Монгол Улс

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, ... Дэлгэрэнгүй + real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices. Багасгах -

The economic rebound in recent quarters has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising inflation, especially of those goods and serv... Дэлгэрэнгүй + ices which are in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of 17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in 2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to record levels (US$ 1.4 bn in September using 12-month rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers). Багасгах -

The assessments were carried out during the Mongolian Biodiversity Workshop from October 31st to November 4th 2005. The assessments revealed a number of trends affecting the mammals of Mongolia. Twent... Дэлгэрэнгүй + y-one Mongolian mammal species were identified as regionally threatened. Of these, the majority are represented by carnivores and ungulates (Artiodactyla and Perissiodactyla), which are predominantly threatened by overexploitation. These summary conservation action plans are intended to highlight species of particular concern and to alert policy-makers, conservationists, and government and planning authorities of actions that will help to ensure that all mammals of Mongolia maintain viable populations into the future. Detailed action plans are already in place for some of the species in this document; the summary conservation action plans for Mongolian mammals are not intended to replace these documents, but to accompany them, and further details are provided for action plans already available. Each summary conservation action plan presents information about the status of the species, the current known distribution, threats faced, conservation measures presently established, and recommended conservation measures. The future of Mongolia's mammalian biodiversity depends on the response of the Mongolian and global community to the plight of the species discussed in these summary conservation action plans. Багасгах -

Mongolia's prospects in the medium term look excellent from a growth perspective as well as a fiscal management perspective. Staying the course in the medium term means implementing the landmark Fisca... Дэлгэрэнгүй + l Stability Law (FSL) passed last year, and adopting a supportive integrated budget law this spring session of parliament. The economy grew 6.1 percent year-on-year (yoy) in 2010, following a contraction of 1.3 percent in 2009. The last quarter of 2010 ended with a broad-based recovery, supported by transportation, construction and wholesale and retail trade. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in March 2011 revealed no changes in the total number of casual workers compared to December. Mongolia has promising growth prospects. It has the opportunity now to exercise prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies so it can steer clear of the mistakes made by other resource rich economies and achieve its potential. Багасгах -

These summary conservation action plans are intended to highlight species that are of particular concern, and alert policy-makers, conservationists, and government and planning authorities of actions ... Дэлгэрэнгүй + that will help to ensure that all fishes of Mongolia maintain viable populations into the future. None of the species listed in this document have specific, detailed action plans in place, and the summary conservation action plans for Mongolian fishes are not intended to preclude the need for these detailed plans. Each summary conservation action plan presents information about the status of the species, the current known distribution, threats faced, conservation measures already established, and recommended further conservation measures. The future of Mongolia's aquatic biodiversity depends on the response of the Mongolian and global community to the plight of the species discussed in these summary conservation action plans. Багасгах -

The economy continues to recover with most sectors rebounding strongly from the sharp drop in output late 2008 and early 2009. Preliminary estimates suggest that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew... Дэлгэрэнгүй + by 6.1 percent year-on-year in 2010, following an outturn of minus 1.3 percent in 2009. However, winter arrived in Mongolia with the agriculture sector still feeling the impact from last year's dzud. The sector has now experienced double-digit contractions for the third quarter in a row. The exchange rate against the US dollar has been slowly appreciating back to the pre-crisis level. In December 2010, the average monthly exchange rate against the US$ appreciated by 3.0 percent, compared to the previous month, or 15 percent compared to December 2009. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in December 2010 revealed a reduction in number of casual workers by about 40 percent compared to September due to the seasonal closure of construction labor markets, and reduced outdoor sales activities due to cold weather. Mongolia has made significant progress in improving budget transparency, but there is still considerable room for improvement. Finally, although Mongolia's laws are easily accessible online and court processes are generally impartial and transparent, the predictability of court decisions is limited and the courts, enforcement and registration agencies are often perceived as corrupt by the public. Багасгах -

The global financial crisis of 2008-09 slowed down economic growth and severely affected Mongolian households. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 1.6 percent in 2009 after growth of 8.9 percen... Дэлгэрэнгүй + t in 2008. The crisis led to a temporary halt in progress in reducing poverty. The poor were the most strongly affected by this negative shock but benefited the least from the early recovery in 2010-11. While poverty appears to have started to decline again post-crisis, the analysis suggests that it has been accompanied by rising inequality. The economic recovery in 2010-2011, accompanied by increased job availability in formal and informal sectors, higher prices for livestock products, and increased social transfers led to improvements in the livelihoods of Mongolians. However, these improvements were rather uneven. The wealthier households reported buying durable goods, real estate and making productive investments in their businesses or livestock breeding. The poorest population could purchase slightly more food and clothing but could not afford durable goods or recover the productive assets they were previously forced to sell to finance consumption. While the economic rebound in Mongolia can be expected to be accompanied by renewed poverty reduction, asset depletion among the poor and the new poor, due to the double hit of the global financial crisis and the local dzud, raises concerns of rising income inequality over time. It will be important for policy makers to monitor these developments as they may have serious implications for development and poverty reduction policies in Mongolia. Багасгах -

Since the transition from a planned economy to a market-based democracy in the early 1990s, Mongolian higher education has experienced a marked expansion. Between 1992 and 2007, the number of tertiary... Дэлгэрэнгүй + education institution (TEIs) has increased more than four-fold and enrollment more than six-fold, with the gross enrollment ratio growing from 14 to 47 percent. This rapid growth has been fueled by the increased demand for higher skills in the labor market and has led to rising education premia. These trends, in turn, have stimulated increased household demand for tertiary education. In the early 1990s, the liberalization of the economy and the legalization of private higher education made it possible to increase the supply of tertiary education. However, this expansion in supply has been met with the charging of tuition fees in public universities and the growth of private institutions. As a result, public expenditure on higher education has been contained to about 14 percent of total expenditure, compared with over 20 percent in China. Although this policy has met the need for an increased supply of tertiary education, it has failed to produce graduates who can improve Mongolia's international competitiveness. The emerging problems are low-cost and low-quality education, a mismatch between the demand for and supply of skills, and inequitable opportunities of access between the urban and rural areas and between the rich and the poor. Багасгах -

The primary objective of the Southern Gobi Regional Environmental Assessment (REA) is to provide guidance for sustainable management of environmental resources in the future development of the Souther... Дэлгэрэнгүй + n Gobi Region (SGR), development that will be led by rapid expansion of mining. The REA defines two development scenarios-a base-case and a high case-and explores their direct and indirect impacts on the natural environment, taking into account the opportunities, constraints, and vulnerabilities of the Gobi natural systems; the individual and cumulative direct environmental impacts and potential indirect impacts of the planned development; and, at a general level, the institutional capacity to manage the impacts. The REA target audience includes government officials at central, regional, and local levels; private sector investors and the consultants who are engaged for project design and environmental impact assessment; development finance organizations; and Mongolian civil society. This report was discussed in draft form at stakeholder workshops held in Ulaanbaatar and Dalanzagdad in April 2009 and has been revised to reflect comments received. Thanks are due to all those who joined those discussions. The report draws on information from workshops held in Mongolia, in May, September, and October 2008, and a field mission to the Southern Gobi Region in November 2008. Other information was obtained from various mining companies in Mongolia including Ivanhoe mines Mongolia, Inc., and its consultant Eco Trade; Rio Tinto; Energy Resources LLC; and South Gobi Sands. Багасгах -

Mongolia was one of the East Asian economies hardest hit by the global downturn, as copper prices collapsed and external demand fell. With the recovery in economic activity currently well underway, bu... Дэлгэрэнгүй + t the policy challenges highlighted by the crisis yet to be fully addressed, this economic retrospective examines the key economic, financial, and policy developments from mid 2008 to April 2010. Collapsing mineral prices and a steep drop in external demand due to the global downturn of 2008 and 2009 were the external shocks which were transmitted to Mongolia's economy. This shock exposed underlying weaknesses in the economic structure and policy environment. More generally, now is the time to put in place a strong policy framework to manage the upcoming mining boom and avoid the mistakes of the past. The looming mining boom brings the risks of "Dutch disease" effects and a return to the profligate populism of the past. Measures to address these risks include the recently adopted fiscal stability law that will help the country move away from the fiscal boom and bust cycles of the past; improvements to the budget process and the planning and management of public investments in order to more efficiently absorb the large projected increases in revenues; and appropriate policy frameworks to support future infrastructure investment. Implementing a targeted poverty benefit should also ensure the poor are protected from mining boom and busts in a fiscally sustainable manner. Finally, continued reforms in the mining sector will enhance incentives for new exploration and environmentally and socially sustainable development. Багасгах -