China quarterly update, June 2010

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China quarterly update, June 2010

Abstract

China's economy has continued to grow robustly, with some softening recently. So far in 2010, the slowdown in government-led investment (GLI) after last year's massive stimulus has partly been offset by strong real estate investment. Household consumption growth has held up well, reflecting a favorable labor market. Despite a rapid recovery of export volumes since the trough in early 2009, China's trade surplus has declined further due to surging import volumes and declining terms of trade. Inflation has picked up somewhat, but core inflation remains low. However, soaring property prices triggered tough property-specific measures. Leading indicators and industrial production data suggest some deceleration to a still rapid rate of growth. Despite concerns about fiscal risks in some high income countries, the global growth outlook remains favorable, in large part because of the strength in emerging markets. Nonetheless, risks around the global forecast are large. In China, after a rapid start to 2010, growth is likely to ease, mainly because of a partial normalization of the macro policy stance and the property measures. The external surplus should decline somewhat further this year. Inflation is likely to remain contained this year by the absence of price pressures globally while a wage-price spiral is not likely. Show Less

Details

Author	Bown, Chad P.; Cowley, Meredith A.;
Document Date	2010/06/01
Document Type	Newsletter
Report Number	55131
Volume No	1 of 1
Country	China
Doc Name	China quarterly update, June 2010
Keywords	accounting, accumulation of reserves, asset price, asset prices, balance sheets, bank credit, bank exposure, Bank Office, b... Show More accounting, accumulation of reserves, asset price, asset prices, balance sheets, bank credit, bank exposure, Bank Office, banking system, barriers to competition, benchmark, benchmark interest rate, borrowing costs, Broad money, budget deficit, budgeting, capital accumulation, capital controls, capital flows, capital formation, capital gains, capital inflows, capital stock, commodities, commodity, commodity prices, competitiveness, Consensus Forecasts, consumer confidence, Consumer price inflation, consumer spending, consumption growth, contingency plan, core inflation, corporate governance, credit expansion, currency, Current account balance, current account surplus, debt crisis, debt servicing, demographic, demographic changes, deposit, deposit rates, Deposits, developing countries, development strategy, disposable income, disposable incomes, dividend, dividend policy, domestic banks, domestic demand, domestic economy, domestic inflation, domestic liquidity, drag on growth, economic crisis, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, economic growth, economic outlook, ECONOMIC POLICIES, economies of scale, emerging markets, entry barriers, equity valuation, euro zone, exchange rate, exchange rate flexibility, expenditure, Expenditures, Export Growth, export volumes, exporters, exports, external demand, external trade, financial capital, financial crisis, financial flows, financial markets, financial risks, financial stability, financial sustainability, financing arrangements, fiscal capacity, fiscal consolidation, fiscal deficit, fiscal policies, Fiscal policy, food prices, Forecasts, foreign assets, foreign capital, Foreign exchange, foreign exchange market, Foreign exchange reserves, foreign reserves, foreign trade, GDP, GDP deflator, global banking, global demand, Global Economic Prospects, global economy, global trade, government debt, government deficits, government finance, government finances, government investment, government spending, host governments, human capital, import, import growth, import price, imports, inclusive processes, income, income growth, indexation, industrialization, Inflation, inflation expectations, infrastructure investment, insurance, interest rate adjustments, interest rates, inventory, investment bias, labor market, Leading indicators, liquidity, living standard, living standards, Loan, local economies, local finance, local government, local governments, low interest rates, M2, macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic risks, market conditions, market share, monetary expansion, monetary policy, money growth, monopolies, mortgage, mortgage interest, mortgage interest rate, mortgage interest rates, mortgages, national saving, natural resources, Net exports, new markets, oil commodities, oligopolies, open market, output, Output gap, outstanding loans, peg, pension, pension reform, pension system, pensions, policy responses, potential output, price competitiveness, price increases, price index, price movements, private investment, productivity growth, profit margins, property market, prudential regulation, public finance, public finances, public spending, rapid expansion, rapid growth, rate of growth, rates of return, real estate, real estate investment, real exchange rate, Real GDP, regulatory reforms, reserve, reserves, revenue assignments, risk premiums, Share prices, slowdown, social developments, social protection, solvency, sovereign debt, sovereign risk, spare capacity, Stock prices, tax, tax revenues, tax system, Total factor productivity, track record, trade balance, trade loss, trade surplus, trading, trading partners, Trading System, trough, types of instruments, uncertainties, uncertainty, unemployment, urban development, urbanization, volatility, wage growth, wages, weights, world economy, World prices, WTO Show Less
Language	English;
Major Sector	Public Administration, Law, and Justice; Finance;
Rel. Proj ID	CN-Macro-Fiscal Policy Notes - Fy10 -- P117568;
Region	East Asia and Pacific;
Rep Title	China quarterly update, June 2010
Sector	Sub-national government administration; General public administration sector; General finance sector;
Topics	Private Sector Development; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth; Finance and Financial Sector Development;
SubTopics	Emerging Markets; Economic Theory & Research; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Debt Markets; Banks & Banking Reform;
Unit Owning	DECRG: Trade & Intl. Integration (DECTI); Library & Archives ofDevelopment (ISGLA)
Source Citation	China quarterly update. -- (June 2010)

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