00:01 Hello,
00:02 everybody.
00:02 Um,
00:03 today is International Poverty Reduction Day,
00:05 and it's a good opportunity to talk a little bit about
00:08 work that we've done with the Center for International Knowledge and Development
00:12 to study China's poverty reduction experience over the last 40 years.
00:16 As many people know,
00:18 China
00:18 managed to bring close to 800 million people out of poverty.
00:22 What were the main factors?
00:23 Well,
00:24 principally economic growth.
00:26 China started the reform and opening up period
00:29 at a very low level of per capita income,
00:31 but subsequently saw four decades of extremely high rates of economic growth.
00:36 In part,
00:37 those rates were so high because China was so
00:40 poor to begin with but had quite good assets such
00:42 as good education level and good healthcare that allowed it
00:45 to catch up with the other East Asian countries,
00:48 uh,
00:48 reasonably quickly.
00:49 The second factor were the market reforms themselves because
00:53 those opened opportunities for poor people,
00:56 first in agriculture,
00:57 then in the coastal urban cities that were connected with international exports,
01:02 and then in the interior provinces as the country invested
01:05 in infrastructure to connect those provinces with global markets.
01:09 The third factor though,
01:11 is that the government role was quite important too.
01:14 Through the investments in infrastructure I already mentioned,
01:16 and then in the last decade,
01:18 after around 2010,
01:20 increasingly also by direct transfers to poor households.
01:24 The DBA system for example,
01:25 the introduction of rural pensions,
01:27 but also the investment in government services such as health and education.
01:33 So what does this mean for China going forward?
01:35 Well,
01:36 the first thing is that growth obviously will continue to be important,
01:40 but growth rates have been slowing.
01:42 So for China to achieve further reductions in poverty,
01:45 it will have to pay more attention to the growth and inequality
01:49 because this Increased during the 1st 40 years or stabilized in the last 10 years,
01:54 but going forward,
01:55 really government policies should try and bring inequality down
02:00 because as a as growth rates slow,
02:02 the reduction of inequality may play an important
02:04 role in the future reduction of poverty.
02:07 Um,
02:08 but
02:09 for other countries,
02:10 what this means
02:11 is that,
02:12 uh,
02:13 economic growth is an important aspect of poverty reduction,
02:16 that the government can,
02:18 uh,
02:18 accelerate economic growth through these market-oriented reforms,
02:22 that investment in government services and in
02:24 infrastructure can play an important role,
02:27 and
02:28 that as countries get richer,
02:31 Government support policies and direct transfers will play an important role,
02:35 and that's the final point.
02:36 As China aspires to become a high-income country,
02:39 what it means to be poor in China itself will also have to shift.
02:42 The poverty standard will likely change,
02:45 and that means who
02:46 Poor in China today may be very different.
02:49 For instance,
02:49 at a higher poverty standard of $5 a day,
02:52 one third of the poor in China live in urban areas.
02:55 They may require different support mechanisms.
02:57 So the story of poverty reduction in China is not finished.
03:01 The efforts continue,
03:03 but today is a good time to look back at what was achieved,
03:06 to learn the right lessons,
03:08 and to look forward on what is next.
03:10 Thanks a lot for listening.
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