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Assessing
World Bank Support for Trade 1987-2004:
An IEG Evaluation
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| Conceptual
Framework for the Evaluation |
Capturing
the overall development effectiveness of the Bank’s
trade work is difficult for three reasons:
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First, several country conditions influence
the effectiveness of trade reforms and assistance:
the country’s macroeconomic environment,
its endowments, non-trade factors in the investment
climate (notably institutions), governance
and political economy, and institutional capacity.
While the Bank may support countries in some
of these areas, it is important to attempt
to disentangle (a) the Bank’s actual
contribution and (b) the relative importance
of these other determinants. |
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Second,
a host of international external factors also
influence government attitude toward trade
reform and its ability to implement reforms;
especially relevant are commodity price shocks,
market access, and the country’s participation
in regional, bilateral, or multilateral trading
arrangements. |
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Third,
other actors such as the private sector, bilateral
and multilateral development agencies, and
nongovernmental organizations may influence
the pace and nature of reforms. These external
variables and the extent to which Bank support
and assistance takes them into account are
important determinants of the results achieved.
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The conceptual framework underpinning
the evaluation’s analysis is illustrated in
Figure A2.1.
It builds on a logical framework of the links between
Bank actions and outcomes and impacts.
The main apparent desired outcome of the Bank’s
support for trade is improved trade performance:
higher export volumes, faster export growth rates,
a more diversified basket of exports, cheaper and
more readily available imported inputs, and greater
integration in the global economy. The assumption
(often explicitly stated) is that expanded trade
will contribute to the Bank’s overarching
goal of poverty reduction in two ways—by contributing
to overall economic growth and by creating jobs—with
an overall beneficial impact.
The Bank’s approach to helping countries achieve
better trade performance has been to
use its budget, staff, and partnerships through
lending, economic and sector work, policy advice,
and technical assistance to clients, as well as
research and advocacy (inputs). The outcomes associated
with these inputs depend to some extent on the policies
and strategies followed by governments; they are
expected to improve the competitive environment
for exporters, reduce rent-seeking opportunities,
improve access to imported inputs, and strengthen
the institutional capacity of officials and institutions
dealing with trade-related issues. Through this
support, the Bank influences traderelated outputs—for
example, commitment by governments and the actual
trade reforms they introduce and improved customs
clearance times for exporters. These in turn are
expected to contribute to improved trade performance
outcomes.
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The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) is an independent unit within the World
Bank; it reports directly to the Bank's Board of Executive
Directors. The goals of IEG 's evaluations are to draw lessons
from Bank experience, and to provide an objective basis for
assessing the results of the Bank's work.
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