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Russia Needs a Competitive Banking Sector Most large Russian banks that survived the devaluation and banking crisis of August 1998 appear to have returned to profitability. Top-tier Russian banks can now offer clients a broader range of products than just cash management services, but only a fearless few have begun to engage in market-driven deposit taking and corporate and consumer lending. Less than 40 percent of Russian banks’ loan portfolios consist of credits extended for a year or more. Bank lending remains tied to the structures of Russia’s financial-industrial groups, with intragroup credits accounting for an estimated 43 percent of total credit, and the government or leading domestic companies continue to run the largest banks. The new leadership of the central bank is ready to implement changes. Russian banks are not making significant loans to companies, which must finance investment from their own profits. Russia’s banks account for only about 3 percent of overall investment and suffer from a shortage of reliable clients. Loans are too expensive for all but the biggest enterprises, and lending represents only 40 percent of bank assets. Russian banks are inefficient and operating expenses are high. Despite much talk about capital flight out of Russia, much of that money never leaves the country: at least $30 billion in savings—and probably much more—is kept in U.S. dollars "under mattresses." This tough criticism of Russian banking was delivered by none other than Petr Aven, the head of Alfa Bank, one of Russia’s largest commercial banks. The largest retail-commercial bank is Sberbank, majority shares of which are controlled by the central bank. Sberbank, with thousands of branches nationwide, used to be the only savings bank during the Soviet era and still holds 73 percent of all deposits. Alfa Bank comes second as a retail bank, but holds a mere 2 percent of all bank deposits. The top 10 Russian commercial banks, ranked according to their capital strength as of July 2002 are as follows: 1. Sberbank, 2. Vneshtorg (Foreign Trade) Bank, 3. International Industrial Bank, 4. Alfa Bank, 5. Gazprombank, 6.Globexbank, 7. Rosbank, 8. MDM Bank, 9. Ural-Siberian Bank, and 10. Petrocommerce Bank. What Is Wrong with the Banks? Aven recently spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. As he pointed out, the money on deposit with banks represents only 7 percent of GDP, which is quite low compared with the Czech Republic and Germany, where the figure is closer to 50 percent. Aven noted that starting in 2004 all Russian banks will have to use Western accounting standards and capital adequacy requirements. Aven urged that strict accounting standards be implemented as soon as possible, federal deposit insurance be extended to all banks (currently only Sberbank enjoys such a guarantee), the myriad small banks whose only operations are cash transactions be consolidated into more sophisticated financial institutions, and the central bank’s bureaucracy be downsized from its current level of 95,000 people. He also warned that without an acceleration of reforms Russia will have difficulty competing for investment with other countries. To date Russia has attracted about $22.4 billion in cumulative foreign direct investment, which comes to about $150 per capita, compared with more than $2,000 per capita for countries like the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Hungary. In addition, since 1994 capital flight has amounted to $114 billion, or almost $800 per capita. The overdue reform of the Russian banking system was discussed during the U.S.-Russia Business Council meeting in Washington in October. Foreign Secretary Colin Powell urged the council’s Russian partners to act: "To attract and keep capital invested in Russia, the Russian government must press forward with banking and financial reforms. The banking dialogue between the United States and Russian private and governmental financial sectors has helped put the most important reforms on the Russia agenda. And now it’s time to take those reforms and put them in practice." Powell was referring to a 10-page report entitled "Joint Banking Strategy" prepared early this year by the Russian-American Business Dialogue, which comprises business organizations and individual experts from the two countries. The document contains 27 recommendations, including rationalizing the state regulatory system, guaranteeing creditors’ rights, strengthening antitrust legislation, and revoking the special privileges and subsidies granted to a select few banking and financial institutions at the expense of others. The document proposes that the Russian government should sell its stakes in the banking sector, cut excessive red tape, get rid of Soviet-era accounting practices, and eliminate contradictory legislation. Almost a year ago, in an article the Russia Journal, Christof Rühl, chief economist of the World Bank’s Russia Country Office, gave a similar diagnosis of the Russian banking sector: "With combined assets of little more than 12 percent of Deutsche Bank, Russia’s banking sector is very small. It is highly concentrated, with very few banks holding the bulk of all deposits and dominating lending and with many banks too small to engage in lending or deposit taking. On top of this top-heavy sector sit the state banks which, as critics point out, enjoy unfair competitive advantages. It is the primary task of financial intermediation to match those who need resources with those who have funds to save." In Russia, most export revenues and savings are accumulated by a few large companies selling natural resources—primarily oil, gas, and metals—with seven companies controlling most of the export revenues. These companies use about a third of their savings to finance fixed capital investment. About 10 percent is what is officially invested abroad. More than half of the savings go into domestic financial assets, almost entirely into short-term bank deposits at banks owned by the investing enterprises. Thus these savings will not be used for lending to other companies. Only 8 percent of all enterprise investment in the first half of last year went into long-term financial assets that would enable the recipients to on-lend it for the long term. Smaller businesses or would-be entrepreneurs are unable to borrow longer term even though these companies have proved immensely valuable in other countries, where they became the prime driving force of growth. Glimmers of Hope There are some encouraging signs, however: in 2002 Russia’s banking sector regained its precrisis levels of capital and assets and substantially exceeded them relative to GDP. In addition, the banks’ reliance on funds attracted from households continues to grow. According to the central bank the banking sector has now more or less made up the ground lost as a result of the financial collapse of August-September 1998 as follows: · As of April 1 total bank assets were 6.8 percent higher than on July 1, 1998, in real terms. During this time the ratio of bank assets to GDP rose from 30.1 to 35.3 percent.· Bank capital, which fell to one-quarter of its precrisis level after the collapse, stood 14.7 percent above its July 1998 level at the end of the first quarter of this year (in inflation-adjusted terms) and was equivalent to 5.1 percent of GDP, as opposed to 4.6 percent in July 1998. At 14.6 percent the sector’s aggregate capital to assets ratio was still below its July 1998 level of 15.2 percent, but is rising rapidly.· At 13.5 percent loans outstanding to the real sector were up 47.1 percent in real terms and up five percentage points as a share of GDP.· As of April 1 corporate deposits were 48.3 percent above their precrisis levels in real terms, while retail deposits were still 3.5 percent below their July 1998 levels. Retail deposits accounted for 73.3 percent of the deposits held by Russian banks. Their recovery has been constrained by two factors: the slower recovery in real disposable incomes and the need to rebuild popular trust in the banking system. Lending to households more than doubled (up 112 percent), while credits to Russian companies rose by 56 percent. However, the growth of retail lending was from a very low base: roughly 93 percent of outstanding bank loans are to corporate borrowers and only around 7 percent are to households.· Foreign assets now exceed foreign liabilities. Russian banks are now net creditors of the external sector.· The banks are much larger net creditors of the real sector than they were: their net claims on the nonfinancial private sector at the end of the first quarter stood at 7.6 percent of GDP, up from 4.4 percent in January 1998. They also remain net creditors of the state, albeit to a greatly reduced extent (3.2 percent of GDP compared with 6.7 percent during the precrisis boom in government debt).· Households are the major sector lending to the banks: the excess of household claims on banks over banks’ claims on households now stands at 7.4 percent of GDP. As the importance of the retail sector as a source of funds is set to increase, introducing deposit insurance and other reforms becomes all the more important.Reform at the Gates Responding to the calls for urgent reform, the new management of the central bank under the leadership of President Sergei Ignatiev (Viktor Gerashenko resigned earlier this year) is considering a number of important new measures to complement the introduction of International Accounting Standards and a deposit insurance scheme. These include the following: · Shifting to a more effective monitoring system instead of depending on formal compliance with regulatory norms to oversee banks’ compliance with capital adequacy and disclosure requirements.· Reducing barriers to competition and market-driven restructuring. This includes simplified central bank approval procedures for opening new branches, engaging in new activities, or undertaking mergers and acquisitions. The ability of regional and local authorities to interfere in banking markets will be constrained. In addition, simplified procedures for handling small credits will reduce overheads on retail banking and on lending to small and medium businesses.· Improving creditor protection arrangements and freeing up collateral for lenders more easily and cheaply if loans are not repaid.· Improving transparency and the circulation of information about banks and their services.Based on reports of Oxford Analytica, the UK-based international research group; various news agency reports; and presentation by Petr Aven, president of Alfa Bank, Moscow, at the Carnegie Endowment, in June. URL: http://www.ceip.org/files/events/events.asp?EventID-493. |
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