World Bank Publications

Working Papers

Romain Wacziarg, Measuring the Dynamic Gains from Trade, WPS 2001, November 1998, 52 p.

Empirical analysis confirms that trade openness has a strong positive impact on economic growth, leading to accelerated accumulation of physical capital, enhanced technological transmissions, and improvements in the quality of macroeconomic policy. The author uses data from a panel of 57 countries from 1970–89.

To order: Sarah Crow, Room MC4-706, tel. 202-473-0763, fax 202-522-2578, Email: scrow@worldbank.org.

Anwar Shah, Fiscal Federalism and Macroeconomic Governance: For Better or For Worse? WPS 2005, November 1998, 46 p.

To order: Silvana Valle, Room G6-079, tel. 202-458-4493, fax 202-522-3124, Email: svalle@worldbank.org.

Jesko Hentschel and Peter Lanjouw, Household Welfare Measurement and the Pricing of Basic Services, WPS 2006, November 1998, 23 p.

To order: PREM Advisory Service, Room MC4-501, tel. 202-458-7736, fax 202-522-1135, Email: premadvisory@world bank.org.

Peter Lanjouw, Branko Milanovic, and Stefano Paternostro, Poverty and the Economic Transition: How Do Changes in Economies of Scale Affect Poverty Rates for Different Households? WPS 2009, November 1998, 35 p.

Much attention has been paid to the relative vulnerability of two well-defined household groups during the transition. Some observers argue that old-age pensioner households have been relatively protected because of a less steep decline in real pensions compared with wages in most transition economies. By contrast, households with young children are believed to have experienced a substantial decline in living standards under reform and show strikingly higher rates of measured poverty than pensioner households.

But others argue that the elderly have suffered more than the young during the transition. Can these conflicting viewpoints about the relative poverty of old and young households be arbitrated? The authors show that strong—though implicit—assumptions underpin certain poverty comparisons. Notably, using a per capita measure of individual welfare assumes that there are no economies of scale in household consumption, in the sense that the per capita cost of reaching a specific level of welfare does not fall as household size increases. Relaxing that assumption could affect comparisons, showing higher poverty rates among the elderly because their households tend to be smaller than the households containing children.

Even the nature of transition has implications for economies of scale. The relative cost of housing and other goods and services with at least some public good characteristics has risen rapidly. These relative price shifts hit small households particularly hard because a greater share of their expenditures goes to public and quasi-public goods. But, transition economies have also experienced big increases in the relative prices of goods and services consumed largely by children, such as kindergarten and other education services. These increases thus affect younger households more.

Since there is no accepted way to establish the true extent of economies of scale in a given country, the question cannot be answered exactly. But clearly a small departure from a per capita measure may be enough in some cases to overturn the conventional relative ranking of poverty headcounts; poverty among the elderly may then turn out to be worse than among children.

To order: Patricia Sader, Room MC3-632, tel. 202-473-3902, fax 202-522-1153, Email: psader@worldbank.org.

Samuel Talley, Marcelo M.Giugale, and Rossana Polastri, Capital Inflow Reversals, Banking Stability, and Prudential Regulation in Central and Eastern Europe, WPS 2023, 1998.

To order: Michael Geller, Room H-11-105, tel. 202-458-5155, Email: mgeller @worldbank.org.

Cevdet Denizer, Raj M. Desai, and Nikolay Gueorguiev, The Political Economy of Financial Repression in Transition Economies, WPS 2030, 1998.

To order: Tseday Hailu, Room F-3P-198, tel. 202-458-5586, Email: thailu@world bank.org.

Discussion Papers

Harry G. Broadman (ed.), Russian Enterprise Reform: Policies to Further the Transition, no. 400, 1998, 159 p.

To enhance and sustain economic prosperity, Russian authorities must improve the business climate so that firms restructure and the private sector thrives within a market environment. Meeting this challenge requires actions on several fronts. The Russian government asked the World Bank to write policy papers to address this issue. This volume contains those policy papers, which were then presented at a high-level workshop in Moscow. The topics include removing impediments to robust interfirm competition, such as structural concentration, arbitrary regulatory practices, and entry barriers; strengthening corporate governance incentive systems; enhancing the nascent institutional framework for the exercise of creditor rights and implementation of enterprise bankruptcy procedures; reducing barter and other nonmonetary forms of business transactions; and fostering enterprise restructuring. The volume also contains formal comments on these papers, presented by senior Russian officials at the workshop.

Harry G. Broadman (ed.), Russian Trade Policy Reform for World Trade Organization Accession, no. 401, 1998, 95 p.

Russia has manifested considerable interest in accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This volume contains four policy papers that focus on the most prominent topics during the ongoing WTO accession process: the dispersion of Russia’s tariff structure, trade and investment in the service sectors, the treatment of state trading enterprises, and the policy regime governing foreign direct investment. Bringing Russia into the rules-based WTO system is an objective broadly shared by the world community. As part of the process of making liberalization commitments, as required by the existing members of the WTO, accession provides an opportunity to lock in reforms.

Other World Bank Publications

Zuzana Feachem, Martin Hensher, and Laura Rose (eds.), Implementing Health Sector Reform in Central Asia, Papers from the Economic Development Institute (EDI) Health Policy Seminar in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, June 1996. World Bank EDI Learning Resources Series, 1998, 162 p.

Eduard Bos, Vivian Hon, Akiko Maeda, Gnanaraj Chellaraj, Alexander Preker, Health, Nutrition, and Population Indicators: A Statistical Handbook, 1998, 88 p. The book is based on the latest compilation of information about levels and trends in health status, health determinants, health systems, and health finance. It also contains a data source summary, a list of definitions, and statistical tables, with data presented by country, region, and income group.

Assessing Development Effectiveness: Evaluation in the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, 1998, 79 p. This publication will appeal to anyone interested in the operations of the World Bank Group.

Global Commodity Markets, a quarterly.

Beginning in January 1999, Global Commodity Markets will provide readers with greatly enhanced and more timely information on 46 primary commodities, together with analytical special features, regional price indices, information on transportation costs, and a macroeconomic overview. Global Commodity Markets will be published four times a year (January, April, July, and October). Each issue will be available in print and electronic form.

Shobhana Sosale (ed.), Educational Publishing in Global Perspective: Capacity Building and Trends, 1998, 240 p.

Over the past three years the World Bank has lent approximately $550 million for textbook components within education projects. This volume is based on the proceedings of a seminar titled "Understanding the Educational Book Industry," organized by the World Bank in 1997 in Washington, D.C. It deals with such issues as policies for the provision of educational materials; growth of the publishing industry in developing countries; procurement, protection, and copyright; and longer-term solutions.

Ali Hashim and Bill Allan, Information Systems for Government Fiscal Management, Sector Studies Series, December 1998, 46 p.

Ismail Serageldin and Joan Martin-Brown (eds.), Partnerships for Global Ecosystem Management: Science, Economics, and Law, Proceedings and Reference Readings from the Fifth Annual World Bank Conference on Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development, 1998, 280 p.

Doing Better Business through Effective Public Consultation and Disclosure: A Good Practice Manual, IFC- Environment Division, November 1998, 75 p.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, represents the world’s largest multilateral source of debt and equity financing of private sector projects in developing countries. IFC recognizes that the private sector operates under certain constraints, which at times make public consultation and disclosure particularly sensitive and complex. The manual is based on practical experience from current IFC activities and from other examples of international good practice for public involvement and consultation in private sector projects. It is tailored to assist companies working in developing and emerging economies.

Pollution Prevention and Abatement Handbook 1998: Toward Cleaner Production, The World Bank Group in collaboration with UNIDO and UN Environment Program, 1998, 550 p.

The application of the guidelines set out in this book can minimize the use of resources as well as reduce the quantity of wastes requiring treatment and disposal. The guidelines are designed to protect human health, reduce discharge of pollutants into the environment, use commercially proven and cost-effective technologies, follow regulatory trends, and promote good industrial practices. These guidelines represent good environmental management practices, which can be achieved and maintained with the levels of skills and resources typically available in countries in which the World Bank operates.

Barbara Nunberg, The State after Communism: Administrative Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe, 1998, 286 p.

Following the heady days when communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were crumbling one after another, international support was mobilized to help guide the region’s journey toward the free market. As experience with the economic reform agenda began to accumulate, the centrality of the state’s role in helping to formulate and implement reform grew increasingly evident. This publication aims to present an accurate, empirical picture of recent trends in CEE administration. It focuses on the three priority items on CEE countries’ administrative agendas: restructuring the machinery of government, reforming government pay and employment practice, and developing a politically neutral, professionalized civil service.

Joanna Ledgerwood, Microfinance Handbook: An Institutional and Financial Perspective, December 1998, 302 p.

Microfinance is not simply banking; it is a development tool. It has been estimated that there are 500 million economically active poor people in the world operating microenterprises and small businesses. Most of these people do not have access to adequate financial services. The purpose of this handbook is to bring together in a single source guiding principles and tools that will promote sustainable microfinance and create viable institutions. The handbook takes a global perspective, drawing on lessons learned from the experiences of micro-finance practitioners, donors, and others throughout the world.

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1998/99—Beyond Financial Crisis, 9th Edition, 1998, 150 p. (See Agenda, page 28.)

IMF Publications

To order: IMF Publication Services, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, United States, tel. 202-623-7430, fax 202-623-7201, Email:publications @imf.org, Internet:http://www.imf.org.

Chong-Huey Wong and Luis Carranza, Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies—Further Empirical Results, WP 98/103, July 1998.

High capital mobility could cause instability in current accounts. Therefore, macroeconomic policy, if it wants to restore external balance, must deal directly with capital inflows. Nominal exchange rates should be made sufficiently flexible to avoid inconsistencies between short-run and long-run real exchange rates; credit tightening should be complemented by fiscal restraint to reduce interest rate differentials; and surveillance of the financial system should be strengthened to prevent banks from excessive risk-taking.

A. Lopez-Claros and S. Alexashenko, Fiscal Policy: Issues during the Transition in Russia, Occasional Paper no. 155, 1998, 58 p.

Malcom Knight (ed.), Central Bank Reforms in the Baltics, Russia, and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, Occasional Paper no. 157, 1998, 62 p.

G. Cottarelli, T. Krueger, and others, Hungary: Economic Policies for Sustainable Growth, Occasional Paper no. 159, 1998, 99 p.

Julian Berengaut (ed.) and others, The Baltic Countries: From Economic Stabilization to EU Accession, Occasional Paper no. 173, 1998, 78 p.

Bundesinstitut für Ostwissenschaftliche und Internationale Studien Publications

To order: Bundesinstitut für Ostwissen-schaftliche und Internationale Studien, Lindenbornstr. 22, D-50823 Köln, tel. 0221-5747-0, fax 0221-5747-110, Internet: http://www.uni-koeln.de/extern/biost.

Michail Ksenofontov, Langzeitprognose der Sozioökonomischen Entwicklung der Russländischen Föderation, August 1998, 35 p.

Anatoliy S. Grytsenko, Ukrainian Army: A Starting Point for the Next Wave of Reforms, no. 30, 1998, 26 p.

Gwendolyn Sasse, Die Krimt Regionale Autonomie in der Ukraine, no. 31, 1998, 39 p.

Bernhard Lageman, Die Osterweiterung der EU: Testfall für die "Strukturreife" der Beitrittskandidaten, no. 38, 1998, 41 p.

Wolf Oschlies, Makedonien im Som-mer 1998, Politisch-ökonomische Momentaufnahmen im Schatten des Kosovo-Konflikts, no. 39, 1998, 31 p.

Stefanie Harter, Die Russische Luftfahrtindustrie: Endgültige Bruchlandung? no. 43, 1998, 34 p.

Heinz Brahm, Die Erste Antikom-munistische Regierung in Bulgarien, no. 44, 1998, 37 p.

Asian Development Bank Publications

To order: Asian Development Bank, Information Office, P.O. Box 789, 0980 Manila, Philippines, fax 632-636-2648, Email: adbpub@mail.asiandevbank.org.

Armin Bauer, Nina Boschmann, David Green, and Kathleen Kuehnast, A Generation at Risk: Children in the Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, April 1998, 158 p.

Children in Central Asia are currently experiencing an enormous deterioration in what were once constants in their everyday lives. Transition deprives them of a comprehensive social safety net, free education, nourishment programs, cultural enrichment activities, socialized health care, and guaranteed employment upon reaching young adulthood. Before transition, child development indicators in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were comparatively high in relation to other countries. Some problems existed, especially pertaining to environmental degradation and its direct effect on children’s health; but over the past five years, the difficult processes of creating a market have opened an enormous societal gap into which children have been the first to fall. In spite of the high regard for children in the Central Asian societies, the transition has had devastating effects on many families due to widespread unemployment, an eroding education system, debilitating communicable diseases, collapsing infrastructure, and general impoverishment.

Central Asian Environments in Transition, July 1997, 281 p.

Regional Economic Cooperation in Central Asia, July 1998, 354 p.

Women and Development Attitudes in Kazakhstan: Social Consequences, 1998, 170 p.

Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE-CEU) Publications

To order: CASE-CEU, Bagatela 14, 00-585 Warsaw, Poland, tel. 4822-628-0912, fax 4822-628-6581, Email: case@ case.com.pl.

Stanislaw Gomulka, Output: Causes of the Decline and the Recovery, WPS 8, July 1998, 31 p.

In the countries of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, the quantity and quality of human capital is similar to what the successful emerging economies of East Asia, Western Europe, and Latin America have or had—at similar levels of GDP per capita. International statistics suggest that the growth rates of such economies can be high, provided the macroeconomic environment is stable and the microeconomic environment is liberal and competitive. In the decades since the 1950s, the bulk of Latin American countries have, for the most part, failed to create such an environment. The CE and FSU countries thus know which model they should not follow. On the other hand, the East Asia model relies on a specific culture that limits social transfers to very low levels, and therefore, also limits the tax burden. This has helped to vigorously lift national savings. But that model may prove difficult to adopt by countries that developed and for several generations operated according to the culture of a large welfare state.

Iraj Hashi and Jan Mladek, Fiscal and Regulatory Impediments to the Entry and Growth of New Firms: A Comparative Analysis of Five Transition Economies, WPS 9, July 1998, 28 p.

Enrico C. Perotti and Stansilav Gelfer, Investment Financing in Russian Financial-Industrial Groups, WPS 10, July 1998, 27 p.

Lucjan T. Orlowski, Monetary Policy Targeting in Central Europe’s Transition Economies: The Case for Direct Inflation Targeting, WPS 11, August 1998, 30 p.

Przemyslaw Wozniak, Relative Price Adjustment in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic: Comparison of the Size and Impact of Inflation, WPS 12, August 1998, 46 p.

Marek Jarocinski, Money Demand and Monetization in Transition Economies, WPS 13, September 1998, 38 p.

Stanislaw Gomulka and Piotr Jaworski, Implicit Public Debt of the Polish Social Security System, WPS 14, September 1998, 71 p.

CASE Studies and Analyses Publications

Dilemmas of Exchange Rate Policy in Central Europe, Studies and Analyses 130, May 1998, 39 p.

Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth, Studies and Analyses 131, May 1998, 50 p.

Krzysztof Rybinski, Capital Inflows in Central and Eastern Europe: Inflation, Balance of Payments and Recommended Policy Responses, Studies and Analyses 132, May 1998, 35 p.

Rudiger Ahrend and Vadym Lepetyuk, Forecasting Real GDP and the Current Account in a Transition Economy: Two Simple Econometric Methods and Their Application to Ukraine, Studies and Analyses 134, June 1998, 23 p.

Malgorzata Antczak and Urban Gorski, The Influence of Exchange Rate Stability on Inflation: A Comparative Analysis, Studies and Analyses 137, July 1998, 30 p.

CEES Publications

To order: Centre for European Economic Studies, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, United Kingdom, tel. 44(0)116-252-2757, fax 44(0)116-252-2908, Internet: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/cees.html.

Annual Report 1997/98, Discussion Papers in European Economic Studies, University of Leicester, 1998, 23 p.

Barbara M. Roberts, Transition and Changes in Industrial Concentration in Poland, no. 98/4, July 1998, 23 p.

CEPR Publications

To order: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 90-98 Goswell Road, London EC1V 7DB, United Kingdom, tel. 44-171-878-2900, fax 44-171-878-2999, Email: cepr@cepr.org.

Annette N. Brown and J. David Brown, Does Market Structure Matter? New Evidence from Russia, Discussion Paper 1946, August 1998, 36 p.

David Begg, Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis, Discussion Paper 1956, September 1998, 29 p.

Having pegged its exchange rate since the outset of reform in 1991, the Czechs were finally forced to abandon the peg in May 1997. What lessons does this episode contain for the design of macroeconomic policy? One interpretation is that the koruna was the innocent victim of turmoil in Asia. This neglects the deterioration of competitiveness prior to the crisis. This crisis provoked a much-needed adjustment in fiscal policy, which altered the monetary-fiscal mix and consequent equilibrium exchange rate. Sterilization during 1994–96 unhelpfully delayed adjustment. Earlier abandonment of the parity would have helped only if it had also induced the required fiscal adjustment.

David Begg, Paul De Grauwe, Francesco Giavazzi, Harald Uhlig, and Charles Wyplosz, The ECB: Safe at Any Speed? Monitoring the European Central Bank, 1998.

European Economic Perspectives [Special Issue]

Janet Mitchell, The Problem of Bad Debts: Cleaning Banks’ Balance Sheets in Economies in Transition, September 1998, 36 p.

EBRD Publications

To order: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, One Exchange Square, London EC2A 2JN, United Kingdom, tel. 44171-338-7553, fax 44171-338-6102, Internet: http:// www.ebrd.com.

E. Philip Davis, Policy and Implementation Issues in Reforming Pension Systems, Working Paper 31, August 1998, 22 p.

Philippe Aghion, Patrick Bolton, and Steven Fries, Optimal Design of Bank Bailouts: The Case of Transition Economies, Working Paper 32, September 1998, 31 p.

Recapitalization should be made explicitly conditional on liquidations of nonperforming loans. Ideally, recapitalization should not take the form of purchases of preferred stock or subordinated bonds. Of course, it may not be practical or feasible to set up such a conditional scheme on short notice following the outbreak of a banking crisis. This is why the authors advocate the institution of bankruptcy procedures for banks in anticipation of future banking crises.

Greenwood Publishing Group Publications

To order: Greenwood Publishing Group, 88 Post Road West, P.O. Box 5007, Westport, Connecticut 06881-5007, United States, tel. 203-226-3571, fax 203-222-1502, Internet: http://www.green wood.com.

Christopher J. Anderson and Carsten Zelle (eds.), Stability and Change in German Elections—How Electorates Merge, Converge, or Collide, September 1998, 376 p.

Silviu Brucan, Social Change in Russia and Eastern Europe—From Party Hacks to Nouveaux Riches, September 1998, 136 p.

William H. Meyer, Human Rights and International Political Economy in Third World Nations, August 1998, 264 p.

Demetrius S. Iatridis and June Gary Hopps (eds.), Privatization in Central and Eastern Europe: Perspectives and Approaches, August 1998, 224 p.

Wirtschaft im Wandel Publications

To order: Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Delitzscher Strasse 118, 06116 Halle, tel. 0345-775-3701, fax 0345-775-3820, Internet: http://www.iwh.uni-halle.de.

Binnennachfrage Starkt Aufschwung [Domestic Demand Stimulates Economic Growth], 9–10/1998, 31 p.

Hubert Gabrisch and Thomas Linne, Russland-Krise: Ursachen, Folgen und Wege zu ihrer Uberwindung [Russia’s Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions], 12/1998, 19 p.

Other Publications

Sten Berglund (ed.), The Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe, Edward Elgar Publishing Inc., United States, November 1998, 416 p.

To order: Katy Wight, Edward Elgar Publishing Inc., 6 Market Street, North-hampton, Massachusetts 01060, United States, tel. 413-584-5551, fax 413-584-9933, Email: kwight@e-elgar.com, Internet: http://www.e-elgar.co.uk.

John T. Dori and Richard D. Fisher, Jr. (eds.), U.S. and Asia Statistical Handbook 1998-1999, The Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center, 1998, 97 p.

To order: The Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E., Washington, D.C. 20002-4999, United States, tel. 202-546-4400, Internet: http://www.heritage.org.

Foreign Companies in Russia Yearbook 1998, Eastern Europe Market Intelligence, Business Monitor International, April 1998.

To order: Michelle Gahan, 179 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4DD, United Kingdom, tel. 44171-248-0468, fax 44171-248-0467, Email: busmon @dial.pipex.com.

Peter Newman (ed.), The New Pal-grave: Dictionary of Economics and the Law [3 volumes], Macmillan Reference Limited, United Kingdom, 1998, 2,550 p.

To order: Grove’s Dictionaries Inc., 345 Park Avenue South, 10th Floor, New York, New York 10010, United States, tel. 212-689-9200, fax 212-689-9711, Email: grove@grovereference.com.

Negoslav P. Ostojic and Norman Scott (eds.), Experiences and Results of Privatization in the Economies in Transition, Proceedings of the Second ECPD International Round Table, Belgrade, 1998, 270 p.

To order: European Center for Peace and Development (ECPD) of the United Nations University of Peace, 11000 Belgrade, Terazije 41, tel. 38111-3246-041, fax 38111-3240-673.

Katarina Ott, Tax Administration Reform in Transition: The Case of Croatia, Occasional Paper Series no. 5, Institute of Public Finance, Croatia, April 1998, 34 p.

To order: Institute of Public Finance, Katanciceva 5, 10000 Zagreb Croatia, tel. 385-1-481-9363, fax 385-1-481-9365, Email: ured@ijf.hr.

Shahin Yaqub, Poverty in Transition Countries: What Picture Emerges from UNDP’s National Human Development Reports? PRUS Working Paper no. 4, May 1998, 31 p.

To order: Poverty Research Unit, School of African and Asian Studies, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QN, United Kingdom, tel. 44-1273-678-739, fax 44-1273-623-572, Email: PRU@ sussex.ac.uk.

Special Publications

International Agriculture and Trade Reports—Transition Economies: Situation and Outlook Series, a publication by the United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May 1998, 31 p.

To order: United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831.

Journal of Transforming Economies and Societies, published by the University Council for Economic and Management Education Transfer, Cracow University of Economics, 5(2), 1998, 118 p.