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00:01 Uh,

00:01 good morning,

00:02 good afternoon,

00:03 uh,

00:03 good evening,

00:04 bonjour.

00:05 So before we start the event,

00:06 I would like to remind you that we have simultaneous translation

00:10 from French to English and English to French.

00:12 So if you go on the Zoom app,

00:14 you will find a symbol looking like a globe,

00:16 which if you press on it will allow you to choose.

00:19 The appropriate channel for you.

00:20 Thank you very much.

00:22 Distinguished guests,

00:23 ladies and gentlemen,

00:24 I'm delighted to welcome you today for our launch event

00:27 of the joint report listing state-owned enterprises

00:30 in emerging and developing economies,

00:32 lessons learned for 30 years

00:34 of success and failure.

00:36 My name is Jean Penn.

00:37 I'm the Global director for Finance at the World Bank,

00:40 and it is really my pleasure and my

00:41 honor to be your moderator for today's discussion.

00:44 Policies around SOE investment can be complex.

00:47 Policymakers and practitioners must balance various objectives

00:51 such as raising fiscal revenue,

00:54 improving firm performance,

00:56 democratizing share ownership,

00:58 and supporting capital market development.

01:00 Some may decide listing via the stock exchange are the best way to go,

01:04 especially where countries aim to develop

01:06 their local capital market.

01:08 Our discussion today will look at the issue on

01:10 when and how to use listing as a disinvestment strategy

01:13 from the lens of the capital market development.

01:16 We hope that this report will be a useful guide for you,

01:19 helping you learn more about the SOE listing experiences of other countries,

01:24 which potential development effects on the local

01:26 capital market to expect in the short,

01:28 medium,

01:28 and long term.

01:29 And the condition under which they can be realized and how to maximize impact.

01:34 Before we begin,

01:35 I'd like to sincerely thank our partners,

01:37 in particular,

01:37 Ava Wyman,

01:39 the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg,

01:40 and the African Securities Exchange Association,

01:43 which have supported us throughout this work.

01:46 And I would like to start by welcoming Mr.

01:48 Arsene Jacobi,

01:49 the Director of Multilateral Affairs,

01:51 Development and Compliance

01:52 in the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg.

01:55 Arsen,

01:55 on behalf of the World Bank and the Joint Capital Market,

01:58 or JCAP,

01:59 I would like to thank you personally and the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg

02:02 for your continuous support for our knowledge development activities

02:06 that have allowed us to push the

02:07 knowledge fron frontier on capital markets development.

02:11 It's really a pleasure to have us,

02:13 to have you join us today,

02:14 and I really look forward to your welcome address.

02:17 Ian,

02:17 the floor is yours.

02:20 Well,

02:20 thank you,

02:21 thank you,

02:21 Jean,

02:21 for your kind words.

02:23 Uh,

02:23 mercivo coujean,

02:25 rescier.

02:27 uh,

02:28 distinguished guests,

02:29 ladies and gentlemen,

02:30 it is really a pleasure for me to be here

02:33 today and celebrate together with you the launch of the SOE

02:37 listing report,

02:38 a report that was spearheaded by the World Bank's Joint Capital

02:43 Markets Program in close collaboration as Jean mentioned with Oliver Wyman.

02:48 The African Stock Exchange Associate and the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg.

02:55 Luxembourg has been supporting the World Bank's capital,

02:59 joint capital markets work under the JCAP

03:01 initiative almost since its start in 2018.

03:06 We are a big supporter of uh JCAP because it aligns

03:11 very well with uh our own development aspirations.

03:15 Indeed,

03:16 we believe that capital markets play a

03:18 fundamental role in economic growth and financial stability

03:22 by allocating local currency and long-term capital

03:26 to projects that help create jobs

03:29 and this not only in the developed world but also in developing economies.

03:35 Our goal,

03:36 given the role of our financial sector

03:38 is to continuously drive financial innovation.

03:42 For example,

03:42 we are the home of the Green exchange,

03:45 the world's leading platform for issuing

03:48 and listing green

03:50 social and sustainable securities.

03:54 The JCAB initiative

03:56 is working to play a similar role in emerging and developing economies,

04:02 that is

04:03 leveraging

04:04 capital markets to promote economic growth

04:07 and jobs creation while maintaining financial stability.

04:12 For example,

04:14 Jacob has worked to develop and leverage capital

04:17 market solutions for affordable housing in Kenya,

04:21 SME financing in West Africa,

04:24 and climate action in Morocco.

04:27 And in doing so,

04:28 it makes a continuous effort to share its experience

04:32 and its knowledge not only across

04:35 its focus countries but across all emerging and developing markets

04:39 with an interest in developing local capital markets.

04:44 It is precisely for those reasons that Luxembourg became

04:48 an early supporter of JCAP and its knowledge work.

04:52 Over the past years,

04:54 we already had a few reasons to celebrate.

04:57 For example,

04:59 late last year with Luxembourg's support,

05:02 JCAP delivered its inaugural Capital Markets conference in Abidjan,

05:07 attended by over 300 international,

05:10 regional,

05:11 and domestic capital

05:13 markets professionals.

05:16 Jacob also produced a policy primer with the help of Luxembourg

05:20 published late last year with the aim to inform and guide

05:24 the public and private

05:26 sector approach to local capital markets development.

05:31 And together with JCAP

05:33 we are working on a new report

05:36 on crowdfunding

05:37 and the efforts of COVID-19 that we expect to come out later this year.

05:43 If JCAP's in-country work is really at the heart of its efforts to help develop

05:50 local

05:51 capital markets,

05:52 then the knowledge work on the JCAP

05:55 that we very much support

05:56 has shaped and informed said

05:59 in-country work.

06:01 Both actually go hand in hand indeed.

06:05 Therefore,

06:06 it is with great

06:08 pleasure and pride that I welcome you here today

06:12 to the launch event of the latest knowledge product

06:15 developed under the JCUB

06:17 initiative,

06:18 the seminar report

06:19 listing state-owned enterprises in emerging and developing economies,

06:25 lessons learned from 30 years of success,

06:29 and of course,

06:29 obviously,

06:31 some failures as well.

06:33 Given the impact that COVID-19 has had on many of the world's stock exchanges,

06:40 the publication of this report seems very timely.

06:45 Many governments are

06:47 once again confronted with the decision on whether

06:50 or not to divest their state-owned enterprises,

06:54 a difficult decision,

06:55 uh,

06:56 indeed,

06:57 uh,

06:57 because of wide-ranging ramifications on economies and societies as a whole.

07:04 Listings as one matters to divest SOEs

07:08 are not an exception,

07:10 and yet they differ from other divestment matters

07:14 in many aspects,

07:15 one being

07:17 the development impact on local capital markets.

07:21 But

07:22 with what confidence can we really recommend SOE listings

07:26 as the divestment solution

07:29 to develop local capital markets in emerging and developing economies?

07:34 What are indeed the conditions of success and which factors

07:38 have to be put in place to ensure

07:41 long-term development impact?

07:44 These are only a few questions or many more.

07:48 This report aims to help policymakers and

07:50 practitioners to better understand SOE listings,

07:54 the potential effects it could have on their local capital markets,

07:58 and under which conditions they can be successful and

08:03 impactful.

08:04 The report also includes a summary of the most recent research

08:09 on the impact of SOE listings

08:12 on the broader economy.

08:15 With the hope to be a true guide in policymakers' difficult decision on when

08:21 and how to use listings as a tool to divest from SOEs.

08:27 Like all governments,

08:28 we fully appreciate the potential sensitivity surrounding this topic,

08:33 but fully support the need for well-informed

08:36 and robust debate based on academic literature,

08:41 case studies,

08:42 and experience,

08:43 both positive and negative,

08:45 and believe that this report will add constructively

08:49 to the discussion.

08:51 In closing and on behalf of the government of Luxembourg,

08:55 I would also like to acknowledge

08:57 and explicitly thank the various partners

09:00 who came together to help produce and make this report possible,

09:05 namely,

09:06 the African Securities Exchange Association

09:10 represented uh by their president,

09:12 Dr.

09:12 Ego Kosi Ain Munde.

09:16 Jespercubien

09:18 pronounce treon.

09:20 And then all the

09:24 Oliver Wyman,

09:25 whose team has worked many hours on this report led by Michael Wagner,

09:31 as well as the World Bank,

09:32 in particular,

09:33 Ms.

09:33 Anika Nealli

09:35 and Mr.

09:36 Anderson Caputo Silva,

09:38 who have been driving

09:40 uh the driving force behind this report since day one.

09:44 So my congratulations to the teams on the launch of the report and we

09:49 look forward to seeing what this report

09:51 and the wider knowledge management efforts of JCAP

09:54 will help to realize in the coming years.

09:57 Thanks a lot.

10:00 Thank you very much,

10:01 Arsen for this uh very important,

10:03 uh,

10:03 setting the scene discussion and,

10:05 and,

10:05 uh,

10:05 as mentioned,

10:06 uh also,

10:07 uh,

10:07 for the very strong support by,

10:09 uh,

10:09 Luxembourg to the whole GECAP initiative and in particular its knowledge work.

10:13 So now I would like to welcome,

10:15 um,

10:15 uh,

10:15 and equally extend a very sincere thank you to Doctor Eddo Kosi Aminunde.

10:20 Uh,

10:20 he is the CEO of the Burs Regional de Valor Mobierre

10:24 and the current head of the African Securities Exchange Association,

10:28 known as ASEA.

10:29 I will try to pronounce that one well.

10:31 Uh,

10:31 Doctor Aminume,

10:32 it is really an honor for me to celebrate with you today,

10:35 uh,

10:35 the launch of the SOE listing report.

10:38 Uh,

10:38 beyond this initiative,

10:39 you are a longtime friend of Jacob,

10:41 and there is a lot of work,

10:43 um.

10:43 At the moment with you and your team,

10:45 and,

10:45 and I hope that we can really engage in many more joint initiative

10:49 to promote the development of Ou's regional capital market,

10:52 in particular.

10:53 So Mr.

10:54 Amenume,

10:54 the floor is yours.

10:55 Mercy.

10:59 Mercy,

11:01 thank you very much.

11:04 Dear Mr.

11:05 Absent Jacobi,

11:07 Director of Multilateral Affairs,

11:09 Development and Compliance,

11:11 Minister of Finance of Luxembourg,

11:14 Dear Mr.

11:14 Jean Penn,

11:15 Director of the Finance Competitiveness and

11:18 Innovation Global Practice at World Bank,

11:22 Dear colleagues,

11:23 CEOs of African exchanges,

11:26 Distinguished

11:27 guests,

11:28 ladies and gentlemen.

11:30 I'm very honored to be with you today.

11:34 On behalf

11:35 of the African Securities Exchanges Association,

11:37 ASEA,

11:39 I would like to welcome you at this virtual ceremony.

11:43 Organized jointly by our association,

11:46 N AFC

11:48 to launch a report on listing state-owned

11:52 enterprises

11:53 in emerging and developing economies.

11:56 First of all,

11:58 I would like to warmly thank our partner

12:01 IFC

12:02 for this initiative

12:04 and its permanent support to the development of capital markets

12:08 on the continent

12:09 through,

12:10 through its various program,

12:12 especially JACAB.

12:14 On behalf of ASEAN members,

12:17 I would like also to congratulate

12:20 Oliver

12:21 Wyman

12:21 and his team

12:23 for this excellent

12:24 and informative report.

12:27 The report

12:28 aims to guide African governments to the right way

12:32 as

12:33 it sheds

12:34 light on the success and failures

12:37 of privatization programs around the world over 30 years.

12:43 A key part of their strategy

12:45 to strengthen their economic growth through capital

12:48 allocation

12:49 of public resources,

12:52 many developed countries adopt more efficient policies

12:56 in terms of management

12:58 of their investment

12:59 in companies on the long-term horizon.

13:02 Privatization.

13:04 is one of the ways to manage public investments,

13:08 allowing government to withdraw from the capital of companies

13:13 while achieving substantial

13:15 capital gain

13:16 and promoting the development of private sector champions

13:20 and local retail

13:22 investors.

13:24 These strategies

13:25 and policies

13:26 should inspire

13:28 African countries.

13:30 From ASEA perspective,

13:32 We have to fill the gap between our continent

13:36 and the other region

13:38 of the world.

13:39 We have to create the conditions

13:42 of successful IPOs

13:44 of state-owned enterprises,

13:47 and develop a large base of retail investors

13:50 in our countries.

13:53 In closing,

13:55 I would like to assure all our partners

13:58 that ASEAN

14:00 will do everything.

14:01 To make these reports

14:03 an impactful tool

14:06 for our continent.

14:08 Our unwavering commitments to play a key role.

14:13 In the long-term economy and social development of our continent

14:17 is at the heart of our strategy.

14:20 With the support of all,

14:22 there is no doubt

14:24 we'll be successful.

14:26 Thank you for your attention.

14:29 Thank you very much,

14:30 Mr.

14:30 Aminunde,

14:31 and,

14:31 and I would like to emphasize the last point that you made,

14:34 uh,

14:34 the importance of developing long-term finance and

14:36 capital market in the African continent,

14:39 which is obviously a very important priority

14:41 for the World Bank Group and JCAP in particular.

14:44 So I'm going to try to slow down how fast

14:46 I speak because apparently I'm going a bit too fast.

14:50 So I will now,

14:50 uh,

14:51 like to turn to Anika Erik,

14:52 who is uh associate Financial Officer at the World Bank Group,

14:56 and Michael Wagner,

14:57 who is senior partner at Oliver Wyman.

14:59 Uh,

14:59 Anika and Michael have worked closely together

15:02 for the past year to develop this report,

15:04 uh,

15:04 with the team,

15:05 but they've been in the lead.

15:06 So thank you very much to the two of you for this,

15:08 uh,

15:09 very hard work,

15:10 and they will now present us with the main findings of the report.

15:13 Anika,

15:14 Michael,

15:14 I look forward to your presentation.

15:21 Thank you,

15:21 John.

15:22 Um,

15:23 I will,

15:24 uh,

15:24 kick this off and then Anika will,

15:26 uh,

15:26 uh,

15:27 take over from me.

15:28 So,

15:29 we will only be able to,

15:31 um,

15:31 present the highlights of the report.

15:34 The report is fairly substantive.

15:35 It's around 80 pages.

15:37 So we don't have room for 80 pages,

15:40 uh,

15:40 uh,

15:40 uh,

15:41 worth of findings.

15:42 But,

15:43 I,

15:43 you know,

15:43 as I said,

15:44 we will go through the,

15:45 uh,

15:45 through the highlights of the,

15:46 of 30 years

15:48 of successes and failure of listing state-owned enterprises in emerging.

15:52 And developing economies.

15:54 We've selected the economies,

15:56 um,

15:57 for,

15:58 uh,

15:58 you know,

15:58 their,

15:59 uh,

15:59 listing activities,

16:00 so it does have,

16:01 um,

16:02 uh,

16:02 uh,

16:02 15,

16:03 um,

16:04 uh,

16:04 emerging and developing economies that,

16:06 that we looked at.

16:07 Could we,

16:07 I have the next slide,

16:09 please.

16:10 The question is,

16:11 why do we,

16:12 uh,

16:12 really care about SOE listings?

16:15 We believe that,

16:16 uh,

16:17 they play or can play a very important role at developing a capital market,

16:22 uh,

16:22 as we will see through the findings of the report,

16:25 but also,

16:26 um,

16:27 SOE assets across emerging and developing economies

16:32 represent about $45 trillion US dollars of

16:35 unlisted,

16:36 um,

16:37 uh,

16:37 assets today.

16:39 And secondly,

16:40 uh,

16:40 development of,

16:42 uh,

16:42 African capital markets as measured by IPO and SPO activity,

16:47 as we can see on the chart here,

16:49 has slowed down over the recent years.

16:51 So we believe it can be

16:53 a strong,

16:53 uh,

16:54 foundation

16:55 for,

16:56 um,

16:56 kickstarting,

16:57 uh,

16:57 the next potential wave of development of capital markets in Africa.

17:02 But I have the next slide.

17:05 The report,

17:06 uh,

17:06 focused,

17:07 as I said,

17:08 uh,

17:08 uh,

17:09 around,

17:09 uh,

17:10 emerging and developing economies.

17:12 Uh,

17:13 as I said,

17:14 we selected,

17:15 uh,

17:15 15 of those.

17:16 The main questions the report

17:18 is looking to address really is

17:20 what has been the impact

17:22 of SOE listings on the development of

17:25 local capital markets.

17:27 Second,

17:27 um,

17:28 what has the,

17:29 what are the preconditions

17:30 to list

17:31 SOEs successfully.

17:32 So here we are looking

17:34 at what are the best methods of listing

17:37 SOEs and what has been the results of,

17:39 of doing so.

17:41 And the third question,

17:42 uh,

17:43 was once listed,

17:45 um,

17:46 what have been the drivers to create a positive impact on

17:50 capital markets development overall?

17:52 So what have been the demonstration effects as,

17:55 as we call them,

17:56 uh,

17:56 if any?

17:57 Um,

17:58 And as mentioned before,

18:00 by,

18:01 by,

18:01 uh,

18:01 uh,

18:02 in the introduction,

18:03 the report,

18:04 um,

18:05 um.

18:06 You know,

18:06 is to provide policymakers with a holistic view.

18:09 That's why we included,

18:11 uh,

18:12 you know,

18:12 the impact,

18:13 uh,

18:13 summary of,

18:14 uh,

18:14 of the impact on key economic variables such as firm performance,

18:19 quality of public goods,

18:20 and so forth.

18:21 We are not attempting

18:22 to do an in-depth study of,

18:24 of these,

18:25 but they are provided

18:26 as important context for policymakers

18:30 to,

18:30 um,

18:31 uh,

18:31 base their,

18:32 uh,

18:32 their decisions around.

18:34 Could I have the next slide,

18:36 please?

18:38 And,

18:38 uh,

18:39 the report has two sections.

18:40 One is,

18:41 uh,

18:42 representing the main findings,

18:44 uh,

18:45 across,

18:45 uh,

18:46 the broader set of,

18:47 uh,

18:47 emerging and developing economies.

18:50 And the second report,

18:51 uh,

18:51 focuses on lessons

18:54 learned or,

18:55 um,

18:56 is,

18:56 is there a business case for Africa?

18:58 What can

18:59 African economies do

19:01 and what are the implications of the findings of the main report?

19:06 Could I have the next slide,

19:07 please?

19:08 So,

19:09 I will only,

19:10 as I said,

19:10 go through some,

19:11 uh,

19:12 some

19:12 important highlights of the findings.

19:14 Um,

19:15 next slide,

19:16 please.

19:18 So first of all,

19:19 um,

19:20 we do find evidence that SOA listings can boost market capitalization,

19:24 specifically in the early.

19:26 Um,

19:27 stages of capital market development.

19:29 When we looked at a sample of

19:32 economies with,

19:33 uh,

19:34 um,

19:35 strong and regular

19:36 listing activity,

19:37 we found that,

19:38 uh,

19:39 the capital markets grew faster

19:41 than economies that,

19:42 uh,

19:43 didn't have uh such activity or only,

19:46 uh,

19:46 listed,

19:46 uh,

19:47 as,

19:47 as smaller,

19:48 uh,

19:49 smaller deals.

19:50 Um,

19:52 The,

19:52 um,

19:53 you know,

19:53 as,

19:54 as I said,

19:54 in early,

19:56 uh,

19:56 stages of development,

19:57 SOE listings can be very important simply because of the size

20:02 of the,

20:03 uh,

20:03 of,

20:03 uh,

20:04 of SOEs and the impact on

20:06 market capitalization,

20:08 and therefore,

20:09 uh,

20:09 a market development.

20:11 And we find where we strategically used and well planned,

20:15 they can basically um kickstart but also sustain the development

20:20 of capital markets.

20:21 But in order to do so,

20:23 uh,

20:24 as we will discuss later,

20:25 a program,

20:26 a programmatic approach has been proven,

20:29 uh,

20:29 uh,

20:29 the best.

20:31 And I have the next slide.

20:34 The demonstration effects,

20:36 um,

20:37 you know,

20:37 that have been found in the empirical literature

20:40 to be important and or to be significant

20:43 in developed economies,

20:45 we didn't find broadspread evidence for those.

20:48 We did find,

20:49 uh,

20:49 in,

20:50 in cases

20:51 where,

20:52 uh,

20:52 In 4 countries,

20:53 which,

20:54 uh,

20:55 which had,

20:56 um,

20:56 uh,

20:57 you know,

20:57 a,

20:57 a strong

20:58 demonstration effects,

20:59 we found,

21:00 uh,

21:00 uh,

21:01 key commonalities,

21:02 which we list here.

21:04 So,

21:04 um,

21:05 those countries were able to develop

21:07 a large domestic institutional investor base.

21:10 They

21:11 had provided good foreign investor access.

21:15 They had a listing pipeline.

21:17 So,

21:17 um,

21:18 as I said,

21:19 a programmatic approach to,

21:20 uh,

21:21 Uh,

21:22 SOE listings

21:24 and,

21:24 um,

21:25 uh,

21:26 uh,

21:26 outside SOEs,

21:28 they also had a large economy with large private

21:31 companies that could,

21:32 uh,

21:33 a list once

21:34 SOEs have paved the way for

21:37 capital markets development.

21:38 But I have the next slide please.

21:42 So,

21:43 um,

21:45 What are the,

21:45 the,

21:46 the drawbacks?

21:47 So we found that uh the biggest risk

21:49 really is related to an inadequate market infrastructure.

21:53 We didn't find any pronounced negative effects,

21:57 uh,

21:57 of,

21:58 of listings,

21:59 but in many cases,

22:00 listings didn't fulfill the the promises

22:03 that they,

22:04 uh,

22:04 uh,

22:05 set out to provide.

22:06 And

22:07 mainly,

22:08 um,

22:08 you know,

22:09 as,

22:09 as we said,

22:10 because of inadequate.

22:11 Market infrastructure,

22:12 uh,

22:13 which,

22:13 uh,

22:14 includes,

22:15 uh,

22:15 um,

22:16 uh,

22:16 exchange infrastructure,

22:18 financial infrastructure as represented by brokerages,

22:21 uh,

22:22 or,

22:22 um,

22:23 a,

22:23 a general,

22:24 uh,

22:24 accounting,

22:25 uh,

22:26 lack of accounting standards and oversight and enforcement,

22:29 which are very important,

22:31 uh,

22:31 to guarantee

22:32 the,

22:33 um,

22:33 uh,

22:33 the value that,

22:35 uh,

22:35 that the listings,

22:36 uh,

22:36 represent.

22:38 We did find that in small markets,

22:40 uh,

22:41 uh,

22:41 GDRs and ADRs or that use GDRs and ADRs as an alternative,

22:46 uh,

22:46 we actually found that,

22:48 um,

22:48 if used prolifically,

22:50 uh,

22:50 there was an,

22:51 uh,

22:52 you know,

22:53 the,

22:53 the effect really was that the local markets

22:55 didn't develop.

22:56 It was more,

22:57 uh,

22:58 supporting.

22:58 Uh,

22:59 the,

22:59 the development of,

23:00 uh,

23:01 foreign markets rather than the local market,

23:03 uh,

23:03 themselves.

23:04 So,

23:04 therefore,

23:05 um,

23:06 we found that the,

23:07 the much better solution

23:09 was to develop local markets and the,

23:12 uh,

23:13 uh,

23:13 the supporting infrastructure

23:15 and the,

23:15 uh,

23:15 the long-term investor base that is critical to support the market.

23:19 But I have the next slide.

23:23 Then,

23:23 um,

23:25 the liquidity impact,

23:26 uh,

23:27 actually for of SOEs,

23:28 we found a,

23:29 a very positive effect on

23:31 the,

23:32 uh,

23:32 their own liquidity.

23:33 So because SOEs are large,

23:35 they represent

23:37 a large,

23:38 um,

23:38 um,

23:39 uh,

23:39 uh,

23:40 stakes or large capital.

23:41 Uh,

23:42 uh,

23:42 as,

23:42 uh,

23:43 investments.

23:44 Therefore,

23:44 we found across the markets that you see listed here,

23:47 uh,

23:48 um,

23:48 uh,

23:48 and for,

23:49 for the individual companies listed here,

23:51 good liquidity over a sustained period of time.

23:55 When we looked at,

23:56 does it increase market

23:58 liquidity overall,

24:01 Uh,

24:01 we only found this to be the case where the,

24:04 uh,

24:04 demonstration effects which we,

24:06 uh,

24:06 by which we mean,

24:08 uh,

24:08 listings of private,

24:10 uh,

24:10 companies,

24:11 so,

24:11 uh,

24:11 follow-on listings of private companies,

24:13 uh,

24:14 uh,

24:14 where that was the case,

24:16 overall market liquidity also improved.

24:18 In other cases,

24:19 the spillover effect

24:21 was,

24:21 uh,

24:21 limited,

24:22 uh,

24:23 or not evident.

24:25 Next slide,

24:25 please.

24:27 And then,

24:28 um,

24:29 finally,

24:29 we looked at,

24:30 um,

24:31 you know,

24:31 can,

24:31 uh,

24:32 uh,

24:33 what does it do to the investor base?

24:35 What investors are important.

24:38 So when we looked at,

24:39 uh,

24:39 uh,

24:40 you know,

24:41 again,

24:41 at,

24:41 at some of the largest IPOs that were very successful in the retail,

24:46 uh,

24:46 investors.

24:47 So demo democratizing share ownership,

24:49 definitely it was achieved in many cases.

24:52 What we found,

24:53 however,

24:54 was if the incentive

24:56 weren't set in the appropriate way,

24:58 i.e.,

24:59 uh,

24:59 incentivized,

25:00 uh,

25:00 retail investors for,

25:02 uh,

25:03 uh,

25:03 short-term,

25:04 uh,

25:04 capital gains.

25:05 Uh,

25:05 uh,

25:06 the,

25:06 the impact was quite dramatic.

25:08 So as soon as the IPOs,

25:09 uh,

25:10 happened,

25:11 like,

25:11 uh,

25:11 you know,

25:11 uh,

25:12 retail investors,

25:13 uh,

25:13 sold their,

25:14 their shares.

25:15 Uh,

25:16 similarly,

25:16 we also found that for foreign investors,

25:19 their participation,

25:20 uh,

25:21 can also be a double-edged sword if If you,

25:24 if markets attracted speculative investors,

25:27 rather than longer term,

25:29 um,

25:29 uh,

25:30 foreign investors.

25:31 So wherever speculative investment

25:33 happened,

25:34 uh,

25:34 we found strong

25:36 impacts on,

25:37 uh,

25:37 volatility with negative

25:39 effects on,

25:40 uh,

25:41 specifically on retail investors,

25:43 uh,

25:43 because once retail investors

25:45 had negative experiences,

25:47 we found it took a long time to,

25:49 uh,

25:49 bring them back into the capital market.

25:52 And I hand over to Annika.

25:55 Thank you very much,

25:56 Michael,

25:57 and good morning,

25:58 good afternoon to everyone.

25:59 In the following,

26:00 I would like to give you now a flavor of the summary analysis

26:04 that looks at the impact of SOA listings on the broader economy.

26:08 Overall,

26:08 the summary analysis comprises of 5 key economic variables,

26:12 and in the next slide,

26:14 I will present you one of them,

26:15 which is the impact of SOL listings on plant performance.

26:19 When we looked at firm performance,

26:21 we found that the impact of SOE listings varies greatly

26:24 depending on several factors including the sector,

26:28 the ownership,

26:29 and the management structure,

26:30 and to some extent,

26:31 the strength of the market institutions.

26:34 If you have a look,

26:34 for example,

26:35 on figure 9,

26:36 you can see that across our case study countries,

26:39 it has especially been the telecom sector,

26:41 oil and gas,

26:42 and financial services that have seen significant

26:45 improvements in the operating earnings post listing.

26:49 Those improvements have often been the result of restructuring,

26:53 including sales of the controlling stakes

26:55 to strategic investors before or shortly

26:58 after the public offering.

27:00 Which for us also highlights really the importance

27:03 of changing the ownership and the management structure

27:06 in order to see firm performance improvements.

27:09 Good examples of those are,

27:10 for example,

27:11 Kenya Airways,

27:12 SONATE,

27:13 and BMCE or what is now known as Bank of Africa,

27:16 all of which were sold to strategic investors in combination with being listed.

27:21 Strong

27:22 market institutions such as the exchanges,

27:25 corporate governance or reporting standards

27:27 can play in a supportive role as well.

27:29 But what we found is that those effects usually tend to

27:32 be significantly weaker than those that can be achieved by privatization.

27:37 Having said that,

27:38 there are some cases where governments shouldn't or simply

27:42 don't want to privatize

27:44 fully their SOEs.

27:45 So in those cases,

27:47 SOE listings can offer a second best solution

27:50 because they can help governments to improve the transparency

27:53 and the corporate governance of their SOEs

27:56 and ultimately potentially also support firm performance.

28:00 Next slide,

28:00 please.

28:03 I think to conclude what Mike and I just said,

28:06 if it is fair to say that

28:07 SUO listings can significantly boost capital markets development

28:11 and provides certain benefits to the broader economy,

28:14 but only under certain conditions.

28:17 Next slide,

28:18 please.

28:18 Thus the two remaining questions

28:21 are

28:22 when should you list and what conditions do you need to have in place?

28:25 And in order to answer that question,

28:27 our report has looked at the preconditions for success

28:31 and what we call the drivers of impact.

28:33 When we talk about success,

28:35 we really simply mean that the SOE listing has been absorbed and settled

28:39 in the market and trades at a liquidity that is sufficient for,

28:43 for investors to come in and out.

28:45 That's it.

28:47 On the other hand,

28:47 when we talk about impact,

28:49 we really talk about all the parameters that Michael just referred to,

28:53 including,

28:54 uh,

28:54 market capitalization and also the breadth of the investor base,

28:58 and we look at it from a short term,

29:00 but also from a long-term perspective.

29:03 Now,

29:03 regarding

29:04 the conditions of success,

29:06 we actually found that there are relatively few,

29:08 and there are 3 of them that you can see on the slide,

29:11 I would like to highlight to you now.

29:13 The first one is the need for institutional competence

29:16 and competitive and transparent processes,

29:19 which will be key to provide

29:20 divesor and listing processes with sufficient credibility

29:25 to attract reputable investors and also to ensure public support.

29:30 The second condition is the strength of the capital markets infrastructure,

29:35 which includes well capitalized brokers,

29:37 a strong trading,

29:39 clearing,

29:39 and settlement infrastructure that can handle large volumes of transactions,

29:44 and a well-staffed

29:46 and independent regulator that can enforce good market conduct.

29:51 Lastly,

29:52 the third condition I would highlight is the choice of the SOE.

29:56 Not every SOE can and should be listed.

29:58 SOEs up for listing should have a certain size,

30:01 and most importantly,

30:02 they have to be profitable.

30:05 Next slide,

30:05 please.

30:07 Finally,

30:08 uh,

30:09 concerning the,

30:09 the drivers of impact,

30:11 the list is significantly longer.

30:13 We show you a few here,

30:14 but for the sake of time,

30:16 I only want to highlight two of them.

30:18 The first one is the need for having a relatively large SUE listing pipeline,

30:22 which Michael also referred to already.

30:24 And it is really because

30:26 single interventions

30:28 almost never really create markets.

30:30 To achieve market impact,

30:32 you do need

30:33 several SOEs that can be sold gradually over time

30:38 for multiple listings,

30:39 and it takes time and repetition

30:41 for people to learn in the industry and also for an industry to develop overall.

30:47 Second and lastly,

30:48 I want to highlight the need for a large domestic institution investor base,

30:53 because it is really

30:54 that

30:55 investor base,

30:56 the pension funds and insurance companies

30:58 that can absorb large proportions of the listing

31:00 and provide a minimum level of price stability.

31:04 That's what we have seen,

31:05 it's really those countries that have

31:07 uh had

31:08 a big capital markets development effects from the SOA listings,

31:11 they have had undertaken pension fund reforms before they have uh

31:16 um sold a significant amount of the SOA listings on the local exchange.

31:21 Thus,

31:22 given those preconditions and drivers,

31:24 I think the main point that I really want you to take away from this section

31:28 is that successful and impactful SOE listings

31:31 are usually integrated into a larger effort to reform the public sector.

31:37 And within,

31:38 within that reform agenda,

31:40 listings may be one of the top

31:42 objectives of a government,

31:43 but they usually are

31:45 one of the last steps for them to take.

31:48 And on that note,

31:49 I would like to thank you everyone for the attention

31:51 and next slide,

31:52 please,

31:53 and urge you to visit our website and download the report and read it.

31:56 Thank you very much.

31:57 Over to you,

31:58 Jean.

32:00 Thank you very much Anika and Michael,

32:01 and I saw someone ask where can we find the report,

32:04 so we are going to circulate the link so that you can access it,

32:08 uh,

32:08 and,

32:08 and please be assured that the presentation is just an appetizer on the report,

32:12 which covers uh really much more ground.

32:14 They focus on the key issues.

32:16 And there is a lot of work and time being spent on this and,

32:19 and very successful outcomes.

32:20 So thank you very much

32:21 Anika and Michael again uh for this work and the presentation,

32:25 which I think sets the scene very well

32:27 for our next phase of this morning,

32:29 which is,

32:30 uh,

32:30 which is a panel discussion.

32:32 Um,

32:32 and I think,

32:33 uh,

32:33 your,

32:33 your,

32:33 the presentation of your key findings highlights that actually a couple of

32:37 pretty difficult questions to look at,

32:40 uh,

32:40 when considering on how to,

32:42 um,

32:42 leverage the listing of SOEs for capital market development.

32:46 So let me highlight three of them.

32:48 Um,

32:49 one,

32:49 if listing can support the development of local capital market,

32:53 but they have a less strong effect on firm performance,

32:56 what role can they play in the current

32:58 environment where many SOEs will need a restructuring?

33:02 Uh,

33:03 second,

33:03 if domestic institutional investors are important,

33:06 not only to increase the potential of creating demonstration effect

33:10 but also to reduce risk of excess volatility in the stock market,

33:14 what could the government do to make SOE listing

33:17 more attractive to those domestic,

33:19 uh,

33:19 institutional investors?

33:21 Third question,

33:22 given that SOE listing requires all

33:24 these precondition or pre-requirement in place,

33:27 how closely should they be integrated in other reforms?

33:30 So what's the sequencing and integration?

33:33 What's,

33:33 uh,

33:33 how,

33:34 uh,

33:34 are there any second best solution

33:37 where certain preconditions are met but not others,

33:39 and how can we still,

33:40 um,

33:41 maximize the impact of SOEDity.

33:44 So to help me answer some of these questions,

33:46 I'm,

33:46 I'm very happy to have,

33:47 uh,

33:47 4 speakers on our panel today,

33:49 all of them with a lot of experience

33:51 with SOEDine coming from a very different perspective.

33:55 So I'm going to quickly introduce the four of them.

33:58 You have their full bios available on the website and,

34:01 and the,

34:01 uh,

34:02 the background for this session,

34:04 uh,

34:04 and then that will leave us more time for the discussion.

34:07 So let me start with uh Mrs.

34:08 Martha Cellier,

34:09 uh,

34:10 she's the Special secretary to the Investment Partnership

34:13 Program of the Ministry of Economy in Brazil.

34:16 Then we will have Doctor Mohammed Farid,

34:18 executive chairman of the Egypt Egyptian Stock Exchange,

34:22 and he's also the chairman

34:24 of the Federation of the EuroAsian Stock Exchange.

34:28 Mr.

34:29 Abel Sithol,

34:30 who is the CEO of the Public Investment Corporation in South Africa,

34:34 and finally,

34:35 uh Mr.

34:35 Nick Paget,

34:36 who is the co-founder and managing director of Frontoa Capital.

34:41 Um,

34:41 and as,

34:42 as we start the discussion,

34:43 please do not hesitate to continue to share your question on the,

34:46 on the chat.

34:47 Uh,

34:47 hopefully we'll have,

34:48 uh,

34:48 enough time at the end,

34:50 uh,

34:50 to come back on them and,

34:51 and ask them,

34:52 uh,

34:52 to the panelists.

34:53 So we will try to have two rounds of questions,

34:56 uh,

34:56 so I look forward to hearing from our panelists.

34:59 Let's also make sure that we manage collectively time,

35:02 uh,

35:02 so that we have a bit of,

35:03 uh,

35:03 question and answer,

35:04 uh,

35:05 at the end.

35:05 Mrs.

35:06 Cellier,

35:07 let me start with you.

35:08 So,

35:08 uh,

35:09 as the Special secretary to the

35:10 Ministry of Economy Investment Partnership Program,

35:13 you are now supporting the implementation

35:15 of Brazil's very ambitious privatization program.

35:18 How does Brazil's past expense in SOE

35:20 listing influence your current investment decision,

35:24 uh,

35:24 including of large SOEs such as Electrobras

35:27 or the postal services chorios?

35:29 What,

35:30 how do you

35:31 link together the past and the experience and what's happening today?

35:34 Marta,

35:35 the floor is yours.

35:36 Thank you so much.

35:38 Um,

35:38 it's a pleasure to be here.

35:40 I'd like to,

35:41 um,

35:42 congratulate first,

35:44 um,

35:44 this work,

35:45 uh,

35:46 of the,

35:46 the World Bank together with uh Oliver Wyman,

35:49 the government

35:50 of Luxembourg.

35:52 Um,

35:52 it was very interesting

35:54 reading the Paper and,

35:56 and understanding that its main conclusions.

35:59 As you know,

36:00 Brazil

36:01 is going through a large privatization program right now

36:05 and we already have uh a history of important SOEs that have been

36:10 uh divested or privatized in the past.

36:15 So we can say Brazilian um capital market um

36:19 is reaching,

36:21 let's say maturity uh each time

36:24 more enterprises are looking for,

36:27 for capital market here in Brazil.

36:29 Uh many reasons for that,

36:31 I guess the past SOEs that have been privatized uh basically in the 90s.

36:37 In Brazil

36:38 have helped a lot to develop capital markets uh here in Brazil.

36:43 You mentioned,

36:44 uh,

36:44 the demonstration effect and I guess somehow,

36:48 uh it has uh been important here in Brazil as well to have

36:52 SOE listings in the past,

36:54 encouraging

36:55 uh other SOEs and other,

36:58 um,

36:59 private enterprises to look For capital markets,

37:02 uh,

37:02 you know,

37:03 in Brazil

37:04 we have not only,

37:05 uh,

37:05 federal government SOEs but also SOEs at the state levels,

37:10 so we see how one process can influence others in terms of decisions reaching,

37:16 uh,

37:16 capital markets.

37:17 As an example,

37:19 uh,

37:19 we have the,

37:20 uh,

37:20 distribution of energy sector here

37:23 in.

37:23 Brazil,

37:24 where um each time less SOEs are found,

37:28 meaning that governors are looking for IPOs,

37:32 are looking for privatizations

37:34 to get the right investments,

37:36 uh,

37:37 to deliver the services to the population.

37:39 Today we'll have another privatization of a distribution energy company,

37:44 North Brazil in the state of Amapa.

37:47 Uh,

37:47 one of the last uh enterprises that are still public in this sector,

37:52 uh,

37:52 here in Brazil.

37:54 So,

37:54 um,

37:55 this,

37:55 uh,

37:56 development of the,

37:57 the capital markets in Brazil,

37:59 uh,

38:00 in my view is,

38:02 um,

38:02 natural since we have started in the past with great SOEs

38:07 and And we've been changing also,

38:09 also the role of our developing bank,

38:12 the BNTS

38:13 that before was very important um

38:16 to acquire those shares and to make part

38:20 of the absorption in capital markets

38:23 and today,

38:24 each timeless,

38:25 each time the bank is helping more.

38:28 Um,

38:28 in financing infrastructure and other sectors and also

38:32 helping us structure the privatizations with the feasibility

38:36 analysis and all that needs to be done,

38:38 uh,

38:39 to move forward with this attraction of private investments

38:42 agenda.

38:43 Um,

38:44 something we can see also,

38:46 uh,

38:46 that is interesting.

38:48 Is that Brazil

38:50 has reached um its lowest interest rate uh right now.

38:54 So

38:55 in 2020,

38:56 we see uh the number of IPOs growing a lot even though we had a difficult year

39:02 with uh coronavirus

39:04 and,

39:05 uh,

39:06 we realized that when people get less,

39:09 let's say safer income revenues from other portfolios because

39:14 the investment rate is so low,

39:16 then

39:17 People naturally look for

39:19 uh more um investment alternatives in capital markets.

39:23 So

39:24 we have reached a record in 2020,

39:27 uh,

39:27 compared to the years before.

39:29 We didn't see the number of IPOs and the volumes

39:32 we had in Sao Paulo Stock Exchange here in Brazil

39:35 since

39:36 maybe 2010

39:38 when we had a very important capitalization from Petrobras

39:42 and from then on,

39:43 uh,

39:43 last year was the

39:45 For sure,

39:46 the,

39:46 the most relevant year we had almost

39:48 $25 billion capitalization

39:52 uh in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange

39:54 and we reached

39:56 almost 3.5 million Brazilians,

39:59 individuals

40:00 that now are looking for this type of,

40:02 um,

40:03 uh,

40:03 investment

40:04 and one of the main reasons is,

40:06 um,

40:07 the low interest rate that we have right now in Brazil.

40:10 Also the fact that I guess coronavirus had

40:13 An interesting uh effect on enterprises looking for more financing,

40:19 uh,

40:19 not only public banks,

40:21 each time less public banks and more

40:23 capital markets to go through the crisis

40:26 and also to invest in technology and other alternatives that were,

40:30 uh,

40:31 perceived as very important to go,

40:33 uh,

40:33 through the,

40:34 the crisis.

40:35 We also saw movement

40:36 of,

40:37 um,

40:37 acquiring uh Competitors here in Brazil,

40:41 uh,

40:41 because of the crisis.

40:42 And another thing you mentioned is,

40:45 um,

40:45 the listing pipeline,

40:47 and that,

40:47 that's where

40:48 Brazil has a lot to present.

40:50 Not only we have been through

40:52 many divestments of SOEs and privatizations in the past,

40:55 but we have

40:56 a huge pipeline of very important enterprises

41:00 such as Eletrobras that is a giant for energy generation and energy transmission.

41:05 Here in Brazil,

41:06 we have just approved,

41:07 uh,

41:08 this week

41:09 the provisional measure in Congress that allows us to go

41:13 forward with the capitalization of Eletrobras that will happen,

41:17 uh,

41:17 we hope in the beginning of next year,

41:19 and,

41:20 uh,

41:20 we'll go through a model of capitalization where,

41:23 uh,

41:24 the federal government doesn't subscribe,

41:27 uh,

41:27 so we lose control of the company and also

41:31 Um,

41:31 uh,

41:32 we,

41:33 uh,

41:33 guarantee that no,

41:35 um,

41:36 individual will have more than 10% of the company,

41:39 so we're spreading,

41:40 uh,

41:41 the,

41:41 this,

41:41 um,

41:42 um,

41:43 voting power

41:45 in the,

41:45 the energy sector.

41:47 We have the National Post,

41:49 uh,

41:49 that we're discussing in Congress right now also

41:52 and structuring,

41:53 uh,

41:54 the privatization of the National Post here in Brazil.

41:57 Uh,

41:57 many enterprises from the transportation sector,

42:00 ports,

42:01 uh,

42:01 railways,

42:02 um,

42:03 basic sanitation that we have approved just recently,

42:06 a new law in Brazil to help privatization of SOEs

42:09 at the state level and also concessions and PPPs.

42:13 Telecom,

42:14 the sectors,

42:15 the,

42:15 the list of sec sectors is huge

42:18 and Brazil is moving very fast with an important pipeline of SOEs,

42:22 divestments and privatizations.

42:27 Thank you very much Martha for this overview and and lessons

42:30 learned and you have quite a bit in the pipeline,

42:32 so we may come back to that uh in some of the follow-up question.

42:35 So let me now turn to uh to Mohammed Faried.

42:38 So as,

42:39 as the chairman of the Egyptian Stock Exchange and also of the Federation.

42:43 But also as a former uh uh senior official in the Ministry of Investment,

42:47 you may have seen

42:48 good and less good

42:49 in terms of SOE listing.

42:51 So uh from your experience,

42:53 what are the key benefit and risk of SOE listing

42:56 for local capital market and how do you approach that in the Egyptian context?

43:00 Mohamed,

43:01 thank you.

43:02 Thank you.

43:03 Uh,

43:04 well,

43:05 uh,

43:05 first of all,

43:06 I would like to thank you,

43:07 uh,

43:08 to thank the World Bank,

43:09 Oliver Wyman and definitely my colleague and friend Doctor Edo,

43:13 uh,

43:13 and his chairmanship for ASEA for this report.

43:17 Uh,

43:18 I believe it's a very timely

43:20 and important report to take into consideration,

43:23 uh,

43:23 and to start,

43:24 uh,

43:24 I would say boosting in,

43:26 uh,

43:26 the SOE's listing again

43:28 in that regard.

43:29 But before

43:31 Tackling your,

43:32 uh,

43:32 your question or trying to tackle your question,

43:34 your difficult one,

43:36 John,

43:36 I would assume

43:37 would be,

43:38 uh,

43:39 would be to thank Martha for the extensive introduction about Brazil.

43:44 I think all of us now should think of closing

43:46 their markets and go to Brazil and invest over there.

43:49 So,

43:49 uh,

43:50 so thank you,

43:50 Martha for this extensive,

43:52 I would say,

43:53 uh,

43:53 promotion for,

43:55 for the activities and reforms you have been taking place.

43:58 Um.

44:00 Uh,

44:00 I,

44:00 I believe we had two waves of SOEs listing in Egypt,

44:04 uh,

44:05 and both of them were coupled with broader,

44:08 I would say macroeconomic reforms,

44:10 uh,

44:10 and this is one of the key lessons which is,

44:13 uh,

44:13 not the preconditions for listing of SOEs,

44:16 but the context within which you are listing

44:19 the state-owned enterprises in the market.

44:20 The first wave,

44:22 uh,

44:22 in Egypt was in 1992,

44:24 1993,

44:25 uh,

44:25 with the reactivation,

44:27 re-inauguration of the capital markets.

44:30 Uh,

44:30 plenty of listings took place through the market

44:33 and here maybe we're going to discuss the

44:34 type of listing itself because it made a difference

44:37 in the long term regarding its performance.

44:41 And all of this was coupled with

44:43 an IMF backed uh reform

44:46 to put the uh macroeconomic policy in place

44:50 in terms of monetary policy and how you deal

44:52 with your foreign exchange reserves and so on

44:54 and so forth and your balance of payments imbalances

44:57 and as well dealing with your fiscal imbalances

45:00 that was present at that point in time.

45:02 And during that period it was uh uh one of the golden eras

45:06 uh whereby we have seen activity rising more than

45:10 1,000% in the market.

45:12 Uh,

45:12 we've seen investors participating,

45:15 uh,

45:16 institutional,

45:17 individual investors and so on and so forth.

45:19 And then we have,

45:21 uh,

45:21 I would say a hiccup,

45:22 uh came uh to the market when we have seen the Asian crisis in 1998,

45:28 in 1999.

45:30 And this slowed down a little bit,

45:32 the SOEs.

45:33 One of the key pillars

45:35 that maybe we can as well mention

45:37 is to have a continuum of listings.

45:40 I believe

45:41 Arika mentioned

45:43 to have multiple listings rather than one incident or one event.

45:47 Because I believe one of the reforms that was with the aim

45:51 of

45:53 listing all or,

45:54 or basically privatizing all state-owned enterprises in

45:57 1992 was to create a special ministry

46:00 for all public sector companies,

46:02 state-owned enterprises under one ministry.

46:06 For the sake of portfolio management and active management

46:09 and hence should it

46:11 This ministry has done its proper role.

46:14 If you ask my opinion,

46:15 now it should have been vanished.

46:17 It shouldn't have been present

46:18 nowadays,

46:19 but it is still present

46:20 with some,

46:21 I would say 9 to 10 holding companies

46:23 underneath it with 150 something or 130 something

46:27 companies.

46:27 But of course we floated

46:29 something more than this amount during the 1992 era,

46:32 and then the Second era,

46:34 uh,

46:35 post,

46:36 I would say the Asian crisis and the dot-com bubble,

46:38 uh,

46:39 in 2001,

46:40 started in 2003.

46:41 Uh,

46:42 again,

46:42 we have seen a rise

46:43 in state-owned enterprises listing

46:46 with three or four listings that were quite sizable,

46:49 and the biggest one was Telecom Egypt at that point in time in 2000 and end of 2005.

46:56 But again,

46:56 this was coupled with a wider

46:59 uh fiscal policy reforms,

47:01 monetary policy reforms,

47:02 and financial sector reforms,

47:04 aggregation of companies increasing the capital,

47:06 capitalization of financial institutions,

47:08 insurance companies,

47:09 and so on and so forth.

47:10 And again we have seen at that point of time,

47:13 uh,

47:13 market capital to GDP exceeding the 100% mark,

47:16 reaching to 120% if I'm not mistaken at.

47:19 Points of time,

47:19 daily trading uh was uh quite significant compared to the previous figures.

47:25 And again,

47:26 some crisis come and here

47:27 is the point that,

47:28 that,

47:29 uh,

47:29 that we need to focus on in 2008,

47:31 uh,

47:32 slowing down in listings,

47:34 slowing down in follow-on listings because some of

47:37 the companies that were listed in 2004,

47:39 2005,

47:41 the aim was not

47:41 To,

47:42 uh,

47:42 to,

47:42 uh,

47:43 to be satisfied

47:44 with the 20 or 25% being listed on the market.

47:47 The aim was to,

47:48 to test the market with a 20%

47:51 free float,

47:51 but then to increase it to 40% and 50% and 60%

47:55 as you move along,

47:55 but this did not happen

47:57 because of the,

47:57 of course,

47:58 the valuations uh post the financial crisis

48:00 and maybe something and of course the Eurozone

48:03 problems.

48:05 But,

48:06 and then maybe something pertinent to,

48:08 uh,

48:08 pertinent to Egypt which is the uh

48:11 uh uh I would say instability that occurred in 2011,

48:16 uh,

48:16 the revolution and its aftermath and instability,

48:19 whether on the political and economic front.

48:22 What distinguishes,

48:23 I would say,

48:24 uh,

48:24 the periods and the listings would be the type of listings.

48:28 And I don't know if I should be stopping here or shall I continue,

48:31 so you,

48:32 you stop me,

48:32 John,

48:32 whenever you want me

48:33 to stop talking.

48:34 I'll,

48:35 I'll stop talking in that regard.

48:37 OK,

48:37 you sit down one or two minutes so that we have enough time,

48:39 but please finish your thought and then we'll turn to the colleagues.

48:43 OK.

48:43 Uh,

48:44 so we have 3 to 4 conditions if we want to see a sustainable,

48:49 I would say,

48:49 impact for SOEs on the markets.

48:52 Number 1 is are the preconditions,

48:53 as you mentioned,

48:54 or the macroeconomic conditions.

48:55 You cannot work

48:56 in and,

48:57 and,

48:58 and list.

48:59 I would say companies in a period where,

49:01 whereby you have a very slow down,

49:03 uh,

49:03 economic performance or a slow economic performance.

49:05 People are not optimistic and so on and so forth.

49:08 So

49:08 having your macroeconomic,

49:10 uh,

49:10 uh,

49:10 I would say picture in place is,

49:12 is quite,

49:13 it's quite very important.

49:15 The second aspect would be the size of the IPO itself and its type.

49:20 11 of the key drivers for the full-on success of the,

49:25 uh,

49:25 uh,

49:25 privatized companies

49:26 was the size of the issue.

49:28 We had two situations in 1994,

49:30 2 state-owned retail,

49:33 uh,

49:33 sorry,

49:34 uh real estate developers.

49:35 Uh,

49:36 one has floated 75% of its ownership and the other one has floated the 20 or 25%.

49:43 If we see those companies now,

49:45 the difference is huge between the one that you floated

49:48 75% and the one that you floated 25% only.

49:52 Uh,

49:53 and hence this is a very important point.

49:55 If we are really aiming to have

49:57 a real,

49:58 uh,

49:58 I would say transformation of the real economy

50:00 and a real impact on companies,

50:03 we need to

50:04 accept the fact,

50:05 uh,

50:06 that you need to go for very sizable listings,

50:08 uh,

50:09 a very significant free float in the market.

50:12 And

50:13 be happy with the incremental capital gains that

50:16 you're going to benefit by having the company

50:19 growing by,

50:20 by,

50:21 by,

50:21 by multiples of its current size,

50:24 given

50:24 the proper management,

50:25 proper governance,

50:26 uh,

50:27 and sufficient

50:28 free flow

50:29 that would allow institutional investors to come

50:31 and participate

50:32 without killing the secondary market trading in the market.

50:36 In some other markets when you get to see this,

50:38 even if they have,

50:39 uh,

50:39 I would say sizable IPOs,

50:41 if your institutional base is dominant above

50:45 the retail base,

50:47 you kill secondary market trading.

50:49 So the concept of,

50:50 of,

50:50 of,

50:51 uh,

50:51 I would say of the belief

50:53 that retail trading is only a volatility,

50:56 uh,

50:56 a driver and is not beneficial.

50:59 This is very wrong and it is,

51:00 and it would kill the secondary market trading in the market

51:03 and hence would not entice

51:05 institutional investors to enter into this because they know

51:08 they cannot go get out or in of this investment

51:10 without proper secondary market trading.

51:12 So it's a fine balance

51:14 between what

51:15 is the size for retail investors

51:18 and what is the size

51:19 for institutional investors.

51:22 Um,

51:22 as we have moving,

51:23 uh,

51:24 historically,

51:25 uh,

51:25 it was a big portion for retail investors.

51:27 Nowadays it is more towards institutional investors and

51:31 probably that's why we get to see liquidity,

51:33 not as,

51:34 uh,

51:34 as,

51:35 as it has been high,

51:36 uh,

51:37 as it used to be,

51:38 uh,

51:38 during the periods of

51:39 earmarking significant IPOs or significant portion of the IPO

51:43 to,

51:43 um,

51:44 retail investors.

51:45 Talking about what we're doing now in,

51:48 in,

51:48 in very.

51:50 Yeah,

51:50 quickly,

51:51 to conclude,

51:52 sure,

51:53 if you don't want me,

51:53 I can,

51:54 I can stop here and no,

51:55 no,

51:55 please,

51:55 your,

51:56 your word of conclusion.

51:57 Uh,

51:59 what is being happening now

52:01 that we have something like,

52:02 uh,

52:03 more or less the same lines like Martha,

52:05 Martha mentioned,

52:06 uh,

52:06 we have a pipeline of IPOs that has been announced by the Ministry of Finance,

52:10 uh,

52:11 privatizing state-owned enterprises.

52:13 In different fields.

52:14 But the challenge nowadays

52:16 that

52:17 the new,

52:17 I would say millennia and new investors

52:20 uh are not looking to traditional

52:22 in uh investment types.

52:24 They're looking more for

52:26 the fintech uh approach but then comes the problem

52:29 of valuations because the evaluation of these types of,

52:32 of,

52:32 of companies

52:33 are not based on the tradition.

52:35 Approaches of

52:36 cash flow projections discounting it,

52:37 it's a multiple and those multiples are quite uh different than,

52:41 uh,

52:42 than the,

52:42 the,

52:43 the,

52:43 the,

52:43 the normal multiples that we're looking at.

52:46 However,

52:46 we have a significant pipeline

52:48 that we're pushing with the government

52:50 start uh eagerly

52:52 uh IPO in the market,

52:53 in the insurance sector,

52:54 in the fintech sector and payments.

52:57 In the oil and gas as well sector and so on and so forth.

52:59 So we have significant and in the,

53:01 in the sports as well.

53:02 So that,

53:03 this is one of the new areas we were trying to privatize uh the sports,

53:08 uh,

53:09 the sports companies,

53:10 especially football companies like El Ali and and Malik and so on,

53:13 so that everyone can participate in a democratization of capital basically.

53:19 Thank you very much,

53:20 Mohamed,

53:20 and thank you for the expense and,

53:21 and also your passion in in sharing uh Egypt's experience.

53:25 So let me,

53:25 let me now turn to the other side of uh of the equation.

53:29 And,

53:29 uh,

53:30 and to Abel uh Sithold,

53:31 so you,

53:31 you're the new CEO of uh South Africa

53:34 Public Investment Corporation and you were a senior official also

53:37 previously in the government employee pension fund.

53:40 So you have a very good understanding

53:42 of the risk return appetite,

53:43 the investment strategy of pension fund,

53:45 and we just discussed

53:46 the balance between institutional investors and retail investors.

53:50 So what do you think is the general risk appetite

53:52 of domestic pension fund for SOE and privatized company and.

53:56 What are the criteria that,

53:57 uh,

53:57 uh,

53:58 according to which you will evaluate whether to invest

54:00 or not in an SOE or a prioritized company?

54:03 So what,

54:04 what's the other side of the equation and how do you see things going forward?

54:09 Aben,

54:09 the floor is yours.

54:12 Again,

54:13 uh,

54:14 just to start by,

54:15 of course,

54:15 uh,

54:16 expressing the,

54:17 the usual protocols of acknowledging and thanking,

54:20 um,

54:20 uh,

54:21 the,

54:21 the colleagues who worked on,

54:23 on the reports.

54:24 Uh,

54:24 I've had the opportunity of reading,

54:26 reading some of the,

54:27 um,

54:28 summaries,

54:28 and it's been extremely useful and will continue to be useful,

54:32 uh,

54:32 into the future.

54:32 So thanks for those who,

54:34 of course,

54:34 um,

54:35 uh,

54:35 have spent the time to do the,

54:37 the hard work.

54:38 Uh,

54:39 and of course for the World Bank to making,

54:41 uh,

54:41 and,

54:41 and IFC to making this platform,

54:43 uh,

54:44 possible and,

54:45 and,

54:45 and the colleagues who have joined the conversation.

54:48 Um,

54:48 I'm,

54:49 of course,

54:49 gonna speak from a South African context and,

54:51 and,

54:51 and ours is,

54:53 is an environment that,

54:54 um,

54:55 uh,

54:56 largely from a capital market point of view,

54:58 is,

54:59 is relatively mature.

55:00 In,

55:01 in,

55:01 in that um we've had a,

55:03 a stock exchange in South Africa going uh back to the 1887s

55:07 when gold was first discovered and there was a lot of trading

55:11 and that created a very strong and robust capital markets in the private sector.

55:16 Um and when the conversation around

55:18 listing state-owned enterprises um

55:22 um happened in the 1990s,

55:24 it happened in an environment where there was already

55:27 a very um

55:29 Uh,

55:29 tried and tested,

55:30 uh,

55:30 tested capital markets,

55:32 um,

55:33 um,

55:33 uh,

55:33 in South Africa.

55:34 So that,

55:34 that's one in,

55:36 and that has continued and has been the case,

55:38 um,

55:38 up to today that we do have a,

55:40 a,

55:41 a,

55:41 a,

55:41 a mature,

55:42 um,

55:43 um,

55:44 uh,

55:44 market in,

55:44 in capital markets in the one side.

55:47 Um,

55:47 the,

55:47 the,

55:48 the,

55:48 the,

55:48 the topic of today,

55:49 of course,

55:49 is,

55:49 is listing,

55:50 uh,

55:51 but,

55:51 um,

55:51 uh,

55:52 state-owned enterprises have access

55:54 and,

55:54 and contribute to capital markets beyond just,

55:57 um,

55:58 uh,

55:58 listing.

55:58 So in,

55:59 in,

55:59 in,

55:59 in the context of South Africa,

56:01 most of

56:02 our major state-owned enterprises might not be listed,

56:05 but,

56:05 uh,

56:06 play a very significant role in capital markets.

56:08 So

56:09 if you look at,

56:09 for instance,

56:10 our

56:11 Um,

56:11 our telecommunications,

56:12 uh,

56:13 uh,

56:13 company that was subsequently,

56:15 uh,

56:15 listed and you look at our uh power

56:18 uh producer,

56:19 Eskom,

56:19 you look at our,

56:21 uh,

56:21 a logistics company,

56:23 uh,

56:23 Transnet.

56:24 Um,

56:24 they're not listed,

56:25 so,

56:25 so Telkom was listed,

56:26 but the other two were not listed,

56:28 but actually already play a significant role in

56:30 the capital markets in the sense that,

56:32 um,

56:32 they actually don't have equity.

56:34 That,

56:35 um,

56:35 uh,

56:36 investors can participate in,

56:38 but can actually participate,

56:39 um,

56:39 uh,

56:40 in the bond markets because

56:41 these institutions are significant,

56:43 uh,

56:44 bond issuers,

56:45 uh,

56:45 which are traded,

56:46 um,

56:46 uh,

56:47 in,

56:47 in,

56:47 in the capital markets,

56:48 uh,

56:49 as well.

56:49 So,

56:49 so when we talk about the role that they can play,

56:52 it's not only listing,

56:53 there I think uh other mechanisms

56:55 for them to play a role,

56:56 but of course,

56:57 we do have

56:58 Uh,

56:59 examples where,

57:00 um,

57:01 uh,

57:01 uh,

57:02 state-owned enterprise,

57:03 enterprises themselves are actually list,

57:05 listed.

57:06 Uh,

57:06 I indicated,

57:07 um,

57:08 the listing of,

57:08 of Telkom as,

57:09 as,

57:10 as,

57:10 as an indicator of uh such a listing.

57:12 Uh,

57:13 there had been before that,

57:14 um,

57:14 uh,

57:14 other ones.

57:15 For instance,

57:16 um,

57:16 the,

57:16 the government used to own a

57:18 uh steel mine,

57:19 uh,

57:20 an iron ore mining and steel producing,

57:22 uh,

57:22 uh,

57:22 entity called ISCO,

57:24 uh,

57:24 which was then listed to create,

57:26 um,

57:26 uh,

57:27 uh,

57:27 and,

57:27 and now,

57:28 uh,

57:29 an entity that is now known.

57:30 As ArcelorMittal,

57:32 um,

57:32 uh,

57:32 as an example of,

57:33 uh,

57:34 an earlier,

57:34 um,

57:35 listing of a state-owned enterprise.

57:37 Um,

57:37 uh,

57:37 that has also spawned another entity which is the

57:40 mining side of that entity which is Kumba Resources,

57:43 which is a,

57:44 uh,

57:44 a significant,

57:45 uh,

57:45 player in,

57:46 in,

57:46 in our market.

57:48 But the question says,

57:49 what is the,

57:50 uh,

57:50 appetite of,

57:51 um,

57:51 uh,

57:52 institutional investors,

57:53 uh,

57:53 especially pension funds.

57:55 But the fortunate thing about South Africa is that um uh pension

57:58 funds uh were created and became very active way back in the

58:02 um early 50s.

58:04 Um so

58:05 the,

58:05 the creation of pension funds created an,

58:07 an,

58:07 an,

58:07 an,

58:08 an institutional base that um

58:10 had been um quite

58:12 uh active and,

58:13 and,

58:13 and was

58:14 um uh instrumental in making some of the listings quite successful

58:18 uh um all along.

58:20 There were other developments that actually contributed to the,

58:22 the,

58:23 the,

58:23 the,

58:23 that is the creation of other um uh

58:27 investors like what,

58:28 what in South Africa we call unit trust.

58:30 I think they are

58:31 ordinarily called

58:32 mutual funds

58:33 uh which

58:35 uh aggregate the,

58:36 the,

58:36 the,

58:36 the,

58:37 the investments of smaller investors and then actually then

58:40 uh invest them in capital markets so that it,

58:42 it creates a platform for

58:44 the smaller investor.

58:45 investors to be able to actually

58:47 uh play a role in capital markets and,

58:48 and then provide the support

58:50 over and above uh institutional

58:52 pension funds like um

58:54 uh pension funds.

58:55 Now,

58:55 the appetite is quite significant because

58:58 they create a,

58:59 a platform for matching the liabilities of pension funds.

59:03 Uh,

59:03 pension funds by their nature are long term.

59:05 Uh,

59:05 people start contributing in,

59:07 in their twenties and

59:09 are likely to,

59:09 to,

59:10 to,

59:10 to start.

59:10 That are,

59:11 um,

59:11 getting a benefit in their 60s and continue to

59:14 get a benefit way to their 90s in,

59:16 in,

59:16 in most instances.

59:18 And capital markets,

59:19 especially of

59:20 um the kind of um entities that state-owned enterprises are,

59:24 which are long term in their nature,

59:26 are very,

59:26 very

59:27 attractive and suitable

59:29 for that ability to match the liabilities

59:31 uh that are very,

59:32 very long term in,

59:33 in,

59:34 in,

59:34 in,

59:34 in,

59:34 in,

59:34 in their nature.

59:36 Uh,

59:37 and,

59:37 and in our experience in South Africa,

59:39 that

59:40 has,

59:40 has always been the case going back to the 50s and continues

59:44 to be the case now.

59:45 Uh and it manifests itself,

59:47 for instance,

59:48 both in South Africa and I think globally,

59:50 uh in the appetite for,

59:51 for instance,

59:51 for infrastructure,

59:52 which ordinarily

59:54 uh and historically has been

59:56 uh provided by state-owned enterprises.

59:58 And,

59:58 and as,

59:59 as they get privatized,

1:00:00 uh,

1:00:01 and then They they become listed,

1:00:03 they continue to be an attractive

1:00:05 um uh uh investment for institutional investors.

1:00:09 Um,

1:00:09 and,

1:00:09 and of course,

1:00:11 the,

1:00:11 the,

1:00:11 the,

1:00:11 the part that is,

1:00:12 is,

1:00:12 is also quite significant is,

1:00:14 is,

1:00:14 is one that is listed to develop other um avenues

1:00:18 uh for creating

1:00:19 possible markets that are very attractive to investors,

1:00:22 especially

1:00:23 institutional ones.

1:00:24 Um,

1:00:24 you,

1:00:25 you,

1:00:25 you,

1:00:25 you,

1:00:25 you,

1:00:26 you,

1:00:26 you had The,

1:00:27 the,

1:00:27 the,

1:00:27 the focus now on infrastructure,

1:00:29 on commodities,

1:00:30 uh,

1:00:30 to look at,

1:00:31 uh,

1:00:31 derivatives as,

1:00:32 as,

1:00:32 as,

1:00:33 as,

1:00:33 as,

1:00:33 as another

1:00:34 uh development that actually again provides

1:00:37 a different way of,

1:00:39 uh,

1:00:39 providing access

1:00:41 uh to capital markets and then of course,

1:00:43 uh,

1:00:44 strengthening,

1:00:45 uh,

1:00:45 and enlarging the,

1:00:46 the,

1:00:46 the,

1:00:47 the the capital market space,

1:00:49 um,

1:00:49 that,

1:00:49 uh,

1:00:50 investors can,

1:00:50 can,

1:00:50 can play in.

1:00:52 And then the,

1:00:52 the,

1:00:52 the,

1:00:53 the,

1:00:53 the,

1:00:53 the,

1:00:53 the last point I want to make is,

1:00:55 of course,

1:00:55 that capital markets by and large,

1:00:57 yes,

1:00:57 depend on the institutional investors,

1:00:59 but actually are quite inherently also linked to the economies of,

1:01:02 of,

1:01:02 of

1:01:03 of,

1:01:03 of,

1:01:04 of countries in a sense that

1:01:06 Um,

1:01:07 if people have no money,

1:01:08 they can't invest,

1:01:09 uh,

1:01:09 whatever it,

1:01:09 it is.

1:01:10 So,

1:01:10 so the first thing is to have robust economies

1:01:12 that make it possible for people to have,

1:01:14 uh,

1:01:14 excess income which needs to be put somewhere and,

1:01:17 and,

1:01:17 and markets then become the ideal environment,

1:01:20 uh,

1:01:20 to put that in.

1:01:21 If they put it in banks which are also in,

1:01:24 in,

1:01:24 um,

1:01:24 uh,

1:01:25 in,

1:01:25 uh,

1:01:25 in the capital markets,

1:01:27 that's another

1:01:28 intermediation that makes it possible for,

1:01:31 uh,

1:01:31 smaller investors to participate in capital markets.

1:01:34 So

1:01:34 You,

1:01:34 you need to look at the,

1:01:36 the,

1:01:36 the,

1:01:36 the,

1:01:36 the market infrastructure beyond just

1:01:39 uh what's happening,

1:01:40 for instance,

1:01:40 in an exchange,

1:01:41 but to say what other supporting infrastructure,

1:01:43 financial supporting

1:01:44 infrastructure is available

1:01:46 um to support

1:01:47 um the,

1:01:48 the,

1:01:49 the exchange because

1:01:50 once those entities are listed,

1:01:51 then you can find

1:01:53 uh different participants or investors

1:01:56 to actually make it possible for,

1:01:58 for the,

1:01:58 for the,

1:01:59 for the,

1:01:59 for the listing to actually to be successful.

1:02:01 Um,

1:02:01 our experience,

1:02:02 of course,

1:02:03 Has,

1:02:03 has,

1:02:03 has,

1:02:03 has been very,

1:02:04 um,

1:02:05 uh,

1:02:05 very good.

1:02:05 I think the listings of,

1:02:06 uh,

1:02:06 of,

1:02:07 of uh some of our state-owned enterprises has been very,

1:02:09 very,

1:02:10 uh,

1:02:10 beneficial for us as investors and we'll continue to,

1:02:13 to do so.

1:02:14 And to the extent that,

1:02:15 um,

1:02:15 the,

1:02:16 uh,

1:02:16 state-owned enterprises are already playing in capital markets,

1:02:19 especially on the bond side,

1:02:21 um,

1:02:21 that also has been,

1:02:22 uh,

1:02:23 a significant,

1:02:23 uh,

1:02:24 area of,

1:02:25 uh,

1:02:25 participation for pension funds to match the liabilities,

1:02:28 uh,

1:02:28 going forward.

1:02:29 Um,

1:02:30 I would like to stop there for now.

1:02:32 Thank you very much Amed,

1:02:33 very,

1:02:33 very interesting,

1:02:34 um,

1:02:34 uh,

1:02:35 experience and thank you very much for sharing.

1:02:36 So let me now turn to

1:02:38 uh Nick Paget,

1:02:39 um,

1:02:39 so you're the co-founder of Fronttal Capital,

1:02:41 and,

1:02:42 and in that context,

1:02:43 you have invested in listed equity in over 60 countries in the world.

1:02:47 So,

1:02:47 um,

1:02:48 do you think that SOE this thing is a lucrative business for foreign investors

1:02:52 and what has been your general investment strategy when it comes to SOE and,

1:02:56 and how can countries attract,

1:02:58 um,

1:02:59 capital investment like yours,

1:03:01 um,

1:03:01 when,

1:03:01 when they want to balance with the domestic,

1:03:03 um,

1:03:04 capital base?

1:03:05 Nick,

1:03:05 the floor is yours.

1:03:11 Nick you muted.

1:03:16 Apologies.

1:03:17 Yeah,

1:03:17 you can hear me now,

1:03:18 yes.

1:03:19 Uh,

1:03:19 I was just saying maybe a couple of words on Frontora because

1:03:22 I think we're probably not a name that's familiar to the audience.

1:03:25 So,

1:03:26 as you said,

1:03:27 we invest in,

1:03:28 uh,

1:03:28 frontier markets and small emerging markets globally.

1:03:32 Uh,

1:03:32 we were,

1:03:33 we've been around since 2007.

1:03:35 We've invested in nearly 60 countries,

1:03:37 as you said,

1:03:37 and we're presently in 23 countries.

1:03:39 So,

1:03:39 to give you an idea of what's in our portfolio today,

1:03:42 uh,

1:03:43 our largest countries would include places like the Philippines,

1:03:46 Kazakhstan,

1:03:47 Ghana,

1:03:47 Vietnam,

1:03:49 uh,

1:03:49 the exchanges of some of our panelists,

1:03:51 uh,

1:03:52 Egypt,

1:03:53 uh,

1:03:53 Senegal,

1:03:53 and Cote d'Ivoire from the BRVM.

1:03:56 As well as like Rwanda,

1:03:57 Turkey,

1:03:57 Papua New Guinea,

1:03:58 Nigeria,

1:03:59 and a dozen others.

1:04:00 Uh,

1:04:01 we typically hold investments for around 3 to 5 years.

1:04:03 It could be longer or shorter,

1:04:05 it depends on pricing and,

1:04:06 uh,

1:04:07 and,

1:04:08 uh,

1:04:08 events.

1:04:09 Uh,

1:04:09 we have had our longest holding for for 13 years.

1:04:13 Um,

1:04:14 And our turnover is only 29% since inception.

1:04:17 So we're definitely not hot money.

1:04:18 We're long-term buy and hold investors.

1:04:20 So now to your question,

1:04:22 we look at every IPO

1:04:24 on its merits.

1:04:25 Uh,

1:04:26 some deals are good and others are not.

1:04:28 And that's true whether or not it's an SOE deal.

1:04:31 So,

1:04:32 with regard to SOE deals,

1:04:33 I think there's three attributes that are most important to us.

1:04:36 The first is pricing.

1:04:38 Is the valuation

1:04:39 attractive or not?

1:04:42 We are very valuation sensitive.

1:04:44 So even the best businesses in the world

1:04:46 can be priced too high,

1:04:48 and we would not buy it.

1:04:50 Uh,

1:04:50 we do not buy them if,

1:04:51 if the price is not right.

1:04:54 Uh,

1:04:54 the second thing we would look at is ownership.

1:04:56 Uh,

1:04:56 the best SOE IPOs

1:04:59 have had a strategic investor

1:05:01 for the previous couple of years and the state

1:05:04 ownership is already reduced to a minority stake.

1:05:07 Uh,

1:05:07 the report highlighted the case of Safaricom in Kenya,

1:05:10 where Vodafone was the one in charge.

1:05:12 And,

1:05:13 uh,

1:05:13 Safaricom is a great example

1:05:15 of how to do things.

1:05:16 And it's regarded as a tremendous success story.

1:05:19 Uh,

1:05:20 even though it took 4.5 years for the stock

1:05:22 price to permanently move above its IPO price because of

1:05:26 the global financial crisis,

1:05:28 uh,

1:05:28 today,

1:05:29 this company is the most advanced mobile money offering in the world,

1:05:33 and the stock is 8 times its Kenyan shilling

1:05:36 listing price.

1:05:37 And uh even in US dollars,

1:05:39 it's up about 5-fold.

1:05:42 Beyond valuation and ownership,

1:05:44 the 3 attribute

1:05:45 we look at is the business itself.

1:05:47 How attractive is its competitive position,

1:05:50 and its growth prospects.

1:05:52 And it's fair to say that normally,

1:05:53 again,

1:05:54 we feel most comfortable if there's a strategic investor calling the shots.

1:05:59 So let me make some general points now.

1:06:01 Um,

1:06:01 we've invested in SOEs where the state owned a

1:06:04 majority and we've invested in SOEs where the state,

1:06:07 state was below 50%.

1:06:09 Overwhelmingly,

1:06:10 our best experiences

1:06:12 have been when the state is a minority investor.

1:06:14 And that's true both in terms of money made

1:06:17 and the qualitative interaction

1:06:19 we've had with the company and our impression of the quality of the company.

1:06:24 The report cited a couple of examples where the state was in control,

1:06:27 but there was a dynamic leader that led the turnaround,

1:06:30 you know,

1:06:30 YPF in Argentina in the 90s was one example.

1:06:33 Um

1:06:34 And there's some others in the report.

1:06:35 So,

1:06:36 uh,

1:06:37 this can happen,

1:06:38 but all things equal,

1:06:39 we'd rather have a strategic in charge,

1:06:42 um,

1:06:43 than a dynamic leader

1:06:45 running a state-controlled ent entity.

1:06:47 And that's for the simple reason that,

1:06:49 uh,

1:06:50 the state is eternal,

1:06:51 but the leader is not.

1:06:53 And the,

1:06:54 when the state's in charge,

1:06:55 the state can change the leader,

1:06:56 and especially if you've got a dynamic change agent leader

1:06:59 who may ruffle some feathers of politicians or special interests.

1:07:04 And the postscript on YPF is that the state has reasserted its authority in

1:07:07 the past decade for domestic political reasons

1:07:09 and not to the benefit of shareholders.

1:07:12 I was just looking at the stock chart

1:07:13 last night

1:07:15 and

1:07:16 uh the stock traded at an all-time high of $69.20

1:07:19 in September of

1:07:20 2005.

1:07:21 And even 10 years ago,

1:07:22 it's still around $42.

1:07:24 Yesterday,

1:07:24 it closed at $5.22

1:07:27 even with oil

1:07:28 back above $75 a barrel.

1:07:31 No stock splits.

1:07:33 Um,

1:07:34 that's the data from Bloomberg.

1:07:36 So,

1:07:36 I,

1:07:36 I,

1:07:37 I take it as it's shown.

1:07:38 Um,

1:07:39 YPF,

1:07:39 we knew better a few years ago when we were involved in Argentina.

1:07:43 Um,

1:07:44 we've not been involved

1:07:45 and involved,

1:07:46 uh,

1:07:46 since the government turned populist again the last couple of years.

1:07:50 Um,

1:07:51 let me make,

1:07:52 uh,

1:07:52 I've got a few other points.

1:07:53 Let me make one and then I,

1:07:54 I can stop in the interest of time.

1:07:56 Uh,

1:07:56 we,

1:07:57 we don't mind the state still owning a minority stake,

1:08:00 as long as it shows it's a passive investor.

1:08:03 Um,

1:08:03 if it's a regulated business,

1:08:05 uh,

1:08:06 an ongoing state minority ownership position can actually

1:08:09 provide some protection against bad regulatory interference.

1:08:12 And it can also help when the company is a large taxpayer to the state treasury.

1:08:16 That tends to prevent

1:08:17 The state from enacting uh damaging legislation

1:08:20 or regulation that's poorly thought out.

1:08:22 Um,

1:08:23 so,

1:08:24 I'll turn it back to,

1:08:25 uh,

1:08:25 our moderator or I,

1:08:27 I got a couple other points if,

1:08:28 if it's your call,

1:08:29 if you want me to keep going or stop here.

1:08:32 Thanks a lot,

1:08:33 Nick,

1:08:33 and uh very useful and,

1:08:34 and very practical.

1:08:36 So thank you very much for being that,

1:08:37 that candid and direct.

1:08:39 So,

1:08:39 um,

1:08:40 we,

1:08:40 I'm going to skip the second round of questions so that

1:08:42 we can open uh uh to the question raised and,

1:08:45 and Nick,

1:08:45 we may come back to some of the points that you were beginning

1:08:48 based on the question,

1:08:49 um,

1:08:49 um,

1:08:50 there,

1:08:50 um,

1:08:51 and,

1:08:51 um,

1:08:52 so the first question which is interesting is the

1:08:55 issue of the risk of concentration of ownership.

1:08:58 Uh,

1:08:58 explicit or implicit,

1:09:00 um,

1:09:00 I mean,

1:09:01 um,

1:09:02 it's a question from Jean-Pascal Gano,

1:09:04 um,

1:09:04 so it would be interesting,

1:09:06 I think Martha,

1:09:06 you alluded to that at the start on,

1:09:08 on measures that may have been taken in Brazil,

1:09:11 uh,

1:09:11 to make sure that there is no,

1:09:12 um,

1:09:13 capture in practice by private investor or you have threshold on,

1:09:17 on ownership.

1:09:18 So can you explain a little bit what has been

1:09:20 the expense of Brazil and the pros and cons,

1:09:22 uh,

1:09:23 of these approaches based on your expense?

1:09:28 Sure,

1:09:29 so for SOEs uh here in Brazil,

1:09:32 um,

1:09:33 we have to understand that different sectors,

1:09:36 uh,

1:09:36 are treated in different ways.

1:09:39 So,

1:09:39 uh,

1:09:40 sometimes we're talking about a sector where,

1:09:43 uh,

1:09:44 before having a privatization,

1:09:46 we need to have a concession,

1:09:47 a contract,

1:09:48 um.

1:09:49 Um,

1:09:49 talking about how,

1:09:51 uh,

1:09:52 service must be provided because we're still

1:09:54 talking about some public services sometimes.

1:09:57 So

1:09:58 besides selling the company its shares,

1:10:00 you have a contract,

1:10:02 um,

1:10:03 about how to deliver the services to the population.

1:10:06 That's the case,

1:10:06 for example,

1:10:07 when you have the privateization of a port company.

1:10:10 Uh,

1:10:10 you'll,

1:10:11 you'll still have the need to have a regulation,

1:10:14 a regulatory agency

1:10:16 looking at this,

1:10:18 uh,

1:10:18 investor,

1:10:19 this private investor,

1:10:20 uh,

1:10:20 with,

1:10:21 uh,

1:10:22 investment obligations,

1:10:23 levels of quality of services.

1:10:26 Making sure

1:10:27 that the port is,

1:10:28 the port is open for all the enterprises and everyone that needs to enter

1:10:34 this port.

1:10:34 So

1:10:35 we have many types of regulations,

1:10:38 uh,

1:10:39 sometimes inside the contract.

1:10:41 And um that makes us not necessarily

1:10:45 uh have requirements for the selling of uh the shares,

1:10:51 but for the signing of the contract.

1:10:53 So it all depends on the model that,

1:10:55 that we're talking about.

1:10:57 When we talk about Eletrobras for example that I mentioned,

1:11:00 it's this uh giant energy company we have in here in Brazil that we just approved

1:11:05 a law.

1:11:06 Uh,

1:11:06 so that we can move forward with the capitalization

1:11:10 since it's so strategic because it's responsible

1:11:13 for almost half of the energy that is generated in Brazil

1:11:18 and more than half the transmission lines that we have here in Brazil.

1:11:22 So it is very strategic and we didn't want

1:11:25 one shareholder to be responsible for all the main decisions of this company.

1:11:31 So

1:11:31 Uh,

1:11:32 we decided to move,

1:11:33 uh,

1:11:34 through a capitalization of,

1:11:36 uh,

1:11:36 this company.

1:11:38 Uh,

1:11:38 making sure

1:11:39 that we have,

1:11:40 uh,

1:11:40 restrictive voting power,

1:11:43 so,

1:11:44 uh,

1:11:44 no,

1:11:45 no shareholder will have more than 10% of,

1:11:48 of this company.

1:11:49 So this was a,

1:11:50 a decision for Eletrobras,

1:11:52 for example,

1:11:53 and then government will lose control

1:11:55 of the company but still will,

1:11:57 will remain with some relevant,

1:11:59 um,

1:11:59 share,

1:12:00 uh,

1:12:00 in the case of,

1:12:01 um.

1:12:03 Eletrobras.

1:12:04 When we talk about the National Post,

1:12:05 for example,

1:12:06 it's a complete different thing.

1:12:08 Uh,

1:12:08 we have to make sure that the privatization process here in Brazil,

1:12:13 uh,

1:12:13 keeps delivering the services to the population all over the country.

1:12:17 That is a very big country with different conditions.

1:12:21 So it's not only about selling the company,

1:12:23 it's not only about,

1:12:25 um,

1:12:26 thinking about making money out of the private sector.

1:12:29 Not at all.

1:12:29 The privatization here in Brazil of most companies that we have

1:12:34 is aimed at bringing investments to the sector.

1:12:38 So because Brazil has a fiscal

1:12:40 situation,

1:12:40 uh,

1:12:41 that is difficult because public investments aren't happening.

1:12:44 Uh,

1:12:44 we need to bring more private investments to all those strategic sectors,

1:12:48 and we believe that,

1:12:49 uh,

1:12:50 the privatization is the right way to make sure

1:12:53 we bring the right amounts of investments,

1:12:56 but that,

1:12:57 uh,

1:12:57 comes with a list of obligations most times,

1:13:02 depending on the sector.

1:13:03 So for the National Post,

1:13:04 it's not only about selling the.

1:13:06 Shares

1:13:07 and everything that the company has today.

1:13:09 It is about keeping the services to all the more

1:13:13 than 5500 cities that we have here in Brazil.

1:13:17 So we will have a contract

1:13:19 together with this privatization process.

1:13:22 Uh,

1:13:22 we'll have a,

1:13:23 a regulatory agency making sure that services will be delivered.

1:13:28 So that's the,

1:13:29 the,

1:13:29 the most important thing when we talk about

1:13:32 privatization of SOEs here in Brazil.

1:13:34 It's that

1:13:35 it's not only about finding

1:13:37 Uh,

1:13:38 the,

1:13:38 the investors that have the right

1:13:41 capacity of making investments because that's an issue as well.

1:13:44 You have to understand,

1:13:46 uh,

1:13:46 what's the size of this IPO

1:13:48 and,

1:13:49 uh,

1:13:49 who could participate,

1:13:51 uh,

1:13:51 with immediate capital contribution to the process,

1:13:54 what's the size of the companies that will be able to participate,

1:13:58 uh,

1:13:59 will there,

1:14:00 uh,

1:14:00 be any need of,

1:14:01 uh,

1:14:01 valid.

1:14:02 of the Brazilian government or the agency in the case of uh changing control

1:14:08 after you have the,

1:14:08 the IPO of the company,

1:14:10 the privatization.

1:14:11 What are the pre-qualification mechanisms in the case of a contract together

1:14:16 uh with the privatization.

1:14:18 So all this is,

1:14:19 is very important and

1:14:21 it,

1:14:21 it depends a lot on what we're talking about,

1:14:24 what sector,

1:14:25 uh,

1:14:25 we're moving forward with.

1:14:27 Thank you very much Martha.

1:14:29 Mahmed,

1:14:29 can I turn to you also on that issue of concentration

1:14:31 and what has been the experience and the response uh in um

1:14:35 in Egypt,

1:14:35 so I go to you and then I have a question to,

1:14:38 after that to Nick and um Abel on,

1:14:40 on protection of

1:14:41 minority shareholders.

1:14:43 To,

1:14:43 to continue the point just opened by Nick before,

1:14:46 so

1:14:47 first,

1:14:47 Mohammed on that issue of concentration,

1:14:49 and then I will turn to Abel and Nick,

1:14:51 uh,

1:14:51 on,

1:14:51 on somehow,

1:14:52 uh,

1:14:52 protecting against the right of the state,

1:14:54 uh,

1:14:54 as you put it,

1:14:55 I think Nick earlier in the context of SOE district.

1:14:58 Mohammed.

1:14:59 OK,

1:15:00 uh,

1:15:00 I have two very quick comments before answering the issue of concentration,

1:15:04 and I'll have to interfere with the protecting minority as well,

1:15:07 unfortunately,

1:15:08 so I'll have to cover the spectrum.

1:15:10 Sorry about that,

1:15:11 but uh

1:15:12 I mean,

1:15:12 it happens in all cases.

1:15:14 As long as you do it sharply,

1:15:15 we're fine.

1:15:17 OK,

1:15:17 um,

1:15:18 uh,

1:15:18 for the issue of sustainability and seeing the impact on capital markets long term.

1:15:23 We cannot be waiting or we cannot wait for reforming

1:15:27 the public pension schemes and the public pension funds.

1:15:30 What we need to do is to have direct education

1:15:33 and financial and investment literacy with the public to have direct investments.

1:15:37 Now with the technological advancements,

1:15:40 we need not to wait

1:15:41 to have 1 million,

1:15:42 2 million,

1:15:43 30 million investors

1:15:45 investing incrementally on a passive approach

1:15:48 in capital markets,

1:15:50 and this is the only way to create.

1:15:51 Middle income class,

1:15:52 by the way,

1:15:53 the only way to create a middle income,

1:15:55 proper middle income class in economies is to have incremental saving long term,

1:16:00 2025 years,

1:16:02 doing it with very small amounts long term.

1:16:04 We cannot wait.

1:16:05 We cannot afford to wait to reform the public pension schemes.

1:16:08 So that is one of the points that I wanted to mention before

1:16:12 concentration risk.

1:16:14 I believe is not an issue,

1:16:16 uh,

1:16:17 uh,

1:16:17 and here you're talking about concentration,

1:16:19 a risk of ownership,

1:16:20 uh,

1:16:21 uh,

1:16:21 for the public.

1:16:22 Yes,

1:16:22 if I'm,

1:16:23 if I'm not mistaken,

1:16:24 for the public sector itself

1:16:25 is not an issue,

1:16:26 but it would depend on the sector.

1:16:28 I believe,

1:16:28 uh,

1:16:28 uh,

1:16:29 beautifully uh mentioned,

1:16:31 uh,

1:16:32 uh,

1:16:33 here would,

1:16:33 uh,

1:16:33 would depend on the type of sector

1:16:35 if it is a regulated sector or unregulated sector because regulated sectors

1:16:39 would allow you not to have intervention.

1:16:42 So,

1:16:42 uh,

1:16:42 so,

1:16:43 so basically

1:16:44 if we're talking about a level of governance

1:16:46 that is being,

1:16:47 uh,

1:16:48 uh,

1:16:49 disclosed,

1:16:50 implemented in

1:16:52 the country and the companies,

1:16:54 you don't have this type of risk.

1:16:55 On the contrary,

1:16:56 you will be ensuring that you have a minimum level of voice,

1:17:00 uh,

1:17:01 by retail investors,

1:17:02 by institutional investors,

1:17:03 by minority investors

1:17:05 in those companies,

1:17:06 for example,

1:17:07 like

1:17:08 Uh,

1:17:09 the,

1:17:09 the incremental voting for having,

1:17:11 uh,

1:17:12 minorities in,

1:17:13 on the board.

1:17:14 So it is a mixture of both,

1:17:16 let me put it that way.

1:17:17 However,

1:17:18 if we're talking about a sector

1:17:19 that has no real

1:17:22 undisclosed governance practices,

1:17:24 OK,

1:17:25 and regulations,

1:17:25 then in that case it,

1:17:26 it might be problematic at any one point of time

1:17:29 as Nick mentioned that the state can be changing

1:17:32 the,

1:17:32 the rules of the game basically and you will have to abide by it.

1:17:35 So.

1:17:35 So,

1:17:36 however,

1:17:36 having this

1:17:38 being companies that are listed makes it much more difficult

1:17:41 as opposed to being unlisted securities.

1:17:44 So basically investing through

1:17:46 SOEs that are listed

1:17:47 is much safer,

1:17:49 not safer.

1:17:49 I,

1:17:49 I don't,

1:17:50 I'm not,

1:17:50 I'm not trying to say safer.

1:17:52 It is,

1:17:52 uh,

1:17:52 you don't witness problematic issues with uh concentration of ownership

1:17:57 as it is the case for unlisted securities

1:18:00 when we come to that,

1:18:01 uh,

1:18:01 uh,

1:18:02 to that area.

1:18:03 For protecting minorities,

1:18:05 you need to have very clear rules

1:18:07 and to push with other entities,

1:18:08 not only the World Bank.

1:18:10 I believe one of the problems,

1:18:11 and I'll be very

1:18:12 as well honest here and,

1:18:13 and,

1:18:14 uh,

1:18:15 and,

1:18:15 uh,

1:18:15 and frank,

1:18:16 one of the problems with the World Bank and the

1:18:18 IMF and the IFC and all of these entities,

1:18:21 if you allow me,

1:18:21 Anika,

1:18:22 to to be,

1:18:23 to be blunt here,

1:18:24 is that

1:18:25 with every single macro.

1:18:26 Economic,

1:18:27 uh,

1:18:27 I would say policy reform and policy loan,

1:18:30 you don't have clear cut reforms

1:18:32 tackling capital markets.

1:18:34 So it is always being considered as a private sector white collar,

1:18:38 uh,

1:18:39 thing that people need to

1:18:41 do it their own.

1:18:42 No,

1:18:42 it's not the case.

1:18:42 It is a complementary product to have,

1:18:45 uh,

1:18:46 uh,

1:18:46 if you have a budget loan that is being provided.

1:18:48 Or uh,

1:18:49 uh,

1:18:50 a project loan,

1:18:51 you need to bundle it with

1:18:53 proper capital market development and financial inclusion and,

1:18:57 uh,

1:18:57 financial literacy.

1:18:58 Without having proper financial literacy starting from the age

1:19:01 of 10

1:19:02 maximum,

1:19:03 you will not be having new breed of investors

1:19:06 that would understand the concepts of incremental

1:19:08 saving and the importance of capital market.

1:19:12 Thank you very much,

1:19:12 Mohammed,

1:19:13 and I'm,

1:19:13 I'm sure that we look forward to continuing

1:19:15 the discussion bilaterally with the Egypt authorities.

1:19:18 Um,

1:19:18 we started it,

1:19:19 you may remember,

1:19:20 18 months ago,

1:19:21 so very happy to continue.

1:19:22 So let me turn to Abed and Nick.

1:19:24 I'm going to start with Abed and that issue of,

1:19:26 uh,

1:19:27 uh,

1:19:27 somehow the,

1:19:28 the influence of the state,

1:19:29 protection of minority shareholder.

1:19:31 How do you see that as an investor

1:19:33 and somehow what are the red lines,

1:19:35 uh,

1:19:35 that,

1:19:35 that come,

1:19:36 uh,

1:19:36 from in your decision making?

1:19:40 Uh,

1:19:40 the protection of minorities,

1:19:42 of course,

1:19:42 starts even before you have a,

1:19:44 a,

1:19:44 a listing,

1:19:45 an IPO.

1:19:46 It starts with your,

1:19:48 uh,

1:19:48 your,

1:19:49 your policy framework and your legal framework.

1:19:51 So,

1:19:52 so the,

1:19:52 the,

1:19:53 the,

1:19:53 the,

1:19:54 for instance,

1:19:54 in,

1:19:54 in our case,

1:19:55 you,

1:19:55 you,

1:19:56 you,

1:19:56 you,

1:19:56 you talk about there is a company's um,

1:19:58 uh,

1:19:59 law that protects minorities,

1:20:01 um,

1:20:01 and extends to,

1:20:03 um,

1:20:03 uh,

1:20:03 the listed environment so that,

1:20:05 that's quite important that,

1:20:06 um,

1:20:07 that is there,

1:20:08 um.

1:20:08 Because minorities are not only in,

1:20:11 in,

1:20:11 in,

1:20:11 in,

1:20:11 in the distant environment,

1:20:13 you have minorities in other aspects of uh the capital

1:20:15 markets where there's a need to actually protect them.

1:20:18 So

1:20:18 you need to look at the overall

1:20:20 uh policy and,

1:20:21 uh,

1:20:22 company,

1:20:22 uh,

1:20:23 legislation environment to,

1:20:24 to protect minorities.

1:20:26 In the listed environment,

1:20:27 especially when you're listing,

1:20:28 uh,

1:20:28 state-owned enterprises,

1:20:29 is to make sure that you have strong

1:20:31 shareholder agreements,

1:20:33 um,

1:20:33 uh,

1:20:34 designed specifically to protect minorities.

1:20:37 And to limit the influence of um

1:20:40 the principal uh seller,

1:20:41 the shareholder who is government,

1:20:43 who has

1:20:44 more powers than just shareholding because as I think

1:20:46 uh Nick made the point earlier to say,

1:20:48 well,

1:20:48 um,

1:20:49 the government,

1:20:50 of course,

1:20:50 can always change the rules.

1:20:51 So you need those protections to be encapsulated in,

1:20:54 in the shareholders' agreement to protect,

1:20:56 um,

1:20:56 your,

1:20:57 your,

1:20:57 your,

1:20:57 your,

1:20:57 your,

1:20:58 your,

1:20:58 your,

1:20:58 your minorities.

1:20:59 Um,

1:21:00 I just,

1:21:00 I think I'll stop there and just,

1:21:02 um,

1:21:02 uh,

1:21:02 grant Nick an opportunity to respond to the same.

1:21:07 Thank you very much Eve including for being careful with time,

1:21:08 Nick.

1:21:10 Well,

1:21:11 I think,

1:21:12 you know,

1:21:12 we,

1:21:13 we,

1:21:13 we look at everything on its own merits and you gotta look at the total

1:21:16 package.

1:21:17 Um,

1:21:18 you know,

1:21:19 I,

1:21:19 I see in the question box,

1:21:20 someone asked about the government wanting to,

1:21:24 um,

1:21:25 still keep voting majority through a golden share or something like that.

1:21:28 And,

1:21:29 um,

1:21:30 you know,

1:21:30 we wouldn't like something like that,

1:21:31 but we just,

1:21:32 we'd have to evaluate it.

1:21:33 It,

1:21:34 It's gonna all things equal,

1:21:35 lower valuation.

1:21:36 You know,

1:21:36 maybe it lowers the valuation by 20 or 30%,

1:21:40 you know,

1:21:40 that's the trade-off the government has to consider or uh the SOE has to consider.

1:21:44 You know,

1:21:44 we would,

1:21:45 that would certainly make it less likely for us to invest,

1:21:48 but the lower valuation might make it more likely,

1:21:50 and then you just,

1:21:51 we look at it in totality.

1:21:53 Um.

1:21:54 As far as minority protections,

1:21:55 you know,

1:21:55 there's,

1:21:56 without getting all the details,

1:21:58 you know,

1:21:58 the,

1:21:58 the developed markets around the world have a pretty

1:22:01 um well-established framework,

1:22:03 be it the US or the UK of of various package of minority protections.

1:22:07 So,

1:22:07 the closer that a local exchange is toward those um

1:22:11 global standards,

1:22:12 the better,

1:22:12 and the further away,

1:22:14 you know,

1:22:14 the worse and all things equal,

1:22:15 that,

1:22:16 again,

1:22:16 is going to affect valuation.

1:22:18 Uh,

1:22:19 with regard to concessions,

1:22:21 um,

1:22:22 I think,

1:22:23 uh,

1:22:24 uh,

1:22:26 What,

1:22:26 where we've seen it go wrong

1:22:28 is,

1:22:29 I'll give a case like Umimi,

1:22:31 um,

1:22:31 the big power company in Uganda,

1:22:33 which was privatized first

1:22:36 with,

1:22:36 uh,

1:22:37 through private equity ownership and then listed.

1:22:39 As a listing,

1:22:40 it's not,

1:22:40 the,

1:22:40 the privatization overall has been a success,

1:22:42 but as a listing,

1:22:43 it's not made money for shareholders.

1:22:45 And we've never invested in it

1:22:46 because the government was constantly tinkering with

1:22:49 what they wanted,

1:22:50 um,

1:22:51 Sort of the,

1:22:52 the key concession terms or,

1:22:53 or what,

1:22:54 they didn't provide clarity on how they were gonna renew the terms,

1:22:57 you know,

1:22:57 where they're gonna seek a better deal.

1:23:00 And we've seen that also in Pakistan with um

1:23:03 independent power producers,

1:23:04 which are not necessarily SOEs,

1:23:06 but they,

1:23:07 their customers

1:23:08 and suppliers are the state.

1:23:10 And to the extent they tinkered with the

1:23:12 concession terms or didn't provide clarity on things,

1:23:16 you know,

1:23:16 that definitely has hurt valuation and the stock performance.

1:23:18 So,

1:23:18 we're always

1:23:19 um

1:23:20 The concessions make sense and,

1:23:22 and,

1:23:22 and terms need to be defined,

1:23:24 but to the extent the state

1:23:26 Manipulates them,

1:23:27 you know,

1:23:27 that makes the,

1:23:28 the underlying investment,

1:23:29 whether SOE or not,

1:23:30 less attractive,

1:23:32 uh,

1:23:32 for someone like us.

1:23:33 And we're always,

1:23:34 you know,

1:23:34 that's the kind of thing we look at.

1:23:36 Again,

1:23:36 each case is its own case.

1:23:38 You've gotta consider carefully.

1:23:41 Thank you very,

1:23:41 oh sorry,

1:23:42 I,

1:23:42 I,

1:23:42 I need to get you closer.

1:23:44 Thank you very much Nick,

1:23:45 including

1:23:46 the fact that you look at the package and then there is a valuation,

1:23:48 so there are trade-offs,

1:23:49 I think there are trade-off on the state side,

1:23:51 but as you mentioned,

1:23:52 very strong trade-off also on the investment side.

1:23:55 Um,

1:23:55 so sorry we have to come to an end because it was really a,

1:23:58 a fascinating discussion and,

1:24:00 and,

1:24:00 and panel.

1:24:01 So,

1:24:01 uh,

1:24:01 big thanks,

1:24:02 uh,

1:24:02 to the four of you

1:24:03 and also big thanks to everybody who's listening and

1:24:06 sent a very interesting question through the chat.

1:24:08 I'm sorry we cannot go through everything.

1:24:10 I,

1:24:11 I can,

1:24:11 uh,

1:24:11 only say that this is

1:24:13 really the start of a discussion.

1:24:15 Uh,

1:24:15 the,

1:24:16 the report is now available online,

1:24:17 so please do not hesitate to go,

1:24:19 read,

1:24:20 download,

1:24:21 um,

1:24:21 and,

1:24:21 and.

1:24:22 And I hope that we'll have the opportunity

1:24:23 to continue to have events around these issues,

1:24:25 the report or more generally,

1:24:27 uh,

1:24:28 this kind of uh challenges.

1:24:29 Very interesting also to have a different set of perspective uh from the panelists.

1:24:34 Uh,

1:24:34 big thanks to the authors of the report and the

1:24:37 team who prepared it because that's a really important contribution

1:24:40 to the development of uh local capital market.

1:24:42 And let me conclude by thanking obviously,

1:24:46 uh,

1:24:46 Oliver Wineman,

1:24:46 the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg,

1:24:48 the African.

1:24:49 Securities Association,

1:24:51 it was really a pleasure to have all of you today

1:24:53 and uh we very much look forward uh to continued work,

1:24:56 continued dialogue,

1:24:58 and to,

1:24:58 um,

1:24:59 support to the countries,

1:25:00 uh,

1:25:01 uh,

1:25:01 making,

1:25:02 uh,

1:25:02 uh,

1:25:03 progress in the development of local capital market,

1:25:05 including

1:25:06 through a so these things.

1:25:07 So thank you very much everybody,

1:25:09 a fascinating discussion,

1:25:10 and we look forward to have you again,

1:25:12 uh,

1:25:12 in the future and have a great day everybody.

1:25:15 Thank you,

1:25:15 bye bye.

showAllTimestamps
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transcript
Uh, good morning, good afternoon, uh, good evening, bonjour. So before we start the event, I would like to remind you that we have simultaneous translation from French to English and English to French. So if you go on the Zoom app, you will find a symbol looking like a globe, which if you press on it will allow you to choose. The appropriate channel for you. Thank you very much. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, I'm delighted to welcome you today for our launch event of the joint report listing state-owned enterprises in emerging and developing economies, lessons learned for 30 years of success and failure. My name is Jean Penn. I'm the Global director for Finance at the World Bank, and it is really my pleasure and my honor to be your moderator for today's discussion. Policies around SOE investment can be complex. Policymakers and practitioners must balance various objectives such as raising fiscal revenue, improving firm performance, democratizing share ownership, and supporting capital market development. Some may decide listing via the stock exchange are the best way to go, especially where countries aim to develop their local capital market. Our discussion today will look at the issue on when and how to use listing as a disinvestment strategy from the lens of the capital market development. We hope that this report will be a useful guide for you, helping you learn more about the SOE listing experiences of other countries, which potential development effects on the local capital market to expect in the short, medium, and long term. And the condition under which they can be realized and how to maximize impact. Before we begin, I'd like to sincerely thank our partners, in particular, Ava Wyman, the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg, and the African Securities Exchange Association, which have supported us throughout this work. And I would like to start by welcoming Mr. Arsene Jacobi, the Director of Multilateral Affairs, Development and Compliance in the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg. Arsen, on behalf of the World Bank and the Joint Capital Market, or JCAP, I would like to thank you personally and the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg for your continuous support for our knowledge development activities that have allowed us to push the knowledge fron frontier on capital markets development. It's really a pleasure to have us, to have you join us today, and I really look forward to your welcome address. Ian, the floor is yours. Well, thank you, thank you, Jean, for your kind words. Uh, mercivo coujean, rescier. uh, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is really a pleasure for me to be here today and celebrate together with you the launch of the SOE listing report, a report that was spearheaded by the World Bank's Joint Capital Markets Program in close collaboration as Jean mentioned with Oliver Wyman. The African Stock Exchange Associate and the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg. Luxembourg has been supporting the World Bank's capital, joint capital markets work under the JCAP initiative almost since its start in 2018. We are a big supporter of uh JCAP because it aligns very well with uh our own development aspirations. Indeed, we believe that capital markets play a fundamental role in economic growth and financial stability by allocating local currency and long-term capital to projects that help create jobs and this not only in the developed world but also in developing economies. Our goal, given the role of our financial sector is to continuously drive financial innovation. For example, we are the home of the Green exchange, the world's leading platform for issuing and listing green social and sustainable securities. The JCAB initiative is working to play a similar role in emerging and developing economies, that is leveraging capital markets to promote economic growth and jobs creation while maintaining financial stability. For example, Jacob has worked to develop and leverage capital market solutions for affordable housing in Kenya, SME financing in West Africa, and climate action in Morocco. And in doing so, it makes a continuous effort to share its experience and its knowledge not only across its focus countries but across all emerging and developing markets with an interest in developing local capital markets. It is precisely for those reasons that Luxembourg became an early supporter of JCAP and its knowledge work. Over the past years, we already had a few reasons to celebrate. For example, late last year with Luxembourg's support, JCAP delivered its inaugural Capital Markets conference in Abidjan, attended by over 300 international, regional, and domestic capital markets professionals. Jacob also produced a policy primer with the help of Luxembourg published late last year with the aim to inform and guide the public and private sector approach to local capital markets development. And together with JCAP we are working on a new report on crowdfunding and the efforts of COVID-19 that we expect to come out later this year. If JCAP's in-country work is really at the heart of its efforts to help develop local capital markets, then the knowledge work on the JCAP that we very much support has shaped and informed said in-country work. Both actually go hand in hand indeed. Therefore, it is with great pleasure and pride that I welcome you here today to the launch event of the latest knowledge product developed under the JCUB initiative, the seminar report listing state-owned enterprises in emerging and developing economies, lessons learned from 30 years of success, and of course, obviously, some failures as well. Given the impact that COVID-19 has had on many of the world's stock exchanges, the publication of this report seems very timely. Many governments are once again confronted with the decision on whether or not to divest their state-owned enterprises, a difficult decision, uh, indeed, uh, because of wide-ranging ramifications on economies and societies as a whole. Listings as one matters to divest SOEs are not an exception, and yet they differ from other divestment matters in many aspects, one being the development impact on local capital markets. But with what confidence can we really recommend SOE listings as the divestment solution to develop local capital markets in emerging and developing economies? What are indeed the conditions of success and which factors have to be put in place to ensure long-term development impact? These are only a few questions or many more. This report aims to help policymakers and practitioners to better understand SOE listings, the potential effects it could have on their local capital markets, and under which conditions they can be successful and impactful. The report also includes a summary of the most recent research on the impact of SOE listings on the broader economy. With the hope to be a true guide in policymakers' difficult decision on when and how to use listings as a tool to divest from SOEs. Like all governments, we fully appreciate the potential sensitivity surrounding this topic, but fully support the need for well-informed and robust debate based on academic literature, case studies, and experience, both positive and negative, and believe that this report will add constructively to the discussion. In closing and on behalf of the government of Luxembourg, I would also like to acknowledge and explicitly thank the various partners who came together to help produce and make this report possible, namely, the African Securities Exchange Association represented uh by their president, Dr. Ego Kosi Ain Munde. Jespercubien pronounce treon. And then all the Oliver Wyman, whose team has worked many hours on this report led by Michael Wagner, as well as the World Bank, in particular, Ms. Anika Nealli and Mr. Anderson Caputo Silva, who have been driving uh the driving force behind this report since day one. So my congratulations to the teams on the launch of the report and we look forward to seeing what this report and the wider knowledge management efforts of JCAP will help to realize in the coming years. Thanks a lot. Thank you very much, Arsen for this uh very important, uh, setting the scene discussion and, and, uh, as mentioned, uh also, uh, for the very strong support by, uh, Luxembourg to the whole GECAP initiative and in particular its knowledge work. So now I would like to welcome, um, uh, and equally extend a very sincere thank you to Doctor Eddo Kosi Aminunde. Uh, he is the CEO of the Burs Regional de Valor Mobierre and the current head of the African Securities Exchange Association, known as ASEA. I will try to pronounce that one well. Uh, Doctor Aminume, it is really an honor for me to celebrate with you today, uh, the launch of the SOE listing report. Uh, beyond this initiative, you are a longtime friend of Jacob, and there is a lot of work, um. At the moment with you and your team, and, and I hope that we can really engage in many more joint initiative to promote the development of Ou's regional capital market, in particular. So Mr. Amenume, the floor is yours. Mercy. Mercy, thank you very much. Dear Mr. Absent Jacobi, Director of Multilateral Affairs, Development and Compliance, Minister of Finance of Luxembourg, Dear Mr. Jean Penn, Director of the Finance Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice at World Bank, Dear colleagues, CEOs of African exchanges, Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very honored to be with you today. On behalf of the African Securities Exchanges Association, ASEA, I would like to welcome you at this virtual ceremony. Organized jointly by our association, N AFC to launch a report on listing state-owned enterprises in emerging and developing economies. First of all, I would like to warmly thank our partner IFC for this initiative and its permanent support to the development of capital markets on the continent through, through its various program, especially JACAB. On behalf of ASEAN members, I would like also to congratulate Oliver Wyman and his team for this excellent and informative report. The report aims to guide African governments to the right way as it sheds light on the success and failures of privatization programs around the world over 30 years. A key part of their strategy to strengthen their economic growth through capital allocation of public resources, many developed countries adopt more efficient policies in terms of management of their investment in companies on the long-term horizon. Privatization. is one of the ways to manage public investments, allowing government to withdraw from the capital of companies while achieving substantial capital gain and promoting the development of private sector champions and local retail investors. These strategies and policies should inspire African countries. From ASEA perspective, We have to fill the gap between our continent and the other region of the world. We have to create the conditions of successful IPOs of state-owned enterprises, and develop a large base of retail investors in our countries. In closing, I would like to assure all our partners that ASEAN will do everything. To make these reports an impactful tool for our continent. Our unwavering commitments to play a key role. In the long-term economy and social development of our continent is at the heart of our strategy. With the support of all, there is no doubt we'll be successful. Thank you for your attention. Thank you very much, Mr. Aminunde, and, and I would like to emphasize the last point that you made, uh, the importance of developing long-term finance and capital market in the African continent, which is obviously a very important priority for the World Bank Group and JCAP in particular. So I'm going to try to slow down how fast I speak because apparently I'm going a bit too fast. So I will now, uh, like to turn to Anika Erik, who is uh associate Financial Officer at the World Bank Group, and Michael Wagner, who is senior partner at Oliver Wyman. Uh, Anika and Michael have worked closely together for the past year to develop this report, uh, with the team, but they've been in the lead. So thank you very much to the two of you for this, uh, very hard work, and they will now present us with the main findings of the report. Anika, Michael, I look forward to your presentation. Thank you, John. Um, I will, uh, kick this off and then Anika will, uh, uh, take over from me. So, we will only be able to, um, present the highlights of the report. The report is fairly substantive. It's around 80 pages. So we don't have room for 80 pages, uh, uh, uh, worth of findings. But, I, you know, as I said, we will go through the, uh, through the highlights of the, of 30 years of successes and failure of listing state-owned enterprises in emerging. And developing economies. We've selected the economies, um, for, uh, you know, their, uh, listing activities, so it does have, um, uh, uh, 15, um, uh, emerging and developing economies that, that we looked at. Could we, I have the next slide, please. The question is, why do we, uh, really care about SOE listings? We believe that, uh, they play or can play a very important role at developing a capital market, uh, as we will see through the findings of the report, but also, um, SOE assets across emerging and developing economies represent about $45 trillion US dollars of unlisted, um, uh, assets today. And secondly, uh, development of, uh, African capital markets as measured by IPO and SPO activity, as we can see on the chart here, has slowed down over the recent years. So we believe it can be a strong, uh, foundation for, um, kickstarting, uh, the next potential wave of development of capital markets in Africa. But I have the next slide. The report, uh, focused, as I said, uh, uh, around, uh, emerging and developing economies. Uh, as I said, we selected, uh, 15 of those. The main questions the report is looking to address really is what has been the impact of SOE listings on the development of local capital markets. Second, um, what has the, what are the preconditions to list SOEs successfully. So here we are looking at what are the best methods of listing SOEs and what has been the results of, of doing so. And the third question, uh, was once listed, um, what have been the drivers to create a positive impact on capital markets development overall? So what have been the demonstration effects as, as we call them, uh, if any? Um, And as mentioned before, by, by, uh, uh, in the introduction, the report, um, um. You know, is to provide policymakers with a holistic view. That's why we included, uh, you know, the impact, uh, summary of, uh, of the impact on key economic variables such as firm performance, quality of public goods, and so forth. We are not attempting to do an in-depth study of, of these, but they are provided as important context for policymakers to, um, uh, base their, uh, their decisions around. Could I have the next slide, please? And, uh, the report has two sections. One is, uh, representing the main findings, uh, across, uh, the broader set of, uh, emerging and developing economies. And the second report, uh, focuses on lessons learned or, um, is, is there a business case for Africa? What can African economies do and what are the implications of the findings of the main report? Could I have the next slide, please? So, I will only, as I said, go through some, uh, some important highlights of the findings. Um, next slide, please. So first of all, um, we do find evidence that SOA listings can boost market capitalization, specifically in the early. Um, stages of capital market development. When we looked at a sample of economies with, uh, um, strong and regular listing activity, we found that, uh, the capital markets grew faster than economies that, uh, didn't have uh such activity or only, uh, listed, uh, as, as smaller, uh, smaller deals. Um, The, um, you know, as, as I said, in early, uh, stages of development, SOE listings can be very important simply because of the size of the, uh, of, uh, of SOEs and the impact on market capitalization, and therefore, uh, a market development. And we find where we strategically used and well planned, they can basically um kickstart but also sustain the development of capital markets. But in order to do so, uh, as we will discuss later, a program, a programmatic approach has been proven, uh, uh, the best. And I have the next slide. The demonstration effects, um, you know, that have been found in the empirical literature to be important and or to be significant in developed economies, we didn't find broadspread evidence for those. We did find, uh, in, in cases where, uh, In 4 countries, which, uh, which had, um, uh, you know, a, a strong demonstration effects, we found, uh, uh, key commonalities, which we list here. So, um, those countries were able to develop a large domestic institutional investor base. They had provided good foreign investor access. They had a listing pipeline. So, um, as I said, a programmatic approach to, uh, Uh, SOE listings and, um, uh, uh, outside SOEs, they also had a large economy with large private companies that could, uh, a list once SOEs have paved the way for capital markets development. But I have the next slide please. So, um, What are the, the, the drawbacks? So we found that uh the biggest risk really is related to an inadequate market infrastructure. We didn't find any pronounced negative effects, uh, of, of listings, but in many cases, listings didn't fulfill the the promises that they, uh, uh, set out to provide. And mainly, um, you know, as, as we said, because of inadequate. Market infrastructure, uh, which, uh, includes, uh, um, uh, exchange infrastructure, financial infrastructure as represented by brokerages, uh, or, um, a, a general, uh, accounting, uh, lack of accounting standards and oversight and enforcement, which are very important, uh, to guarantee the, um, uh, the value that, uh, that the listings, uh, represent. We did find that in small markets, uh, uh, GDRs and ADRs or that use GDRs and ADRs as an alternative, uh, we actually found that, um, if used prolifically, uh, there was an, uh, you know, the, the effect really was that the local markets didn't develop. It was more, uh, supporting. Uh, the, the development of, uh, foreign markets rather than the local market, uh, themselves. So, therefore, um, we found that the, the much better solution was to develop local markets and the, uh, uh, the supporting infrastructure and the, uh, the long-term investor base that is critical to support the market. But I have the next slide. Then, um, the liquidity impact, uh, actually for of SOEs, we found a, a very positive effect on the, uh, their own liquidity. So because SOEs are large, they represent a large, um, um, uh, uh, stakes or large capital. Uh, uh, as, uh, investments. Therefore, we found across the markets that you see listed here, uh, um, uh, and for, for the individual companies listed here, good liquidity over a sustained period of time. When we looked at, does it increase market liquidity overall, Uh, we only found this to be the case where the, uh, demonstration effects which we, uh, by which we mean, uh, listings of private, uh, companies, so, uh, follow-on listings of private companies, uh, uh, where that was the case, overall market liquidity also improved. In other cases, the spillover effect was, uh, limited, uh, or not evident. Next slide, please. And then, um, finally, we looked at, um, you know, can, uh, uh, what does it do to the investor base? What investors are important. So when we looked at, uh, uh, you know, again, at, at some of the largest IPOs that were very successful in the retail, uh, investors. So demo democratizing share ownership, definitely it was achieved in many cases. What we found, however, was if the incentive weren't set in the appropriate way, i.e., uh, incentivized, uh, retail investors for, uh, uh, short-term, uh, capital gains. Uh, uh, the, the impact was quite dramatic. So as soon as the IPOs, uh, happened, like, uh, you know, uh, retail investors, uh, sold their, their shares. Uh, similarly, we also found that for foreign investors, their participation, uh, can also be a double-edged sword if If you, if markets attracted speculative investors, rather than longer term, um, uh, foreign investors. So wherever speculative investment happened, uh, we found strong impacts on, uh, volatility with negative effects on, uh, specifically on retail investors, uh, because once retail investors had negative experiences, we found it took a long time to, uh, bring them back into the capital market. And I hand over to Annika. Thank you very much, Michael, and good morning, good afternoon to everyone. In the following, I would like to give you now a flavor of the summary analysis that looks at the impact of SOA listings on the broader economy. Overall, the summary analysis comprises of 5 key economic variables, and in the next slide, I will present you one of them, which is the impact of SOL listings on plant performance. When we looked at firm performance, we found that the impact of SOE listings varies greatly depending on several factors including the sector, the ownership, and the management structure, and to some extent, the strength of the market institutions. If you have a look, for example, on figure 9, you can see that across our case study countries, it has especially been the telecom sector, oil and gas, and financial services that have seen significant improvements in the operating earnings post listing. Those improvements have often been the result of restructuring, including sales of the controlling stakes to strategic investors before or shortly after the public offering. Which for us also highlights really the importance of changing the ownership and the management structure in order to see firm performance improvements. Good examples of those are, for example, Kenya Airways, SONATE, and BMCE or what is now known as Bank of Africa, all of which were sold to strategic investors in combination with being listed. Strong market institutions such as the exchanges, corporate governance or reporting standards can play in a supportive role as well. But what we found is that those effects usually tend to be significantly weaker than those that can be achieved by privatization. Having said that, there are some cases where governments shouldn't or simply don't want to privatize fully their SOEs. So in those cases, SOE listings can offer a second best solution because they can help governments to improve the transparency and the corporate governance of their SOEs and ultimately potentially also support firm performance. Next slide, please. I think to conclude what Mike and I just said, if it is fair to say that SUO listings can significantly boost capital markets development and provides certain benefits to the broader economy, but only under certain conditions. Next slide, please. Thus the two remaining questions are when should you list and what conditions do you need to have in place? And in order to answer that question, our report has looked at the preconditions for success and what we call the drivers of impact. When we talk about success, we really simply mean that the SOE listing has been absorbed and settled in the market and trades at a liquidity that is sufficient for, for investors to come in and out. That's it. On the other hand, when we talk about impact, we really talk about all the parameters that Michael just referred to, including, uh, market capitalization and also the breadth of the investor base, and we look at it from a short term, but also from a long-term perspective. Now, regarding the conditions of success, we actually found that there are relatively few, and there are 3 of them that you can see on the slide, I would like to highlight to you now. The first one is the need for institutional competence and competitive and transparent processes, which will be key to provide divesor and listing processes with sufficient credibility to attract reputable investors and also to ensure public support. The second condition is the strength of the capital markets infrastructure, which includes well capitalized brokers, a strong trading, clearing, and settlement infrastructure that can handle large volumes of transactions, and a well-staffed and independent regulator that can enforce good market conduct. Lastly, the third condition I would highlight is the choice of the SOE. Not every SOE can and should be listed. SOEs up for listing should have a certain size, and most importantly, they have to be profitable. Next slide, please. Finally, uh, concerning the, the drivers of impact, the list is significantly longer. We show you a few here, but for the sake of time, I only want to highlight two of them. The first one is the need for having a relatively large SUE listing pipeline, which Michael also referred to already. And it is really because single interventions almost never really create markets. To achieve market impact, you do need several SOEs that can be sold gradually over time for multiple listings, and it takes time and repetition for people to learn in the industry and also for an industry to develop overall. Second and lastly, I want to highlight the need for a large domestic institution investor base, because it is really that investor base, the pension funds and insurance companies that can absorb large proportions of the listing and provide a minimum level of price stability. That's what we have seen, it's really those countries that have uh had a big capital markets development effects from the SOA listings, they have had undertaken pension fund reforms before they have uh um sold a significant amount of the SOA listings on the local exchange. Thus, given those preconditions and drivers, I think the main point that I really want you to take away from this section is that successful and impactful SOE listings are usually integrated into a larger effort to reform the public sector. And within, within that reform agenda, listings may be one of the top objectives of a government, but they usually are one of the last steps for them to take. And on that note, I would like to thank you everyone for the attention and next slide, please, and urge you to visit our website and download the report and read it. Thank you very much. Over to you, Jean. Thank you very much Anika and Michael, and I saw someone ask where can we find the report, so we are going to circulate the link so that you can access it, uh, and, and please be assured that the presentation is just an appetizer on the report, which covers uh really much more ground. They focus on the key issues. And there is a lot of work and time being spent on this and, and very successful outcomes. So thank you very much Anika and Michael again uh for this work and the presentation, which I think sets the scene very well for our next phase of this morning, which is, uh, which is a panel discussion. Um, and I think, uh, your, your, the presentation of your key findings highlights that actually a couple of pretty difficult questions to look at, uh, when considering on how to, um, leverage the listing of SOEs for capital market development. So let me highlight three of them. Um, one, if listing can support the development of local capital market, but they have a less strong effect on firm performance, what role can they play in the current environment where many SOEs will need a restructuring? Uh, second, if domestic institutional investors are important, not only to increase the potential of creating demonstration effect but also to reduce risk of excess volatility in the stock market, what could the government do to make SOE listing more attractive to those domestic, uh, institutional investors? Third question, given that SOE listing requires all these precondition or pre-requirement in place, how closely should they be integrated in other reforms? So what's the sequencing and integration? What's, uh, how, uh, are there any second best solution where certain preconditions are met but not others, and how can we still, um, maximize the impact of SOEDity. So to help me answer some of these questions, I'm, I'm very happy to have, uh, 4 speakers on our panel today, all of them with a lot of experience with SOEDine coming from a very different perspective. So I'm going to quickly introduce the four of them. You have their full bios available on the website and, and the, uh, the background for this session, uh, and then that will leave us more time for the discussion. So let me start with uh Mrs. Martha Cellier, uh, she's the Special secretary to the Investment Partnership Program of the Ministry of Economy in Brazil. Then we will have Doctor Mohammed Farid, executive chairman of the Egypt Egyptian Stock Exchange, and he's also the chairman of the Federation of the EuroAsian Stock Exchange. Mr. Abel Sithol, who is the CEO of the Public Investment Corporation in South Africa, and finally, uh Mr. Nick Paget, who is the co-founder and managing director of Frontoa Capital. Um, and as, as we start the discussion, please do not hesitate to continue to share your question on the, on the chat. Uh, hopefully we'll have, uh, enough time at the end, uh, to come back on them and, and ask them, uh, to the panelists. So we will try to have two rounds of questions, uh, so I look forward to hearing from our panelists. Let's also make sure that we manage collectively time, uh, so that we have a bit of, uh, question and answer, uh, at the end. Mrs. Cellier, let me start with you. So, uh, as the Special secretary to the Ministry of Economy Investment Partnership Program, you are now supporting the implementation of Brazil's very ambitious privatization program. How does Brazil's past expense in SOE listing influence your current investment decision, uh, including of large SOEs such as Electrobras or the postal services chorios? What, how do you link together the past and the experience and what's happening today? Marta, the floor is yours. Thank you so much. Um, it's a pleasure to be here. I'd like to, um, congratulate first, um, this work, uh, of the, the World Bank together with uh Oliver Wyman, the government of Luxembourg. Um, it was very interesting reading the Paper and, and understanding that its main conclusions. As you know, Brazil is going through a large privatization program right now and we already have uh a history of important SOEs that have been uh divested or privatized in the past. So we can say Brazilian um capital market um is reaching, let's say maturity uh each time more enterprises are looking for, for capital market here in Brazil. Uh many reasons for that, I guess the past SOEs that have been privatized uh basically in the 90s. In Brazil have helped a lot to develop capital markets uh here in Brazil. You mentioned, uh, the demonstration effect and I guess somehow, uh it has uh been important here in Brazil as well to have SOE listings in the past, encouraging uh other SOEs and other, um, private enterprises to look For capital markets, uh, you know, in Brazil we have not only, uh, federal government SOEs but also SOEs at the state levels, so we see how one process can influence others in terms of decisions reaching, uh, capital markets. As an example, uh, we have the, uh, distribution of energy sector here in. Brazil, where um each time less SOEs are found, meaning that governors are looking for IPOs, are looking for privatizations to get the right investments, uh, to deliver the services to the population. Today we'll have another privatization of a distribution energy company, North Brazil in the state of Amapa. Uh, one of the last uh enterprises that are still public in this sector, uh, here in Brazil. So, um, this, uh, development of the, the capital markets in Brazil, uh, in my view is, um, natural since we have started in the past with great SOEs and And we've been changing also, also the role of our developing bank, the BNTS that before was very important um to acquire those shares and to make part of the absorption in capital markets and today, each timeless, each time the bank is helping more. Um, in financing infrastructure and other sectors and also helping us structure the privatizations with the feasibility analysis and all that needs to be done, uh, to move forward with this attraction of private investments agenda. Um, something we can see also, uh, that is interesting. Is that Brazil has reached um its lowest interest rate uh right now. So in 2020, we see uh the number of IPOs growing a lot even though we had a difficult year with uh coronavirus and, uh, we realized that when people get less, let's say safer income revenues from other portfolios because the investment rate is so low, then People naturally look for uh more um investment alternatives in capital markets. So we have reached a record in 2020, uh, compared to the years before. We didn't see the number of IPOs and the volumes we had in Sao Paulo Stock Exchange here in Brazil since maybe 2010 when we had a very important capitalization from Petrobras and from then on, uh, last year was the For sure, the, the most relevant year we had almost $25 billion capitalization uh in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange and we reached almost 3.5 million Brazilians, individuals that now are looking for this type of, um, uh, investment and one of the main reasons is, um, the low interest rate that we have right now in Brazil. Also the fact that I guess coronavirus had An interesting uh effect on enterprises looking for more financing, uh, not only public banks, each time less public banks and more capital markets to go through the crisis and also to invest in technology and other alternatives that were, uh, perceived as very important to go, uh, through the, the crisis. We also saw movement of, um, acquiring uh Competitors here in Brazil, uh, because of the crisis. And another thing you mentioned is, um, the listing pipeline, and that, that's where Brazil has a lot to present. Not only we have been through many divestments of SOEs and privatizations in the past, but we have a huge pipeline of very important enterprises such as Eletrobras that is a giant for energy generation and energy transmission. Here in Brazil, we have just approved, uh, this week the provisional measure in Congress that allows us to go forward with the capitalization of Eletrobras that will happen, uh, we hope in the beginning of next year, and, uh, we'll go through a model of capitalization where, uh, the federal government doesn't subscribe, uh, so we lose control of the company and also Um, uh, we, uh, guarantee that no, um, individual will have more than 10% of the company, so we're spreading, uh, the, this, um, um, voting power in the, the energy sector. We have the National Post, uh, that we're discussing in Congress right now also and structuring, uh, the privatization of the National Post here in Brazil. Uh, many enterprises from the transportation sector, ports, uh, railways, um, basic sanitation that we have approved just recently, a new law in Brazil to help privatization of SOEs at the state level and also concessions and PPPs. Telecom, the sectors, the, the list of sec sectors is huge and Brazil is moving very fast with an important pipeline of SOEs, divestments and privatizations. Thank you very much Martha for this overview and and lessons learned and you have quite a bit in the pipeline, so we may come back to that uh in some of the follow-up question. So let me now turn to uh to Mohammed Faried. So as, as the chairman of the Egyptian Stock Exchange and also of the Federation. But also as a former uh uh senior official in the Ministry of Investment, you may have seen good and less good in terms of SOE listing. So uh from your experience, what are the key benefit and risk of SOE listing for local capital market and how do you approach that in the Egyptian context? Mohamed, thank you. Thank you. Uh, well, uh, first of all, I would like to thank you, uh, to thank the World Bank, Oliver Wyman and definitely my colleague and friend Doctor Edo, uh, and his chairmanship for ASEA for this report. Uh, I believe it's a very timely and important report to take into consideration, uh, and to start, uh, I would say boosting in, uh, the SOE's listing again in that regard. But before Tackling your, uh, your question or trying to tackle your question, your difficult one, John, I would assume would be, uh, would be to thank Martha for the extensive introduction about Brazil. I think all of us now should think of closing their markets and go to Brazil and invest over there. So, uh, so thank you, Martha for this extensive, I would say, uh, promotion for, for the activities and reforms you have been taking place. Um. Uh, I, I believe we had two waves of SOEs listing in Egypt, uh, and both of them were coupled with broader, I would say macroeconomic reforms, uh, and this is one of the key lessons which is, uh, not the preconditions for listing of SOEs, but the context within which you are listing the state-owned enterprises in the market. The first wave, uh, in Egypt was in 1992, 1993, uh, with the reactivation, re-inauguration of the capital markets. Uh, plenty of listings took place through the market and here maybe we're going to discuss the type of listing itself because it made a difference in the long term regarding its performance. And all of this was coupled with an IMF backed uh reform to put the uh macroeconomic policy in place in terms of monetary policy and how you deal with your foreign exchange reserves and so on and so forth and your balance of payments imbalances and as well dealing with your fiscal imbalances that was present at that point in time. And during that period it was uh uh one of the golden eras uh whereby we have seen activity rising more than 1,000% in the market. Uh, we've seen investors participating, uh, institutional, individual investors and so on and so forth. And then we have, uh, I would say a hiccup, uh came uh to the market when we have seen the Asian crisis in 1998, in 1999. And this slowed down a little bit, the SOEs. One of the key pillars that maybe we can as well mention is to have a continuum of listings. I believe Arika mentioned to have multiple listings rather than one incident or one event. Because I believe one of the reforms that was with the aim of listing all or, or basically privatizing all state-owned enterprises in 1992 was to create a special ministry for all public sector companies, state-owned enterprises under one ministry. For the sake of portfolio management and active management and hence should it This ministry has done its proper role. If you ask my opinion, now it should have been vanished. It shouldn't have been present nowadays, but it is still present with some, I would say 9 to 10 holding companies underneath it with 150 something or 130 something companies. But of course we floated something more than this amount during the 1992 era, and then the Second era, uh, post, I would say the Asian crisis and the dot-com bubble, uh, in 2001, started in 2003. Uh, again, we have seen a rise in state-owned enterprises listing with three or four listings that were quite sizable, and the biggest one was Telecom Egypt at that point in time in 2000 and end of 2005. But again, this was coupled with a wider uh fiscal policy reforms, monetary policy reforms, and financial sector reforms, aggregation of companies increasing the capital, capitalization of financial institutions, insurance companies, and so on and so forth. And again we have seen at that point of time, uh, market capital to GDP exceeding the 100% mark, reaching to 120% if I'm not mistaken at. Points of time, daily trading uh was uh quite significant compared to the previous figures. And again, some crisis come and here is the point that, that, uh, that we need to focus on in 2008, uh, slowing down in listings, slowing down in follow-on listings because some of the companies that were listed in 2004, 2005, the aim was not To, uh, to, uh, to be satisfied with the 20 or 25% being listed on the market. The aim was to, to test the market with a 20% free float, but then to increase it to 40% and 50% and 60% as you move along, but this did not happen because of the, of course, the valuations uh post the financial crisis and maybe something and of course the Eurozone problems. But, and then maybe something pertinent to, uh, pertinent to Egypt which is the uh uh uh I would say instability that occurred in 2011, uh, the revolution and its aftermath and instability, whether on the political and economic front. What distinguishes, I would say, uh, the periods and the listings would be the type of listings. And I don't know if I should be stopping here or shall I continue, so you, you stop me, John, whenever you want me to stop talking. I'll, I'll stop talking in that regard. OK, you sit down one or two minutes so that we have enough time, but please finish your thought and then we'll turn to the colleagues. OK. Uh, so we have 3 to 4 conditions if we want to see a sustainable, I would say, impact for SOEs on the markets. Number 1 is are the preconditions, as you mentioned, or the macroeconomic conditions. You cannot work in and, and, and list. I would say companies in a period where, whereby you have a very slow down, uh, economic performance or a slow economic performance. People are not optimistic and so on and so forth. So having your macroeconomic, uh, uh, I would say picture in place is, is quite, it's quite very important. The second aspect would be the size of the IPO itself and its type. 11 of the key drivers for the full-on success of the, uh, uh, privatized companies was the size of the issue. We had two situations in 1994, 2 state-owned retail, uh, sorry, uh real estate developers. Uh, one has floated 75% of its ownership and the other one has floated the 20 or 25%. If we see those companies now, the difference is huge between the one that you floated 75% and the one that you floated 25% only. Uh, and hence this is a very important point. If we are really aiming to have a real, uh, I would say transformation of the real economy and a real impact on companies, we need to accept the fact, uh, that you need to go for very sizable listings, uh, a very significant free float in the market. And be happy with the incremental capital gains that you're going to benefit by having the company growing by, by, by, by multiples of its current size, given the proper management, proper governance, uh, and sufficient free flow that would allow institutional investors to come and participate without killing the secondary market trading in the market. In some other markets when you get to see this, even if they have, uh, I would say sizable IPOs, if your institutional base is dominant above the retail base, you kill secondary market trading. So the concept of, of, of, uh, I would say of the belief that retail trading is only a volatility, uh, a driver and is not beneficial. This is very wrong and it is, and it would kill the secondary market trading in the market and hence would not entice institutional investors to enter into this because they know they cannot go get out or in of this investment without proper secondary market trading. So it's a fine balance between what is the size for retail investors and what is the size for institutional investors. Um, as we have moving, uh, historically, uh, it was a big portion for retail investors. Nowadays it is more towards institutional investors and probably that's why we get to see liquidity, not as, uh, as, as it has been high, uh, as it used to be, uh, during the periods of earmarking significant IPOs or significant portion of the IPO to, um, retail investors. Talking about what we're doing now in, in, in very. Yeah, quickly, to conclude, sure, if you don't want me, I can, I can stop here and no, no, please, your, your word of conclusion. Uh, what is being happening now that we have something like, uh, more or less the same lines like Martha, Martha mentioned, uh, we have a pipeline of IPOs that has been announced by the Ministry of Finance, uh, privatizing state-owned enterprises. In different fields. But the challenge nowadays that the new, I would say millennia and new investors uh are not looking to traditional in uh investment types. They're looking more for the fintech uh approach but then comes the problem of valuations because the evaluation of these types of, of, of companies are not based on the tradition. Approaches of cash flow projections discounting it, it's a multiple and those multiples are quite uh different than, uh, than the, the, the, the, the normal multiples that we're looking at. However, we have a significant pipeline that we're pushing with the government start uh eagerly uh IPO in the market, in the insurance sector, in the fintech sector and payments. In the oil and gas as well sector and so on and so forth. So we have significant and in the, in the sports as well. So that, this is one of the new areas we were trying to privatize uh the sports, uh, the sports companies, especially football companies like El Ali and and Malik and so on, so that everyone can participate in a democratization of capital basically. Thank you very much, Mohamed, and thank you for the expense and, and also your passion in in sharing uh Egypt's experience. So let me, let me now turn to the other side of uh of the equation. And, uh, and to Abel uh Sithold, so you, you're the new CEO of uh South Africa Public Investment Corporation and you were a senior official also previously in the government employee pension fund. So you have a very good understanding of the risk return appetite, the investment strategy of pension fund, and we just discussed the balance between institutional investors and retail investors. So what do you think is the general risk appetite of domestic pension fund for SOE and privatized company and. What are the criteria that, uh, uh, according to which you will evaluate whether to invest or not in an SOE or a prioritized company? So what, what's the other side of the equation and how do you see things going forward? Aben, the floor is yours. Again, uh, just to start by, of course, uh, expressing the, the usual protocols of acknowledging and thanking, um, uh, the, the colleagues who worked on, on the reports. Uh, I've had the opportunity of reading, reading some of the, um, summaries, and it's been extremely useful and will continue to be useful, uh, into the future. So thanks for those who, of course, um, uh, have spent the time to do the, the hard work. Uh, and of course for the World Bank to making, uh, and, and IFC to making this platform, uh, possible and, and, and the colleagues who have joined the conversation. Um, I'm, of course, gonna speak from a South African context and, and, and ours is, is an environment that, um, uh, largely from a capital market point of view, is, is relatively mature. In, in, in that um we've had a, a stock exchange in South Africa going uh back to the 1887s when gold was first discovered and there was a lot of trading and that created a very strong and robust capital markets in the private sector. Um and when the conversation around listing state-owned enterprises um um happened in the 1990s, it happened in an environment where there was already a very um Uh, tried and tested, uh, tested capital markets, um, um, uh, in South Africa. So that, that's one in, and that has continued and has been the case, um, up to today that we do have a, a, a, a, a mature, um, um, uh, market in, in capital markets in the one side. Um, the, the, the, the, the topic of today, of course, is, is listing, uh, but, um, uh, state-owned enterprises have access and, and contribute to capital markets beyond just, um, uh, listing. So in, in, in, in the context of South Africa, most of our major state-owned enterprises might not be listed, but, uh, play a very significant role in capital markets. So if you look at, for instance, our Um, our telecommunications, uh, uh, company that was subsequently, uh, listed and you look at our uh power uh producer, Eskom, you look at our, uh, a logistics company, uh, Transnet. Um, they're not listed, so, so Telkom was listed, but the other two were not listed, but actually already play a significant role in the capital markets in the sense that, um, they actually don't have equity. That, um, uh, investors can participate in, but can actually participate, um, uh, in the bond markets because these institutions are significant, uh, bond issuers, uh, which are traded, um, uh, in, in, in the capital markets, uh, as well. So, so when we talk about the role that they can play, it's not only listing, there I think uh other mechanisms for them to play a role, but of course, we do have Uh, examples where, um, uh, uh, state-owned enterprise, enterprises themselves are actually list, listed. Uh, I indicated, um, the listing of, of Telkom as, as, as, as an indicator of uh such a listing. Uh, there had been before that, um, uh, other ones. For instance, um, the, the government used to own a uh steel mine, uh, an iron ore mining and steel producing, uh, uh, entity called ISCO, uh, which was then listed to create, um, uh, uh, and, and now, uh, an entity that is now known. As ArcelorMittal, um, uh, as an example of, uh, an earlier, um, listing of a state-owned enterprise. Um, uh, that has also spawned another entity which is the mining side of that entity which is Kumba Resources, which is a, uh, a significant, uh, player in, in, in our market. But the question says, what is the, uh, appetite of, um, uh, institutional investors, uh, especially pension funds. But the fortunate thing about South Africa is that um uh pension funds uh were created and became very active way back in the um early 50s. Um so the, the creation of pension funds created an, an, an, an, an institutional base that um had been um quite uh active and, and, and was um uh instrumental in making some of the listings quite successful uh um all along. There were other developments that actually contributed to the, the, the, the, that is the creation of other um uh investors like what, what in South Africa we call unit trust. I think they are ordinarily called mutual funds uh which uh aggregate the, the, the, the, the investments of smaller investors and then actually then uh invest them in capital markets so that it, it creates a platform for the smaller investor. investors to be able to actually uh play a role in capital markets and, and then provide the support over and above uh institutional pension funds like um uh pension funds. Now, the appetite is quite significant because they create a, a platform for matching the liabilities of pension funds. Uh, pension funds by their nature are long term. Uh, people start contributing in, in their twenties and are likely to, to, to, to start. That are, um, getting a benefit in their 60s and continue to get a benefit way to their 90s in, in, in most instances. And capital markets, especially of um the kind of um entities that state-owned enterprises are, which are long term in their nature, are very, very attractive and suitable for that ability to match the liabilities uh that are very, very long term in, in, in, in, in, in, in their nature. Uh, and, and in our experience in South Africa, that has, has always been the case going back to the 50s and continues to be the case now. Uh and it manifests itself, for instance, both in South Africa and I think globally, uh in the appetite for, for instance, for infrastructure, which ordinarily uh and historically has been uh provided by state-owned enterprises. And, and as, as they get privatized, uh, and then They they become listed, they continue to be an attractive um uh uh investment for institutional investors. Um, and, and of course, the, the, the, the part that is, is, is also quite significant is, is, is one that is listed to develop other um avenues uh for creating possible markets that are very attractive to investors, especially institutional ones. Um, you, you, you, you, you, you, you had The, the, the, the focus now on infrastructure, on commodities, uh, to look at, uh, derivatives as, as, as, as, as, as another uh development that actually again provides a different way of, uh, providing access uh to capital markets and then of course, uh, strengthening, uh, and enlarging the, the, the, the the capital market space, um, that, uh, investors can, can, can play in. And then the, the, the, the, the, the, the last point I want to make is, of course, that capital markets by and large, yes, depend on the institutional investors, but actually are quite inherently also linked to the economies of, of, of of, of, of countries in a sense that Um, if people have no money, they can't invest, uh, whatever it, it is. So, so the first thing is to have robust economies that make it possible for people to have, uh, excess income which needs to be put somewhere and, and, and markets then become the ideal environment, uh, to put that in. If they put it in banks which are also in, in, um, uh, in, uh, in the capital markets, that's another intermediation that makes it possible for, uh, smaller investors to participate in capital markets. So You, you need to look at the, the, the, the, the market infrastructure beyond just uh what's happening, for instance, in an exchange, but to say what other supporting infrastructure, financial supporting infrastructure is available um to support um the, the, the exchange because once those entities are listed, then you can find uh different participants or investors to actually make it possible for, for the, for the, for the, for the listing to actually to be successful. Um, our experience, of course, Has, has, has, has been very, um, uh, very good. I think the listings of, uh, of, of uh some of our state-owned enterprises has been very, very, uh, beneficial for us as investors and we'll continue to, to do so. And to the extent that, um, the, uh, state-owned enterprises are already playing in capital markets, especially on the bond side, um, that also has been, uh, a significant, uh, area of, uh, participation for pension funds to match the liabilities, uh, going forward. Um, I would like to stop there for now. Thank you very much Amed, very, very interesting, um, uh, experience and thank you very much for sharing. So let me now turn to uh Nick Paget, um, so you're the co-founder of Fronttal Capital, and, and in that context, you have invested in listed equity in over 60 countries in the world. So, um, do you think that SOE this thing is a lucrative business for foreign investors and what has been your general investment strategy when it comes to SOE and, and how can countries attract, um, capital investment like yours, um, when, when they want to balance with the domestic, um, capital base? Nick, the floor is yours. Nick you muted. Apologies. Yeah, you can hear me now, yes. Uh, I was just saying maybe a couple of words on Frontora because I think we're probably not a name that's familiar to the audience. So, as you said, we invest in, uh, frontier markets and small emerging markets globally. Uh, we were, we've been around since 2007. We've invested in nearly 60 countries, as you said, and we're presently in 23 countries. So, to give you an idea of what's in our portfolio today, uh, our largest countries would include places like the Philippines, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Vietnam, uh, the exchanges of some of our panelists, uh, Egypt, uh, Senegal, and Cote d'Ivoire from the BRVM. As well as like Rwanda, Turkey, Papua New Guinea, Nigeria, and a dozen others. Uh, we typically hold investments for around 3 to 5 years. It could be longer or shorter, it depends on pricing and, uh, and, uh, events. Uh, we have had our longest holding for for 13 years. Um, And our turnover is only 29% since inception. So we're definitely not hot money. We're long-term buy and hold investors. So now to your question, we look at every IPO on its merits. Uh, some deals are good and others are not. And that's true whether or not it's an SOE deal. So, with regard to SOE deals, I think there's three attributes that are most important to us. The first is pricing. Is the valuation attractive or not? We are very valuation sensitive. So even the best businesses in the world can be priced too high, and we would not buy it. Uh, we do not buy them if, if the price is not right. Uh, the second thing we would look at is ownership. Uh, the best SOE IPOs have had a strategic investor for the previous couple of years and the state ownership is already reduced to a minority stake. Uh, the report highlighted the case of Safaricom in Kenya, where Vodafone was the one in charge. And, uh, Safaricom is a great example of how to do things. And it's regarded as a tremendous success story. Uh, even though it took 4.5 years for the stock price to permanently move above its IPO price because of the global financial crisis, uh, today, this company is the most advanced mobile money offering in the world, and the stock is 8 times its Kenyan shilling listing price. And uh even in US dollars, it's up about 5-fold. Beyond valuation and ownership, the 3 attribute we look at is the business itself. How attractive is its competitive position, and its growth prospects. And it's fair to say that normally, again, we feel most comfortable if there's a strategic investor calling the shots. So let me make some general points now. Um, we've invested in SOEs where the state owned a majority and we've invested in SOEs where the state, state was below 50%. Overwhelmingly, our best experiences have been when the state is a minority investor. And that's true both in terms of money made and the qualitative interaction we've had with the company and our impression of the quality of the company. The report cited a couple of examples where the state was in control, but there was a dynamic leader that led the turnaround, you know, YPF in Argentina in the 90s was one example. Um And there's some others in the report. So, uh, this can happen, but all things equal, we'd rather have a strategic in charge, um, than a dynamic leader running a state-controlled ent entity. And that's for the simple reason that, uh, the state is eternal, but the leader is not. And the, when the state's in charge, the state can change the leader, and especially if you've got a dynamic change agent leader who may ruffle some feathers of politicians or special interests. And the postscript on YPF is that the state has reasserted its authority in the past decade for domestic political reasons and not to the benefit of shareholders. I was just looking at the stock chart last night and uh the stock traded at an all-time high of $69.20 in September of 2005. And even 10 years ago, it's still around $42. Yesterday, it closed at $5.22 even with oil back above $75 a barrel. No stock splits. Um, that's the data from Bloomberg. So, I, I, I take it as it's shown. Um, YPF, we knew better a few years ago when we were involved in Argentina. Um, we've not been involved and involved, uh, since the government turned populist again the last couple of years. Um, let me make, uh, I've got a few other points. Let me make one and then I, I can stop in the interest of time. Uh, we, we don't mind the state still owning a minority stake, as long as it shows it's a passive investor. Um, if it's a regulated business, uh, an ongoing state minority ownership position can actually provide some protection against bad regulatory interference. And it can also help when the company is a large taxpayer to the state treasury. That tends to prevent The state from enacting uh damaging legislation or regulation that's poorly thought out. Um, so, I'll turn it back to, uh, our moderator or I, I got a couple other points if, if it's your call, if you want me to keep going or stop here. Thanks a lot, Nick, and uh very useful and, and very practical. So thank you very much for being that, that candid and direct. So, um, we, I'm going to skip the second round of questions so that we can open uh uh to the question raised and, and Nick, we may come back to some of the points that you were beginning based on the question, um, um, there, um, and, um, so the first question which is interesting is the issue of the risk of concentration of ownership. Uh, explicit or implicit, um, I mean, um, it's a question from Jean-Pascal Gano, um, so it would be interesting, I think Martha, you alluded to that at the start on, on measures that may have been taken in Brazil, uh, to make sure that there is no, um, capture in practice by private investor or you have threshold on, on ownership. So can you explain a little bit what has been the expense of Brazil and the pros and cons, uh, of these approaches based on your expense? Sure, so for SOEs uh here in Brazil, um, we have to understand that different sectors, uh, are treated in different ways. So, uh, sometimes we're talking about a sector where, uh, before having a privatization, we need to have a concession, a contract, um. Um, talking about how, uh, service must be provided because we're still talking about some public services sometimes. So besides selling the company its shares, you have a contract, um, about how to deliver the services to the population. That's the case, for example, when you have the privateization of a port company. Uh, you'll, you'll still have the need to have a regulation, a regulatory agency looking at this, uh, investor, this private investor, uh, with, uh, investment obligations, levels of quality of services. Making sure that the port is, the port is open for all the enterprises and everyone that needs to enter this port. So we have many types of regulations, uh, sometimes inside the contract. And um that makes us not necessarily uh have requirements for the selling of uh the shares, but for the signing of the contract. So it all depends on the model that, that we're talking about. When we talk about Eletrobras for example that I mentioned, it's this uh giant energy company we have in here in Brazil that we just approved a law. Uh, so that we can move forward with the capitalization since it's so strategic because it's responsible for almost half of the energy that is generated in Brazil and more than half the transmission lines that we have here in Brazil. So it is very strategic and we didn't want one shareholder to be responsible for all the main decisions of this company. So Uh, we decided to move, uh, through a capitalization of, uh, this company. Uh, making sure that we have, uh, restrictive voting power, so, uh, no, no shareholder will have more than 10% of, of this company. So this was a, a decision for Eletrobras, for example, and then government will lose control of the company but still will, will remain with some relevant, um, share, uh, in the case of, um. Eletrobras. When we talk about the National Post, for example, it's a complete different thing. Uh, we have to make sure that the privatization process here in Brazil, uh, keeps delivering the services to the population all over the country. That is a very big country with different conditions. So it's not only about selling the company, it's not only about, um, thinking about making money out of the private sector. Not at all. The privatization here in Brazil of most companies that we have is aimed at bringing investments to the sector. So because Brazil has a fiscal situation, uh, that is difficult because public investments aren't happening. Uh, we need to bring more private investments to all those strategic sectors, and we believe that, uh, the privatization is the right way to make sure we bring the right amounts of investments, but that, uh, comes with a list of obligations most times, depending on the sector. So for the National Post, it's not only about selling the. Shares and everything that the company has today. It is about keeping the services to all the more than 5500 cities that we have here in Brazil. So we will have a contract together with this privatization process. Uh, we'll have a, a regulatory agency making sure that services will be delivered. So that's the, the, the most important thing when we talk about privatization of SOEs here in Brazil. It's that it's not only about finding Uh, the, the investors that have the right capacity of making investments because that's an issue as well. You have to understand, uh, what's the size of this IPO and, uh, who could participate, uh, with immediate capital contribution to the process, what's the size of the companies that will be able to participate, uh, will there, uh, be any need of, uh, valid. of the Brazilian government or the agency in the case of uh changing control after you have the, the IPO of the company, the privatization. What are the pre-qualification mechanisms in the case of a contract together uh with the privatization. So all this is, is very important and it, it depends a lot on what we're talking about, what sector, uh, we're moving forward with. Thank you very much Martha. Mahmed, can I turn to you also on that issue of concentration and what has been the experience and the response uh in um in Egypt, so I go to you and then I have a question to, after that to Nick and um Abel on, on protection of minority shareholders. To, to continue the point just opened by Nick before, so first, Mohammed on that issue of concentration, and then I will turn to Abel and Nick, uh, on, on somehow, uh, protecting against the right of the state, uh, as you put it, I think Nick earlier in the context of SOE district. Mohammed. OK, uh, I have two very quick comments before answering the issue of concentration, and I'll have to interfere with the protecting minority as well, unfortunately, so I'll have to cover the spectrum. Sorry about that, but uh I mean, it happens in all cases. As long as you do it sharply, we're fine. OK, um, uh, for the issue of sustainability and seeing the impact on capital markets long term. We cannot be waiting or we cannot wait for reforming the public pension schemes and the public pension funds. What we need to do is to have direct education and financial and investment literacy with the public to have direct investments. Now with the technological advancements, we need not to wait to have 1 million, 2 million, 30 million investors investing incrementally on a passive approach in capital markets, and this is the only way to create. Middle income class, by the way, the only way to create a middle income, proper middle income class in economies is to have incremental saving long term, 2025 years, doing it with very small amounts long term. We cannot wait. We cannot afford to wait to reform the public pension schemes. So that is one of the points that I wanted to mention before concentration risk. I believe is not an issue, uh, uh, and here you're talking about concentration, a risk of ownership, uh, uh, for the public. Yes, if I'm, if I'm not mistaken, for the public sector itself is not an issue, but it would depend on the sector. I believe, uh, uh, beautifully uh mentioned, uh, uh, here would, uh, would depend on the type of sector if it is a regulated sector or unregulated sector because regulated sectors would allow you not to have intervention. So, uh, so, so basically if we're talking about a level of governance that is being, uh, uh, disclosed, implemented in the country and the companies, you don't have this type of risk. On the contrary, you will be ensuring that you have a minimum level of voice, uh, by retail investors, by institutional investors, by minority investors in those companies, for example, like Uh, the, the incremental voting for having, uh, minorities in, on the board. So it is a mixture of both, let me put it that way. However, if we're talking about a sector that has no real undisclosed governance practices, OK, and regulations, then in that case it, it might be problematic at any one point of time as Nick mentioned that the state can be changing the, the rules of the game basically and you will have to abide by it. So. So, however, having this being companies that are listed makes it much more difficult as opposed to being unlisted securities. So basically investing through SOEs that are listed is much safer, not safer. I, I don't, I'm not, I'm not trying to say safer. It is, uh, you don't witness problematic issues with uh concentration of ownership as it is the case for unlisted securities when we come to that, uh, uh, to that area. For protecting minorities, you need to have very clear rules and to push with other entities, not only the World Bank. I believe one of the problems, and I'll be very as well honest here and, and, uh, and, uh, and frank, one of the problems with the World Bank and the IMF and the IFC and all of these entities, if you allow me, Anika, to to be, to be blunt here, is that with every single macro. Economic, uh, I would say policy reform and policy loan, you don't have clear cut reforms tackling capital markets. So it is always being considered as a private sector white collar, uh, thing that people need to do it their own. No, it's not the case. It is a complementary product to have, uh, uh, if you have a budget loan that is being provided. Or uh, uh, a project loan, you need to bundle it with proper capital market development and financial inclusion and, uh, financial literacy. Without having proper financial literacy starting from the age of 10 maximum, you will not be having new breed of investors that would understand the concepts of incremental saving and the importance of capital market. Thank you very much, Mohammed, and I'm, I'm sure that we look forward to continuing the discussion bilaterally with the Egypt authorities. Um, we started it, you may remember, 18 months ago, so very happy to continue. So let me turn to Abed and Nick. I'm going to start with Abed and that issue of, uh, uh, somehow the, the influence of the state, protection of minority shareholder. How do you see that as an investor and somehow what are the red lines, uh, that, that come, uh, from in your decision making? Uh, the protection of minorities, of course, starts even before you have a, a, a listing, an IPO. It starts with your, uh, your, your policy framework and your legal framework. So, so the, the, the, the, for instance, in, in our case, you, you, you, you, you talk about there is a company's um, uh, law that protects minorities, um, and extends to, um, uh, the listed environment so that, that's quite important that, um, that is there, um. Because minorities are not only in, in, in, in, in the distant environment, you have minorities in other aspects of uh the capital markets where there's a need to actually protect them. So you need to look at the overall uh policy and, uh, company, uh, legislation environment to, to protect minorities. In the listed environment, especially when you're listing, uh, state-owned enterprises, is to make sure that you have strong shareholder agreements, um, uh, designed specifically to protect minorities. And to limit the influence of um the principal uh seller, the shareholder who is government, who has more powers than just shareholding because as I think uh Nick made the point earlier to say, well, um, the government, of course, can always change the rules. So you need those protections to be encapsulated in, in the shareholders' agreement to protect, um, your, your, your, your, your, your, your, your minorities. Um, I just, I think I'll stop there and just, um, uh, grant Nick an opportunity to respond to the same. Thank you very much Eve including for being careful with time, Nick. Well, I think, you know, we, we, we look at everything on its own merits and you gotta look at the total package. Um, you know, I, I see in the question box, someone asked about the government wanting to, um, still keep voting majority through a golden share or something like that. And, um, you know, we wouldn't like something like that, but we just, we'd have to evaluate it. It, It's gonna all things equal, lower valuation. You know, maybe it lowers the valuation by 20 or 30%, you know, that's the trade-off the government has to consider or uh the SOE has to consider. You know, we would, that would certainly make it less likely for us to invest, but the lower valuation might make it more likely, and then you just, we look at it in totality. Um. As far as minority protections, you know, there's, without getting all the details, you know, the, the developed markets around the world have a pretty um well-established framework, be it the US or the UK of of various package of minority protections. So, the closer that a local exchange is toward those um global standards, the better, and the further away, you know, the worse and all things equal, that, again, is going to affect valuation. Uh, with regard to concessions, um, I think, uh, uh, What, where we've seen it go wrong is, I'll give a case like Umimi, um, the big power company in Uganda, which was privatized first with, uh, through private equity ownership and then listed. As a listing, it's not, the, the privatization overall has been a success, but as a listing, it's not made money for shareholders. And we've never invested in it because the government was constantly tinkering with what they wanted, um, Sort of the, the key concession terms or, or what, they didn't provide clarity on how they were gonna renew the terms, you know, where they're gonna seek a better deal. And we've seen that also in Pakistan with um independent power producers, which are not necessarily SOEs, but they, their customers and suppliers are the state. And to the extent they tinkered with the concession terms or didn't provide clarity on things, you know, that definitely has hurt valuation and the stock performance. So, we're always um The concessions make sense and, and, and terms need to be defined, but to the extent the state Manipulates them, you know, that makes the, the underlying investment, whether SOE or not, less attractive, uh, for someone like us. And we're always, you know, that's the kind of thing we look at. Again, each case is its own case. You've gotta consider carefully. Thank you very, oh sorry, I, I, I need to get you closer. Thank you very much Nick, including the fact that you look at the package and then there is a valuation, so there are trade-offs, I think there are trade-off on the state side, but as you mentioned, very strong trade-off also on the investment side. Um, so sorry we have to come to an end because it was really a, a fascinating discussion and, and, and panel. So, uh, big thanks, uh, to the four of you and also big thanks to everybody who's listening and sent a very interesting question through the chat. I'm sorry we cannot go through everything. I, I can, uh, only say that this is really the start of a discussion. Uh, the, the report is now available online, so please do not hesitate to go, read, download, um, and, and. And I hope that we'll have the opportunity to continue to have events around these issues, the report or more generally, uh, this kind of uh challenges. Very interesting also to have a different set of perspective uh from the panelists. Uh, big thanks to the authors of the report and the team who prepared it because that's a really important contribution to the development of uh local capital market. And let me conclude by thanking obviously, uh, Oliver Wineman, the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg, the African. Securities Association, it was really a pleasure to have all of you today and uh we very much look forward uh to continued work, continued dialogue, and to, um, support to the countries, uh, uh, making, uh, uh, progress in the development of local capital market, including through a so these things. So thank you very much everybody, a fascinating discussion, and we look forward to have you again, uh, in the future and have a great day everybody. Thank you, bye bye.
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2021_06_25 ECR SOE Listings and Capital Market Developments ENG
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Watch the replay of the virtual launch of the report "Listing State-Owned Enterprises in Emerging and Developing Economies." This report was developed in partnership with Oliver Wyman, the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg and the African Securities Exchanges Association (ASEA) and shares lessons learned from 30 years of success and failure.
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