Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, issued on October 29, 2025.  Prices are forecast to drop by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty.

Falling energy prices are helping to ease global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices have helped make food more affordable in some developing countries. Despite the recent declines, however, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively, than in 2019.

At this online seminar, the authors of the report introduced the main points.  

Speakers:

Dana Vorisek
Lead Economist, Development Economics, World Bank 

Paolo Agnolucci
Senior Economist, Development Economics, World Bank 

Jeetendra Khadan
Senior Economist, Development Economics, World Bank 

Dawit Mekonnen
Senior Economist, Development Economics, World Bank 

Presentation Material

Commodity Markets Outlook: Recent Developments, Prospects and Risks (PDF)