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New Books and Working PapersThe Macroeconomics and Growth Division regrets that it is unable to provide the publications listed. World Bank Publications To receive ordering and price information for World Bank publications, contact the World Bank, P.O. Box 960 Herndon, VA 20172, United States, tel.: 703-661-1580, fax: 703-661-1501, email: books@worldbank.org, Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/publications or visit the World Bank InfoShop in the United States, at 701 18th Street, NW, Washington, DC (tel: 202-458-5454). Technical Papers Gerhard Pohl, Simeon Djankov, and Robert E. Anderson, Restructuring Large Industrial Firms in Central and Eastern Europe: An Empirical Analysis, World Bank Technical Paper 332, 1996, 48 p. Discussion Papers Philip Musgrove, Public and Private Roles in Health: Theory and Financing Patterns, World Bank Discussion Paper 339, 1996, 94 p. Michael S. Borish, Wei Ding, and Michel Noël, On the Road to EU Accession: Financial Sector Development in Central Europe, World Bank Discussion Paper 345, 1996, 176 p. Other World Bank Publications Trends in Developing Economies 1996, 590 p. This seventh annual collection of profiles, text, and summary statistical tables describes the recent economic performance of 117 developing economies through December 1995. The country profiles summarize national development strategies and describe each country's economic features, current socioeconomic issues, recent political developments, and medium-term prospects. Policy Research Working Papers Lev M. Freinkman and Irina Starodubrovskaya, Restructuring of Enterprise Social Assets in Russia: Trends, Problems, Possible Solutions, Policy Research Working Paper 1635, August 1996, 38 p. Social spending by Russian enterprises represents as much as 20 percent of gross wage costs. What to do about social services that Russia's state enterprises have traditionally provided is a major issue in enterprise restructuring and public policy reform. If taxes and the provision of social services are rationalized at the time those social assets are divested, pioneering steps could be taken in restructuring the social sector. As enterprises are restructured, the public sector must become involved in: Protecting critical services, such as kindergarten,
that might otherwise disappear as enterprise funding is reduced. Hua Wang and David Wheeler, Pricing Industrial Pollution
in China: An Econometric Analysis of the Levy System, Policy Research Working Paper
1644, September 1996, 30 p. Alex Fleming, Lily Chu, and Marie-Renée Bakker, The
BalticsBanking Crises Observed, Policy Research Working Paper 1647, September
1996, 35 p. Cheryl W. Gray and Arnold Holle, Bank-Led Restructuring in Poland: An Empirical Look at the Bank Conciliation Process, Policy Research Working Paper 1650, September 1996, 39 p. Poland's enterprise and bank restructuring program, adopted
in 1993, halted the deterioration of the country's commercial banks, but its bank-led
workout process has done little to further the operational restructuring or privatization
of enterprises. Strong banks are needed to impose effective corporate governance. Cheryl W. Gray and Arnold Holle, Bank-Led Restructuring
in Poland: Bankruptcy and Its Alternatives, Policy Research Working Paper 1651,
September 1996, 38 p. Bernard Hoekman and Someon Djankov, Intra-Industry Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and the Reorientation of Eastern European Exports, Policy Research Working Paper 1652, September 1996, 29 p. The authors find a strong relationship between export performance and growth in vertical intraindustry trade with the EU. The Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia all rely heavily on the EU for inputsmore so than Austria, Portugal, and Spain, for example. As their per capita exports to the EU have also grown the fastest, this appears to be a characteristic of successful transition. Simple redirection of traditional exports from markets in the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) did not play an important role in the growth of exports to Western Europe. Instead, sale increase to EU countries consists of products not previously exported to the CMEA, or of traditional export items that have been substantially upgraded or differentiated. Inflows of foreign direct investment correlate highly with
levels of intraindustry trade. But if large investments in the automobile sector are
excluded, these investments seem unlikely to have been a major force driving the growth of
intraindustry trade. IFC Publications Laurence Carter, IFC's Experience in Promoting Emerging Market Investment Funds 1977-1995, IFC Lessons of Experience Paper no. 2, 1996. Yannis Karmokolias, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Private Sector Environmental Investments: A Case Study of the Kunda Cement Factory, IFC Discussion Paper 30, 1994, 42 p. Air pollution has earned Kunda the dubious distinction of the "Gray Town of Estonia." Social benefits exceed private costs by a margin wide enough to justify the environmental investment in terms of increased social welfare; beneficiaries range from the company and nearby residents and entrepreneurs to residents of neighboring countries. The findings can have a significant bearing on investment decisions, management operations, and government policy. * * * * * IMF Publications To order: IMF Publication Services, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, United States, tel. 202-623-7430, fax 202-623-7201. IMF Working Papers Anthony J. Richards, Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets: How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ? Working Paper 96/29. Brian Aitken, Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets? Working Paper 96/34. Joseph E. Gagnon, Paul R. Masson, and Warwick J. McKibbin, German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models? Working Paper 96/43, May 1996, 27 p. Atis R. Gosh, The Output-Inflation Nexus in Ukraine: Is There a Trade-Off? Working Paper 96/46, May 1996, 31 p. Ke-young Chu and Sanjeev Gupta, Social Protection in Transition Countries: Emerging Issues, Working Paper 96/50, May 1996, 27 p. The weakening financial and administrative capacity of transition economies affects the government's social protection programs. The formal sector is shrinking, and unemployment and underemployment are rising rapidly. The revenue base of social protection programs is shrinking, together with the ability of these countries to target social benefits. Therefore, social benefits have to be restructured, relying more on self-targeting mechanisms to deliver benefits, and immediate steps have to be taken to improve payroll tax compliance. Peter J. Quirk, Macroeconomic Implications of Money Laundering, Working Paper 96/66, June 1996, 33 p. Zuliu Hu and Mohsin S. Khan, Why Is China Growing So Fast? Working Paper 96/75, July 1996, 27 p. Thierry Pujol, The Role of Labor Market Rigidities during the Transition: Lessons from Poland, Working Paper 96/77, June 1996, 26 p. William Jack, The Efficiency of VAT Implementation: A Comparative Study of Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition, Working Paper 96/79, July 1996, 14 p. Natasha Koliadina, The Social Safety Net in Albania, Working Paper 96/96, August 1996, 55 p. Other IMF Publications Takatoshi Ito, David Folkerts-Landau, and others, International Capital Markets: Developments, Prospects, and Key Policy Issues, September 1996, 158 p. World Economic Outlook (Parts I and II), October, 1996, 193 p. and 103 p. The world economy's growth rate will accelerate gradually through the rest of the 1990s, reflecting a sharp rebound in activity in the transition economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But this upturn is vulnerable to setbacks in the reform process. The world economy is expected to grow 4.1 percent next year, with growth in the developing world falling slightly to 6.2 percent. Transition economies should be able to sustain growth rates of 4 to 5 percent a year in the long term, but major efforts are also needed to put their banking system on a sound footing; this is essential for the mobilization and effective allocation of domestic saving. OECD Publications To order: OECD Washington Center, 2001 L Street, N.W., Suite 650, Washington, D.C. 20036-4922, United States, tel. 800-456-6323, fax 202-785-0350, or in France, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, tel. 33-1-4910-4211, fax 33-1-4910-4276. Jean-Claude Berthélemy and Aris-tomène Varoudakis, Financial Development Policy and Growth, no. 41-96-09-1, October 1996, 130 p. The relationship between financial development and overall economic growth is reciprocal. By aligning these two factors, the authors identify four "convergence clubs," groups of economies that are heading for different growth regimes. Identifying into which category a country falls can help policymakers to devise the most beneficial policies. External Debt Statistics: Resource Flows, Debt Stock, and Debt Service Statistics 1984-1995, no. 43-96-09-3, August 1996, 215 p. Time series (going back to the mid-1980s) detail debt service and debt stock data for both major country groups and 135 individual countries and territories. Data on net resource flows to major country groups and separate debt tables for the successor states of the former Soviet Union, former Czechoslovakia, and the pre-1991 Yugoslavia are also included. Slovak Republic, 1995-1996, no. 10-96-33-1, September 1996, 164 p. OECD's periodic review of the Slovak economy. Quick economic growth of the Slovak Republic has astonished many analysts. It recorded one of the best macroeconomic performances among Central and East European countries. The country's gross domestic product grew 7.4 percent in 1995. The inflation rate, which stood at 25.1 percent at the end of 1993, was reduced to 6.1 percent by May 1996. State budget and current account balances recorded surpluses in 1995. The unemployment rate peaked at the beginning of 1995, at 15 percent, but fell to 11.9 percent by May 1996. The report focuses on the need to restructure the banking sector and privatized companies. It also deals extensively with the Slovak Republic's potential for expanding its tourist industry. The Changing Social Benefits in Russian Enterprises, no. 14-96-15-1, September 1996, 150 p. Centre for the Study of Public Policy To order: CSPP Publications, University of Strathclyde, Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond Street, Glasgow G1 1XH, Scotland, tel. 44-141-552-4400, fax 44-141-552-4711, Internet: http://www. strath.ac.uk:80/Departments/CSPP. John S. Earle and Richard Rose, Ownership Transformation, Economic Behavior, and Political Attitudes in Russia, Studies in Public Policy 269, 1996. James L. Gibson, Putting Up with Fellow Russians: Political Tolerance in the Fledgling Russian Democracy, Studies in Public Policy 275, 1996. Mary McIntosh and Dan Abele, Tolerance for a Multiethnic Bosnia-Herzegovina: Testing Alternative Theories, Studies in Public Policy 267, 1996. Richard Rose and William Mishler, Political Patience in Regime Transformation: A Comparative Analysis Of Post-Communist Citizens, Studies in Public Policy 274, 1996. Tacis Publications Belarus Economic Trends: Quarterly Update, June
1996, 49 p. Georgian Economic Trends: Monthly Statistical Updates
and Quarterly Reviews. Review of Economies in Transition Publications To order: Pave Palace, Bank of Finland Unit for Eastern European Economies, P.O. Box 160, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, tel. 35-89-183-2268, fax 35-89-183-2294, e-mail: pave.palace@ bonnet.f, Internet: http://www.bof.f/env/eng/it/iten.stm. Iikka Korhonen, Dollarization in Lithuania, September 1996, 7 p. Juhani Laurila and Inkeri Hirvensalo, Direct Investment from Finland to Eastern Europe: Results of the 1995 Bank of Finland Survey, September 1996, 40 p. Tatiana Popova and Merja Tekoniemi, Social Consequences of Economic Reform in Russia, September 1996, 26 p. Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS Publications To order: Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS, 39, Myasnitskaya Str., 103450 Moscow, Russia, tel. 7-095-207-46-51; 7-095-207-42-37, fax 7-095-207-45-92, e-mail: statpro @sovam.com. Commonwealth of Independent States, 1996: Statistical Portrait, 1996, 51 p. The CIS Countries in Figures, 1996, 275 p. Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Studies Publications To order: Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Study, H-1014 Budapest Szentharomsag utca 2, Budapest, Hungary, tel. 361-156-1244, fax 361-175-9539, e-mail: collegium.budapest@ colbud.hu. Jànos Kornai, The Citizen and the State: Reform of the Welfare System, Discussion Paper 32, August 1996, 22 p. Jànos Kornai, Adjustment without Recession: A Case Study of the Hungarian Stabilization, Discussion Paper 33, August 1996, 48 p. University of Leicester Publications To order: Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for European Economic Studies (CEES), Department of Economics, University of Leicester, LE1 7RH, United Kingdom, tel.0533-522-892, fax 0533- 522-908. Barbara M. Roberts, Transition in Poland and Shifts in Sectoral Composition of Demand, Discussion Papers in European Economic Studies 96/2, June 1996, 25 p. Joshy Easaw and Dean Garratt, Political Business Cycles within Integrated Economies: Possible Considerations for the EU, Discussion Paper 96/3, June 1996, 23 p. Rumen Dobrinsky, Mikolay Markov, and Stephen Pudney, Poverty and Social Security in Bulgaria during Transition, Discussion Paper 96/4, August 1996, 33 p. Frankfurt Institute for Transformation Studies Publications To order: FIT, Europa-Universitat Viadrina, Postfach 776, D-15207 Frankfurt, Germany. Erik Dietzenbacher and Hans-Jurgen Wagener, Prices in the Two Germanies, Discussion Paper 4/96, 1996, 23 p. Gunter Krause, Revisionism Debate in the GDR's Economic Science [in German], Discussion Paper 2/96, 1996, 35 p. Jan Winiecki, Foreign Investment in Eastern Europe: Expectations, Trends, Policies, Discussion Paper 3/96, 1996, 14 p. Other Publications Valentijn Bilsen and Jozef Konings, Job Creation, Job
Destruction, and Growth of Newly Established Private Firms in Transition Economies: Survey
Evidence from Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania, Discussion Papers on Economic
Transformation: Policy, Institutions, and Structure 59, Leuven Institute for Central and
East European Studies, 1996, 36 p. Anthony T. H. Chin and Ng Hock Guan, Economic Management
and Transition Towards A Market Economy: An Asian Perspective, World Scientific
Publishing Co., 1996, 500 p. Martin Grundmann, ed., Transformation and Arms Conversion in the Baltic Sea Region and in Russia, Kieler Schriften zur Frieden-swissenschaft, Germany, 1996, 230 p. A significant part of the transformation process, arms
conversion is a multidimensional problem. It includes all aspects of the military
industrial complexrange, quality and cost of production, organizational structure,
finance, personnel policy, and sectoral and intersectoral relationships. The book
discusses macrostructures and microconditions of arms conversion and presents research
results from Central and Eastern European countries and various industrial branches. John P. Hardt, Jean F. Boone, Stephen B. Heintz, and Aaron Presnall, Parliamentary Responsibility for Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe, CSCE, Congressional Research Service, U.S. Library of Congress, Washington D.C., July 1996, 234 p. Popularly elected legislatures of the region provide a crucial link between the administrative organs of the state and the population. Their roleestablishing the legal and regulatory frameworks for economic activity, deciding budget allocations, and providing effective mechanisms for administrative oversightis therefore critical. Through legislation and oversight, parliaments influence and even determine the conditions for economic development. Their actions also have a critical impact on the investment environmentpromoting legal standards, sound budgets, tax codes, and privatization programs. More broadly, the parliament serves as a representative institution. The support for parliaments in transition provided by U.S. Congress and implemented by the Congressional Research Service included: Establishing a modern technical information system,
also making available and effectively using the global Internet system. Dennis Rondinelli and Max Iacono, Policies and Institutions for Managing Privatization: International Experience, International Labor Office, Geneva, 1996, 184 p. Experience suggests that privatization is neither a panacea
for all government's ills nor sufficient to ensure economic progress. The advantages of
privatization can be maximized when government ensures a competitive environment, has
adequate procedures for promoting cost reduction and service quality, strongly supports
small and medium-scale enterprise development and state enterprise restructuring, and
performs an effective regulatory role to minimize corruption and inequity. Ultimately,
privatization is most likely to succeed in a vibrant and vigorous market economy, which
governments have an important role in creating, supporting, and sustaining. M. Holt Ruffin, Joan McCarter, and Richard Upjohn, The Post-Soviet Handbook: A Guide to Grassroots Organizations and Internet Resources in the Newly Independent States, Center for Civil Society International, United States, 1996, 393 p. Since 1991 dynamic new organizations were created in the former Soviet Union by public-spirited citizens ready to make their institutions more humane, their economies more productive, their environments cleaner, and their legal systems more just. The enormous variety of these grassroots initiatives spread from the Research Center for Human Rights in Moscow to the Red Crescent Society in Azerbaijan and the Wildlife Foundation in Khabarovsk. The Handbook provides contact information for hundreds of
independent associations and describes their principal programs and activities. A special
section introduces Internet resources related to the newly independent states, from
electronic mailing lists to World Wide Web and Gopher sites, as well as utilities for
moving from Latin characters to Cyrillic and vice versa. Contact information for more than
twenty clearinghouse organizations, as well as descriptions of more than 150 projects in
the newly independent states, created by U.S.-based entities, ranging from cultural
exchanges to financial sector reforms and housing development, are also part of the
volume. Kurt Schuler, Should Developing Countries Have Central Banks? Institute of Economic Affairs, 1996, 126 p. Central banking, though now widespread, is a relatively recent phenomenon, especially in developing countries. Rivals to central banking include currency boards, monetary institutes, free banking, and "dollarization." Most economists and policymakers believe that every independent country should have its own central bank, so it can conduct an independent monetary policy. Currency quality (such as inflation rates and periods of high inflation and exchange rates) for 155 countries are analyzed to provide performance indicators. The results show that central banking in developing
countries has performed worse than other monetary systems and worse than central banking
in industrial countries. Some developing countries have recently established currency
boards; others should follow their example. Privatization in the Economies in Transition,
European Center for Peace and Development, May 1996. George Soros, "Can Europe Work? A Plan to Rescue the Union," Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 5, September-October 1996, 7 p. The economy is too important to leave to central bankers. With exchange rates permanently fixed and monetary policy under the European central bank's control, national governments will have few policy instruments at their disposal. If they follow diverging fiscal policies, the monetary union could be endangered by individual governments' pursuit of irresponsible courses. That is why Maastricht set limits on government debt. But if those limits are fixed in advance and forever, governments have no room for maneuvering. Economies need to be managed, and economies tied together by a common currency also need a common fiscal policy. The Maastricht Treaty sidestepped that issue by fixing only the entry requirements. If the governments involved cannot take concerted steps now to combat unemployment, however, it is doubtful they will be able to do so later. In that case, it may be better not to have a common currency at all. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe desperately need to get closer to the European Union. Although communism is dead, the institutions and attitudes of an open society are not yet firmly established. Negotiations on the admission of new members will probably start in earnest in 1999. Further enlargement will render the intergovernmental process completely unworkable. The bureaucratic method of building an integrated Europe has exhausted its potential. The Intergovernmental Conference should convene a Constitutional Assembly, but it would not be empowered to appropriate further slices of national sovereignty without first obtaining the approval of each of the member countries. Only a bold measure, clarifying the nature and identity of the European Union can stop the gradual disintegration of Europe and prevent a return to the conditions prevailing between the world wars. Arieh A. Ullmann and Alfred Lewis, eds., Privatization
and Entrepreneurship: The Managerial Challenge in Central and Eastern Europe,
International Business Press, Fall 1996, 400 p. Eira Varis, The Restructuring of Peripheral Villages in
Northwestern Russia, UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research
(UNU/WIDER), 1996, 37 p. Financing Your Business in Eastern Europe, no. FN-11, 1996. Sourcing Manufactured Products in China: The Who's Who
of China's Best Export Manufacturers, CS-11, 1996. Heloidoro Temprano, The Improvement in the External Position of Central and Eastern European Countries, European Economy, Supplement A, no. 2, 1996, European Commission. The balance of payments of most Central and Eastern European countries experienced a notable improvement in 1994; exports grew strongly and current account deficits shrank in a majority of countries. In 1995 the deficit increased again, although the aggregate current account deficit of the region remains, in terms of GDP, significantly below its 1993 peak. Projections for 1996-97 point toward a renewed decline in the deficit to about its 1994 level. Three countries (the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic,
and Poland) have obtained investment grade marks from the major international rating
agencies. The region's foreign debt-GDP ratio has fallen by one-third between end-1990 and
mid-1995, but the ratio remains relatively high for the region as a whole. Useful Web Sites Collection of Hungarian Economic Laws (in English) Meta database, derived from several Hungarian
data bases Public Management Newsletter, from SIGMA/OECD
(Support for Improvement in Government and Management in Central and Eastern European
Countries), a joint initiative of the OECD/CCET and the European Union PHARE Program.
Current issue (vol. 2, no. 1, 1996) includes: "Czech Republic Tackles Local Budget
Reform;" "Controlling Personnel Costs;" "Bureaucratic Burdens on
Private Enterprise in a Transitional Economy." News in Brief from the International Research and
Exchanges Board, vol. 7, no. 4, July-August 1996 issue, featuring "Albanian Law
in the Making: An Interview with Ilir Zherka," p. 3. |
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