TUNIS, May 14, 2025 – Tunisia's economy is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2025, up from 1.4 percent in 2024, supported by improved rainfall and gradual stabilization across key sectors. While manufacturing continues to face challenges, resilience in tourism and agriculture are contributing to the recovery, according to the World Bank's latest economic update for Tunisia, "Better connectivity to grow".
Growth is expected to stabilize around 1.6–1.7 percent in 2026–2027. Although global trade uncertainties and limited external financing could pose some challenges, stronger reform momentum and a moderation of global trade uncertainty may help improve the country’s medium-term outlook.
Inflation continued decelerating in early 2025, falling to 5.6 percent in April — the lowest level since 2021 and nearing pre-pandemic averages. Food inflation stands at 7.3 percent, driven by seasonal and supply-side pressures. In response to the easing trend, the Central Bank of Tunisia reduced its key interest rate to 7.5 percent, marking its first rate cut in over two years.
Tunisia’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2024, supported by improving terms of trade and resilient tourism receipts. At the same time, recent increases in energy imports and a slowdown in export volumes widened the trade deficit in the first quarter of 2025, posing some challenges to the external balance. On the fiscal front, the deficit declined to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2024, aided by contained public spending and stable subsidy levels.
The report includes a special focus chapter on Tunisia's trade connectivity, highlighting the significant economic potential of improving Tunisia’s port system. New World Bank estimates suggest that enhancing port connectivity and reducing dwell times could boost GDP by 4–5 percent within three to four years. Achieving the levels of port connectivity of regional peers through targeted infrastructure improvements could generate gains of 2.6–3.5 percent of GDP, while tackling institutional bottlenecks in customs and logistics could yield over one percent in additional gains.
"Tunisia continues to show resilience amid a complex global and domestic environment," said Alexandre Arrobbio, World Bank Country Manager for Tunisia. "Better connectivity, especially through improved port logistics, can be a powerful engine for job creation and economic growth."
In the longer term, positioning Tunisia as a trans-shipment hub could deliver even larger benefits of around 11–14 percent of GDP. The report recommends a mix of infrastructure upgrades — such as new terminals, equipment modernization, and port access improvements — and institutional reforms, including revised port tariffs, digital systems modernization, and enhanced railway-port connectivity.
