The Togolese economy has shown signs of resilience in the face of a series of shocks since 2020 but budgetary margins have been exhausted and vulnerable populations have suffered from renewed inflation, which has slowed the pace of poverty reduction.
Against a difficult international backdrop, growth should hold steady at around 5.2% in 2023 and 2024, before strengthening to 5.8% in 2025, driven by a rebound in external demand and favorable conditions for private investment.
Togo's growth potential will be largely dictated by the pace of some key reforms. The baseline scenario for the next few years forecasts a stabilization of growth potential at 5.5%, but a more ambitious reform program could see a growth acceleration to 7% by 2030.
Trade openness and foreign investment mobilization are key factors in Togo's development, but both have weakened in recent years. The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the mobilization of funds to meet Togo's climate objectives are important opportunities to accelerate investment, growth, and job creation.
Strengthening inclusiveness and increasing the resilience of vulnerable populations are among the major challenges for the coming years. Strengthening economic opportunities and access to basic services for vulnerable populations will help to reduce the socio-economic disparities that prevent Togo from realizing its potential and are factors of fragility.