Nowcasting Economic Activity in North Macedonia

Background

Tracking economic activity in real time is a difficult task for forecasters given lags with data publication, recurring and/or large revisions to datasets, and a lack of high-frequency indicators. For North Macedonia, the first GDP estimates are typically available two months after the end of a quarter and are sometimes subject to further delays and subsequent revisions.

Even in the absence of official GDP estimates, domestic economic activity can still be assessed and monitored with the use of other economic indicators that are available on a more frequent basis.

In times of heightened uncertainty and prolonged economic instability that warrant rapid policy actions, such as the ongoing pandemic, nowcasting or real-time forecasting becomes ever more relevant. The materials below outline a methodology and model that may be used both as a nowcasting tool and also for constructing a monthly coincident economic indicator for North Macedonia.

Reports