What happens to children's education when households face sudden economic shocks? This session draws on new evidence from Tajikistan to examine how economic shocks shape parental decisions around investing in their children's education — and what this means for policy and operations.

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Key messages

Positive shocks can widen gaps between girls and boys. A cotton price surge in Tajikistan was associated with a ~35% drop in girls’ education spending in affected areas, relative to boys—suggesting that growth opportunities may compete with schooling

Mechanism: opportunity cost + gender norms. The evidence is consistent with an increase in female labor demand during harvest (non-mechanized cotton picking) interacting with patrilocal norms (lower perceived returns to girls’ schooling), so that the labor-demand effect dominates the income effect for girls.

Institutions matter: land tenure drives impacts. The negative effect is concentrated on private/family farms (where households can directly allocate children’s labor) and does not appear on state/collective farms, underscoring how property rights and labor organization mediate gender impacts.

Who is most at risk: targeted vulnerability. Impacts are strongest for girls aged 12+, especially firstborn daughters and those in larger families—pointing to clear groups for policy targeting (rather than “one-size-fits-all” approaches).

Policy levers exist—but data constraints bind. Seasonal CCTs, school feeding during harvest, and information campaigns show promise; longer-term solutions include mechanization and tenure reform. However, limited longitudinal data and weak evaluation capacity constrain learning and scaling.