00:01 Um,
00:01 His Excellency will join very soon,
00:02 please.
00:07 Thank you.
00:10 Hello,
00:10 can you hear me,
00:11 please?
00:16 Yes,
00:16 we can,
00:16 we can hear you,
00:17 Samuel.
00:18 We heard that.
00:18 Thank you very much.
00:19 Yeah,
00:20 thanks for the confirmation.
01:22 I and Jason,
01:23 we need to wait for Mona before we go live.
01:25 So just,
01:26 just so you know.
01:29 Understood.
01:30 No,
01:30 no worries,
01:31 it's already running.
01:32 Um,
01:33 attendees are joining,
01:34 so whenever you're ready to start.
01:36 OK.
01:37 I know Mona Mona is here.
01:39 Um,
01:41 Mona,
01:41 just a quick note that we have uh simultaneous translation,
01:45 so you can mention that to the participants.
01:47 If they feel more comfortable,
01:48 they can
01:49 click an icon with the globe,
01:51 and that's where they will be taken to listen to the French version of the event.
02:00 Can you say that again,
02:01 Marilla?
02:03 Sorry,
02:03 Amana,
02:03 I was just saying that we have secured the simultaneous translation
02:08 um
02:09 to French,
02:10 so you can mention to the participants that if they want to be,
02:14 um,
02:14 they,
02:14 they would prefer to listen to the event in French,
02:17 that they need to click an icon with the globe at the bottom of the screen,
02:22 and they can listen in French instead.
02:26 Thank you.
02:31 So can we start?
02:37 Yep.
02:57 OK.
02:58 All right.
03:02 So,
03:03 good afternoon,
03:04 everyone.
03:05 And uh good afternoon,
03:07 um,
03:08 Your Excellency,
03:10 Honorable Secretary General
03:13 Mene,
03:13 um,
03:14 our World Bank Managing Director,
03:17 Doctor Marri Pangestu.
03:19 Uh,
03:20 representatives of the trade ministry,
03:22 um,
03:23 uh,
03:24 from Tunisia.
03:25 Um,
03:26 Mr.
03:27 Habisha and Jabali.
03:31 Uh,
03:31 very warm welcome to our panelists,
03:34 uh,
03:34 Edem
03:35 Azogenu of AfroChampions.
03:39 Uh,
03:39 Mr.
03:40 Dave Coffey of the African
03:42 Association of Automotive Manufacturers,
03:45 and
03:46 the IFC Director for Sector Economics,
03:49 Mr.
03:49 Issafai.
03:51 And warm welcome to all of you for joining us today.
03:56 Uh,
03:56 the ACFTA,
03:58 uh,
03:58 is an extremely
04:00 important initiative.
04:01 It can have transformative,
04:04 uh,
04:04 impacts,
04:05 uh,
04:05 for the,
04:06 for the development of Africa.
04:08 And we are very,
04:09 very happy to have,
04:10 uh,
04:11 this,
04:11 um,
04:12 seminar with you to show you,
04:14 uh,
04:15 some of the results of our,
04:17 uh,
04:17 work on,
04:18 on the ACFTA.
04:19 My name is Mona Haddad,
04:21 uh,
04:21 and I'm the global director for trade,
04:23 investment and competitiveness at the World Bank.
04:27 This study that I was mentioning has
04:29 been done in collaboration with the ACFTA Secretariat
04:34 and has greatly benefited from the guidance of His Excellency,
04:38 Secretary General,
04:40 Mr.
04:40 Wamkele
04:41 Mene.
04:42 We very much appreciate that you are here.
04:45 Thank you very much,
04:46 Your Excellency.
04:47 In addition to our numerous trade-related operations currently
04:52 ongoing at the country level across Africa,
04:55 the World Bank Group has been engaging with
04:57 the ACFTA Secretariat and the Regional Economic Communities
05:01 in their efforts to reduce barriers to economic integration
05:05 in Africa.
05:07 Uh,
05:07 let's start with a welcome from the World
05:09 Bank director for Regional integration in Africa,
05:13 uh,
05:13 Ms.
05:13 Buthaina Germazi,
05:15 who could not be with us today,
05:17 but will be making a pre-recorded welcome.
05:19 So over to you for
05:21 um
05:23 For the recording,
05:24 please.
05:37 Good afternoon everyone.
05:39 It is my pleasure to welcome you all to the launch of a pivotal report.
05:44 The report has been produced by a partnership
05:47 between the AFCFTA Secretariat and the World Bank.
05:51 is an analysis of how the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement
05:56 can boost growth and reduce poverty
05:59 by leveraging trade and foreign direct investments.
06:04 This report has benefited from the comprehensive guidance of His Excellency
06:10 Wam Kelly Pen,
06:11 the Secretary General of the AFCFTA Secretariat.
06:15 I would like to express our deep appreciation
06:19 for his visionary leadership in building the AFCFTA Secretariat
06:24 as the powerhouse fueling continental economic integration in Africa.
06:31 As an expert in international trade law,
06:33 he served law firms in London and Hong Kong prior to joining government.
06:38 He headed the South African mission to the WTO
06:41 and was South Africa's lead negotiator
06:44 in the AFCFTA.
06:47 The topic of the report is very dear to my
06:49 heart as the director for Regional integration in the World Bank
06:53 covering Africa
06:54 and the Middle East and North Africa regions.
06:57 The AFCFTA agreement promises to be a game-changer for regional integration
07:03 and consequently for growth and development in Africa.
07:08 It enables countries to overcome impediments to the free flow of goods,
07:13 services,
07:14 capital,
07:14 people,
07:15 and ideas.
07:16 Freer exchange across borders can
07:19 accelerate social and economic development.
07:24 Several sub-regional agreements on trade and investment facilitation
07:27 in smaller blocs do exist in Africa.
07:30 However,
07:31 the continent-wide scale of the AFCFTA
07:35 and its ambition to build an all-Africa synergy in trade
07:40 is unique
07:41 and laudable.
07:43 An open continental market with lower tariff and
07:46 non-tariff barriers for trading goods and services,
07:49 as well as fit for purpose rules on investment,
07:53 on competition,
07:54 intellectual property,
07:56 and e-commerce,
07:57 will help make Africa more competitive,
08:00 attract investment,
08:01 industrialize economies,
08:03 and reduce dependence on imports.
08:05 With this confidence in the promise of the AFCFTA,
08:09 the World Bank Group is stepping up
08:10 its engagement with the African Union Commission,
08:13 with the AFCFTA Secretariat,
08:15 and with regional economic commissions to support a faster
08:19 and better economic integration of Africa.
08:24 Today's event is just one link in the broader chain
08:27 of development cooperation between the bank and the AFCFTA Secretariat.
08:31 We were delighted
08:33 to have the opportunity to support the AFCFTA process
08:36 through analytics such as the report being launched today,
08:40 negotiation support,
08:41 compiling data and tools required to enable governments to negotiate commitments
08:46 and monitoring implementation.
08:49 Proper implementation is vital
08:52 to ensure that the benefits of the AFCFTA reach the last mile.
08:57 Focusing on tangible results will require concrete
09:00 activities and policy actions at national,
09:03 regional and
09:05 continental levels.
09:07 We look forward to continuing our close collaboration with the AFCFTA Secretariat
09:12 to support effective implementation of the AFCFTA treaty and protocols
09:17 and unlock its benefits for Africa and for the world.
09:22 I thank you for your attention and wish you all a good discussion today
09:26 on the rollout of the FCFTA in an effective
09:29 and efficient manner
09:31 across the continent.
09:36 Many thanks to Bina and as her role
09:40 of regional director for Africa,
09:43 we
09:44 heard the commitments of the World Bank to engage
09:47 with the African continent and make
09:50 this ACFTA
09:51 actually happen.
09:53 So I now turn to His Excellency Secretary General Mene,
09:58 who will make an opening address.
10:00 Secretary General Mene is an expert in law,
10:03 particularly international trade law.
10:06 He was the head of the South African mission to the WTO.
10:10 He also chaired the Committee on International
10:12 Trade of Financial Services at the WTO.
10:16 He was South Africa's lead negotiator in the ACFTA
10:20 and Chief Director
10:23 for Africa Economic relations in South Africa's Department of Trade and Industry.
10:27 Your Excellency,
10:28 the floor is yours,
10:29 and thank you again for joining us.
10:32 Thank you very much,
10:34 uh,
10:34 indeed for,
10:35 um,
10:36 uh,
10:36 for
10:37 inviting
10:38 me to participate in this event.
10:41 Um,
10:41 and thank you very much to the World Bank for the partnership
10:45 and,
10:46 uh,
10:46 the continued,
10:47 uh,
10:47 collaboration which started really,
10:50 um,
10:50 at the beginning of the negotiations.
10:53 And I want to thank in particular,
10:54 Roberto for his tireless efforts
10:57 to make sure that
10:59 we get the support that we needed,
11:02 uh,
11:03 to,
11:03 to,
11:03 to,
11:04 to reach
11:05 this
11:05 point of,
11:06 uh,
11:07 immense progress
11:08 that we have reached in less than 5 years.
11:11 And so,
11:11 I want to really express my very,
11:14 very sincere
11:15 appreciation to Roberto and his team,
11:18 uh,
11:19 who have worked,
11:19 as I say,
11:20 tirelessly over the last 5 years.
11:22 To support the work,
11:23 uh,
11:23 that we do.
11:25 Yesterday,
11:26 just yesterday,
11:27 I spoke at an event
11:29 and,
11:30 and I
11:31 reiterated
11:32 some of the very positive projections
11:35 from the 2020 report.
11:39 Uh,
11:39 today we have a new report,
11:41 which,
11:41 which is even more encouraging
11:43 in terms of its projections
11:45 about the AFCFTA.
11:48 Uh,
11:49 particularly
11:50 the,
11:51 um,
11:52 the AFCFTA as an enabler
11:55 for pushing back on the frontiers of poverty,
11:58 particularly
11:59 for,
12:00 um,
12:00 for women-led businesses,
12:02 closing the gender gap,
12:04 lifting millions and millions
12:06 of Africans out of poverty,
12:08 uh,
12:08 through
12:09 a trade instrument.
12:10 And I think that
12:12 there could not be a much more powerful
12:14 symbol
12:15 of what
12:17 Trade liberalization can do
12:20 for a country or a region or a continent's,
12:23 uh,
12:23 economic outlook.
12:25 I think these projections,
12:27 these very positive projections,
12:29 uh,
12:29 uh,
12:29 underscore
12:31 the importance of trade
12:32 and of course,
12:33 what we all know,
12:35 the,
12:35 the positive link between trade and,
12:38 uh,
12:38 development.
12:40 Let me give you a few,
12:42 uh,
12:42 uh,
12:42 let me for a few minutes,
12:44 give you an update
12:46 of where we are in the implementation of the AFCFTA
12:50 and why the report,
12:52 uh,
12:52 matters,
12:53 uh,
12:53 so much.
12:55 When we last spoke,
12:57 virtually,
12:58 when we had a similar event virtually in 2020,
13:01 as
13:02 we had at that time,
13:04 uh,
13:04 maybe a handful of countries
13:06 who had ratified the agreement establishing the AFCFTA.
13:11 Today,
13:11 we have 43 countries
13:13 that have ratified the AFCFTA.
13:17 We have only one country that has not signed the agreement.
13:22 To me,
13:23 this demonstrates
13:25 political will,
13:27 and of course,
13:27 it demonstrates legal commitment
13:30 to reduce barriers to trade
13:32 in Africa,
13:33 to reduce barriers to investment.
13:36 To tackle
13:37 long-standing challenges of industrial development on the African continent,
13:42 and of course,
13:43 using trade
13:44 as a tool,
13:46 uh,
13:46 for,
13:46 uh,
13:47 achieving regional and,
13:49 and global competitiveness.
13:51 And so,
13:51 it's clear in my mind that with these 43 countries that as we speak,
13:55 have ratified the agreement,
13:57 Uh,
13:57 that we will,
13:59 we have the requisite political will
14:01 that,
14:01 uh,
14:01 we need to,
14:03 to make even more progress
14:05 than we have achieved,
14:06 uh,
14:06 thus far.
14:08 We have,
14:09 um,
14:10 a,
14:10 an agreement that is very comprehensive in scope,
14:13 as you may be aware.
14:15 Uh,
14:16 we are negotiating the agreement in phases,
14:18 in phase 1 and in phase 2.
14:21 Phase one of the agreement includes trade in goods,
14:24 trade in services,
14:26 And dispute settlement.
14:28 These are the three
14:29 protocols
14:31 in phase one.
14:32 We have started
14:34 operationalizing the protocol on dispute settlement.
14:38 We are in the process of,
14:39 of appointing,
14:40 uh,
14:40 members of the appellate body
14:42 because we understand the significance,
14:45 and the importance
14:46 of predictability of markets,
14:49 certainty of markets,
14:51 the rule of trade law,
14:53 and of course,
14:54 um,
14:55 in this case,
14:56 the trade law being
14:58 the AFCFTA.
14:59 So,
14:59 the,
15:00 the protocol on
15:02 dispute settlement is well in the way of being operationalized and,
15:05 and being implemented.
15:07 Uh,
15:08 the protocol on,
15:09 uh,
15:10 trade in services.
15:12 Here,
15:12 we are,
15:13 um,
15:14 not making as fast progress as we are
15:17 in dispute settlement and in,
15:20 uh,
15:20 trade in goods,
15:21 which I will come to in a moment.
15:22 And that's to be expected,
15:24 uh,
15:24 because of the nature of the complexity
15:27 of,
15:27 uh,
15:28 trade and services agreements,
15:30 uh,
15:30 uh,
15:30 uh,
15:31 trade and services negotiations,
15:32 which require
15:33 Um,
15:34 extensive national consultations with regulators,
15:38 with professional,
15:39 uh,
15:39 bodies,
15:40 uh,
15:40 and a range of other domestic stakeholders.
15:43 However,
15:44 we do have 29 countries that have made,
15:48 uh,
15:48 offers,
15:49 uh,
15:49 services offers.
15:50 So the negotiations are,
15:52 are ongoing,
15:54 uh,
15:54 and we expect that by the end of the year,
15:57 we will see even more,
15:58 uh,
15:59 progress.
16:00 In the area of trading goods,
16:01 this is also where we have made tremendous progress.
16:05 We have reached agreement
16:08 on 88.87%,
16:12 I'm sorry,
16:12 88.8%
16:14 uh
16:15 convergence on rules of origin.
16:17 If you think about it,
16:19 In Africa,
16:20 we trade close to 5000 products,
16:23 close to 5000 products that we have been trading
16:26 using different rules,
16:28 uh,
16:28 from this region
16:29 to that region,
16:30 or of course,
16:31 using MFN rules,
16:33 WTO
16:34 rules.
16:35 We now have reached convergence
16:38 for preferential trade
16:40 on 88.8%. Rules of origin and that is,
16:45 is significant.
16:46 We are still negotiating the automotive sector,
16:49 which is about 1.3% of our tariff book.
16:53 We are still negotiating textiles and clothing,
16:56 which is about 13%.
16:59 And then
17:00 there's a scatter of uh different tariff lines
17:04 such as edible oils,
17:07 sugar,
17:07 and so on,
17:08 where we still need further negotiations.
17:12 The point is,
17:14 um,
17:14 we are as close to 90%,
17:17 uh,
17:17 as we possibly can be at this point,
17:21 and
17:22 we
17:23 have to start trading on the basis of these agreed rules of origin.
17:28 In less than 5 years,
17:30 uh,
17:30 we have been able to achieve this progress.
17:33 Um,
17:34 2 years of a pandemic.
17:37 So it has been incredibly difficult,
17:39 but,
17:39 uh,
17:40 I believe that we are now ready.
17:43 Um,
17:43 we've established the legal foundation,
17:46 that is the protocols that I've just mentioned.
17:49 Um,
17:50 we have the trading documents.
17:52 Uh,
17:53 we have certificates of origin.
17:55 Uh,
17:55 we have,
17:55 um,
17:56 origin declaration documents.
17:59 Uh,
17:59 next month,
18:00 we will publish the AFCFTA tariff book,
18:03 uh,
18:03 which is important for transparency and predictability
18:08 of traded products.
18:10 And so I believe
18:11 that with these um components,
18:14 uh,
18:14 we are indeed,
18:16 uh,
18:16 uh,
18:16 well on the way
18:18 to,
18:18 uh,
18:19 uh,
18:19 commercially meaningful trade.
18:22 So from our point of view,
18:23 phase one is almost concluded.
18:26 Of course,
18:27 uh,
18:27 at national level and regional economic level,
18:30 which is customs unions,
18:32 that's where
18:34 the rubber hits the road.
18:35 That's where we expect the implementation to happen.
18:39 That's where we expect
18:41 the trade to happen.
18:43 We have been working very closely
18:45 for the last 2 years with heads of customs authorities in Africa.
18:52 This year alone,
18:53 we have had about 5 or 6 meetings
18:55 with customs authorities
18:57 so that we improve their capacity
19:00 to implement the agreement,
19:02 enhance their understanding
19:04 of the obligations under the agreement.
19:07 And
19:08 uh give them the due recognition
19:10 that they deserve
19:11 that customs authorities
19:13 will really be at the cutting
19:15 edge
19:15 of implementation of this agreement.
19:18 And so,
19:19 we are working very,
19:20 very closely
19:21 with customs authorities who are required
19:23 and are very important
19:25 for implementation of the AFCTA.
19:28 We're also working very closely with customs authorities
19:31 and regional economic communities.
19:34 We have just had a meeting,
19:35 uh,
19:35 two months ago
19:37 of regional economic communities,
19:39 uh,
19:39 where we discussed this issue of coordination
19:42 in the implementation
19:44 of the AFCFTA.
19:47 Now,
19:48 phase two
19:49 is,
19:49 um,
19:50 all of the issues that,
19:53 um,
19:54 we were directed by the heads of states to
19:57 include
19:58 in the legal architecture of the agreement
20:01 as a complementary
20:03 to the trade liberalization that we want to see.
20:06 And phase two includes
20:08 a protocol or protocols
20:10 on investment.
20:12 That is to say,
20:13 investment protection and facilitation.
20:16 On digital trade,
20:17 on intellectual property rights,
20:20 on competition.
20:21 And more importantly,
20:23 for inclusion,
20:24 a protocol on women and youth in trade.
20:28 We started this negotiation of the phase 2 protocols
20:33 late last year.
20:34 We were delayed by the pandemic,
20:37 and now that negotiation
20:39 is proceeding.
20:41 We have a deadline to conclude
20:44 these protocols
20:45 by the end of September this year.
20:49 We believe
20:51 that,
20:51 uh,
20:51 this comprehensive approach
20:54 of including
20:55 the traditional areas
20:57 of trade,
20:58 trade in goods,
20:59 trade in services,
21:00 as well as digital trade,
21:03 um,
21:04 a protocol on digital trade which will embed
21:07 into legally binding obligations,
21:09 a regulatory framework.
21:12 For electronic trade and commerce,
21:14 uh,
21:15 in Africa,
21:16 uh,
21:16 which will include,
21:17 uh,
21:18 uh,
21:18 payments,
21:19 uh,
21:20 regulations on payments,
21:22 the data processing and the movement of,
21:24 um,
21:24 of,
21:25 of,
21:25 of data
21:26 across,
21:27 uh,
21:28 countries in the AFCFTA,
21:30 uh,
21:30 uh,
21:31 state parties.
21:32 It's a very important uh tool,
21:34 especially as we all know,
21:36 uh,
21:36 given the pandemic,
21:38 but also,
21:39 more importantly,
21:41 given the fact that
21:42 Africa,
21:43 as you know,
21:44 has been,
21:45 um,
21:45 at the,
21:46 at the,
21:46 uh,
21:47 really at the center
21:48 of technological and digital advancements.
21:51 You will remember
21:53 that,
21:53 um,
21:54 the first country to ever introduce mobile payments uh in the world,
21:58 uh,
21:59 is,
21:59 uh,
21:59 is Kenya
22:01 through M-PESA,
22:02 which has,
22:03 which has really revolutionized
22:06 how trade
22:07 um
22:08 and has ensured that trade.
22:11 Reaches millions and millions of people,
22:13 uh,
22:13 and has ensured that we see
22:16 inclusion
22:17 of trade and finance,
22:19 uh,
22:19 through this,
22:20 uh,
22:20 uh,
22:21 mobile enabled,
22:23 uh,
22:23 technology.
22:24 And so,
22:25 these are the areas that we want to capture
22:27 in the protocol
22:28 on digital trade.
22:31 There are other tools that we have introduced
22:34 because uh
22:36 we have a very unique context
22:38 in Africa.
22:39 We cannot just negotiate
22:42 a trade agreement and leave it.
22:44 We have to introduce
22:46 complementary tools for implementation
22:49 of the trade agreement.
22:51 And I will take a minute
22:53 to mention just a few.
22:55 First,
22:56 um,
22:57 is the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System,
23:00 which along with African Bank,
23:02 uh,
23:03 we,
23:03 uh,
23:03 launched on the 13th
23:05 of January this year here in Accra.
23:08 And really,
23:09 the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System takes account of
23:12 the cost
23:13 of currency convertibility,
23:16 the challenge of,
23:17 uh,
23:17 um,
23:18 uh,
23:18 inefficiency
23:20 of having
23:21 42 currencies
23:23 and the impact that has on trade.
23:25 Uh,
23:26 as well as the need for inclusivity,
23:30 particularly for small medium enterprises
23:32 and young entrepreneurs.
23:34 We now have 48 commercial banks that are trading on the platform.
23:38 Uh,
23:39 uh,
23:39 you,
23:40 you can be in Accra
23:42 and trade with somebody,
23:44 um,
23:44 in another part of the continent.
23:47 You can be in Accra
23:49 and you trade with your counterparty
23:51 in Egypt
23:52 using your local currency,
23:54 Ghanaian CD.
23:55 Your counterparty that you transact with
23:58 in,
23:58 uh,
23:59 Egypt will receive,
24:01 uh,
24:01 in Egyptian pounds.
24:03 And so,
24:04 the,
24:05 first of all,
24:05 the,
24:05 the,
24:06 the,
24:06 the first objective of the payment system
24:09 is to ensure we,
24:11 that we
24:12 enhance
24:13 competitiveness of our small medium enterprises,
24:17 as well as ensure inclusivity.
24:20 By
24:21 spreading this
24:22 availability of this tool to as many people as possible
24:26 so that they can trade
24:27 across regions and across borders.
24:30 This will be a game changer for trade on the African continent.
24:35 42 currencies is
24:37 a constraint
24:38 to
24:39 to trade.
24:40 It presents unnecessary costs
24:42 to trade.
24:43 $5 billion by our estimate
24:46 is the cost of currency convertibility
24:48 as a result of relying on a third currency
24:53 when we want to trade amongst one another as Africans.
24:56 The second important tool.
24:58 Is the AFCFTA adjustment fund.
25:01 And through the AFCFTA adjustment fund,
25:04 um,
25:05 we intend to assist countries
25:07 who will,
25:08 uh,
25:09 in one way or the other,
25:10 suffer adjustment costs as a result of implementation
25:14 of the AFCFTA.
25:16 We know that,
25:17 um,
25:17 uh,
25:17 not,
25:18 not all countries
25:19 will be immediate beneficiaries
25:22 because,
25:23 uh,
25:23 countries
25:24 on our continent are at different levels
25:26 of industrial capacity.
25:29 Different levels,
25:30 uh,
25:30 of export,
25:31 uh,
25:31 readiness or export capacity.
25:34 And so we have to take account of that,
25:36 and we have to take account of the fact that many countries
25:40 continue to rely
25:41 on,
25:41 um,
25:42 on,
25:42 on tariffs as a revenue generating tool.
25:46 So,
25:46 as they eliminate their tariffs,
25:48 as they reduce and eliminate their tariffs,
25:51 we have to find,
25:52 uh,
25:52 other ways
25:53 of providing them with the support that they need.
25:56 But the AFCFTA adjustment fund is not going to be,
26:00 it's not intended for budget support.
26:03 It is intended for productive sector,
26:05 uh,
26:06 support
26:07 to an industry,
26:08 in country
26:09 or to a,
26:11 a sector.
26:13 A country may decide that,
26:15 um,
26:15 we would like to retrain our workers
26:18 and deploy them
26:19 in another part of the economy.
26:22 Uh,
26:23 an example is,
26:24 I have just come back two months ago from Lesotho,
26:27 and there's a very,
26:28 very globally competitive,
26:30 uh,
26:31 globally competitive manufacturing plant.
26:33 They manufacture,
26:35 um,
26:35 uh,
26:36 uh,
26:36 car seats.
26:38 Employing over 750 people,
26:41 many of them women,
26:43 paying decent salaries,
26:45 but the government had to
26:49 invest significant amounts
26:51 to train
26:53 the workers who were going to be
26:56 employed in that
26:58 factory.
26:59 Which is part of an automotive value chain.
27:02 Uh,
27:03 and so,
27:04 the adjustment fund is envisaged
27:06 in such a way that,
27:08 uh,
27:08 in the example that I cite of Lesotho,
27:11 the government of Lesotho would have had access to the fund,
27:14 to the AFCFTA adjustment fund,
27:16 so that the workers are retrained
27:18 and that they are deployed,
27:20 um,
27:20 in,
27:21 in decent paying jobs
27:22 that require a high level of skill
27:25 and,
27:25 and,
27:26 and training.
27:27 The 3rd area,
27:28 uh,
27:29 the 3rd tool rather,
27:30 rather,
27:30 which is also very important.
27:33 Is
27:33 um the trade finance facility.
27:37 Trade finance facility,
27:38 which we're in the process of negotiating
27:41 to enable small-medium enterprises,
27:43 particularly those that are led by women,
27:46 um,
27:46 and young entrepreneurs
27:48 to have access,
27:49 uh,
27:49 to,
27:50 uh,
27:50 the entire African market.
27:53 Uh,
27:53 the cost
27:54 of trade finance is very high.
27:56 Uh,
27:57 the access to trade finance is very low.
28:00 Um,
28:01 some commercial banks do have,
28:03 uh,
28:03 trade finance portfolios,
28:05 but as we all know,
28:06 the,
28:07 the uptake is very,
28:08 very low.
28:09 And so we have to do more.
28:10 We have to mobilize our development finance institutions,
28:14 uh,
28:15 the African Development Bank,
28:16 African Bank,
28:17 and others,
28:18 and others
28:19 to ensure that,
28:20 um,
28:21 access to trade finance
28:23 is,
28:23 uh,
28:24 improved,
28:25 working with,
28:26 uh,
28:26 uh,
28:27 all relevant,
28:28 uh,
28:28 uh,
28:28 uh,
28:28 stakeholders.
28:30 Your Excellency,
28:32 uh,
28:32 this is,
28:33 uh,
28:33 so I,
28:34 I would like to,
28:35 um,
28:36 ask if you could possibly,
28:37 um,
28:39 um,
28:39 uh,
28:40 finalize your comments,
28:41 uh,
28:42 as we have other speakers waiting,
28:44 um,
28:45 so please
28:45 go ahead.
28:46 Thank you.
28:47 Yes,
28:47 the last area I would mention,
28:49 thank you very much.
28:50 The last area I would mention,
28:51 which again is,
28:52 is,
28:52 uh,
28:53 is important,
28:54 is,
28:54 uh,
28:55 the,
28:55 the trade corridors.
28:57 Um,
28:57 we are taking steps
28:59 to make sure that
29:01 the interventions that were made in other parts
29:03 of the continent that led to successful,
29:06 um,
29:07 uh,
29:07 successfully and competitive trade corridors,
29:10 such as the East African Community.
29:12 That we model,
29:14 uh,
29:14 we use that model to expand to the rest of
29:16 the continent to ensure the effectiveness of our trade,
29:19 uh,
29:20 of our trade,
29:21 uh,
29:21 uh,
29:21 corridors.
29:22 So these are the interventions that we have
29:24 made since the establishment of the AFCFTA Secretariat,
29:28 because we recognize
29:29 that an agreement by itself,
29:31 uh,
29:32 with the positive projections that you have made,
29:34 that the agreement by itself is not adequate.
29:37 We have to introduce other tools
29:39 to make sure that,
29:40 um,
29:41 we
29:41 See successful implementation of the AFCFTA.
29:44 So,
29:44 thank you very much for the,
29:46 um,
29:47 the opportunity.
29:48 I slightly ran over time,
29:50 but I think it's a very,
29:51 very important,
29:52 uh,
29:53 to provide you with a comprehensive update
29:55 of where we are
29:57 in the implementation of the AFCFTA.
29:59 Thank you very much.
30:00 Thank you very much,
30:01 Your Excellency.
30:03 Indeed,
30:03 this update was of tremendous use,
30:06 and,
30:07 and actually the challenges you are facing,
30:10 as you mentioned,
30:11 are very similar to other regional
30:15 integration or free trade agreements that are being implemented.
30:19 So
30:20 you are doing extremely well.
30:22 Uh,
30:22 and I also appreciate that you are
30:25 already thinking about the complementary actions,
30:28 because by itself,
30:29 uh,
30:30 the,
30:30 the agreement will not lead necessarily to the impact uh you
30:34 are looking for unless these complementary actions are taken into account.
30:38 So thank you so much for joining us and thank you for this uh great update.
30:44 Uh,
30:44 let me,
30:45 um,
30:46 uh,
30:46 invite our senior economist,
30:48 uh,
30:48 Marilla,
30:49 uh,
30:50 Malisquestra.
30:51 Um,
30:53 who is one of the main authors of the report to present
30:56 the results of our study.
30:58 Thank you,
30:59 Marilla.
30:59 Over to you.
31:01 Thank you so much.
31:02 Good morning.
31:02 Good afternoon,
31:03 everyone.
31:04 Um,
31:04 let me share my screen.
31:06 Um,
31:08 So it's taking a while.
31:14 OK.
31:23 and um
31:30 Um,
31:31 can you see my screen?
31:31 It's all good.
31:33 You have to change the display settings.
31:35 Just click drop down and switch it off.
31:38 The trouble is that it won't let me.
31:41 Oh,
31:46 OK,
31:46 perfect.
31:48 OK.
31:51 So once again,
31:52 thank you for joining us today and um as um I'd like to
31:56 start by saying uh a huge thank you to the AFCFTA Secretariat,
32:01 um,
32:01 who's uh the colleagues from the Secretariat have been extremely um
32:06 uh helpful in providing guidance and continued collaboration on this report.
32:10 So just a big thank you also to the team of researchers,
32:14 colleagues from within and outside the bank who have contributed to this report.
32:18 Um,
32:19 The AFCFTA
32:22 has the ambition of linking 55 countries with 1.3 billion people
32:27 and a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion
32:31 into one single market.
32:32 It provides a tremendous opportunity to stimulate Africa's trade and
32:37 investment and thereby contributing to its industrialization,
32:42 to accelerate economic growth and create new jobs and reduce poverty.
32:46 Um,
32:48 the negotiations are progressing well,
32:50 and there's no one better to tell you about it than the Secretary General,
32:54 so,
32:54 um,
32:55 I will
32:56 not be going into details here just to say that we,
33:00 uh,
33:00 this is exactly what we're looking at in our study at the,
33:03 um,
33:04 thesevi AFCFTA negotiation phases and what they mean in terms of
33:08 the gains in terms of trade and growth and jobs.
33:12 Um,
33:13 so together all these ambitious steps,
33:16 um,
33:16 uh,
33:17 in terms of the liberalization of trading goods and services,
33:20 harmonization of the rules,
33:22 uh,
33:22 in terms of competition,
33:24 investment,
33:24 digital trade,
33:26 um,
33:26 intellectual property rights,
33:28 they have the potential to boost income in Africa by 9%
33:32 and the 150 million people out of extreme poverty by 2035.
33:38 It also has the potential to create 18 million new jobs.
33:43 Uh,
33:43 let me
33:44 explain how this potential could be realized.
33:48 In our report,
33:50 we have explored three possible implementation scenarios.
33:54 First,
33:55 we start with the baseline scenario,
33:57 which is what would have happened and what would be the parcel of growth,
34:01 investment,
34:02 trade,
34:02 uh,
34:02 jobs
34:03 if the AFCFTA did not take place.
34:07 And then we compare our scenarios against this baseline without the AFCFTA.
34:12 And those who are familiar with our 2020
34:15 report will have seen the trade scenario already,
34:18 where we look at the reduction in tariffs,
34:20 we look at the reduction of non-tariff measures in trade in goods and services,
34:25 and the implementation of trade facilitation measures.
34:29 What we do in this report,
34:30 we extend the analysis to include two additional scenarios.
34:34 The FDI broad
34:36 scenario
34:37 builds on the previous scenario by adding the changes in FDI flows
34:42 to account for the boost in FDI coming from the AFCFTA,
34:47 just basically covering the preferential agreement cover all
34:51 countries at the continent.
34:53 So
34:53 there's no longer the spaghetti bowl of regional agreements.
34:56 There's one single FTA.
34:59 Then we look at the FDAD scenario and what we do here,
35:02 we basically look at the expansion of scope and depth of the commitments.
35:07 So we're just also adding all this phase two and phase 3,
35:12 topics,
35:12 harmonization of rules and reduction the resulting reduction of
35:17 trade costs and additional boost to FDI coming from
35:20 the harmonization of those policies.
35:23 So once we have those three scenarios,
35:25 um,
35:26 we look at the implications for,
35:28 for growth and trade and investment,
35:30 poverty reduction,
35:31 jobs,
35:31 and,
35:32 and,
35:32 and so on.
35:34 First,
35:35 let me start by saying what do we think might happen
35:38 to the potential loss of FDI as a result of AFCFTA.
35:43 Um,
35:44 what we,
35:45 uh,
35:45 what our estimates have shown is that the,
35:48 uh,
35:48 the AFCFTA could provide a significant boost to intra-Africa flows
35:54 of foreign direct investment.
35:55 The Intra-Africa FDI could increase between 64 and 68%
36:01 relative to its,
36:02 uh,
36:02 level of in 2017,
36:05 uh,
36:05 depending on the level of ambition of the agreement.
36:08 We also foresee an increase in FDI from outside of the region.
36:13 And what the most ambitious scenario,
36:16 these inflows could actually more than double.
36:21 Foreign investment brings know-how and helps firms
36:24 join the regional and global value chains
36:26 in boosting productivity.
36:29 Deepening trade flows and diversifying to other industries
36:32 could reduce Africa's dependence on volatile commodity exports.
36:37 What we see is that exports between African countries,
36:39 especially manufactured goods,
36:41 could double by 2035,
36:43 and this would generate
36:45 this additional boost to trade investment
36:47 could generate significant income gains.
36:49 We estimate.
36:50 That the
36:52 income gains could reach 571 billion by 2035 at the continental level.
36:58 This would create higher paid,
36:59 better quality jobs,
37:01 especially for women.
37:03 When we look at the results across countries,
37:05 we see that uh all countries see the potential to gain from AFCFTA.
37:11 The biggest,
37:12 the,
37:12 the gains range from
37:14 5 to 15% uh in terms of income boost by 2035.
37:19 Again,
37:19 we're comparing to the scenario,
37:21 uh,
37:22 the baseline scenario with no AFCFTA.
37:25 Uh,
37:25 the biggest income gains are expected in Cote d'Ivoire,
37:29 Zimbabwe,
37:29 and Namibia,
37:30 and an average boost to income of 9% in the continental level,
37:34 um,
37:35 could be expected.
37:37 Now,
37:37 uh,
37:38 just by accounting for the impact of FDI,
37:41 we see an additional gains of 20% on average compared to our 2020 scenario,
37:47 uh,
37:48 2020 report.
37:50 However,
37:50 these are really conservative estimates and should be
37:53 seen as a lower bound of the gains,
37:56 um,
37:56 that come originally from the 2020 report covering the reduction of tariffs,
38:01 non-tariff measures,
38:02 and trade facilitation.
38:04 The most ambitious scenario,
38:06 the FTA
38:07 deep scenario,
38:08 uh,
38:09 increases the gains,
38:10 especially for some smaller countries which are in bad need of FDI
38:14 new investment flows and which are originally facing really high trade costs,
38:19 and such small countries include Burkina Faso,
38:22 Senegal,
38:22 and Namibia.
38:24 Just to give you uh an uh uh a bit of a,
38:28 and a more in-depth uh view of what might happen to,
38:31 to trade flows,
38:33 we see that the,
38:34 um,
38:34 the
38:35 AFCFTA really provides a significant boost to Intra-African flows.
38:40 Uh,
38:40 exports.
38:41 For example,
38:42 the biggest gains would be expected in manufacturing,
38:45 up to 134%,
38:47 uh,
38:48 quite a significant boost trade in services,
38:51 boosting overall exports by over 109%.
38:56 Overall total exports from the continent,
38:58 so just combining into an extra African flows could increase by about 30%.
39:04 If we have the successful implementation of the ambitious
39:08 agreement as compared to the baseline without the agreement.
39:11 So significant gains to be realized there.
39:13 And finally,
39:15 these gains in trade and FDI that
39:18 boost growth have significant implications for poverty
39:21 reduction.
39:23 So what we estimate is that the number of
39:26 poor would have increased in the baseline from 479
39:31 million
39:32 to 317.
39:34 We're talking about extreme poor living at $1 a day,
39:38 $1.90 a day.
39:39 And purchasing power parity terms.
39:42 What we see is that the AFCFTA has the potential to reduce
39:46 the number of extreme poor by the additional 50 million by 2035
39:51 and of course the number increases with the degree of ambition of the agreement.
39:57 Finally,
39:57 just to give you a two very,
39:59 um,
40:00 22 country examples,
40:03 uh,
40:03 we have results for about 30 countries,
40:05 but if you look specifically at each
40:07 country depending on their comparative advantage and,
40:10 and the trade cost reduction,
40:12 the,
40:13 the different sectors are likely to,
40:15 to benefit.
40:15 Of course,
40:16 there are some sectors that could potentially lose wages
40:18 here highlight the top 3 sectors that would,
40:21 could see a boost to employment.
40:23 Um,
40:24 of selected Tunisia because of the delegation of
40:27 the Tunisian minister we'll be speaking to later,
40:30 and we could see the potential of the equipment to generate jobs in textiles,
40:34 in manufacturing,
40:35 in processed food,
40:36 and those have the potential to boost wages by about 1510 to 15%.
40:41 Depending on the intensity of the employment in those sectors,
40:45 uh,
40:46 um,
40:46 and different types of workers are likely to gain,
40:49 uh,
40:49 as a result on average.
40:51 In Tunisia,
40:52 it so happens that because,
40:53 um,
40:54 the,
40:55 um,
40:56 Uh,
40:56 some of the sectors are at risky intensive like manufacturing and processed food.
41:00 Those wages of workers of skilled workers could grow a bit faster than unskilled,
41:04 but everyone gains.
41:06 On the other hand,
41:07 in the case of Rwanda,
41:08 we see a faster growth of female and unskilled workers,
41:11 but again,
41:13 everybody's wages are growing faster
41:15 in case of the agreement.
41:17 Just to wrap up,
41:18 what are the steps to unlock the potential of the AFCFTA,
41:22 and this is really what um
41:24 what um
41:25 Secretary General has already mentioned,
41:28 and,
41:29 you know,
41:29 what needs to happen to translate these opportunities that
41:32 the AFCFTA provides into more export investment and jobs.
41:36 And there's several elements,
41:38 um,
41:39 so.
41:40 It's critical to increase the ownership of
41:42 the private sector in the AFCFTA process.
41:45 Uh,
41:46 it will be,
41:47 will be the enterprises,
41:48 not the governments that will generate this
41:50 trade and investment and economic expansion.
41:54 Further,
41:54 it's critical to pair the AFCFTA with a strong complementary agenda.
41:59 Governments with the support of the regional economy communities and of
42:02 course the AFCFTA Permanent Secretariat
42:05 should engage in multi-stakeholder consultations.
42:08 Um,
42:09 in each country to prepare a robust
42:11 complementary set of actions and policies aiming
42:15 to three concrete objectives.
42:17 This is treaty administration,
42:18 cross-agency implementation,
42:20 and transition to free trade.
42:22 What do we mean by those terms?
42:24 Treaty administration is to really the ability of the trade ministers to,
42:28 to enforce the implementations,
42:31 to monitor,
42:31 to undertake problem solving activities benefiting the private sector
42:36 when trading.
42:37 Cross agency implementation really means establishing some coordination
42:42 protocols and enhance capacity of those agencies,
42:46 uh,
42:46 that have impact on trading goods and services
42:49 such as customs,
42:50 SPS,
42:51 uh,
42:51 regulatory bodies for services sectors.
42:53 And finally,
42:54 the transition to free trade
42:56 means that monitoring the impact on Sectors uh addressing um any
43:01 uh potential uh vulnerabilities and the
43:05 workers that might be potentially displaced,
43:07 setting mechanisms to ensure the smooth transition
43:10 that it's uh that benefits,
43:12 um,
43:12 um,
43:13 um,
43:14 as many sectors as possible,
43:16 uh,
43:16 in this transition to open
43:18 uh continental market
43:20 just to wrap up.
43:22 As the Secretary General keeps saying,
43:24 the time for change is now.
43:26 I'm hoping,
43:27 uh,
43:27 I've convinced you that our team has come up with the
43:31 analysis that really shows significant benefit
43:34 of the implementation of the AFCFTA,
43:37 but of course,
43:37 significant challenges remain,
43:39 and I'm looking forward to hearing from the
43:42 panelists,
43:42 um,
43:43 to discuss the role of the government and the private sector in
43:46 making this agreement a success that it has the potential to be.
43:50 Thank you so much.
43:55 Thank you very much,
43:56 Marilla.
43:56 Uh,
43:57 let us move now to the fire chat,
44:00 and we have with us Doctor Marie Pangestu.
44:04 Uh,
44:04 she's the managing director for Development Policy
44:07 and Partnerships at the World Bank.
44:09 Dr.
44:10 Pangestu has also had a political career serving as Indonesia's Minister of Trade,
44:16 as well as tourism and the Creative Economy Minister
44:20 for 10 years between 2004 and 2014.
44:24 She's an international expert on a range of global.
44:27 Issues and has vast experience
44:30 over 30 years in academia,
44:32 international organizations,
44:34 and government
44:35 working in areas related to international trade,
44:38 investment and development,
44:40 multilateral,
44:41 regional,
44:42 and
44:43 national settings.
44:45 Um,
44:46 we also have,
44:48 uh,
44:48 Mrs.
44:49 Saida Hashisha,
44:51 uh,
44:51 director of Economic and commercial cooperation,
44:53 and Mr.
44:54 Shawki Jabali,
44:55 director of Africa
44:57 from the Ministry
44:58 of Trade
45:00 of Tunisia.
45:02 Attending on behalf of Mr.
45:04 Minister Rabi,
45:05 who could not
45:07 attend
45:08 and had to cancel.
45:12 Unexpectedly,
45:15 so we are,
45:16 let me start
45:17 with you,
45:18 Ibu Mari.
45:20 When you were Trade Minister
45:22 of Indonesia,
45:24 you were responsible for regional trade negotiations,
45:27 including with ASEAN.
45:28 And in fact you served as chairperson of ASEAN in 2011.
45:34 Please tell us about your experience in those roles.
45:37 What steps does a government need to
45:39 take to benefit from greater regional integration?
45:43 Over to you,
45:44 uh,
45:44 Marie.
45:46 Uh,
45:46 thank you,
45:47 uh,
45:47 Mona,
45:48 and good good day to,
45:50 uh,
45:51 everybody,
45:52 uh,
45:52 on this,
45:53 uh,
45:53 call.
45:54 Let me just,
45:55 uh,
45:55 share if I can,
45:57 uh,
45:57 four things,
45:58 uh,
45:58 my own learning,
46:00 uh,
46:00 through my journey with,
46:01 uh,
46:02 both
46:03 doing the analysis as well as trying to implement,
46:06 uh,
46:06 regional integration in the Asian context
46:09 and what,
46:10 uh,
46:10 we can learn from that,
46:11 uh,
46:12 in,
46:12 in today's context as we
46:15 have seen a very strong political commitment
46:19 for the first time,
46:20 uh,
46:20 in,
46:20 you know,
46:20 in the breadth and depth
46:23 of the ACF,
46:25 uh,
46:26 AFCTA.
46:28 Uh,
46:28 did I get that right?
46:29 AF
46:30 AFCFTA,
46:32 I missed the F.
46:34 Um,
46:35 uh,
46:35 I,
46:36 I would really like to just share 4 things.
46:38 Um,
46:38 I think first is
46:40 building the case for the benefits,
46:42 uh,
46:42 of the regional integration,
46:44 which,
46:45 uh,
46:45 I think this report has,
46:46 uh,
46:47 is really going to help,
46:49 uh,
46:49 to,
46:49 uh,
46:50 emphasize the benefits,
46:52 uh,
46:52 from the,
46:53 the regional economic integration,
46:55 whether it's growth,
46:57 uh,
46:57 job creation,
46:58 poverty reduction.
47:00 Uh,
47:01 and inclusiveness,
47:02 and you have to kind of go beyond the,
47:05 the,
47:05 the,
47:06 the big numbers
47:08 to
47:08 finding examples in sectors
47:11 and,
47:12 you know,
47:12 because it's called a trade agreement,
47:14 a lot of,
47:15 there's always a lot of misperception that this is only about trade,
47:18 but a lot of the benefits will come from investment.
47:21 So you have to make sure you,
47:23 you see the nexus between trade
47:25 and investment coming through.
47:27 And
47:29 typically most trade agreements,
47:31 as this one in the first phase is going to look at the cross,
47:35 cross border barriers which is the trade
47:37 non-tariff measures and the trade facilitation,
47:40 and I just wanted to emphasize on,
47:43 on facilitating the movement of goods and people
47:48 is kind of key
47:50 and it is sometimes the easier part.
47:53 Of,
47:53 of,
47:54 uh,
47:54 of a trade agreement
47:56 and it goes beyond just the,
47:59 the,
47:59 the regulations,
48:01 you know,
48:01 like in the case of trade facilitation,
48:04 having a single window,
48:05 for instance,
48:07 in each country and then having the single
48:09 window talk to each other between countries,
48:11 that's one part of it.
48:13 But in the case of Africa,
48:15 what I did learn from my trying to understand.
48:19 Uh,
48:19 what would make it,
48:20 what would
48:21 it take to work in Africa?
48:23 I think the infrastructure connectivity is going to be key
48:27 to,
48:27 to be in parallel,
48:29 uh,
48:29 with the,
48:30 um,
48:31 with the,
48:31 uh,
48:32 you know,
48:32 the agreement on customs and,
48:34 and goods movement and so on.
48:36 So I think
48:37 coupling that with,
48:38 uh,
48:38 with the
48:40 road as well as because we're talking about digital
48:43 telecommunications connectivity,
48:45 I think will be important.
48:46 And the final thing I would say about benefits is
48:50 the way we used to explain,
48:52 especially to the,
48:53 uh,
48:54 to the,
48:55 you know,
48:55 because you have different levels of development.
48:57 You have the same
48:58 case here and you've got
49:00 many,
49:00 many more countries here.
49:01 You've got
49:02 52 countries
49:04 and 43 are already on board.
49:06 The lesser.
49:07 Developed compared to the more developed,
49:09 the lesser developed needs to be the capacity building and the
49:14 kind of you have,
49:15 you are on a slower timeline or you are doing it with capacity building
49:20 is going to be important to provide the arguments
49:23 for these countries to face their
49:26 constituency.
49:28 Second,
49:28 you will always hear this the countries and the
49:32 sectors that feel that they are going to be,
49:35 you know,
49:35 squashed or disappear with regional integration,
49:39 you need to really have a discussion with the private sector,
49:43 with
49:44 all the stakeholders
49:46 to assure them that.
49:48 A
49:50 transition will happen.
49:51 There will be capacity building.
49:54 There will be the time to adjust.
49:56 There will be
49:58 opportunity because the static benefits that you have outlined,
50:02 I would say the benefits that you've outlined in your report
50:05 tend tend to be static,
50:07 and we know with all regional integration
50:09 the dynamic benefits.
50:10 benefits can be larger than what we are seeing now as the kind of static benefits,
50:16 and you can reflect on on other regional integration
50:19 on that.
50:20 And I think I just want to emphasize that for Africa
50:24 this is so timely because of all that's happening
50:27 in the world today,
50:28 the fact that,
50:29 you know,
50:30 apart from COVID trade in the
50:32 importance of trade in recovery and development
50:35 mentioned by the Secretary General Mendez.
50:39 I think you can see that the supply chain disruptions
50:42 and this kind of resilience versus efficiency
50:46 discussion is leading to regional value chains.
50:49 So I think the benefits of,
50:52 you know,
50:53 in a region.
50:55 to have different countries have
50:58 different complementarities that you can build regional value chains,
51:01 I think needs to be
51:03 really emphasized in the case
51:05 of Africa.
51:06 In the case of ASEAN,
51:07 we actually at the time
51:09 looked at intraregional complementarity
51:13 to increase our regional.
51:15 Competitiveness vis a vis the external market as well
51:18 as for our own regional market,
51:20 and I would like to suggest that this is still a valid argument,
51:24 especially in the case of building regional value chains.
51:27 You can take food
51:28 where Africa is mainly
51:31 importing food.
51:32 This would be a really great opportunity to develop that.
51:36 A third point,
51:37 distribution.
51:38 This is the complementary agenda that I think was emphasized in the report.
51:43 You do have to make sure
51:45 that you address the distribution
51:47 potential distribution effects,
51:49 and it will need complementary policies.
51:52 I heard the Secretary Mendez mention.
51:55 Uh,
51:56 there was a protocol on women and youth,
51:59 uh,
52:00 and,
52:00 you know,
52:00 how to make sure that translates into national policies.
52:04 The final thing I would say,
52:05 I would
52:06 add is that
52:07 I think that in your last slide,
52:10 Marilla,
52:10 you had,
52:11 uh,
52:12 you had,
52:13 uh,
52:13 you know,
52:14 engaging
52:15 in multi-stakeholder consultation by government.
52:17 Um,
52:18 and it is about ownership with the private sector.
52:21 It is about the stakeholders.
52:22 I just wanted to mention one learning
52:24 on the government side.
52:26 It is about treaty administration and
52:29 And so on,
52:30 but I tell you,
52:32 the two things that I would share from our own experience with ASEAN,
52:36 I think it's still a continued process,
52:39 is how do you get interagency
52:42 coordination
52:43 that is really key
52:44 for each country to be able to implement this free trade agreement.
52:48 And in the case of ASEAN,
52:50 in the end
52:51 there was an agreement,
52:52 and this,
52:53 I think the Secretariat can reflect on this,
52:55 to actually
52:57 have countries
52:58 create,
53:01 you know,
53:01 it would be called AFCT,
53:06 AFCFTA
53:09 coordination task force
53:12 within each country
53:14 that needs to be headed
53:15 pretty high up in the government.
53:18 And they serve to be the coordination body to implement
53:22 the different parts of the agreement and to,
53:24 you know,
53:24 do their job in terms of following up with,
53:27 with each of these agencies.
53:28 Without that,
53:31 it really is tough to make it work
53:33 and that those bodies are the ones that need to make it happen.
53:37 And those are the bodies that need to be supported by capacity building
53:41 to,
53:42 you know,
53:43 support,
53:44 facilitate
53:47 the different agencies to be able to meet the different,
53:50 um,
53:50 the different components of the treaty,
53:52 and,
53:53 and I think this,
53:54 this is just input for the Secretariat as well as
53:58 how to make it happen at the country level.
54:00 Let me stop there.
54:03 Thank you very much,
54:05 Ibu Mari.
54:06 I think your,
54:07 your practical experience
54:09 is of tremendous,
54:11 tremendous help for,
54:14 for the kind of work that we do.
54:16 We look at the analysis,
54:18 but there is nothing
54:19 better than actually having gone through it.
54:22 I retain several messages from what you mentioned.
54:26 First,
54:26 that the FTA
54:28 is not just about trade.
54:29 It's about investment.
54:31 Uh,
54:32 it is going to have its,
54:33 it's,
54:34 um,
54:35 uh,
54:35 main impact on investment and from there on growth.
54:39 The second is that,
54:41 um.
54:42 In in in the region in ASEAN as well as in Africa,
54:46 we have countries with different levels of development
54:50 and therefore
54:51 the implementation will have to be paced to their level of development
54:55 and the less developed countries may need
54:59 capacity building in that process.
55:02 You also,
55:03 you also mentioned the need to deal with the
55:06 resistance that will come from the private sector.
55:09 It will
55:10 require a change and adjustment as well as new opportunities,
55:14 but there is always fear,
55:17 and we The government will need to address that and meet with the private sector,
55:21 and we have a 2nd session of this
55:24 seminar with the private sector.
55:26 Also,
55:27 the need to
55:29 be very careful about the impact on distribution and impact on the poor.
55:34 And finally,
55:35 because of the complexity of a free trade agreement
55:38 as it touches many sectors and many ministries,
55:42 interagency coordination
55:45 is also important.
55:47 So these are great lessons,
55:49 Ibu Mari,
55:50 and we will dig more into,
55:52 into those.
55:54 Uh,
55:54 let me now turn to,
55:56 um,
55:57 the representatives of the Tunisian ministry.
56:01 Um.
56:03 Madame
56:04 Saida Hashisha and um um
56:07 Monsieur Chaoukijabali,
56:09 uh,
56:09 you may speak in French if you prefer,
56:11 and we will have uh
56:13 um
56:14 simultaneous translation Vuve pardon of Francais vuve pose vare of France
56:19 jevela pose angle e je la repose of Francais,
56:25 uh,
56:25 a Fiona intradiction simultane don't.
56:28 Um,
56:30 So
56:31 what do you see as the biggest challenges facing the ACFTA today?
56:37 The agreement is moving from phase one to phase two of the discussions,
56:41 which will bring its own challenges.
56:44 And on top of that,
56:45 the world is facing another
56:48 food crisis,
56:49 with food prices in Tunisia and elsewhere in the region
56:53 soaring as a result of the war in Ukraine.
56:56 Could that impact the phase two of the negotiations,
57:00 and could the ACFTA be part of the solution
57:03 to the challenges of food security?
57:06 So there is one part of the question about the general
57:09 challenges facing the implementation of the ATFTA as you see it today,
57:14 and the second part
57:15 that focuses perhaps a bit more on the food issue.
57:20 Jespercua rima.
57:22 So over to you.
57:24 Thank you,
57:24 thank you very much.
57:25 Uh,
57:26 I will try to,
57:27 I will try to speak in English,
57:28 but uh you,
57:29 you will uh uh uh tolerate my,
57:32 my,
57:32 some difficulties maybe uh uh I may face when talking in English.
57:36 Uh,
57:36 but first of all,
57:37 uh,
57:38 let me,
57:38 uh,
57:39 uh,
57:39 apologize on behalf of He,
57:41 Her Excellency,
57:42 uh Ms.
57:43 Fadila,
57:43 uh,
57:44 Hamza,
57:45 um,
57:45 the,
57:45 the Minister of Trade,
57:47 which,
57:47 uh,
57:48 uh,
57:50 who
57:52 are not able to join you,
57:54 uh,
57:55 due to an urgent uh commitment with the government.
57:59 Uh,
58:00 so,
58:00 uh,
58:01 uh,
58:02 Sorry,
58:03 so,
58:03 uh,
58:03 I'm,
58:04 uh,
58:04 Shajabali.
58:05 I'm a director of the cooperation with Africa,
58:07 uh,
58:07 in the Ministry of Trade,
58:09 and I,
58:10 uh,
58:10 have been the,
58:11 um,
58:12 uh,
58:13 AFCFTA negotiator,
58:15 and here,
58:15 uh,
58:16 with me,
58:16 uh,
58:16 Mr.
58:18 Said Miss Saed Aisha,
58:19 sorry,
58:19 the Director General of the International Cooperation in the Ministry of Trade.
58:23 So,
58:24 uh,
58:24 uh,
58:25 uh,
58:25 regarding your question,
58:27 Maybe I may classify the main challenges,
58:30 challenges
58:31 facing the AFCFTA into four main categories.
58:35 First of all,
58:36 I,
58:36 uh,
58:37 I would say,
58:38 uh,
58:38 uh,
58:39 there are always some technical challenges with regard to finalizing the
58:44 negotiations,
58:46 uh,
58:47 maybe for the first phase,
58:50 uh,
58:50 as we have,
58:52 uh,
58:52 always,
58:53 um,
58:54 Uh,
58:56 we,
58:56 we,
58:56 we have to finish negotiating the first phase,
58:59 uh,
58:59 with regard to goods,
59:01 services,
59:01 and also rules of origin.
59:03 And as His Excellency,
59:05 the Secretary General said,
59:07 we need to finalize some countries need to uh to,
59:11 to uh
59:12 to uh submit their offers.
59:15 In services,
59:15 goods,
59:16 and
59:17 we need to finalize the rest of the rules of origins.
59:21 The second challenge,
59:22 I think,
59:24 is linked to legal and institutional
59:28 affairs,
59:30 particularly in terms of capacities
59:32 of state parties to implement.
59:36 The agreement at the national level.
59:38 And here we are speaking about
59:40 the institutional uh uh
59:43 uh framework or institutional or internal
59:46 organizations.
59:47 We need to have uh national uh functional national committees,
59:51 and uh also
59:52 there would be a challenge regarding the transposition of the commitment.
59:57 Uh,
59:58 into the,
59:58 uh,
59:58 uh,
59:59 national legislations.
1:00:01 Here also is,
1:00:02 uh,
1:00:03 uh,
1:00:03 it may be a challenge,
1:00:05 uh,
1:00:06 regarding the implementation of the AFCFTA.
1:00:08 The third challenge,
1:00:10 uh,
1:00:10 I think also,
1:00:11 and,
1:00:11 uh,
1:00:12 uh,
1:00:12 it's something important
1:00:13 that have been mentioned,
1:00:15 uh,
1:00:16 is,
1:00:16 uh,
1:00:16 about infrastructure,
1:00:18 uh.
1:00:19 Mainly we talked about air
1:00:22 and maritime transport,
1:00:24 and also uh maybe uh digital infrastructure
1:00:28 to facilitate trade.
1:00:29 The fourth and last um challenge,
1:00:34 uh,
1:00:34 in my opinion is
1:00:36 an economy.
1:00:37 Challenge
1:00:38 and it's related to the mitigated economic impact
1:00:44 if
1:00:45 no measures
1:00:47 to be undertaken
1:00:49 with regard to trade facilitation,
1:00:52 and particularly with regard to non-tariff barriers,
1:00:55 as you know,
1:00:56 we may have
1:00:57 um
1:00:58 Uh,
1:00:59 an ambitious,
1:01:00 uh,
1:01:00 reduction of,
1:01:01 uh,
1:01:02 tariffs.
1:01:03 But
1:01:03 when it comes to,
1:01:05 uh,
1:01:06 trade barriers,
1:01:06 non-tariff barriers,
1:01:08 uh,
1:01:08 maybe the challenge is there.
1:01:10 Uh,
1:01:11 so,
1:01:11 uh,
1:01:12 another economic challenge may be linked to the imbalanced effect,
1:01:16 uh,
1:01:16 uh,
1:01:17 among member states or state parties,
1:01:19 uh,
1:01:20 especially,
1:01:20 um,
1:01:21 with regard
1:01:22 to the,
1:01:23 um,
1:01:23 uh,
1:01:24 to those uh relying heavily on customs revenues.
1:01:28 Uh,
1:01:28 maybe,
1:01:29 uh,
1:01:29 many states in Africa
1:01:32 are heavily relying on,
1:01:33 uh,
1:01:34 customs,
1:01:34 uh,
1:01:35 revenues,
1:01:36 uh,
1:01:36 from imports.
1:01:38 Finally,
1:01:39 maybe if I can say
1:01:41 the level of ambition uh uh agreed uh in terms of liberalization of trade in goods,
1:01:48 maybe on itself,
1:01:50 uh,
1:01:50 uh,
1:01:51 in my opinion,
1:01:51 may be a challenge,
1:01:53 because when we uh
1:01:55 We,
1:01:56 uh,
1:01:56 we see that,
1:01:57 uh,
1:01:57 uh,
1:01:58 trade liberalizations will be fully,
1:02:00 full,
1:02:01 uh,
1:02:02 after 13 years overall.
1:02:04 And we have 3%
1:02:06 of the goods
1:02:07 that will be uh uh excluded from globalization.
1:02:11 So
1:02:12 if you know that,
1:02:13 that
1:02:14 3% of
1:02:16 of goods
1:02:17 may constitute over 90% of the trade of one country.
1:02:21 So uh here we can,
1:02:23 we can say that
1:02:24 even the level of ambition
1:02:26 may be in some sort a challenge.
1:02:30 Hopefully,
1:02:31 finally to finish with that,
1:02:33 maybe that the Secretariat also has
1:02:36 Uh,
1:02:37 with its partners,
1:02:39 uh,
1:02:40 is leading so many activities.
1:02:45 Uh,
1:02:45 the SG already mentioned,
1:02:47 the the um the PPPs,
1:02:49 the facility adjustment,
1:02:50 the African Trade Observatory,
1:02:53 the mechanism for reporting,
1:02:54 monitoring and eliminating non-tariff barriers.
1:02:58 These
1:02:59 are some,
1:03:00 uh some uh um tools.
1:03:02 That may support
1:03:04 or mitigate these challenges.
1:03:07 Uh,
1:03:07 uh,
1:03:08 so,
1:03:09 I think that uh uh uh the AFCFTA is a good opportunity for Africa and for the world.
1:03:15 And,
1:03:15 uh,
1:03:16 these challenges may be uh addressed.
1:03:20 When
1:03:20 all of us at the continental,
1:03:22 national and regional level,
1:03:24 we support each other
1:03:26 with our international partners to achieve these results.
1:03:31 Thank you so much.
1:03:34 Thank you very much.
1:03:35 I don't know,
1:03:36 Madam Hashisha,
1:03:37 if you would like to uh add anything or we will uh just proceed.
1:03:42 Uh,
1:03:43 uh,
1:03:44 good afternoon.
1:03:45 No,
1:03:45 thank you.
1:03:46 You can,
1:03:47 uh,
1:03:48 proceed.
1:03:49 Mercy.
1:03:50 Thank you very much.
1:03:51 So this,
1:03:53 this brings to an end the first panel,
1:03:56 and we will now move to our next panel to discuss the importance of
1:04:01 foreign direct investment or FDI in Africa
1:04:05 and It can help African firms link to regional and global value chains.
1:04:11 The ACFTA can be leveraged to improve the productivity
1:04:14 of domestic firms by linking them to multinationals,
1:04:17 via investment partnerships,
1:04:20 trade,
1:04:21 and countries in Africa with larger markets.
1:04:24 And fewer trade barriers already attract significantly more
1:04:29 FDI from inside and outside the continent,
1:04:32 which offers encouraging signs about the potential
1:04:35 of the ACFTA to boost FDI inflows.
1:04:39 Still,
1:04:41 Africa's level of FDA and global value chain intensity
1:04:45 are low and underdeveloped compared with other parts
1:04:49 of the world because of the fragmented markets,
1:04:51 the FDI
1:04:52 barriers,
1:04:53 and the political and regulatory risks.
1:04:56 I,
1:04:56 I believe that the ACFTA can play
1:05:00 a very crucial role in
1:05:04 reducing the trade barriers for goods and services
1:05:08 and thus boosting Africa's regional
1:05:12 integration and global value chain
1:05:14 participation.
1:05:16 To discuss some of these topics,
1:05:18 we have with us today Mr.
1:05:20 Dave Coffey,
1:05:22 the CEO of the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers.
1:05:27 Mr.
1:05:27 Coffee has extensive experience in the automotive sector.
1:05:31 He has served as president
1:05:33 of the National Association of Automotive Components and Allied Manufacturers.
1:05:39 Um,
1:05:40 and then we have
1:05:41 uh also with us Dr.
1:05:43 Edem
1:05:44 Azogenu,
1:05:45 who's the co-chair of AfroChampions,
1:05:48 a regional,
1:05:50 uh,
1:05:50 public-private partnership promoting impactful regional
1:05:54 investments by African multinationals.
1:05:57 And finally,
1:05:59 last but not least,
1:06:00 we have our IFC Director of Sector Economics,
1:06:04 Mr.
1:06:04 Issa Fay.
1:06:06 ISA directs the development and implementation
1:06:09 of IFC's ex ante impact assessment system
1:06:13 and is responsible for the monitoring,
1:06:15 evaluation,
1:06:16 and reporting
1:06:17 of IFC's investment and
1:06:20 advisory services.
1:06:23 Previously,
1:06:24 ISA was also with the African Development Bank.
1:06:28 Let me start first with Adam.
1:06:31 As a representative of the private sector in Africa.
1:06:35 What do you think can be done to encourage deeper buy-in of the by the private sector,
1:06:42 and how can the World Bank Group
1:06:44 support stakeholders in reaching concrete results?
1:06:52 Um,
1:06:53 Mona,
1:06:54 I think,
1:06:54 uh,
1:06:55 so I would step in for Doctor Ederewenu.
1:06:58 Um,
1:06:58 uh,
1:06:59 unfortunately,
1:06:59 he's unable to join.
1:07:01 Um,
1:07:02 so my name is Richard Edujavi,
1:07:03 the senior advisor at,
1:07:05 um,
1:07:05 for Champions.
1:07:06 So,
1:07:07 uh,
1:07:07 unfortunately,
1:07:07 for some reason in my camera is also not,
1:07:09 uh,
1:07:10 picking up.
1:07:11 So I think that,
1:07:12 uh,
1:07:12 if you can just hear me,
1:07:13 let me know so that,
1:07:14 uh,
1:07:14 I go ahead.
1:07:15 We can hear you.
1:07:16 We can hear you,
1:07:17 Richard.
1:07:17 So please go ahead.
1:07:18 Wonderful.
1:07:19 Thank you.
1:07:19 So thanks,
1:07:20 uh,
1:07:20 you for organizing the,
1:07:22 this panel,
1:07:23 and then,
1:07:23 and then also showing to us all the results of,
1:07:27 of the report which was done.
1:07:28 Um,
1:07:29 in many ways,
1:07:29 I think we are able to connect to it.
1:07:31 Um,
1:07:32 I think that,
1:07:33 uh,
1:07:33 when it comes to how,
1:07:34 uh,
1:07:35 the private sector can be involved in the AFCFTA,
1:07:37 uh,
1:07:38 it's been said or uh
1:07:40 Uh,
1:07:40 Ms.
1:07:41 P used to talked about the fact that,
1:07:43 uh,
1:07:43 or the report also talked about the fact that there should be that,
1:07:46 um,
1:07:46 ownership,
1:07:47 uh,
1:07:47 from the private sector.
1:07:49 You see,
1:07:49 I mean,
1:07:49 when laws are made,
1:07:50 when rules are made for the private sector,
1:07:53 without the private sector sitting at the table to,
1:07:56 to show or to talk about their own problems and challenges which will help shape
1:08:00 the,
1:08:00 the,
1:08:01 the rules or the protocols,
1:08:03 then it becomes difficult in the end to be able to
1:08:06 um
1:08:07 Uh,
1:08:08 make the private sector active.
1:08:10 I think that,
1:08:11 uh,
1:08:11 when the private sector is at the table discussing,
1:08:14 certainly,
1:08:15 it has a,
1:08:16 uh,
1:08:16 a lot of power
1:08:17 to be able to influence
1:08:19 many other or demonstration effect
1:08:21 to influence the private sector,
1:08:23 which is not at the table to be able to join the AFCFT clearly.
1:08:27 Yeah.
1:08:27 So,
1:08:27 and that is,
1:08:28 that is one point which I think,
1:08:29 uh,
1:08:30 would,
1:08:30 that buy-in
1:08:32 will come from having first of first and foremost that ownership
1:08:35 uh from the private sector.
1:08:37 But then again,
1:08:37 that is not all.
1:08:38 I mean,
1:08:39 the,
1:08:39 the,
1:08:40 the private sector,
1:08:41 uh,
1:08:41 should be,
1:08:42 uh,
1:08:43 much more aware of the AFCFTA itself.
1:08:46 And for some reason,
1:08:47 I think that the,
1:08:48 there hasn't been an aggressive marketing,
1:08:51 uh,
1:08:51 uh,
1:08:52 from the private sector itself trying to eliminate.
1:08:59 It may bring.
1:09:00 Uh,
1:09:00 for larger,
1:09:01 uh,
1:09:01 when we talk about the private sector,
1:09:03 if I should disintegrate,
1:09:04 I mean,
1:09:04 there's a large corporations,
1:09:07 uh,
1:09:07 and then the others which is normally lumped into one that is the medium,
1:09:10 uh,
1:09:10 the,
1:09:11 the,
1:09:11 the micro,
1:09:12 small,
1:09:12 medium enterprises.
1:09:13 So let's have this binary for discussion now.
1:09:17 For large corporations,
1:09:18 yeah,
1:09:18 uh,
1:09:19 there's a lot of sensitization going on which they are aware because
1:09:22 they have research departments that normally are able to look at,
1:09:25 uh,
1:09:26 what is happening because they need to extend their market,
1:09:29 look for markets every now and then.
1:09:31 But for small and medium-sized enterprises,
1:09:33 this is an issue.
1:09:34 Um,
1:09:34 I,
1:09:35 I can,
1:09:36 uh,
1:09:36 in confidence,
1:09:37 uh,
1:09:37 or
1:09:39 tell,
1:09:39 tell you particularly that,
1:09:41 uh,
1:09:41 if I talk to my own friends who are business people,
1:09:44 small business people,
1:09:45 uh,
1:09:46 they tend to ask,
1:09:46 what is,
1:09:47 what is,
1:09:47 what is this AFCFT really about?
1:09:50 Uh,
1:09:51 so some of us,
1:09:51 uh,
1:09:52 whilst we engage,
1:09:53 we try to
1:09:54 make the
1:09:55 Uh,
1:09:56 the AFCFTA,
1:09:57 uh,
1:09:57 more,
1:09:58 bring it to the doorsteps of the small and medium size.
1:10:01 I mean,
1:10:01 the,
1:10:02 the simple charcoal or the simple banana seller has no idea.
1:10:06 Uh,
1:10:07 they think that it's just too high in the air for them.
1:10:10 Uh,
1:10:10 if you talk about it,
1:10:11 unless it has been simplified,
1:10:12 it's very difficult.
1:10:14 So that part is there.
1:10:15 So that aggressive marketing
1:10:17 is really needed
1:10:18 to get the buy-in of the private sector on this,
1:10:20 on this as well.
1:10:21 Yeah.
1:10:22 Um,
1:10:22 but then if I should see how the World Bank will come in,
1:10:25 uh,
1:10:27 may
1:10:27 come in from the issue or from the part of the challenges which the,
1:10:31 uh,
1:10:31 the private sector faces.
1:10:33 And here,
1:10:33 I'm talking about mostly about the small and medium-sized enterprises.
1:10:37 In many ways,
1:10:38 trade finance is very difficult for,
1:10:40 uh,
1:10:40 to assess
1:10:41 by the,
1:10:42 um,
1:10:43 SMEs.
1:10:44 Simply because they do not have the collateral
1:10:46 and the banks are actually looking for collaterals.
1:10:48 Uh,
1:10:49 in many cases,
1:10:49 they have the cash flow,
1:10:50 which in my understanding could have been enough,
1:10:53 uh,
1:10:54 to be able to,
1:10:54 uh,
1:10:55 hold
1:10:56 to assess finance in order that they can trade,
1:10:59 but that is not what banks are expecting.
1:11:01 And so I think that here,
1:11:02 maybe the,
1:11:03 the World Bank can clearly come in
1:11:05 in a way that,
1:11:07 uh,
1:11:08 funds may be
1:11:09 readily available,
1:11:11 not.
1:11:11 The banks,
1:11:12 but directly to the SMMEs
1:11:14 because I think that is maybe where uh uh
1:11:17 uh some of the issues are.
1:11:18 Because when it gets to
1:11:20 When,
1:11:20 when funds go through the banks,
1:11:21 they may apply their own
1:11:23 rules again,
1:11:23 and then it will be at the detriment of the
1:11:25 SMEs.
1:11:26 But when funds are able to get to SMEs with,
1:11:29 with measures to,
1:11:30 uh,
1:11:31 I'm,
1:11:32 I'm just rounding up,
1:11:33 yeah,
1:11:33 with measures to,
1:11:34 uh,
1:11:35 to,
1:11:35 to guarantee,
1:11:36 uh,
1:11:36 I'm sure,
1:11:37 uh,
1:11:37 in this way there,
1:11:38 there will be,
1:11:39 uh,
1:11:39 possibility for SMEs to excel under the AFCFTA.
1:11:43 Thank you,
1:11:43 Mona.
1:11:43 Thank you very much,
1:11:44 Richard.
1:11:45 Uh,
1:11:45 your connection just got a little bit,
1:11:47 uh.
1:11:48 Uh,
1:11:48 messy at the end,
1:11:49 but we hear,
1:11:50 we heard,
1:11:51 uh,
1:11:52 pretty much everything.
1:11:52 Thank you.
1:11:54 Uh,
1:11:54 Dave,
1:11:54 your sector,
1:11:55 the automotive industry,
1:11:57 has been one of the most active in trying to
1:11:59 leverage the expanded market that the ACFTA will bring.
1:12:03 Can you give us
1:12:04 an update on what the AAAM is doing
1:12:07 to expand the automotive industry in the continent?
1:12:12 Thank you,
1:12:12 thank you for the opportunity to participate and good day.
1:12:15 Uh,
1:12:16 we are a private sector association where our members are OEMs,
1:12:19 global component makers and service providers that add value to the sector.
1:12:24 We,
1:12:24 we are actively working with African governments,
1:12:27 uh,
1:12:28 to
1:12:29 advise on or to develop,
1:12:31 uh,
1:12:32 and to implement automotive policies and ecosystems that attract
1:12:36 investment from the OEMs and the component makers.
1:12:39 Our,
1:12:39 our industry requires scale because it's globally
1:12:42 competitive and the AFCFTA brings that to,
1:12:45 to the table.
1:12:47 Uh,
1:12:47 so,
1:12:47 so it's at the heart of all our policy development,
1:12:50 which I'll just touch on.
1:12:51 And,
1:12:52 and not every country can assemble a vehicle.
1:12:54 And it's good to see that dynamic changing,
1:12:57 uh,
1:12:57 where people,
1:12:58 where countries are actually saying,
1:12:59 so let's define our niche in the value chain,
1:13:02 which is critical.
1:13:04 Uh,
1:13:04 so we see hub assemblers developing in the four quadrants of Africa,
1:13:08 supported by neighboring countries developing their
1:13:11 value chains and supplying to,
1:13:12 to the hubs.
1:13:14 Uh,
1:13:14 so our first key focus is on policy development.
1:13:17 Our policy team,
1:13:18 uh,
1:13:19 worked with the Ghanaian government and developed the Ghana auto policy which was
1:13:23 approved in,
1:13:24 in March 2020.
1:13:26 There are 3 assemblers,
1:13:28 uh,
1:13:28 doing light assembly at the moment,
1:13:30 semi-knockdown,
1:13:31 there will be another 4 by the end of the year.
1:13:33 So it's really moving positively.
1:13:35 We met the government of Egypt in September last year,
1:13:38 the prime minister,
1:13:39 and in two weeks ago,
1:13:42 they actually approved an auto policy which changed
1:13:44 the architecture of its administrative structure significantly.
1:13:49 So they moved very quickly.
1:13:50 The Ivory Coast advised me.
1:13:53 This week that our policy team
1:13:55 uh
1:13:56 will be commissioned to do,
1:13:57 to develop,
1:13:58 to research and develop their assembly and component policy.
1:14:02 So there's quite a lot of activity and momentum picking up now,
1:14:05 uh on the on the continent.
1:14:07 We've also worked closely with Kenya in supporting their,
1:14:11 their policy rollout and we've provided Ethiopia with a draft policy.
1:14:15 It's very clear that when a policy,
1:14:18 a progressive policy is,
1:14:19 is,
1:14:19 is approved into law,
1:14:21 uh,
1:14:21 the investment follows.
1:14:23 You just look at South Africa,
1:14:24 Morocco,
1:14:25 and,
1:14:26 uh,
1:14:26 and,
1:14:26 and,
1:14:27 and soon to be Egypt and Ghana.
1:14:29 Ghana,
1:14:30 the investment is,
1:14:30 is,
1:14:31 is,
1:14:31 is following based on actual policy uh approval.
1:14:35 So the policies we promote are those that are
1:14:39 are compatible
1:14:40 and facilitate production and trade.
1:14:43 It's important that one does not focus on import substitution.
1:14:47 One needs to trade.
1:14:48 You've got to open up export and import and that's critical.
1:14:52 The vehicle manufacturing,
1:14:54 the vehicle manufacturing CEOs
1:14:57 uh on our membership,
1:14:59 uh,
1:14:59 they,
1:15:00 they have a clear vision.
1:15:01 A model will be produced in one country on
1:15:03 the continent and then traded across the continent.
1:15:06 Trade out and trade back,
1:15:08 uh,
1:15:08 back in.
1:15:10 Our second focus
1:15:11 is on value chain development.
1:15:14 Uh,
1:15:14 we have visited,
1:15:15 uh,
1:15:16 Ghana,
1:15:17 Kenya,
1:15:17 Egypt.
1:15:18 We understand the manufacturing capability in these countries.
1:15:21 We'll visit Tunisia and Morocco in August and,
1:15:24 and,
1:15:24 and July and August.
1:15:25 We understand South Africa well.
1:15:27 What's important is we want to see component manufacturers
1:15:31 that manufacture for the OEMs today extend into Africa.
1:15:35 Go and partner with organizations in,
1:15:37 in African countries,
1:15:39 uh,
1:15:39 and bring in the technology,
1:15:40 bring them the capability.
1:15:42 And they might,
1:15:43 they might not be auto component manufacturers today in East Africa.
1:15:46 African countries,
1:15:47 they might be allied industries in oil or gas or mining.
1:15:50 That's OK.
1:15:51 Partner them
1:15:52 and,
1:15:52 and,
1:15:53 and,
1:15:53 and grow that capability.
1:15:54 Uh,
1:15:55 we've taken 5 component study tours into Ghana.
1:15:59 Focus Ghana because the policy is
1:16:01 as was recently approved uh in in March 2020.
1:16:06 And,
1:16:06 and the,
1:16:07 the countries we took component makers from was South Africa,
1:16:10 Egypt,
1:16:10 and Germany.
1:16:11 We want to see coming from these other countries I mentioned like Tunisia,
1:16:14 like Morocco.
1:16:15 Take them into Africa.
1:16:17 Finding partners.
1:16:18 Let's grow.
1:16:19 We're also working with
1:16:22 with other African countries that want to uh explore value
1:16:24 chain opportunities that want to get into the value chain.
1:16:27 Some of them are in,
1:16:28 some of them are not in.
1:16:29 For example,
1:16:30 we've been to Rwanda,
1:16:31 Lesotho,
1:16:32 Gabon,
1:16:33 Namibia,
1:16:33 Botswana.
1:16:34 Countries are coming forward and saying we want to participate.
1:16:38 So we'll go and visit and see how they can actually uh participate in the value chain.
1:16:44 It's very important and I'll,
1:16:45 I'll end off shortly.
1:16:46 It's important to share
1:16:49 that in partnership and under the guidance
1:16:51 of the African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat
1:16:54 and in partnership with Rexim Bank and the AU and ourselves,
1:16:58 we,
1:16:58 we,
1:16:58 we are developing a continental automotive strategy.
1:17:02 It will be shared
1:17:03 with the uh senior trade officials and council
1:17:06 of ministers in July for member state input.
1:17:08 This collaboration is very strong.
1:17:11 And uh and important for the development of the industry.
1:17:14 And it's wonderful to see more countries approaching us,
1:17:17 what we call the coalition of the willing.
1:17:19 The private sector is interested in Africa is growing and
1:17:22 we see it in our membership and across Africa.
1:17:25 And uh
1:17:26 as,
1:17:26 as a previous presenter said,
1:17:28 I think a number of presenters said,
1:17:30 the time for Africa is now.
1:17:31 Thank you.
1:17:35 Thank you very much,
1:17:36 Dave.
1:17:37 It's always nice to hear from the private sector,
1:17:40 the,
1:17:40 you know,
1:17:41 you're the doors on the ground and,
1:17:42 and you are the ones who
1:17:45 will drive change.
1:17:46 Um,
1:17:47 so,
1:17:47 Issa,
1:17:48 uh,
1:17:49 you have had many years of experience working directly on development in Africa.
1:17:54 In your view,
1:17:54 what do you see as the development impact of the ACFTA
1:17:58 through private sector investment?
1:18:00 Thank you,
1:18:01 Issa.
1:18:05 You are muted,
1:18:06 Issa.
1:18:11 Can you hear me now?
1:18:12 Yes.
1:18:14 Thank you,
1:18:14 Mona,
1:18:14 for having me and thank you,
1:18:16 colleagues.
1:18:16 I,
1:18:16 I enjoyed your discussion so far.
1:18:19 And now maybe bringing just the perspective of impact,
1:18:22 impact assessment,
1:18:23 and then how
1:18:24 the African continent free trade uh area could,
1:18:28 could generate impact.
1:18:29 I think that
1:18:30 there is a tremendous potential to,
1:18:32 to generate substantive impact.
1:18:34 And then
1:18:34 the way you would look at that an ex ante,
1:18:37 like,
1:18:38 uh,
1:18:38 as we speak,
1:18:39 we could say,
1:18:40 That the
1:18:40 theory of change that I can see here coming out
1:18:43 is that by establishing the African continental Free Trade Area
1:18:47 and supported by the right type of institutions and policies and infrastructure,
1:18:52 uh,
1:18:52 the continent will be able to attract more FDI and then trade more and better.
1:18:57 And this would generate
1:18:59 jobs,
1:18:59 increase incomes,
1:19:00 uh,
1:19:00 diversify the exports,
1:19:02 and then,
1:19:02 uh,
1:19:03 maybe also help,
1:19:04 uh,
1:19:04 reducing the carbon footprint and then generate markets.
1:19:08 So,
1:19:08 I think that there are two
1:19:09 types of,
1:19:10 I mean,
1:19:10 I would assess this kind of
1:19:12 impact ex ante by looking at,
1:19:14 uh,
1:19:14 two dimensions,
1:19:15 the stakeholder kind of effect,
1:19:17 which is,
1:19:18 which,
1:19:19 uh,
1:19:19 constitutes of,
1:19:20 uh,
1:19:21 uh,
1:19:21 effects that are direct or indirect and accruing to the stakeholders.
1:19:26 And then also the systemic,
1:19:28 uh,
1:19:28 type of impact that would come from this type of work.
1:19:31 If you look at the stakeholder mapping and,
1:19:33 uh,
1:19:33 effect,
1:19:34 you would definitely look at,
1:19:35 uh,
1:19:36 effect going,
1:19:36 uh,
1:19:37 to consumers and households,
1:19:39 some going to employees or firms,
1:19:41 and then also,
1:19:42 uh,
1:19:42 some kind of economy-wide type of vehicle like value add,
1:19:45 uh,
1:19:46 uh,
1:19:46 GDP kind of,
1:19:47 uh,
1:19:48 indicators and looking also at,
1:19:50 at climate change and,
1:19:51 and environmental effect.
1:19:52 But in terms of consumers and households,
1:19:54 they are key,
1:19:56 key beneficiaries of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement,
1:20:00 and I think that they would benefit from affordable access to goods and services
1:20:04 because of the connectivity and more integration.
1:20:07 There will be increased access to the services.
1:20:10 Another indicator that we look at,
1:20:11 for example,
1:20:12 the assessment is
1:20:13 better jobs and
1:20:15 wages for employees because
1:20:17 by attracting more FDIs to some of the sectors that are more,
1:20:22 I mean,
1:20:22 Uh,
1:20:23 that requires more skillful labor,
1:20:25 there will be more quality of jobs.
1:20:26 So,
1:20:27 uh,
1:20:27 job,
1:20:27 uh,
1:20:28 quality is going to be
1:20:29 one indicator that will be,
1:20:31 uh,
1:20:31 I mean,
1:20:32 looked at and then including the,
1:20:34 the wages,
1:20:34 uh,
1:20:35 the increase in wages.
1:20:36 And there is some,
1:20:37 um,
1:20:37 some studies that show that the welfare gain of,
1:20:40 can be up to 2.1% for the continent,
1:20:43 uh,
1:20:43 and then,
1:20:44 Uh,
1:20:44 some other,
1:20:45 this was,
1:20:46 uh,
1:20:46 a study from the IMFA if I'm not mistaken.
1:20:48 And there are other studies showing that,
1:20:50 uh,
1:20:51 there are going to be some gains up to 5%,
1:20:53 uh,
1:20:54 in,
1:20:54 uh,
1:20:54 when the,
1:20:55 uh,
1:20:55 with the reduction of trade barriers.
1:20:58 So,
1:20:59 they,
1:20:59 we can also look at some gender dimension into that,
1:21:01 that,
1:21:02 uh,
1:21:02 the wafer gain,
1:21:03 which,
1:21:04 uh,
1:21:04 uh,
1:21:05 point to women who are gaining 10.5%,
1:21:09 uh,
1:21:09 compared to men that will be earning just 9.9%. So,
1:21:12 there is going to be
1:21:13 this type of effect.
1:21:14 That will come,
1:21:15 which is very impactful.
1:21:16 And then economy-wide,
1:21:17 as I say,
1:21:18 you're going to see some GDP increase and GDP growth,
1:21:21 uh,
1:21:22 from 0.66 to 0.997,
1:21:26 for example,
1:21:27 and then accompanied by,
1:21:28 by employment and job creation.
1:21:30 And then we expect also the manufacturing some increase in manufacturing of goods
1:21:36 which will increase by 62% and then intra-African trade
1:21:40 which has been very low now.
1:21:42 What we would expect with this free trade area that can
1:21:46 Increased by 110%.
1:21:48 So a lot of impact coming.
1:21:50 And then in terms of climate,
1:21:52 and this is something that we need to think,
1:21:54 uh,
1:21:54 um,
1:21:56 going forward and that this kind of free trade area
1:21:59 can provide a significant scope for Africa to build resilience,
1:22:02 climate resilient,
1:22:03 and lower the carbon,
1:22:05 uh,
1:22:05 footprint on the continent
1:22:07 by,
1:22:07 uh,
1:22:08 attracting
1:22:09 investment into the renewable energy sector.
1:22:11 And we expect that.
1:22:13 Uh,
1:22:14 the renewable energy capacity can grow
1:22:16 to reach,
1:22:17 uh,
1:22:17 310 gigawatts by 2020.
1:22:21 So these are kind of the type of,
1:22:23 uh,
1:22:24 direct,
1:22:24 indirect effect that I could see.
1:22:26 And now in terms of the systemic effect,
1:22:28 I think that there are
1:22:29 4 attributes of market
1:22:31 creation that I would like to,
1:22:33 to explore when looking at the free trade area.
1:22:36 One is the integration,
1:22:37 as,
1:22:37 uh,
1:22:38 the previous colleagues has said,
1:22:39 there's going to be
1:22:41 really great in terms of,
1:22:42 uh,
1:22:43 uh,
1:22:43 market integration,
1:22:44 connectivity.
1:22:45 It will facilitate the development of national,
1:22:47 regional,
1:22:48 and continental,
1:22:49 continental value chains.
1:22:50 This is,
1:22:51 this is tremendous
1:22:52 in terms of,
1:22:53 uh,
1:22:53 generating markets that are more integrated.
1:22:56 And then some study of the bank are estimating that,
1:22:58 uh,
1:22:59 a 10% increase in the global value chain would,
1:23:03 could help boost per capita income,
1:23:06 uh,
1:23:06 by more than 10%.
1:23:07 So this is really,
1:23:08 uh,
1:23:09 huge in terms of effect.
1:23:11 And by,
1:23:12 by,
1:23:12 by 2035,
1:23:14 the volume of total exports that can be generated from
1:23:17 this connection to the global value chain can,
1:23:19 uh,
1:23:20 increase by 29%.
1:23:22 So,
1:23:22 pretty,
1:23:22 pretty substantial.
1:23:24 Another market attribute that I think would come
1:23:27 from this,
1:23:28 uh,
1:23:28 uh,
1:23:29 free trade area is competitiveness
1:23:31 because by improving the policies that promote competition,
1:23:34 innovation,
1:23:35 and by lifting the barriers to trade,
1:23:38 including,
1:23:38 uh,
1:23:39 putting in place.
1:23:40 Putting in place sound legal and regulatory framework,
1:23:43 infrastructure development,
1:23:45 and so on.
1:23:46 We believe that the,
1:23:47 the African continent,
1:23:48 uh,
1:23:49 uh,
1:23:49 continental Free Trade Area
1:23:51 can
1:23:52 help reduce transaction costs and thereby facilitating investment,
1:23:56 pouring in.
1:23:57 And then there will be some kind of pressure,
1:24:00 uh,
1:24:00 competition,
1:24:01 uh,
1:24:01 and then the incumbent will have to
1:24:04 keep their tools and then innovate to deliver
1:24:06 better products and services in an affordable manner.
1:24:09 And then the,
1:24:09 the e-commerce sector and the digitization that we're
1:24:12 seeing in Africa is a case in point.
1:24:15 Right.
1:24:15 Another,
1:24:16 another attribute that is,
1:24:17 uh,
1:24:18 coming out clearly is the sustainability one.
1:24:21 The African,
1:24:22 uh,
1:24:23 continental Free Trade Area could contribute into creating
1:24:25 a market around circular economy in Africa.
1:24:28 And then,
1:24:29 uh,
1:24:29 some studies done by the African Circular Economy
1:24:32 Alliances and the World Economic Forum are showing that
1:24:35 the continent's circular food system
1:24:37 alone can help a $1 trillion
1:24:40 market to grow by 2030.
1:24:42 So there's really,
1:24:43 really,
1:24:44 uh,
1:24:44 important gains there and including also millions
1:24:47 of inclusive green jobs to be created.
1:24:50 And last but not least,
1:24:51 the inclusive dimension that,
1:24:53 that comes with the integration
1:24:55 because with the FBI,
1:24:57 with trade,
1:24:58 I think that there's a potential to lift 3 million people out of poverty,
1:25:02 and then make sure that their household and corporate,
1:25:04 um,
1:25:05 uh,
1:25:05 firms are also,
1:25:06 uh,
1:25:07 uh,
1:25:07 um,
1:25:08 get some gains into that,
1:25:09 into the process.
1:25:10 And we estimate that.
1:25:12 By 2030,
1:25:13 the fully integrated market of 1.7 billion can generate,
1:25:17 uh,
1:25:18 6.7 trillion of,
1:25:20 of spending by consumers and businesses.
1:25:22 So,
1:25:23 um,
1:25:23 uh,
1:25:24 Mona,
1:25:24 in a nutshell,
1:25:25 a lot of impact can,
1:25:26 can accrue from,
1:25:28 uh,
1:25:28 to
1:25:29 beneficiaries and then
1:25:30 in a systemic way to develop,
1:25:32 uh,
1:25:33 substantive markets.
1:25:36 Thank you very much,
1:25:37 Issa,
1:25:38 for this,
1:25:38 uh,
1:25:39 great,
1:25:40 great feedback.
1:25:41 I think uh it's really important for the private sector
1:25:44 to understand uh the benefits
1:25:47 um
1:25:48 that,
1:25:48 that this ACFTA can bring,
1:25:50 and you have,
1:25:51 you have laid out
1:25:52 all the issues very,
1:25:53 very well.
1:25:54 Um,
1:25:55 we have,
1:25:56 uh,
1:25:56 with us,
1:25:57 uh,
1:25:57 Doctor,
1:25:58 uh,
1:25:59 Ade
1:26:00 Azogeno,
1:26:01 uh,
1:26:01 the co-chair of AfroChampions who,
1:26:03 who was able to join.
1:26:06 Uh,
1:26:06 and if that's OK,
1:26:08 uh,
1:26:08 Doctor Adam,
1:26:09 I'd like to ask you one last question.
1:26:12 Um,
1:26:14 So
1:26:15 we have been talking about the role of the private sector in
1:26:19 taking advantage of the ACFTA
1:26:23 and what will it take for that,
1:26:24 but
1:26:25 we are also concerned about small firms.
1:26:28 What are the primary concerns that small and medium enterprises
1:26:33 have raised in relation to the ACFTA and how can they be addressed?
1:26:40 I,
1:26:40 I,
1:26:40 I think that,
1:26:41 it's,
1:26:41 it's a brilliant question.
1:26:42 However,
1:26:42 the,
1:26:44 I have to,
1:26:44 I would like to address it by stating the context,
1:26:46 right?
1:26:47 That in our attempts
1:26:49 to drive integration on the continent,
1:26:52 two realities exist and we've been doing this for a while with uh
1:26:55 the the regional economic markets.
1:26:57 That the big companies that have,
1:26:59 uh,
1:27:00 who are,
1:27:00 who are the drivers of integration,
1:27:03 uh,
1:27:03 uh,
1:27:04 do not have the
1:27:06 capacity or the resources to invest in the public infrastructure.
1:27:09 Uh,
1:27:10 like roads,
1:27:10 sports,
1:27:10 and rails that will make it easy,
1:27:12 uh,
1:27:13 for,
1:27:13 for the interconnection that we need the infrastructure,
1:27:16 uh,
1:27:17 for integration to happen.
1:27:19 Then when it comes to the SMEs,
1:27:21 the challenge we face is that the SMEs are currently,
1:27:24 who are supposed to be the beneficiaries of integration.
1:27:27 Uh,
1:27:28 of,
1:27:28 of this common market
1:27:29 are focused on their domestic market.
1:27:32 So an SME in
1:27:33 Uganda does not wake up thinking about producing for Senegal market
1:27:37 or for
1:27:37 Cape Verde market.
1:27:39 So,
1:27:39 integration for us has to be a product that needs to be marketed.
1:27:43 And that marketing has to bring into focus
1:27:46 because by the sheer nature of the diversification,
1:27:49 the fragmentation of the continent,
1:27:51 it's important to bring some strategic stakeholders
1:27:54 together.
1:27:55 So,
1:27:55 what are the challenges?
1:27:56 The challenges are logistics,
1:27:57 of course.
1:27:57 The challenges are marketing,
1:27:59 the challenges are regulatory.
1:28:00 We know all of that.
1:28:01 But how do we surmount that?
1:28:03 So I,
1:28:03 I,
1:28:03 I like to look at it more from
1:28:05 what can we begin to do practically because there's a lot happening in fragments.
1:28:10 How do we bring them together
1:28:12 to scale?
1:28:13 And
1:28:14 the theory of change for us at AfroChampions
1:28:16 with what we are doing with uh,
1:28:18 what we are calling the AFCFTA hub
1:28:20 is bringing,
1:28:20 for example,
1:28:21 logistics operators onto a common platform,
1:28:24 bringing,
1:28:25 uh,
1:28:26 because a market asset enablers like your malls,
1:28:29 you have a lot of malls in Africa,
1:28:30 for example.
1:28:31 Uh,
1:28:32 who are,
1:28:32 who,
1:28:32 who,
1:28:32 who can take products of SMEs in one market and take it to multiple markets.
1:28:36 But we have to bring the regulators,
1:28:37 the food and drug authorities,
1:28:39 we have to bring the customs
1:28:40 operators as well.
1:28:42 And then we also have to market.
1:28:44 Branding is a very important thing.
1:28:46 So,
1:28:46 brand equity is also another area we're very keen on
1:28:49 by bringing digital artists and music artists together.
1:28:52 To begin to support SMEs to package products and
1:28:55 brand products in a way that speaks to Africans.
1:28:58 But not only Africans,
1:28:59 speaks to the soul of Africans,
1:29:00 but connects to the markets they want to sell it.
1:29:03 Uh,
1:29:03 and putting all of this on a digital platform that enables people to connect.
1:29:07 will be for us the quickest way
1:29:10 in being able to drive
1:29:11 integration through trade
1:29:13 whilst waiting for Port rail and other things to come on.
1:29:15 So,
1:29:15 I guess my answer to your question is that
1:29:17 there are challenges for sure.
1:29:19 But there are also solutions,
1:29:21 and what we should be looking at is looking at
1:29:23 the low hanging fruit solutions
1:29:26 that exist in pockets,
1:29:27 bring them together into an ecosystem.
1:29:29 And when people begin to see that integration
1:29:33 actually has results,
1:29:34 as profits,
1:29:35 because the private sector is only interested in profit,
1:29:37 you can see that it's growing their money.
1:29:40 They themselves will start marketing it and it will go viral.
1:29:42 So that's my response to your question.
1:29:45 Thank you.
1:29:47 Thank you very much,
1:29:48 uh,
1:29:48 Doctor Ede.
1:29:50 And with that,
1:29:50 I would like to conclude this,
1:29:53 um,
1:29:53 this seminar and thank everybody for,
1:29:56 for joining and sharing their views and,
1:29:59 uh,
1:29:59 to thank Marilla for her,
1:30:01 uh,
1:30:02 work,
1:30:02 uh,
1:30:02 and her presentation,
1:30:04 which was the starting point of the seminar.
1:30:07 I want to say that,
1:30:08 um,
1:30:10 There,
1:30:11 there will be,
1:30:11 there will be very few opportunities like the ACFTA
1:30:15 to really,
1:30:16 to really open the door
1:30:18 for investments in Africa,
1:30:20 and it can remain
1:30:25 a trade agreement
1:30:26 with not much happening,
1:30:28 and we have seen that in many parts of the world.
1:30:31 But as I hear from the private sector,
1:30:34 the eagerness to actually
1:30:36 take advantage of it and create opportunities and make this happen.
1:30:40 I'm very hopeful that the ACFTA
1:30:44 will actually lead to results,
1:30:46 and it will lead to results in terms of trade,
1:30:48 in terms of investment,
1:30:51 that,
1:30:52 and in terms of growth and employment generation
1:30:56 that will be
1:30:57 as inclusive as possible.
1:30:59 And I would like to also urge the private sector
1:31:04 to talk to the government and to talk to us
1:31:07 to let us know
1:31:08 what will it take for you to make this happen.
1:31:12 You are the ones on the ground
1:31:14 investing and facing all the challenges,
1:31:17 and
1:31:18 if we need to prioritize
1:31:20 certain
1:31:21 Uh,
1:31:22 rules and regulations and reforms or activities,
1:31:26 uh,
1:31:27 as,
1:31:27 as Mari Pangestu has said,
1:31:29 this,
1:31:29 this dialogue between the public sector and the private sector will,
1:31:33 will be critical.
1:31:35 So with that,
1:31:36 uh,
1:31:37 thank you all.
1:31:37 I learned a lot,
1:31:39 uh,
1:31:39 and I really appreciate you coming and taking the time to share
1:31:43 your views and your analysis.
1:31:45 Thank you very much.
1:31:47 Goodbye.
1:31:48 Thank you.
1:31:53 Thank you so much.
1:31:55 Thank you.
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