Gabon's economy grew by an estimated 2.9% in 2024, primarily driven by the oil sector and public works. Gabon’s strong commodity exports led to a trade surplus in 2024, but it remains highly dependent on a few products, with 97 percent of exports consisting in oil, manganese, and wood. While inflation declined, limited employment opportunities and modest growth have increased poverty, with over a third of Gabonese living in poverty, while unemployment is high at 20% of the workforce.
In 2024, lower oil revenues and increased public spending worsened Gabon's fiscal position, raising fiscal risks and highlighting the need to ensure fiscal sustainability. Despite stable public revenues thanks to tax digitalization, spending rose by 24%, notably on infrastructure and social measures. This reduced the fiscal balance to an estimated -3.7% of GDP in 2024, from a 1.8% surplus in 2023, causing an accumulation of payment arrears and an increase in public debt.
Gabon’s economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025-2027 but its outlook is vulnerable to strong global uncertainties like trade restrictions and fluctuating oil prices. Growth would be driven by wood, minerals, and agriculture. Political uncertainty should decline with a newly elected Government and return to constitutional order. However, strong reforms are needed to create more jobs and reduce poverty.
Spotlight: Measuring Gabon’s wealth and ensuring a sustainable and prosperous future
Gabon's national wealth reached USD 105 billion in 2020 (in real chained 2019 USD), having increased by 35% between 1995 and 2020. Gabon’s wealth is comprised mainly of natural capital (42%), followed by human capital (31%) and physical capital (27%). Between 2009 and 2016, supported by an oil boom, investments improved infrastructure and human capital, whereas vast oil reserves and sustainable forestry policies increased natural capital.
Evolution of Gabon’s national wealth (in real chained 2019 USD), 1995-2000
However, per capita wealth declined by 34.7% from 1995 to 2020, indicating challenges in converting natural resources into productive assets and human capital to support growth. Infrastructure gaps, governance challenges, and volatile investments based on oil cycles hindered growth, contributing to both negative per capita GDP growth and a decline in per capita wealth from 1995 to 2020.
Trends in real wealth per capita in Gabon (1995=100), 1995 - 2020
Cumulative GDP per capita growth vs. cumulative wealth per capita growth (%), 1995–2020
The value of Gabon's forest ecosystem services almost doubled between 2000 and 2020, to USD75.1 billion, with 99% coming from carbon retention services. Gabon’s forests are well-preserved, thanks to sustainable forestry and a highly urban, small population. Deforestation, at 0.03% per year, was low compared to most countries. Forests retained an equivalent of 29.8 billion tons of CO2 in 2020, but Gabon does not receive adequate compensation for these crucial services. Forests also provide important value for Gabon in the form of wood resources, bushmeat, wild plants, soil retention, and ecotourism.
Gabon needs urgent reforms to reverse the trend of declining per capita wealth. To make the most of its resources, governance and business climate reforms are key to promote wood, mineral and food processing, ecotourism and agriculture. Increasing spending on education, skills, and healthcare is vital, while aligning investments with fiscal space. Finally, estimating carbon retention values is a first step, but adequate global compensation is needed to enable Gabon to benefit from carbon retention services.