World Development Indicators 2001, April 2001, 400 pp.

In its fifth edition, this World Bank statistical reference provides a comprehensive view of the world economy. The print edition contains more than 80 tables and 600 indicators for 148 economies and 14 country groups, with basic indicators for another 59 economies. The six sections cover world view, people, environment, economy, states and markets, and global links. The volume includes the most recent data on poverty, education, health, and the environment from around the world, as well as new data on the digital divide and how information communication technology is changing the process of development.

World Bank Atlas 2001, April 2001, 64 pp.

This volume provides easy-to-read colorful world maps, tables, and graphs highlighting key social, economic, and environmental data for 206 countries. The atlas parallels the six thematic sections of the World Development Indicators (world view, people, economy, environment, states and markets, and global links). It contains new estimates of purchasing power parities and gross national income, as well as, share of exports, agriculture, and investment in GDP.

Investment Promotion Toolkit: A Comprehensive Guide to FDI Promotion, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), February 2001.

This toolkit describes international best practices in investment promotion, gained during MIGA’s 12 years of investment experience in more than 150 emerging economies and developing countries. It is a useful guide to national and local investment intermediaries for attracting and retaining foreign direct investment. Its nine modules cover all basic functions of investment promotion: understanding foreign direct investment, developing an investment promotion agency, creating an investment promotion strategy, building effective partnerships, strengthening the location’s image, targeting and generating investment opportunities, servicing investors, monitoring and evaluating activities and results, and utilizing information technology.

Karen M. Brooks and Zvi Lerman, Turkmenistan: An Assessment of Leasehold-Based Farm Restructuring, TP 500, 2001, 88 pp.

Pietro Garibaldi, Mattia Makovec, and Gabriella Stoyanova, From Transition to EU Accession: The Bulgarian Labor Market During the 1990s, TP 494, 2001, 80 pp.

www.worldbank.org/research/workingpapers

Michael Lokshin and Martin Ravallion, Short-Lived Shocks with Long-Lived Impacts? Household Income Dynamics in a Transition Economy, WPS 2459, October 2000, 26 pp.

In theory it is possible that a vulnerable household will never recover from a sufficiently large but short-lived shock to its income. Such shocks could explain the persistent poverty that has emerged in many transition economies. In general, however, households bounce back from transient shocks, albeit not rapidly, as this study, based on statistics from Hungary, shows.

Max Alier and Dimitri Vittas, Personal Pension Plans and Stock Market Volatility, WPS 2463, October 2000, 51 pp.

Carlos B. Cavalcanti and Zhicheng Li, Reforming Tax Expenditure Programs in Poland, WPS 2465, October 2000, 23 pp.

Various "tax expenditure programs"—tax deductions, exemptions, credits, deferrals, preferential tax rates, and exclusions from taxation—that Poland introduced in 1992 to compensate lower-income taxpayers for the withdrawal of subsidies have proliferated, making the normative tax system difficult for the average taxpayer to understand, reducing the tax base, and benefiting higher-income taxpayers more than the taxpayers they were originally designed to help. The authors suggest that strengthening the administration of Poland’s tax expenditure programs is the first step toward making these programs effective and equitable, limiting their costs, and preventing the tax base from shrinking.

Stephen Knack and Omar Azfar, Are Larger Countries Really More Corrupt? WPS 2470, November 2000, 28 pp.

The claim has been made that government corruption is less severe in small countries than in large countries. The authors show that this relation is a result of sample selection. Most corruption indicators provide ratings only for countries in which multinational investors have the greatest interest. These tend to include almost all large nations but only those small nations that are well governed.

Asad Alam and Arup Banerji, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, WPS 2472, November 2000, 25 pp.

Despite a common parentage for most of the twentieth century, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan followed seemingly different paths in the transition to a market economy. Uzbekistan adopted a cautious, gradual approach to market reform, while Kazakhstan followed a more aggressive strategy. Kazakhstan may have achieved a better policy environment, but its economic performance has not been better than Uzbekistan’s. Missing pieces of reform—especially deficiencies in the competitive environment—combined with a rapidly diminishing role for the state may have limited the gains from policy reforms in Kazakhstan.

David A. Grigorian and Albert Martinez, Industrial Growth and the Quality of Institutions: What Do (Transition) Economies Have to Gain from the Rule of Law? WPS 2475, November 2000, 20 pp.

Developing the legal and regulatory framework, improving contract enforcement, and reducing administrative barriers in the business environment encourage investment and improve the efficiency of resource allocation. Policymakers in transition economies should complement privatization with institution building and promote foreign direct investment and public and private investment in education and research and development.

Cevdet A. Denizer, Mustafa Dinç, and Murat Tarimcilar, Measuring Banking Efficiency in the Pre- and Post-Liberalization Environment: Evidence from the Turkish Banking System, WPS 2476, November 2000, 58 pp.

Banking efficiency in Turkey was expected to improve after liberalization. Instead, it declined, because of the worsening macroeconomic situation.

William Easterly, Can Institutions Resolve Ethnic Conflict? WPS 2482, November 2000, 32 pp.

High-quality institutions—reflected in the rule of law, bureaucratic quality, freedom from government expropriation, and freedom from government repudiation of contracts—mitigate the adverse economic effects of ethnic fractionalization. Ethnic diversity has a more adverse effect on economic policy and growth when a government’s institutions are poor. But poor institutions have an even more adverse effect on growth and policy when ethnic diversity is high. In countries in which institutions are good enough, however, ethnic diversity does not weaken growth or worsen economic policies. Good institutions also reduce the risk of wars and genocide that might otherwise result from ethnic fractionalization.

Helena Tang, Edda Zoli, and Irina Klytchnikova, Banking Crises in Transition Economies: Fiscal Costs and Related Issues, WPS 2484, November 2000, 78 pp.

The authors examine strategies for dealing with banking crises in 12 transition economies—five from Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, and Poland); the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania); and four CIS countries (Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Ukraine). The Central and Eastern European countries extensively restructured and recapitalized their banks, most CIS countries pursued large-scale liquidation, and the Baltic states generally adopted a combination of liquidation and restructuring. The various strategies reflected the macroeconomic conditions and the level of development in each country’s banking sector.

The Central and Eastern European countries generally incurred higher fiscal costs than the CIS countries but ended up with sounder, more efficient banking systems, with many of the recapitalized banks privatized to strategic foreign investors. The approach of the CIS countries was less fiscally costly but has left them with weak banking systems and low levels of intermediation. The Baltic states appear to have struck a good balance, incurring modest fiscal costs while making their systems sounder and more efficient.

Policy implications of the study include the following:

• Operational, financial, and institutional restructuring should be undertaken in parallel.

• Financial restructuring should involve adequate recapitalization to deter moral hazard and repeated recapitalization.

• Operational restructuring should entail privatization to core investors (particularly to reputable foreign banks) The enterprise problems underlying banking problems must also be addressed.

• Fiscal costs were reduced when governments dealt only with bad debt inherited from the socialist period; when small banks that held few deposits were allowed to fail, where the social costs of such failure were low; and when only banks that got into trouble because of external shocks were rescued while those suffering from poor management were liquidated.

• The government, not the central bank, should undertake bank restructuring. Central bank refinancing is not transparent and can lead to hyperinflation.

Ilker Domaç and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Banking Crises and Exchange Rate Regimes: Is There a Link? WPS 2489, November 2000, 42 pp.

Monica Das Gupta, Sunhwa Lee, Patricia Uberoi, Danning Wang, Lihong Wang, and Xiaodan Zhang, State Policies and Women’s Autonomy in China, India, and the Republic of Korea, 1950–2000: Lessons from Contrasting Experiences, WPS 2497, November 2000, 34 pp.

State policies can have an enormous affect on gender equity. They can mitigate cultural constraints on women’s autonomy (as they have in China and India) or slow the pace of change in gender equity (as they have in the Republic of Korea). Policies to provide opportunities for women’s empowerment should be accompanied by communications efforts to alter cultural values that limit women’s access to those opportunities. China has achieved the most gender equity, the Republic of Korea the least.

Kirk Hamilton Sustaining Economic Welfare: Estimating Changes in Per Capita Wealth, WPS 2498, November 2000, pp. 28

With the notable exception of China, in most countries with below-median per capita income the population has grown faster than total wealth. This trend is ultimately unsustainable. For many of these countries, policies for sustainability will require both boosting savings and slowing population growth.

Bartlomiej Kaminski, How Accession to the European Union Has Affected External Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Central European Economies, WPS 2578, 2001, 43 pp.

During the reintegration of the Central European countries into the world economy, their proximity and accession to the European Union greatly affected first the flow of capital and then the flow of goods. Countries that adopted radical liberal reform and had preferential access to EU markets have benefited most, attracting foreign direct investment and convincing multinational corporations to locate production sites there.

Gillian Perkins and Ruslan Yemtsov, Armenia: Restructuring to Sustain Universal General Education, April 2001, 72 pp.

Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Jameson Boex, Russia’s Transition to a New Federation, World Bank Institute Learning Resources, 2001, 120 pp.

Sergei M Guriev, Igor Makarov, and Mathilde Maurel, Debt Overhang and Barter in Russia, February 2001.

In this theoretical and empirical analysis of the relation between barter and indebtedness of Russian firms, the authors build a model in which a firm uses barter to protect its working capital against outside creditors, even when barter involves high transactions costs. During renegotiation, rational creditors agree to postpone debt payments rather than destroy the firm’s working capital. Debt restructuring reduces barter but does not eliminate it completely. Firm-level evidence from two independent surveys is consistent with the model’s predictions.

Pietro Garibaldi, Mattia Makovec, and Gabriella Stoyanova, From Transition to EU Accession: The Bulgarian Labor Market During the 1990s, March 2001, 80 pp.

Vietnam: Country Framework Report on Private Participation in Infrastructure, January 2001, 76 pp.

To order: IMF Publication Services, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, United States, tel.: 202-623-7430, fax: 202-623-7201, Email: publications @imf.org, Web site: http://www.imf.org.

J. Schiff, N. Hobdari, A. Schimmelpfennig, and R. Zytek, Pension Reform in the Baltics: Issues and Prospects, OP No. 200, 2001, 39 pp.

The Baltic countries have taken important steps to shore up the long-term financial health of their pension funds by preparing to implement a three-pillar scheme. But fundamental questions about the design of the fully funded scheme remain. For example, a tax-financed move from a pay-as-you-go pension system toward a fully funded plan would tend to increase aggregate savings, while a debt-financed reform would reduce aggregate savings. A move to a fully funded pension scheme imposes important costs, in particular on the current generation and the budget. Introduction of a mandatory fully funded scheme does not in itself solve the problems associated with aging societies.

Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, Setting Up Treasuries in the Baltics, Russia, and other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, OP No. 198, 42 pp.

Stanley W. Black, Obstacles to Faster Growth in Transition Economies: The Mongolian Case, WP/01/37, 2001.

Peter S. Heller and Christian Keller, Social Sector Reform in Transition Countries, WP/01/35, 2001.

This survey, forthcoming this fall, covers 10 European Union accession countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) plus Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine as well as Croatia, Serbia and neighboring Balkan countries as appropriate. Topics include earning money in unofficial economies, corruption and crime, destitution and prosperity, migration in search of work, health, support for democratic and undemocratic forms of government, and the European Union and NATO. Richard Rose and Christian Haerpfer directed the project.

This survey covers living conditions in Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.

In a major new intercontinental initiative, the Global Barometer surveys—which have been conducted in 55 countries in Europe, Africa, and Latin America since 1991—will be linked and extended to East Asia, including China. Global Barometer surveys are nationwide random sample surveys. Questionnaires cover governance, participation and democracy, institutions and corruption, political participation, safety from violence and theft on the street and at home, civic culture, poverty and prosperity, participation in multiple economies, economic expectations, relative affluence, social capital and use of informal networks, attitudes toward the market economy, and structural transformation.

Stephen White, Public Opinion in Moldova, 2001, SPP 342.

The first major social science survey in Moldova incorporates all the standard Barometer questions on politics, economics, and social conditions, facilitating comparison with other former Soviet republics and Romania.

Neil Munro and Richard Rose, Elections in the Russian Federation, SPP 344.

S. White and R. Rose, Nationality and Public Opinion in Belarus and Ukraine, SPP 346.

Fatos Tarifa and Max Spoor (eds.), The First Decade and After: Albania’s Democratic Transition and Consolidation in the Context of Southeast Europe, December 2000.

Fatos Tarifa (ed.), The Breakdown of State Socialism and the Emerging Post-Socialist Order, February 2001.

Jane Falkingham, From Security to Uncertainty: The Impact of Economic Change on Child Welfare in Central Asia, Innocenti Working Paper No. 76, May 2000, 38 pp.

Adopting a multidimensional view of child well-being, the author examines indicators of poverty based on incomes and expenditures, statistics on health, education, and personal development, and social inclusion or exclusion of children. The data show that although children are at the heart of Central Asian culture, they were among those who suffered most from economic transition. Two out of every five Central Asians is under 18.

Child poverty rates exceed those of the general population. Child nutritional status is poor, and levels of stunting and wasting are close to those observed in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet infant mortality has fallen and remains low in comparison to other low- and middle-income countries. Immunization programs reach almost the entire population, and primary school enrollments have been maintained at a reasonably high level. There are signs that the combined impact of low social spending and low household income is beginning to take its toll, however. Children whose families are not able to contribute toward their education or health care face the risk of being excluded from access to these vital services. Families are unable to protect children from the negative outcomes associated with transition. Governments need to intervene, both to protect the future human capital of their countries and to minimize the multiple risks children face during transition.

Bruce Bradbury, Stephen Jenkins, and John Micklewright, Child Poverty Dynamics in Seven Nations, Innocenti Working Paper No. 78, June 2000, 45 pp.

This paper compares child poverty dynamics using panel data from Germany, Hungary, Ireland, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It examines flows into and out of the poorest quintile of the children’s income distribution. There is significant uniformity in patterns of income mobility and poverty dynamics across the seven countries, except for Russia, where children in the mid-1990s were much more likely to move into or out of the the poorest quintile than were children in the other countries studied. This trend will probably subside once the Russian economy stabilizes.

Santosh Mehrotta, Integrating Economic and Social Policy: Good Practices from High-Achieving Countries [Including Cuba], Innocenti Working Papers No. 80, UNICEF, Italy, October 2000, 41 pp.

Janez Bester, Takeover Theories and Prediction Models: The Case of Slovene Privatized Companies, Working Paper No. 7, 2000, 16 pp.

Jeffrey David Turk and Hedvika Usenik, Buyer Supplier Relationships in the Engineering Industries in Slovenia and Comparisons with Hungary, Working Paper No. 8, 2000, 22 pp.

This paper analyzes cooperation between Slovene engineering companies and their buyers and suppliers. It explores the extent and nature of these companies’ integration into the international production networks and the factors contributing to cooperation. Engineering companies are increasingly becoming involved in more long-term relationships with their buyers and suppliers.

Ljubinko Jankov, Banking Sector Problems: Causes, Resolutions and Consequences, Occasional Paper Series No. 10, March 2000.

M. Faulend and V. Sosic, Is the Unofficial Economy a Source of Corruption? Occasional Paper Series No. 9, December 1999.

Predrag Bejakovic and Alastair McAuley, Welfare Policy and Social Transfers in Croatia, Occasional Paper Series No. 8, May 1999.

Katarina Ott and Anto Bajo, Public Investments in Croatia, Occasional Paper Series No. 7, March 1999.

Katarina Ott (ed.), A Citizen’s Guide to the Budget, 2001, 57 p.

Frank Emmert (ed.), European Union Law, December 2000, 704 pp.

One hundred leading cases are presented in 15 chapters that cover the most important areas of law in the European Union.

Jan Michiel Otto, Maurice V. Polak, Jianfu Chen, and Yuwen Li (eds.), Law-Making in the People’s Republic of China, November 2000, 320 pp.

Peter Naray, Russia and the World Trade Organization, January 2001, 208 pp.

The economic and social crisis in the Russian Federation is responsible for the delay in its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The author claims that Russia’s reformers neglected the country’s historical legacy, such as the weak legal system and the underdeveloped political and economic institutions and that that will complicate the country’s accession process. He warns against a fundamentalist approach by the WTO, which could isolate Russia politically and economically, increasing risks to the whole world.

John Bachtler and Ruth Downes (eds.), Transition, Cohesion, and Regional Policy in Central and Eastern Europe, July 2000, 300 pp.

Kristin J. Broderick, The Economy and Political Culture in New Democracies: An Analysis of Democratic Support in Central and Eastern Europe, October 2000, 21 pp.

Mike Geppert, Beyond the "Learning Organization," December 2000, 200 pp.

Rick Simon, Labor and Political Transformation in Russia and Ukraine, December 2000, 208 pp.

Jeffrey Surovell, Capitalist Russia and the West, October 2000, 320 pp.

Hans van Zon, Central European Industry in the Information Age, August 2000, 164 pp.

To order: Sandra Suarez, Edward Elgar Publishing Inc., 136 West Street, Suite 202, Northhamptom, Massachusetts, 01060, United States, tel.: 413-584-5551, fax: 413-584-9933, Email: ssuarez@e-elgar.com, Web site: http://www.e-elgar.co.uk.

Werner Baer and Joseph L. Love (eds.), Liberalization and Its Consequences, January 2001, 336 pp.

The essays in this volume describe, analyze, and compare the achievements and failures of societies that adopted market-based economies within a democratic polity after a long period of communist rule (Russia and Eastern Europe) or military authoritarianism (Latin America), tracing the rocky course of liberal economic policies during the twentieth century.

Melanie Beresford, Economic Transition in Vietnam: Trade and Aid in the Demise of the Centrally Planned Economy, February 2001, 176 pp.

A detailed and thorough account of how Vietnam’s dependence on Soviet aid during the 1960s and 1970s sustained but ultimately undermined the centrally planned economy. Foreign aid provided most of the resources that permitted planned industrialization. Yet, as in other socialist countries, chronic shortages emerged, encouraging individuals and enterprises to divert resources to local uses, particularly when aid supplies were cut after 1975.

P.J. Lloyd and Xiao-guang Zhang (eds.), China in the Global Economy, February 2001, 360 pp.

Frederick Nixson, Bat Suvd, Puntsagdash Luvsandorj, and Bernard Walters (eds.), The Mongolian Economy: A Manual of Applied Economics for a Country in Transition, January 2001, 288 pp.

The contributors argue that policymakers have exacerbated the painful transition process by underestimating its complexity and pursuing inappropriate or at best overly optimistic policy reforms.

David Parker (ed.), Privatization and Corporate Performance, February 2001, 688 pp.

László Csaba, Ostpolitik and Enlargement of the EU: The Challenge of the Millennium, CEU Working Papers IRES No. 2000/2, International Relations and European Studies, Hungary, December 2000, 39 pp.

The growing diversity of issues, the lack of adequate funding, and scarce administrative capacity allow only for a gradualist approach to EU enlargement. The success of accession negotiations may be much more exogenously determined than parties to bilateral talks seem to recognize.

Vladimir Gimpelson and Douglas Lippoldt, The Russian Labour Market: Between Transition and Turmoil, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, United States, 2001.

The authors examine the plight of Russian workers and employers during the first decade of post-Soviet reforms, providing the first integrated analysis of the Russian labor market. They assess changes in old jobs at former state enterprises and evaluate job creation, mostly in private businesses. They also examine the evolution of wages and the availability of social protection to workers. A special section considers the political economy of labor market policy. The authors draw on a rich array of survey data and several years of fieldwork and research.

Lutz Hoffmann and Felicitas Mollers (eds.), Ukraine on the Road to Europe, Physica-Verlag, Germany, 2001, 313 pp.

To fulfill some of the key preconditions for entry into the EU, Ukraine must complete its administrative reform, transform the agriculture sector, privatize the energy sector, continue to liberalize prices, improve relations with the IMF, attract more direct foreign investment, and encourage capital that fled the country to return. To achieve these targets, it must stabilize legislation and make it more predictable, reduce barriers to imports, reduce corruption, cut taxes, eliminate privileges for various enterprises, and "legalize" at least part of the shadow economy. For its part, the EU should demonstrate greater commitment to future membership of Ukraine, accelerate the process of granting it associate status, expand technical assistance to facilitate the harmonization of laws and procedures, and support Ukraine’s bid to accede to the World Trade Organization.

Leonid Polishchuk, Small Businesses in Russia: Institutional Environment, IRIS WP No. 240, January 2001.

After a period of initial expansion, small and medium-size enterprises in the Russian Federation are stagnating or even declining, due to the lack of institutional foundations for sustainable development and growth of private businesses. Small businesses are caught in an institutional trap of poor governance that favors larger firms. As long as poor governance exists and favors large firms, small and medium-size enterprises will remain under pressure.

Miron Rezun, Europe’s Nightmare: The Struggle for Kosovo, Praeger Publishers, February 2001, 240 pp.

To order: Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc., 88 Post Road West, Box 5007, Westport, Connecticut 06881, United States, tel.: 203-226-3571, fax: 203-222-1502, Web site: http://info.greenwood.com/cgi-bin/eupdget.pl?S=RV&I=0275970728.

Martin Raiser, Maria L. Di Tommaso, and Melvyn Weeks, The Measurement and Determination of Institutional Change: Evidence from Transition Economies, Department of Applied Economics WP29, United Kingdom, 2001, 34 pp.

Institution building is at the heart of the transition process. Without functioning institutions, markets cannot work effectively and the transition process cannot be sustained—as the crisis in the Russian Federation shows. Institutional reform is not an area that is well understood by researchers and policymakers, however. The authors analyze the determinants of institutional change, using a panel data set that includes 25 transition economies. They find strong evidence that economic reforms and political liberalization were more powerful forces than changes in economic structures induced by such reforms. They find some evidence for the positive spillover effect on institutional changes from early reforms, such as liberalization and privatization, although the effect operates with a significant lag.

Raymond J. Struyk (ed.), Homeownership and Housing Finance Policy in the Former Soviet Bloc: Costly Populism, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C., 2000, 220 pp.

Subsidy programs for new housing purchases created in the transition economies to address perceived housing shortages are often inefficient, poorly targeted, and very expensive—and they will become even more so as these long-term commitments come due. The authors look at public subsidies for mortgage interest payments, housing construction, and down payments; income tax benefits for interest or home purchase costs; government loan guarantees and support for secondary mortgage facilities; sheltering of capital gains from housing sales; and adoption of contract savings schemes common in Germany and Austria. The study underscores the lessons learned by nations farther along in the transition process—lessons that should serve as guidelines for the development of more efficient banking systems and use of public resources in Southeastern European and the CIS countries.

Suresh Babu and Alisher Tashmatov (eds.), Food Policy Reforms in Central Asia, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington D.C., 2000, 221 pp.

Despite efforts by the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and the external advice and efforts of international and bilateral agencies to help them follow a dynamic growth path, progress in policy reforms has been frustratingly slow. Unless efforts are made to jumpstart their economies, the Central Asian countries may slide into a situation of permanent transition, the social and political costs of which could be enormous. This volume is based on papers presented at a regional workshop, "Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resource Policy Research: Setting the Priorities," held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in 1991. The purpose of the conference was to help develop a regional understanding and consensus in Central Asia on poverty alleviation, better food security, and sustainable natural resources management as well as to develop a set of priorities for food, agriculture, and natural resource policy research in Central Asia.