New Books and Working Papers

Armenia: The Challenge of Reform in the Agricultural Sector, World Bank Country Study, May 1995, 214 p.

Harry G. Broadman, Meeting the Challenge of Chinese Enterprise Reform, Discussion Paper no. 283, April 1995, 40 p.

Emerging Stock Markets Factbook 1995, International Finance Corporation, June 1995, 300 p.

Ira W. Lieberman, John Nellis, Enna Karlova, Joyita Mukherjee, and Suhail Rahuja (eds.), Russia: Creating Private Enterprises and Efficient Markets, Studies of Economies in Transformation no. 15, April 1995, 255 p.

Branko Milanovic, Poverty, Inequality and Social Policy in Transition Economies, PRD TED, Income Distribution during Transition, Research Paper Series no. 9, April 1995, 56 p.

Susan L. Rutledge and others, Selling State Companies to Strategic Investors, Volume 1 Analysis of Issues, Volume 2, Case Studies, CFS Discussion Paper Series no. 106, January 1995, 33 p./106 p.

Simon Commander and Ruslan Yemtsov, Russian Unemployment: Its Magnitude, Characteristics, and Regional Dimensions, PRWP no. 1426, February 1995, 44 p. To order: World Bank, Valerie Reid, Room M3-107, tel. (202)473-5195.

Douglas Galbi, The Significance of Credits and Subsidies in Russian Agricultural Reform, PRWP no. 1441, March 1995, 37 p. To order: The World Bank, Nen Castillo, Room S9-035, tel. (202)473-3490.

Fareed M. A. Hassan and R. Kyle Peters, Jr., Social Safety Net and the Poor during the Transition: The Case of Bulgaria, PRWP no. 1450, 34 p. To order: World Bank, Faith Smith, Room H-245, tel. (202)473-6072.

In Bulgaria, social transfers provide 24 percent of per capita household income. This is comparable to the share in other postsocialist European countries, but more than 40 percent higher than the share in OECD countries. Bulgaria's safety net needs better targeting. Comprehensive reform is needed, focusing on pensions, unemployment benefits, child allowance, and social assistance.

Dimitri Vittas and Roland Michelitsch, Pension Funds in Central Europe and Russia: Their Prospects and Potential Role in Corporate Governance, PRWP no. 1459, May 1995, 50 p.

Social pension systems in most countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union face severe financial pressure; the aging populations are facing a complete breakdown of the system. Restructuring and downsizing of the present system will leave adequate but affordable—thus sustainable—benefits and will allow for the creation and growth of private pension funds.

The shortcomings of company-based benefit plans suggest that transitional economies should opt in the longer run for contribution plans that are based on individual, fully funded capitalization accounts. Such schemes could operate with variable contribution rates, reset each year in accord with the salary growth of each worker, the cumulative investment return on his/her account, and the targeted pension benefit. Once private pension funds are established, long-term financial resources should accumulate rapidly. The funds can then play a major role in modernizing securities markets, stimulating innovation, fostering better accounting and auditing standards, and promoting greater disclosure of information.

The private pension funds could also greatly improve corporate governance and the monitoring thereof. Their "voice" in corporate affairs could be exercised more effectively through collective bodies, allowing them to create more robust structures of corporate governance and to lower monitoring costs. To order: World Bank, Priscilla Infante, Room G8-118, tel. (202)473-7642.

Aerdt C. F. J. Houben, Commercial Bank Debt Restructuring: The Experience of Bulgaria, IMF Policy Analysis and Assessment no. 95/6, April 1995, 25 p.

Mahmood H. Khan and Mohsin S. Khan, Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries and China, IMF Policy Analysis and Assessment no. 95/7, April 1995, 28 p.

Robert J. Flanagan, Wage Structures in the Transition of the Czech Economy, IMF WP no. 95/36, March 1995, 19 p.

This paper examines the extent to which wage structures have adjusted during the economic transitions in the Czech Republic. Since 1988, returns to schooling have increased, driven by weakening returns to vocational education and sharply increased returns to university education. These changes are led by developments in the private sector and retarded by the sluggish response of state enterprises. This general pattern of changing returns emerges in other transition economies as well. As to differences between wage policies in the private and state sectors during the transition, the private sector appears to establish steeper career wage profiles and is more likely than the state sector to use past unemployment experience as an indication of a productivity deficit.

Wage structures in market economies are not free of distortions. The reconstitution of East European labor unions into genuine collective bargaining organizations has the potential for introducing one source of such distortion into the wage structures of economies in transition. Union representation is largely confined to the state sector. Unions in the Czech Republic have had no impact on relative wages in either the state or private sectors.

Tapio O. Saavalainen, Stabilization in the Baltic Countries: A Comparative Analysis, IMF WP no. 95/44, April 1995, 27 p.

The Baltic countries began their stabilization and reform process in earnest in mid-1992. During the first two and a half years of reform, these countries have made significant progress in macroeconomic stabilization. Financial policies were tight, inflation was brought down, and by 1994, the output decline had bottomed out and recovery was under way. The paper argues that in light of the Baltic experience, the credibility of stabilization policies has been of greater importance than the choice of the exchange rate regime per se. Moreover, the cost of disinflation in terms of lost output was limited and short-lived.

Andreja Bohm and Uros Korze (eds.), Privatization through Restructuring, Workshop Series no. 4, 1994.

Marko Simoneti and Dusan Triska (eds.), The Role of Investment Funds in Privatization, Workshop Series no. 5, 1995.

Marko Simoneti and Stefan Kawalec (eds.), Linking Bank Rehabilitation with Enterprise Restructuring and Privatization, Workshop Series no. 6, 1995.

CASE Publications, Warsaw

Stanislaw Gomulka, The Puzzles of Fairly Fast Growth and Rapid Collapse under Socialism, CASE no. 20, April 1994, 20 p.

Jacek Rostowski, Labour Markets and Wages Policies during Economic Transition, CASE no. 22, July 1994, 19 p.

Irena Grosfeld, Comparing Financial Systems, CASE no. 26, September 1994, 26 p.

Marek Dabrowski and Rafal Antczak, Economic Reforms in Kyrgyzstan, CASE no. 28, September 1994, 26 p.

Irena Grosfeld and Gerard Roland, Defensive and Strategic Restructuring in Central European Enterprises, CEPR no. 1135, March 1995, 56 p.

Mark E. Schaffer, Government Subsidies to Enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe: Budgetary Subsidies and Tax Arrears, CEPR no. 1144, March 1995, 47 p.

Lászlo Halpern and Charles Wyplosz, Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition, CEPR no. 1145, April 1995, 42 p.

Christopher Heady and Stephen Smith, Tax and Benefit Reform in the Czech and Slovak Republics, CEPR no. 1151, March 1995, 39 p.

Hans-Werner Sinn, Factor Price Distortions and Public Subsidies in East Germany, CEPR no. 1155, May 1995, 38 p.

Economic development in Eastern Germany is not uniform. The building and construction industry is booming but the manufacturing industry is stagnating. This paper argues that severe distortions in relative factor prices are the cause of the dichotomous development. These distortions result from excessive wage increases and investment support large enough to make the cost of capital negative for East German industry. The support for investment should be abandoned and a political compromise should be sought, to reduce the planned wage rises. The compromise could include an investment-wage agreement for insider workers and a distribution of the stock of public housing, to prevent workers from suffering wealth losses. It would be a Pareto improvement, avoiding the large welfare loss incurred by the policies currently pursued.

Maciej Grabowski and Stephen Smith, The Taxation of Entrepreneurial Income in a Transition Economy: Issues Raised by Experience in Poland, CEPR no. 1166, March 1995, 43 p.

David M. Newbery, Tax and Benefit Reform in Central and Eastern Europe, CEPR no. 1167, April 1995, 15 p.

Karl Aiginger, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, and Josef Zweimuller, East European Trade and the Austrian Labour Market, CEPR no. 1168, May 1995, 26 p.

Christian de Boissieu, Daniel Cohen, and Gael de Pontbriand, Russian Enterprises in Transition, CEPR no. 1174, April 1995, 22 p.

Zdenek Drábek and Alasdair Smith, Trade Performance and Trade Policy in Central and Eastern Europe, CEPR no. 1182, May 1995, 35 p.

Dalia Marin and Monika Schnitzer, Creating Creditworthiness through Reciprocal Trade, CEPR no. 1185, May 1995, 27 p.

David M. Newbery, The Distributional Impact of Price Changes in Hungary and the UK, DAE no. 9402, December 1994, 26 p.

Tamás Révész, An Analysis of the Representativity of the Hungarian Household Budget Survey Samples, DAE no. 9403, December 1994, 40 p.

Peter Nolan, Large Firms and Industrial Reform in Former Planned Economies: The Case of China, DAE no. 9516, March 1995, 33 p.

Georges Korsun and Peter Murrell, The Effects of History, Ownership, and Pre-Privatization Restructuring on Post-Privatization Governance, Working Paper no. 147, January 1995. To order: IRIS Center, 2105 Morrill Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA, tel. (301) 405-3110, fax (301) 405-3020, (Email: info@iris.econ.umd.edu).

István R. Gábor, Too Many, Too Small: Small Entrepreneurship in Hungary—Ailing or Prospering? no. 94.7, 1995.

Mark Selden, Household, Cooperative and State in the Future of China's Countryside, no. 94.8, 1995.

David Stark and Lászlo Bruszt, Inter-Enterprise Ownership Networks in the Postsocialist Transformation, no. 94.9, 1995.

Katherine Verdery, Faith, Hope and Caritas in the Land of the Pyramids: Romania, 1990-1994, no. 95.1, 1995.

Andrew G. Walder, Local Governments as Industrial Firms: An Organizational Analysis of China's Transitional Economy, no. 95.2, 1995.

Jiri Hlavácek, Education, Science and Technology Development, Reform Round Table Working Paper no. 17, October 1994, 13 p.

Alena Zemplinerová and Vladimir Benácek, New Private Sector in the Czech Republic, Reform Round Table Working Paper no. 18, January 1995, 19 p.

Zdenek Tuma and Martin Cihák, The Czech Republic: Growth After Stabilization, Reform Round Table Working Paper no. 19, January 1995, 34 p.

Anders Aslund, How Russia Became a Market Economy, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., May 1995, 378 p. To order: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA, tel. (202) 797-6105.

Alexandra Benham, Lee Benham, and Michael Merithew, Institutional Reform in Central and Eastern Europe: Altering Paths with Incentives and Information, International Center for Economic Growth, April 1995, 59 p. To order: Lee Benham, Department of Economics, Box 1208, Washington University, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130, USA, tel. (314) 935-4535, fax (314) 935-4156.

Andrea Gabor, The US Enterprise Funds for Central and Eastern Europe: Lessons from the First Five Years, Institute for EastWest Studies, New York, 1995, 59 p. To order: Institute for EastWest Studies, Publications Office, 360 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York 10017, USA, tel. (212) 557-2570.

János Gács and Merton J. Peck, International Trade Issues of the Russian Federation, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis no. CP-95-2, Laxenburg, Austria, March 1995. To order: Ms. Shari Jandl, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria, tel. 43-2236-807-556, fax 43-2236-731-47, (Email: jandl@iiasa.ac.at).

Pierre Guislain, Les Privatisations: Un Defi Strategique Juridique et Institutionnel, Droit/Economie, De Boeck Universite, Belgium, 1995, 342 p. To order: ACCES, Fond Jean-Paques 4, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, tel. 32-10-482-519, fax 32-10-482-500.

Carl Haub, Population Change in the Former Soviet Republics, Population Reference Bureau, vol. 49, no. 4, December 1994, 52 p. To order: Population Reference Bureau, Inc., 1978 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728, USA, tel. (202) 483-1100.

Jens Holscher, Anke Jacobsen, Horst Tomann, and Hans Weisfeld, Bedingungen Okon mischer Ent-wicklung in Zentralosteuropa [Conditions of Economic Development in Central and Eastern Europe], Field Studies on Transition no. Bd. 3, University of Wales, Swansea, 1995. To order: University of Wales-Swansea, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, U.K., tel. (0792) 295-179/295-295.

Marvin Jackson and Wouter Biesbrouck, Marketization, Restructuring, and Competition in Transition Industries of Central and Eastern Europe, Avebury, U.K., March 1995, 384 p. To order: Ashgate Distribution Services, Gower House, Croft Road, Aldershot Hants, GU11 3HR, U.K., tel. (01252) 331-551, fax (01252) 344-405.

Eva Kigyossy-Schmidt, Business Services and Technological Change in Central and Eastern Europe: The Limits and Possibilities for Analysis, Discussion Paper no. 1, Freie Universitat Berlin, March 1995, 35 p. To order: Freie Universitat Berlin, Department of Economics, Garystr. 21, D-14195 Berlin, Germany, tel. (4930) 838-2244, fax (4930) 838-2129, (Email: eva.kigyossy-schmidt@ccmailer.wi-wiss.fu-berlin.de).

Roy Prosterman and Tim Hanstead, Land Reform: Neglected, Yet Essential, RDI Reports on Foreign aid and Development no. 87, Seattle, Washington, April 1995, 11 p. To order: Rural Development Institute, 1100 N.E. Campus Parkway, Seattle, Washington 98105, USA, tel. (206) 528-5880, fax (206) 528-5881, (Email: rdi@u.washington.edu).

Andrzej Rudka and Kálmán Mizsei, East Central Europe between Disintegration and Reintegration: Is CEFTA the Solution? The Rose Occasional Paper Series vol. 1, no. 1, Institute for EastWest Studies, 1995, 46 p. To order: Institute for EastWest Studies, Publications Office, 360 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York 10017, USA, tel. (212) 557-2570.

Russian Economic Developments in April 1995: A Brief Overview, Institute for the Economy in Transition, Moscow, 1995, 8 p. To order: 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russia, tel. (095) 229-5449/229-6083, fax (095) 203-8816.

The Global Monetary System after the Fall of the Soviet Empire, Avebury, U.K., January 1995, 288 p. To order: Avebury, Gower House, Croft Road, Aldershot Hampshire, GU11 3HR, U.K., tel. (01252) 331-551, fax (01252) 317-446.

The Russian Economy: Survey of 1994 and Forecasts for 1995, Geonomics/International Academy of National Economy, 1995, 75 p.

Vladimir Popov and his colleagues from the faculty of the Graduate School of International Business (Academy of National Economy) report rising real incomes and consumption spending, positive real interest rates, significant infrastructure and institution building, and even some early signs that Russia's prolonged transition recession is giving way. That Russia has followed a "third way," in between shock therapy and gradualism, is a natural outgrowth of the lack of a national consensus on reforms, extremely dire initial conditions, the collapse of interrepublic trade, and the sheer magnitude of required industrial restructuring.

In early 1995 the government predicted that nominal GDP would reach 950 trillion rubles, up from 850 trillion rubles in 1994. The budget it submitted to the Duma contained a 73 trillion ruble deficit, or 7.7 percent of forecasted GDP. This forecast, however, was based on a predicted 50 percent annual inflation rate, the prospects for which have been dashed by the almost 40 percent inflation during the first quarter. Thus, with aggregate output likely to be at least stable, if not growing slightly, nominal GDP will almost certainly top 1,000 trillion rubles by year's end.

What this much-higher-than-forecast nominal GDP implies for fiscal and monetary policy remains to be seen. But it is virtually certain that with the "shadow" economy growing robustly and now accounting for as much as a third of GDP, tax avoidance will continue to mean that higher tax rates do not necessarily generate higher tax revenues in Russia. To order: Geonomics, 14 Hillcrest Avenue, Middlebury, Vermont 05753, USA, tel. (802) 388-9619, fax (802) 388-9627.

Alfred Schipke and Alan Taylor (eds.), The Economics of Transformation: Theory and Practice in the New Market Economies, Springer (Berlin) 1994.

Transforming the Estonian Economy, Estonian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics/International Center for Economic Growth, Tallinn, 1995. To order: Institute of Economics, Estonian Academy of Sciences, tel. (3722) 454-162, fax (372) 630-8851, (Email: mail@sekr.tami.ee).

Dispatch from Berlin, a quarterly newsletter of the Cooperation Bureau for Economic Research on Eastern Europe. To order: Cooperation Bureau for Economic Research on Eastern Europe, Koenigin-Luise-Strasse 5, D-14191 Berlin-Dahlem, Germany, tel. (4930) 89789-332, fax (4930) 89789-305.

SIGMA Public Management Forum, a quarterly newsletter of the OECD/CCET and EC/PHARE, for public administration practitioners in Central and Eastern Europe. To order: Public Management Forum, SIGMA-OECD Information Services, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cédex 16, France, tel. (331) 4524-7900/4524-1311, fax (331) 4524-1300.

Wirtschaft im Wandel, published by Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle. To order: Professor Dr. Rudiger Pohl, Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Delitzscher Strasse 118, 06116 Halle, tel. (0345) 7753 701, fax (0345) 7753 820.