Russians’ views of economic transition depends on their profession, political views, and social position. The Russian Center for Public Opinion and Market Research has been surveying Russian public opinion for 10 years, providing researchers and politicians with data for analyzing the response to transition.

Reform attracts about the same support and opposition now as when it began in 1992, with one-third of the adult population approving and one-third disapproving. Those proportions have not been constant, however. During Gaidar’s premiership, supporters outnumbered opponents two to one. Support for reform was also high during the presidential election campaign in 1996. It fell after the crisis in 1998, but has risen again by fall 1999.

The pro-reformers are generally younger, more urban, with a higher level of education. They are more apt to take initiative, more competitive, and better prepared to take responsibility for their decisions. Opponents of reform tend to be those whose careers or social status have suffered during the transition years. Their quality of life and self-respect have deteriorated. Quite a few recall with nostalgia a stable and more comfortable life under Communism.

In January 2000, 43 percent of respondents felt that their social status was worse than it had been five years before, and 43 percent felt that it remained the same. Only about 14 percent felt that it had improved. This group grew between 1994 and 1997, but was reduced by the crisis of 1998. After one year their share fluctuated again around 14 percent.

In September 1996, following the presidential elections, the number of respondents who felt that their social status was unchanged was one-third lower than in 1995, and the number of those who felt that it was worse was 1.5 times higher. The numbers who felt that their social status had worsened peaked again after the 1998 crisis, but there was some recovery in 1999.

Russian society is split into separate social universes, and the division is growing wider. In one universe are people who feel their social status is improving. They are younger, better educated, earn relatively well, want a high level of consumption, and are always ready to adapt to changes. They are confident that if they lose one job they will find another. They have created a new fabric of social relationships, forming independent social organizations without a political agenda. This is how 15 to 20 percent of Russian think and live.

In the other social universe, people’s social status is declining. They have low salaries, increasingly isolated status, poor social connections, a shrinking social space, and falling living standards. They are in insecure jobs or are unemployed, and they have lost hope of improving their circumstances in the near future. About 40 percent of the population lives in this universe. Another 40 percent believe their social status has not change much in the past 5 years—they, however, live in unstable stability.

Larissa Kosova is a senior researcher at the Russian Center for Public Opinion and Market Research (VCIOM), 16, Kazakova Str., Moscow, 103064. tel.: 7 095-265-5026, fax.: 7-095-261- 8870, email:Ikos@wciom.ru. VCIOM’s Web site: http://www.wciom.ru/HOME_E.HTM