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Recent Research
The Office of the Chief Economist brings together knowledge and expertise across major sectors of development. We seek to produce and feature papers that provides sustainable and innovative solutions for the development challenges, with a focus on South Asian countries and beyond.
2026
The AI Exposure of Export-Linked Jobs
Hagen Kruse and Shu Yu
A Quantitative Analysis of Multidimensional Changes in Unemployment Insurance Policies
Lei Fang, Jun Nie, and Zoe Xie
Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
Hagen Kruse, Gaaitzen de Vries, Emmanuel Buadi Mensah, Yabo Vidogbena, and Kei-Mu Yi
The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market
Eric Smith, Zoe Xie, and Lei Fang
Who Smooths the Shock? Government and Private Saving in International Risk Sharing
Giorgi Bokhua and Ergys Islamaj
Temptation, Self-Control, and the Design of Optimal Unemployment Insurance
Zoe Leiyu Xie and Pei Cheng Yu
Structural Change and Jobless Development
Franziska Ohnsorge, Richard Rogerson, and Zoe Xie
2025
Self-Employment Promotion as Active Labor Market Policy: Design and Trade-offs in Rigid Labor Markets
Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Rocio Madera, and Zoe Xie
The Occupation Content of TradeHagen Kruse, Marcel Timmer, Gaaitzen de Vries, and Xianjia Ye
Social Learning among Urban Manufacturing Firms: Energy-Efficient Motors in Bangladesh
Ritam Chaurey, Gaurav Nayyar, Siddharth Sharma, and Eric Verhoogen
Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in democratic and non-democratic emerging market and developing economiesFranziska Ohnsorge, Jakob de Haan, and Shu Yu
From Patriarchy to Policy: Norms, Votes, and Gender Equal LawsMaurizio Bussolo, Jonah Matthew Rexer, and Lynn Hu
Bridging the Gap: Revenue Mobilization in South AsiaHagen Kruse, Franziska Ohnsorge, Gabriel Tourek, and Zoe Leiyu Xie
Corruption as a Local Advantage: Evidence from the Indigenization of Nigerian OilJonah Rexer
Comparative Local and Multinational Advantages in the Global Mining IndustryJonah M. Rexer, Utsoree Das & Erik Katovich
2024
From financial development to informality: a causal link
Franziska Ohnsorge, Salvatore Capasso, and Shu Yu
Jobless DevelopmentFranziska Ohnsorge, Richard Rogerson, and Zoe Leiyu Xie
Household and Firm Exposure to Heat and Floods in South AsiaJonah Rexer, Patrick Behrer, Siddharth Sharma, and Margaret Triyana
The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing MarketZoe Xie, Eric Smith, and Lei Fang
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and “Connector” CountriesFranziska Ohnsorge and Shekhar Aiyar
What Explains Global InflationFranziska Ohnsorge, Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Hakan Yilmazkuday
Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Costly Self-ControlZoe Xie and Pei Cheng Yu
Education, Social Norms, and the Marriage Penalty: Evidence from South AsiaMaurizio Bussolo, Jonah Rexer, and Margaret Triyana
Social Norms and Gender Disparities with a Focus on Female Labor Force Participation in South AsiaMaurizio Bussolo, Jessy Amarachi Ezebuihe, Ana Maria Muñoz Boudet, Stavros Poupakis, Tasmia Rahman, and Nayantara Sarma
Evaluating the Impacts of Access to a Digital Jobs Platform and Skills Training on Female Domestic WorkersMaurizio Bussolo, S Anukriti, Jean Lee, Siddharth Sharma, and Anaise Williams
Climate Change Adaptation: What Does the Evidence Say?Jonah Rexer and Siddharth Sharma
Climate Shocks and the Poor: A Review of the LiteratureMargaret Triyana, Weicheng Jiang, Yurui Hu, and Md Shah Naoaj
Boosted income, busted environment: a tradeoff in the wider economic impacts of transport corridor investments?Siddharth Sharma, Martin Melecky, and Hari Subhash
2023
Election-Induced Fiscal Policy Cycles in Emerging Market and Developing EconomiesFranziska Ohnsorge, Jakob de Haan, and Shu Yu
Market Finance for Development: Taking stockXiao’ou Zhu, Dilip Ratha, Eung Ju Kim, Akhtar Mahmood, Sonia Plaza & William Shaw
A Quantitative Analysis of Multidimensional Changes in Unemployment Insurance PoliciesZoe Xie, Lei Fang & Jun Nie
One-stop source: A global database of inflationFranziska Ohnsorge, Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose
A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the PandemicFranziska Ohnsorge, M. Ayhan Kose & Naotaka Sugawara
A Manufacturing (Re)Naissance? Industrialization in the Developing WorldHagen Kruse, Emmanuel Mensah, Kunal Sen & Gaaitzen de Vries
Falling Long-Term Growth ProspectsFranziska Ohnsorge & M. Ayhan Kose
Long-term evolution of inequality of opportunity: Educated parents still matterMaurizio Bussolo, Daniele Checchi & Vito Peragine
The evolution of job tenure in transition economiesMaurizio Bussolo, Michael M. Lokshin, Nicolás Oviedo & Iván Torre
Political connections and firms: network dimensionsMaurizio Bussolo, Simon Commander & Stavros Poupakis
Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020Maurizio Bussolo, Damien Capelle, Michael M. Lokshin, Iván Torre & Hernan Winkler
Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough PatchFranziska Ohnsorge & M. Ayhan Kose
Potential Growth: A Global DatabaseFranziska Ohnsorge, Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose & Franz Ruch
Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and PoliciesFranziska Ohnsorge, Sinem Kilic Celik & M. Ayhan Kose
Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?Franziska Ohnsorge, Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose & Hakan Yilmazkuday
Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in emerging market and developing economiesFranziska Ohnsorge, Jakob De Haan & Shu Yu
Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model SuiteFranziska Ohnsorge, Francisco Arroyo-Marioli, Jeetendra Khadan & Takefumi Yamazaki
The Distributional Impact of Inflation in South Asia: An Empirical ApproachVanessa Olakemi Dovonou & Zoe Leiyu Xie
Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia?Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lazar Milivojevic & Victor Mylonas
Natural Disasters and Fiscal DroughtLazar Milivojevic
The links between COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and non-pharmaceutical interventionsMaurizio Bussolo, Nayantara Sarma & Iván Torre
How Selling Online Is Affecting Informal Firms in South AsiaMaurizio Bussolo, Akshay Dixit, Anne Golla, Ananya Kotia, Jean N. Lee, Prema Narasimhan & Siddharth Sharma
2022
The World Bank’s Harmonized Bilateral FDI Databases: Methodology, Trends, and Possible Use CasesXiao’ou Zhu, Victor Steenbergen, Yan Liu & Mauricio Pinzon Latorre
Social Norms and Gender EqualityMaurizio Bussolo, Jessy Amarachi Ezebuihe, Ana Maria Munoz Boudet, Stavros Poupakis, Tasmia Rahman & Nayantara Sarma
A Dynamic Model of Fiscal Decentralization and Public Debt AccumulationZoe Xie, Si Guo & Yun Pei
Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest ratesRobert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic
Trade Agreements in South Asia: Towards a Successful Story in the Developing WorldSebastian Franco Bedoya
2021
Politically connected firms and privileged access to credit: Evidence from Central and Eastern EuropeMaurizio Bussolo, Francesca de Nicola, Ugo Panizza & Richard Varghese
I Perceive Therefore I Demand: The Formation of Inequality Perceptions and Demand for RedistributionMaurizio Bussolo, Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Anna Giolbas & Iván Torre
Understanding FDI Spillovers in the Presence of GVCsValerie Mercer-Blackman, Wei Xiang & Fahad Khan
The Impact of United States Tax Policies on Sectoral Foreign Direct Investment to AsiaValerie Mercer-Blackman & Sheila Camingue
The Causal Effects of Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure on COVID-19 in IndiaTakahiro Yamada, Hiroyuki Yamada & Muthukumara Mani
Poverty and Migration in the Digital Age: Experimental Evidence on Mobile Banking in BangladeshJean N. Lee, Jonathan Morduch, Saravana Ravindran, Abu Shonchoy & Hassan Zaman
It takes two (to make things right): Women's Empowerment and Couple Concordance in South AsiaMaurizio Bussolo, Nayantara Sarma & Anaise Williams
Narrowing the gender gap in mobile bankingJean N.Lee, Jonathan Morduch, Saravana Ravindran & Abu S.Shonchoy
Workers at Risk: Panel Data Evidence on the COVID-19 Labor Market Crisis in IndiaMaurizio Bussolo, Ananya Kotia & Siddharth Sharma
2020
Feeling Poor, Feeling Rich, Or Feeling Middle-Class: An Empirical InvestigationMaurizio Bussolo, Mathilde Lebrand & Ivan Torre
Global Inequality in a more educated worldMaurizio Bussolo, Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte
The Drivers of Firms' Compliance to Environmental Regulations: The Case of IndiaSebastian Franco-Bedoya & Muthukumara Mani
Regional Integration in South Asia: Implications for Green Growth, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Gender Wage GapMuthukumara Mani, Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan & Deepika Wadhwa
Valuing Unpaid Care Work in BhutanValerie Mercer-Blackman, Jooyeoun Suh, Changa Dorji & Aimee Hampel-Milagrosa
Migration, externalities, and the diffusion of COVID-19 in South AsiaJean N.Lee, Mahreen Mahmud, Jonathan Morduch, Saravana Ravindran & Abu S.Shonchoy
Fiscal policy and economic activity in South AsiaRobert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic
Lights Out ? COVID-19 Containment Policies and Economic ActivityRobert C. M. Beyer, Tarun Jain & Sonalika Sinha
Examining the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India through Daily Electricity Consumption and Nighttime Light IntensityRobert C. M. Beyer, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya & Virgilio Galdo
2019
Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution: Evidence from EuropeMaurizio Bussolo, Carla Krolage, Mattia Makovec, Andreas Peichl, Marc Stöckli, Iván Torre & Christian Wittneben
Employment in South Asia: A New DatasetRobert C. M. Beyer, Milagros Chocce & Martin Rama
Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity in South AsiaRobert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic
Inflation Dynamics and Global Value ChainsSebastian Franco Bedoya & François de Soyres
2018
Toward a New Social Contract: Taking on Distributional Tensions in Europe and Central AsiaMaurizio Bussolo, María E. Dávalos, Vito Peragine & Ramya Sundaram
Paris Climate Agreement and the Global Economy: Winners and LosersMuthukumara Mani, Deepika Wadhwa, Zekarias Hussein & Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan
Does Job Polarization Explain the Rise in Earnings Inequality? Evidence from EuropeMaurizio Bussolo, Ivan Torre & Hernan Winkler
Wider Economic Benefits of Investments in Transport Corridors and the Role of Complementary PoliciesSiddharth Sharma, Martin Melecky & Hari Subhash
Measuring districts' monthly economic activity from outer spaceRobert C. M. Beyer, Esha Chhabra, Virgilio Galdo & Martin Rama