,
1:04:12 one has to emphasize,
1:04:14 and into operations as Human Development Director
1:04:18 in the Africa region,
1:04:19 which was my
1:04:21 last um
1:04:22 assignment in the bank.
1:04:24 And it's easier said than done,
1:04:28 and I think Rukmini also
1:04:30 hinted
1:04:32 or
1:04:32 said that very clearly.
1:04:35 You have
1:04:36 certain
1:04:37 absolute winners and they don't go,
1:04:40 uh,
1:04:41 you know,
1:04:42 to the system.
1:04:43 Obviously.
1:04:45 Um,
1:04:45 it's also this thing,
1:04:46 uh,
1:04:46 that,
1:04:47 uh,
1:04:47 that I find that
1:04:49 research agendas that are born in academic circles don't necessarily
1:04:55 reach policymakers and sometimes they don't speak to them.
1:05:01 And RE a program,
1:05:03 the research on improving systems of education.
1:05:06 Um,
1:05:07 that many of you have been involved in which is a magnificent large program
1:05:12 is now struggling with that,
1:05:14 churning out
1:05:16 this
1:05:17 material to try and
1:05:19 get the message
1:05:20 through,
1:05:20 and it will be very interesting to see
1:05:23 how that works,
1:05:24 but it is not
1:05:25 very easy.
1:05:26 I think in,
1:05:27 we actually work together beyond in the Africa region 8D.
1:05:33 And you were leading the kind of the think tank part of it in,
1:05:37 in the region,
1:05:39 and I felt it was really,
1:05:40 really important to be
1:05:42 in there,
1:05:43 um,
1:05:43 and,
1:05:44 and we did work
1:05:45 on regional topics,
1:05:47 which for Africa,
1:05:48 we at the time felt,
1:05:49 and I think it,
1:05:50 I feel
1:05:51 Uh,
1:05:52 continued to be
1:05:53 population,
1:05:54 youth employment,
1:05:55 and service delivery,
1:05:57 and it was definitely much better when one is right there and the agenda is set
1:06:03 by the operational people that were in the bank
1:06:06 and then
1:06:06 the policymakers in the countries.
1:06:09 In my
1:06:10 own experience of the two decades in the bank,
1:06:14 I
1:06:15 was able
1:06:17 to combine research and operation
1:06:20 the best when I was a country economist working in Uganda.
1:06:24 Being,
1:06:25 being in their team entirely on the policymakers's terms,
1:06:30 uh,
1:06:31 it determined what was researched
1:06:34 and,
1:06:34 and then you were able to bring certain
1:06:38 Uh,
1:06:39 research that you knew in,
1:06:41 into the system.
1:06:42 So,
1:06:42 in this linking of research and policy,
1:06:45 it's a demanding task and my experience is
1:06:49 that once you are in the policymakers's team,
1:06:52 it somehow
1:06:53 is easier to pull it in there.
1:06:57 OK,
1:06:57 3rd thing,
1:06:58 looking
1:06:59 forward.
1:07:01 So
1:07:02 So interventions is,
1:07:04 is the term that is used
1:07:08 uh most.
1:07:09 And I think it's the and the randomista movement is the name of the
1:07:14 game today,
1:07:15 and,
1:07:15 and a lot has happened in that.
1:07:18 I remember we actually
1:07:20 in our team had Mike Kramer for 3 years,
1:07:24 part time,
1:07:24 not full time or part time.
1:07:26 I never would have believed
1:07:29 that that impact evaluation agenda
1:07:31 is so dominant.
1:07:34 What is much less dominant I feel is what
1:07:37 came out of the World Development Report 2004,
1:07:41 Making Services Work
1:07:42 for poor people,
1:07:43 which
1:07:45 Gave a way to think about systems
1:07:48 and,
1:07:48 and that features in my view,
1:07:50 much less today
1:07:53 to look at the politics,
1:07:55 the compact between providers and policymakers,
1:07:58 management and client power
1:08:00 and those elements that belong to it.
1:08:03 Um,
1:08:05 And I,
1:08:06 I think um
1:08:08 really two things in,
1:08:09 in that,
1:08:10 is that when you think of the system as a matrix,
1:08:13 as
1:08:14 the RICE program,
1:08:15 for instance,
1:08:16 effectively uses this very same
1:08:18 uh framework
1:08:20 things,
1:08:20 you have
1:08:22 These columns and rows
1:08:25 in the system
1:08:26 and there can be so many incoherent things
1:08:29 in that
1:08:30 um
1:08:31 system
1:08:32 and in those columns and in uh in those rows.
1:08:36 And then when you have an intervention,
1:08:39 when it lands in the system,
1:08:42 it,
1:08:42 it,
1:08:42 it is totally unknown
1:08:44 what kind of a cell is it.
1:08:47 Is it in the middle of incoherencies
1:08:49 or is it coherent in terms of that
1:08:52 what you demand is financed,
1:08:55 what you provide information on tells about performance,
1:08:59 things like that,
1:09:00 or motivation.
1:09:02 So,
1:09:03 like in my own research,
1:09:05 so,
1:09:05 so two things.
1:09:06 One,
1:09:07 in my own
1:09:09 little research activity,
1:09:10 uh,
1:09:11 which is in a very poor,
1:09:13 low-income country,
1:09:14 Mozambique,
1:09:16 when,
1:09:16 uh,
1:09:16 just recently,
1:09:17 we completed um
1:09:19 A kind of an
1:09:21 ethnography,
1:09:23 like a modest ethno ethnography,
1:09:25 let's put it this way.
1:09:26 It is astounding to see
1:09:29 how interventions are being piled up on the system
1:09:33 and the impact it has.
1:09:35 On motivational teachers,
1:09:38 behaviors of head teachers,
1:09:40 local officials.
1:09:41 It,
1:09:41 it focuses on,
1:09:42 on,
1:09:42 on local um
1:09:44 actors mostly
1:09:46 and then all the donor agencies being
1:09:48 in the,
1:09:49 in the mix.
1:09:51 So it,
1:09:52 It,
1:09:53 at minimum creates these incoherencies or enforces them
1:09:59 at least,
1:10:00 and sometimes the system looks.
1:10:02 Chaotic.
1:10:03 So,
1:10:04 in,
1:10:04 in
1:10:05 that
1:10:06 type of approach which,
1:10:07 which also
1:10:09 has been in the RICE program that I
1:10:11 have been involved
1:10:12 with a little bit,
1:10:14 um,
1:10:14 I,
1:10:14 I really like that
1:10:17 because you,
1:10:17 you need to know
1:10:19 how
1:10:20 this all
1:10:21 pushing these things actually affects the system.
1:10:25 OK.
1:10:25 The last point,
1:10:28 why I'm a systems-oriented,
1:10:30 country-oriented person.
1:10:32 So,
1:10:33 I,
1:10:33 I
1:10:34 really think
1:10:36 this is very important for Africa especially.
1:10:40 Why?
1:10:41 Because in Africa,
1:10:43 systems are massively expanding,
1:10:46 not in the north as we heard in the poverty session
1:10:50 and not in the south.
1:10:51 South,
1:10:51 but in the West,
1:10:53 in the center,
1:10:54 and East Africa.
1:10:56 In the next 2 years,
1:10:57 if KCP still exists,
1:11:00 in the next 20 years,
1:11:02 population in these areas will have pretty much doubled.
1:11:07 It will mean,
1:11:08 and these are young people,
1:11:09 it will mean that education systems
1:11:12 expand massively as they have and they will.
1:11:17 And then I would like to ask,
1:11:20 A question for the future,
1:11:23 does research have anything to say
1:11:26 to these massively expanding,
1:11:28 uh,
1:11:29 system,
1:11:30 systems that
1:11:31 like,
1:11:32 um,
1:11:32 I was impressed by JP uh
1:11:36 um
1:11:37 uh Sedo telling me this,
1:11:39 these numbers that if
1:11:41 Brazil,
1:11:42 Nigeria,
1:11:43 Bangladesh now have roughly 45 million
1:11:47 in the school system.
1:11:48 Brazil and Bangladesh will reduce slowly.
1:11:52 In Nigeria in 20 years,
1:11:55 it will be 90 million.
1:11:57 So who has
1:11:59 the experience of expanding.
1:12:02 Systems to,
1:12:03 to accommodate
1:12:05 that uh is uh and,
1:12:08 and does,
1:12:08 is research able to say something about it or is it just
1:12:12 an operational issue?
1:12:14 I mean,
1:12:15 another number,
1:12:16 these are just back of the envelope things,
1:12:18 but it was also some calculations that in Africa,
1:12:23 um,
1:12:23 16% of workforce should be teachers.
1:12:27 I mean,
1:12:28 Here in America,
1:12:28 healthcare is uh
1:12:30 like a mass sector and 7 every 7 person is working in healthcare,
1:12:36 is 16% is,
1:12:38 uh,
1:12:39 is something similar.
1:12:41 So,
1:12:41 so how,
1:12:43 how,
1:12:43 how can,
1:12:45 how can,
1:12:45 um,
1:12:46 research and,
1:12:47 and this work help,
1:12:50 uh,
1:12:50 you know,
1:12:52 make that expansion
1:12:54 possible?
1:12:55 So that was all I,
1:12:57 I
1:12:58 wanted to say and um
1:13:00 And I hope KCP conti continues to contribute
1:13:04 to this and,
1:13:05 and other issues.
1:13:06 So thank you very much,
1:13:07 Tion.
1:13:10 Thank you,
1:13:10 Rita,
1:13:10 um.
1:13:13 This has been fascinating because I think in both sessions,
1:13:15 we've seen sort of a,
1:13:16 a,
1:13:17 a strong core of work,
1:13:18 a sort of a general buy-in that work.
1:13:21 But then in the panel discussions,
1:13:23 I think it's been really interesting to see how
1:13:26 You know,
1:13:26 it's,
1:13:27 it's just never enough.
1:13:28 Sitting in a research department,
1:13:29 that's actually not bad news because there's a lot more to do.
1:13:33 But it's on a number of fronts.
1:13:34 It's around the,
1:13:34 you know,
1:13:35 Pam emphasized the complementarities with other factors,
1:13:38 uh,
1:13:38 Emily.
1:13:40 Uh,
1:13:41 uh,
1:13:41 among other comments,
1:13:42 you know,
1:13:43 the,
1:13:43 the details and the nuance and understanding differences and impacts
1:13:46 is really where we're gonna get a lot of information.
1:13:49 Um,
1:13:50 I thought,
1:13:50 I thought both Rukmini and,
1:13:52 and,
1:13:52 and,
1:13:52 and Ritva's points about the links between research and,
1:13:55 and,
1:13:55 and practice and operations and,
1:13:57 and programs.
1:13:58 I,
1:13:59 I think still need,
1:14:00 you know,
1:14:00 we're highlighting how that,
1:14:01 that,
1:14:02 that linkage,
1:14:02 and I appreciate Ritter,
1:14:03 that you,
1:14:03 you're pointing out how difficult it is.
1:14:05 It's just not easy.
1:14:06 Uh,
1:14:06 but that doesn't mean we have to stop trying to,
1:14:08 to,
1:14:09 to,
1:14:09 to,
1:14:09 to do that better.
1:14:10 And I think everybody's pointed to sort of
1:14:12 directions where they see,
1:14:13 um,
1:14:14 future avenues for research,
1:14:16 which,
1:14:16 you know,
1:14:16 obviously,
1:14:17 us in the research department,
1:14:18 we,
1:14:19 you know,
1:14:19 this is sort of what we now need to go back and,
1:14:21 and,
1:14:21 and,
1:14:21 and think through and internalize.
1:14:23 So,
1:14:24 with that,
1:14:24 um,
1:14:25 let me thank everybody.
1:14:26 Let me give a particular thanks to the
1:14:29 Uh,
1:14:29 the program and the KCP Program Management Unit,
1:14:32 Karina,
1:14:32 Marcello,
1:14:33 Bintao,
1:14:33 who's not here,
1:14:34 and,
1:14:34 and Gabby for putting together this event,
1:14:36 uh,
1:14:37 which was really insightful,
1:14:38 and,
1:14:39 and I,
1:14:39 I'm a lot of food for thought.
1:14:41 And thank you all for participating both in the room and,
1:14:43 and online,
1:14:45 and look forward to our next,
1:14:46 uh,
1:14:47 KCP,
1:14:48 uh,
1:14:48 event that'll be in,
1:14:49 uh,
1:14:50 a couple of months,
1:14:51 and,
1:14:52 uh,
1:14:52 announcements will go out soon.
1:14:53 So thanks again,
1:14:54 everybody.
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