Conceptual Framework

The evaluation approach was guided by a conceptual framework modeling the main explicit channels through which Bank assistance can influence educational outcomes. Some examples of how Bank support (in the form of lending, policy dialogue, or analytic work) can impact educational outcomes include:

• strengthening government policy and institutional capacity,
• upgrading specific features of the educational system ( including facilities, books, teacher quality, teaching-learning processes),
• increasing demand for education, and
• improving the political economy in which educational improvement takes places; for example, by improving donor cooperation, facilitating civil service reform, and supporting complementary sectors and subsectors.

The framework presents a “results chain” through which Bank support is assumed to operate. As there are other factors influence educational outcomes (for example, family status and home environment), this cannot be considered a fully elaborated model.

Evaluation Methods:

The evaluation combined both literature reviews of existing research, an analysis of the Bank’s primary education project portfolio, and field-based studies of the primary education sector of a dozen developing countries.

Literature reviews

The following topics and publications were reviewed in-depth:

• The rationale for public investment in primary education in developing countries
• The determinants of learning outcomes in developing countries, including both supply- and demand-side factors
• The record of external assistance to primary education in developing countries.
• Education Sector documents (sector policy and strategy documents, Project Appraisal and Completion Reports, education sector retrospectives [annual reports], research and policy dialogue reports)
• Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluation reports on related subsectors (including adult literacy, secondary education, social funds, community-based development, and capacity building in Africa, and Annual Reviews of Development Effectiveness.

Portfolio review

The portfolio review included an analysis of the full portfolio of over 700 projects with any funding for primary education approved between fiscal 1963 and fiscal 2004, as well as an in-depth study using a stratified random sample of 50 projects from the full portfolio. The portfolio review analyzed:

• The magnitude and focus of IDA and IBRD lending for primary education, especially since 1990
• The regional distribution of lending coverage of low-income countries
• Evolution of lending project objectives, including how well Education Sector policy objectives were addressed
• Effectiveness of completed primary education projects, including both IEG ratings and, for projects in the sample, the evaluation team’s assessment of how well projects performed
• Project activities and monitoring arrangements for projects in the sample.

Country sector studies

The evaluation drew on field-based studies in 12 countries:

• Four country case studies were undertaken specifically as part of the primary education evaluation, focusing on the development effectiveness of the Bank’s assistance to primary education. The case study countries— Mali, Pakistan, Peru, and Romania—were purposively selected to represent a variety of regions, income levels, and educational performance levels.
• In addition, primary education projects in seven countries were evaluated by Project Performance Assessment Reports during the period that this primary education evaluation was under way: Honduras, India, Niger, the Republic of Yemen, Uganda, Uruguay, and Vietnam. IEG assesses one in four completed projects through PPARs. Projects are selected based on several criteria, including good potential for learning (because of particularly good or bad performance) and relevance to upcoming IEG sector or thematic evaluations.
• Finally, IEG completed an impact evaluation of World Bank support to basic education in Ghana during the primary education evaluation. The Ghana evaluation was based on a longitudinal study of achievement data from a household survey (1988 and 2001) and school surveys for both years in 85 districts.