Joel S. Hellman, Geraint Jones, Daniel Kaufmann, and Mark Schankerman, Measuring Governance, Corruption, and State Capture: How Firms and Bureaucrats Shape the Business Environment in Transition Economies, WPS 2312, April 2000, 44 pp.

(Editor’s note: See also "How Profitable Is Buying State Officials in Transition Economies" Transition, vol.11, no.2, April 2000, p. 8.)

Brian Pinto, Vladimir Drebentsov, and Alexander Morozov, Macroeconomic Stability in Russia a Chance: Harden Budgets by Eliminating Nonpayments, WPS 2324, April 2000, 27 pp.

Annual implicit subsidies in the form of nonpayments amount to 10 percent of GDP in the Russian Federation. These subsidies have stifled growth, contributed to the August 1998 macroeconomic crisis through their impact on public debt, and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. Hardening budgets requires that these nonpayments (or mutual arrears and noncash settlements among the government, the energy monopolies, and manufacturing firms) be eliminated with energy bills, taxes, and budgetary spending settled on time and in cash.

(Editor’s note: See also "Nonpayments Cycle in Russia Suffocates Economic Growth: Proposal of World Bank Economists," Transition, vol.10, no.6, December 1999, p.1.)

James R. Barth, Gerard Caprio, Jr., and Ross Levine, Banking Systems Around the Globe: Do Regulation and Ownership Affect Performance and Stability? WPS 2325, April 2000, 60 pp.

Empirical results highlight the downside of imposing certain regulatory restrictions on commercial bank activities. Regulations that restrict banks’ ability to engage in securities activities and to own nonfinancial firms are closely associated with increased instability in the banking sector. Keeping commercial banks from engaging in investment banking, insurance, and real estate activities does not appear to produce positive benefits.

Branko Milanovic, Social Transfers and Social Assistance: An Empirical Analysis Using Latvian Household Survey Data, WPS 2328, April 2000, 30 pp.

Only 1.5 percent of Latvian households receive social assistance, which represents 20 percent of income for those households. Because social assistance is locally financed, poor households in different parts of the country are treated unequally. Urban households outside Riga and households headed by adult men are systematically discriminated against.

Joel Bergsman, Harry G. Broadman, and Vladimir Drebentsov, Improving Russia’s Policy on Foreign Direct Investment, WPS 2329, May 2000, 21 pp.

The Russian Federation receives relatively little foreign direct investment (FDI), almost none of it of the newer, more efficient kind, involving state-of-the-art technology and world-class competitive production linked to dynamic global or regional markets. Why is this kind of FDI so low in Russia, and what should be done about it?

FDI in the Russian Federation is often based on producing exports that exploit cheap labor or natural resources or are aimed at penetrating protected local markets, not necessarily at world standards for price and quality. To improve FDI flows, Russia should phase out high tariffs and nontariff protection for the domestic market, most tax preferences for foreign investors (which do not increase FDI but do reduce fiscal revenues), and many restrictions on FDI. It should adopt a modern approach to FDI by:

Harry G. Broadman, Reducing Structural Dominance and Entry Barriers in Russian Industry, WPS 2330, May 2000, 18 pp.

Using survey and other data, this article suggests that much of Russian industry is immune from robust competition because of heavy vertical integration, geographic segmentation, and the concentration of buyers and sellers in selected markets. Regulatory constraints protect incumbent firms from competition with new entrants, both domestic and foreign. Russia’s post-privatization program should aim at restructuring anti-competitive structures, reducing barriers to entry, increasing transparency, and improving accountability.

Harry G. Broadman, Competition, Corporate Governance, and Regulation in Central Asia: Uzbekistan’s Structural Reform Challenges, WPS 2331, May 2000, 21 pp.

Like many Central Asian republics, Uzbekistan has adopted a gradual, cautious approach in its transition to a market economy. State enterprises are being changed into shareholding companies, and private enterprises account for 45 percent of all registered firms. But business decisions to set prices, output, and investment are often not market based or wholly within the purview of businesses, especially those in commercial manufacturing and services. Lines of authority for corporate governance—from state enterprises to private enterprises—are ill defined, so there is little discipline on corporate performance and little separation between government and business.

This article urges reform of the competition policy institutions and legal frameworks, including the establishment of an independent agency responsible for competition and regulatory policymak-ing. Infrastructure monopolies should be restructured and unbundled, competition should influence their price, output, and investment decisions. More transparency and accountability is needed toward the public.

Hua Wang and David Wheeler, Endogenous Enforcement and Effectiveness of China’s Pollution Levy System, WPS 2336, May 2000, 27 pp.

There is considerable scope for using economic instruments to reduce China’s industrial pollution problems.

Hua Wang, Pollution Charges, Community Pressure, and Abatement Cost of Industrial Pollution in China, WPS 2337, May 2000, 27 pp.

Community pressure may be as strong an incentive for industrial firms to control pollution in China as pollution levies are.

Howard J. Shatz and Anthony J. Venables, The Geography of International Investment, WPS 2338, May 2000, 27 pp.

Multinationals have become increasingly important to the world economy. The value of overseas production by U.S. affiliates is three times that of U.S. exports, for example. Who is investing where, and where are the products being produced?

Investment in some transition regions, while still modest, grew rapidly in the 1990s. The value of U.S. affiliate production in Europe is seven times that of U.S. exports to Europe; that ratio drops to four for all industrial countries and to 1.6 for developing countries. Only 4 percent of U.S. affiliate production in the European Union is sold back to the United States. For the average developing country the figure is 18 percent, with Mexico leading the developing world at 40 percent. The major outward investors carry out much of their vertical investment close to home, in the European Union and in Central and Eastern Europe.

Michel Noel, Building Subnational Debt Markets in Developing and Transition Economies: A Framework for Analysis, Policy Reform, and Assistance Strategy, WPS 2339, May 2000, 45 pp.

As the trend toward decentralization accelerates, subnational entities in many countries—states, regions, provinces, counties, municipalities and the local utility companies they own—are now responsible for delivering services and investing in infrastructure. Infrastructure investments are growing rapidly to meet increasing urban demand. How should the World Bank help? Subnational debt markets can be a powerful force in a country’s development, although they remain embryonic in most developing and transition economies. It is critical to support the orderly and efficient emergence of such debt markets by reducing moral hazard, improving market transparency, strengthening market governance, establishing a level playing field, and developing local capacity for accounting, budgeting, and financial management. The World Bank should offer a variety of lending and guarantee instruments that encourage private investors to finance subnational entities.

David A. Grigorian, Ownership and Performance of Lithuanian Enterprises, WPS 2343, May 2000, 40 pp.

Does private ownership improve corporate performance in a developing institutional environment? In Lithuania commercial transfer of state property to private owners has significantly improved enterprises’ revenue and export performance.

William Easterly, The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development, WPS 2346, May 2000, 41 pp.

A higher share of income for the middle class and less ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war, more social "modernization," and more democracy. A middle-class consensus distinguishes development successes from failures.

Kamal Saggi, Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey, WPS 2349, May 2000, 45 pp.

How much advantage a developing country can take of technology transfer from foreign direct investment (FDI) depends partly on how well educated and well trained its workforce is, how much it is willing to invest in research and development, and how much protection it offers for intellectual property rights. This article surveys the literature on trade and FDI, especially wholly owned subsidiaries of multinational firms and international joint ventures, as channels for technology transfer. It also examines licensing and other arm’s-length channels of technology transfer. It concludes that:

(Editor’s note: See the review of "Spillovers from Multinationals in Developing Countries: The Mechanisms at Work," on page 8 of this issue.)

To order: Rina Bonfield, room MC3-354, tel.: 202-473-1248, fax: 202-522-3518, email: abonfield@worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at ksaggi@mail.smu.edu.

Yi Chen and Ishac Diwan, When the Bureaucrats Move out of Business: A Cost-Benefit Assessment of Labor Retrenchment in China, WPS 2354, May 2000, 39 pp.

This article estimate the costs and benefits of labor retrenchment in state-owned industrial enterprises in China. For the period reviewed (1994–97), low and stagnant labor productivity and low capital productivity characterized the state sector, while the private sector exhibited consistently higher productivity.

Simulation results for 1996 estimate that 43 percent of the workers in state enterprises and 70 percent of the capital are redundant. By itself, a transfer of labor from the public to the private sector at the current rate would generate increases in output of just 2 percent. A transfer of 10 percent of both capital and labor would achieve a greater efficiency gain than transferring the full 43 percent of redundant workers. This is partly because the private sector uses capital more efficiently than the public sector and partly because it needs capital to hire workers transferred from the public sector.

These results suggest that reform in state enterprises should concentrate more on the efficiency of capital allocation, not just on labor retrenchment. More efficient capital allocation would reduce the pressure on labor and would generate larger gains at a lower social cost.

To order: Mona Yafi, room J4-158, tel.: 202-473-4649, fax: 202-676-9810, email: myafi@worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at ychen@dol.eta.gov or idiwan@worldbank.org.

Beata K. Smarzynska and Shang-Jin Wei, Corruption and the Composition of Foreign Direct Investment: Firm-Level Evidence, WPS 2360, June 2000, 23 pp.

The extent of corruption in a host country affects a foreign direct investor’s choice of investing through a joint venture or through a wholly owned subsidiary. Corruption reduces foreign investment and shifts the ownership structure toward joint ventures.

Mihaly Kopanyi, Samir El Daher, Deborah Wetzel, Michel Noel, and Anita Papp, Hungary: Modernizing the Subnational Government System, DP 417, June 2000, 64 pp.

Hungary has been a pioneer in local government reform among transition economies. Through a series of legal reforms introduced since 1990, it has decentralized the state administration and re-established the full autonomy of local governments. Local governments have adjusted to the changing circumstances, but they are reaching the limit of their ability to adapt in the current framework.

To help Hungary continue to be successful in its transition and to help it accede to the EU, the World Bank partnered three units within the Europe and Central Asia region. This paper discusses key findings from the study of this partnership study, called the Hungary Subnational Development Program. It also proposes policies for modernizing the subnational government system, through fiscal decentralization, local capacity building, and development of a competitive credit market.

Dean Girdis, Tavoulareas Stratos, and Ray Tomkins, Liquefied Natural Gas in China: Options for Markets, Institutions, and Finance, DP 414, [Month?] 2000, 96 pp.

Over the past two decades, the World Bank has supported initiatives by the Chinese government to meet the growing and diverse needs of its energy sector. In an effort to meet the continuing demand of the power sector and ensure stability of fuel supply sources, the State Power Corporation asked for World Bank assistance to assess the viability of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source for coastal provinces. In response to their request, the Bank undertook a detailed economic assessment of LNG as an alternative fuel source and reviewed the steps necessary to support its introduction.

Alexander S. Preker and April Harding, (eds.), Hospital Reform: Innovations in Health Care, June 2000.

All over the world, governments are reassessing their role in health service delivery. The reforms being undertaken by these governments are motivated in part by the inefficiency of existing public delivery systems, consumer dissatisfaction with the low quality of care, rising costs, and new theories on public sector management. This report argues that organizational reforms in the health sector are able to improve the performance of services provided through public sector institutions, reduce the level of government expenditure and the size of the core public sector, increase the accountability of public officials and the transparency of the process they control, and make public services more responsive and accessible to consumer choice.

Louis T. Wells, Jr., and Alvin G. Wint, Marketing a Country: Promotion as a Tool for Attracting Foreign Investment, Revised Edition, Foreign Investment Advisory Service Occasional Paper no. 13, March 2000, 200 pp.

The new competitive foreign investment environment has prompted analogies between competition among governments for foreign investment and competition among firms for market share. Given the similarities in the nature of the competition, it is not surprising that countries are adopting marketing strategies that parallel those of private companies. Some of the findings of research on company marketing programs can thus benefit countries trying to attract investment. Organizations seeking to develop competitive strategies for marketing activities can, to some extent, manipulate three variables in their overall marketing programs: product, price, and promotion. The focus of this report is on promotion.

Margaret E. Grosh and Paul Glewwe, (eds.), Designing Household Survey Questionnaires for Developing Countries: Lessons from Fifteen Years of Living Standard Measurement Study, World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2000.

Joseph Stiglitz and Shahid Yusuf, (eds.), Rethinking the East Asian Miracle: Policy Research Report, World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2000.

Judy L. Baker, Evaluating the Impact of Development Projects on Poverty: A Handbook for Practitioners, Directions in Development Series, 2000, 240 pp.

Despite the billions of dollars spent on development assistance each year, very little is known about the impact of projects on the poor. This handbook tries to fill in this vacuum and provide project managers and policy analysts with helpful tools.

Cities in Transition: A Strategic View of Urban and Local Government Issues, July 2000, 150 pp.

Mahmood H. Khan, Rural Poverty in Developing Countries: Issues and Policies, Working Paper WP/00/78, April 2000.

In most developing countries, poverty is more widespread and severe in rural than in urban areas. This paper reviews some important aspects of rural poverty and draws key implications for public policy. The author presents a policy framework for reducing poverty, taking into account the functional differences and overlap between the rural poor. He proposes several policy options, including stable management of the macroeconomic environment, transfer of assets, investment in and access to the physical and social infrastructure, access to credit and jobs, and provision of safety nets.

R. Gaston Gelos and Ratna Sahay, Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies, Working Paper WP/00/71, April 2000.

This paper examines co-movements of financial markets across Europe’s transition economies. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises was muted, the pattern of high-frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times.

Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay, and Pablo Zoido-Lobatón, Governance Matters: From Measurement to Action, Finance, and Development, 37(2), June 2000, http://www.imf.org/fandd/2000/06/kauf.htm

How can governments and civil society best encourage institutional change by developing and applying a systematic approach to measuring governance, its determinants, and its consequences? This paper presents new measurements and indicators of governance and corruption, summarizes salient results of the costs of misgovernance, and suggests new approaches to diagnose governance challenges within a country and help formulate concrete action programs.

Iftekhar Hasan and Katherin Marton, Development and Efficiency of the Banking Sector in a Transitional Economy: Hungarian Experience, DP 7/2000.

Early reorganization initiatives, flexible approaches to privatization, and liberal policies toward foreign banks’ involvement with domestic institutions helped build a relatively strong and increasingly efficient banking system in Hungary. Banks with higher foreign bank ownership involvement have been more efficient than other banks.

Martti Vihanto, Tax Evasion in a Transition from Socialism to Capitalism: The Psychology of the Social Contract, DP 6/2000.

This paper provides a psychological foundation for the assumption that the decision to evade taxes depends upon the perceived fairness of the tax system. Hayek’s theory of human behavior as a process of rule-following would suggest that taxpayers are more compliant with tax laws to which they can in principle give their full consent. A social contract as a basis of tax policy may provide a potent means to combat tax evasion, particularly in transition economies, which inherited a deep mistrust of the government from their socialist past.

Jukka Pirttilä, Fiscal Policy and Structural Reforms in Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis, DP 5/2000.

Using panel data from 25 transition economies, the author finds that price liberalization has a positive impact on fiscal performance, while privatization and restructuring negatively affect fiscal balances (because of their effect on unemployment). These findings contrast somewhat with earlier empirical work and theoretical transition economics, which suggest that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. The analysis suggests that countries with better fiscal positions may have benefited from favorable initial conditions.

John Micklewright and Kitty Stewart, Child Well-Being in the EU and Enlargement to the East, Working Paper 75, February 2000, 32 pp.

John Micklewright, Education, Inequality and Transition, Working Paper 74, February 2000, 44 pp.

Analysis of the transition period focuses on the differences in access and achievement associated with household income and geographic location. Disparities differ across the region. In some countries, such as the Russian Federation, there are grounds for serious concern, but no country has cause for complacency.

Margarita Balmaceda, (ed.), On the Edge, 2000, 300 pp.

This report analyzes the geopolitical links among the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the three bordering central European states, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The focus is on economic, political, and security issues.

Peter Barta, Metamorphosis in Russian Modernism, 2000, 200 pp.

Modern Russia has been shaped by Peter the Great’s sudden attempt to transform it into a European country. Two hundred years after Peter’s forceful westernization, during its second crucial transformation, in 1917, Russia witnessed the decay of classic realism and positivism and the rise of irrational philosophies, psychoanalysis, artistic experimentation, Marxism, and the birth of the new genre of film. This volume emphasizes the metamorphic nature of Russia, noting the futility of attempting to understand it—let alone predict its future—without considering the intellectual, social, and emotional reasons for its restlessness.

Henryk Domanski, On the Verge of Convergence: Social Stratification in Eastern Europe, 2000, 200 pp.

This book compares social structure, mobility, inequality, lifestyle, and economic stratification in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, and Slovakia.

Rusmir Mahmutcehajic, Bosnia the Good: Tolerance and Tradition, 2000, 260 pp.

Corruption and Trafficking: Monitoring and Prevention of Trans-border Crime in Bulgaria, 2000, 55 pp.

Illicit trafficking was a major source feeding Bulgaria’s shadow economy throughout the 1990s. The practice was helped by the weakening of the post-communist state and the spread of collusion among state officials (police, customs officials, senior civil servants, politicians) on the one hand and semi-criminal groups and local mafia on the other. Curbing illegal trafficking and corruption is closely connected to public sector reform and anti-corruption initiatives.

Corporate Governance and Control in Bulgaria: Summary Report, 1999.

This report analyzes data collected from a quantitative sociological survey of 52 Bulgarian enterprises privatized before 1996. It concludes that as soon as possible, Bulgaria should introduce contemporary standards of corporate governance and procedures that could guarantee responsibility and accountability, transparency in the economy, and control mechanisms within private companies.

Stephan Haggard, The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis, forthcoming, 165 pp.

C. Fred Bergsten, The New Asian Challenge, Working Paper 00-4, March 2000.

Catherine L. Mann, Electronic Commerce in Developing Countries: Issues for Domestic Policy and WTO Negotiations, Working Paper 00-3, March 2000, 16 pp.

Electronic commerce and related activities can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic services, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of technology. Electronic commerce integrates domestic and global markets from its very inception. Negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will demand inspection of key domestic policies, particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and distribution and delivery. Rather than view the explosive development of e-commerce with alarm, countries should encourage it as a positive force that engenders deeper liberalization and deregulation throughout the economy.

Ramunas Vilpisauskas, Lithuanian-Russian Economic Relations in the Context of Lithuania’s EU-Membership Process, May 2000.

Since the beginning of the transition a decade ago, political and economic reforms in Lithuania have radically changed public policymaking and the functioning of the economy. The importance of foreign trade has increased (exports represent about 45 percent of GDP, imports more than 50 percent), and there has been a significant shift in trade from Eastern to Western markets, particularly the EU. The share of the EU in Lithuania’s total trade increased from several percent at the beginning of reforms to about 50 percent in 1999. Over the same period, the share of CIS countries decreased from about 85 to about 20 percent. Preliminary estimates seem to indicate that the economic effect of EU membership on Lithuania’s trade with the Russian Federation is likely to be insignificant. However, the effect will depend on such factors as Russia’s accession to the WTO and EU policy toward Russia, especially the implementation of a free trade agreement between Russia and the EU. [The impact of adopting the common external tariff on specific imported products from the Russian Federation to Lithuania and the status of the Kaliningrad region inside the enlarged EU deserve further study.]

Overview of Major Obstacles to Capital Market Development in Lithuania, LFMI Policy Study, March 2000.

Lithuania’s securities market was established in 1993 with the adoption of regulatory acts of law and the establishment of agencies essential for the functioning of the market. Market capitalization and turnover have since risen, as have the number of financial intermediaries. With the bourse trading system and its legal basis undergoing constant improvements, the market increasingly attracts the interest of local and foreign investors. Companies still have great difficulty raising funds through securities issues, however, with most ventures finding it impossible to do. Only six stocks are listed on the blue-chip Official List and 47 issues on the Current List of the National Stock Exchange. The main problems of the capital market stem from the absence of institutional investors and petty regulatory constraints on market participants.

Established in 1995, the Romanian Academic Society (SAR) is an independent public policy institute aimed at increasing the participation of Romanian intellectuals in the country’s political life and fostering modernization and European integration. The institute’s main interests are ethnic relations, local government, the social cost of transition, and education. Address: 15 Petofi Sandor St., Sect. 1, Bucharest, Romania, tel. 401-222-1405, fax: 401-222-1868, email: sar@starnets.ro, Internet: http://sar.ong.ro.

Sorin Ionita and Ciprian Fartusnic, Grassroots of Government: Strategies, Attitudes and Effectiveness in the Romanian Local Administration, No. 17, March 2000.

This study explores the way Romanian mayors reacted to major reforms in local administration initiated by the government in 1998–99. It is based on a survey of 430 local governments and three previous case studies of local budgets. The study analyzes the factors that can explain variations in six institutional performance indicators (innovation, policy effectiveness, privatization, human resources, communication ability, and attitude toward corruption). It finds that the age, education, and experience of the mayor do not affect performance on any indicator. Party affiliation does not appear to be correlated with performance, although rightist mayors seem less tolerant of corruption.

The regional political culture (the "Trans-ylvanian effect") improves only the "soft" aspects of performance, such as communication capability, and procedural effectiveness. On the "hard" issues, such as budgets, privatization, and, surprisingly, corruption, there are no differences associated with the region. The type of locality matters, but the biggest difference is not between urban and rural areas but between small towns and large cities. Rural local governments appear to be no less able than others to perform their duties effectively. The real problems lie at the level of small towns, some of which have been severely hit by the effects of decentralization, including decreases in revenues, ballooning social obligations (which come on top of already high unemployment), poor infrastructure, and lack of economies of scale of local utilities.

Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, Denisa Mandruta, and Sorin Ionita, In the Shadows: Informal Economy and the Survival Strategies of the Unemployed in the Romanian Transition, No. 18, April 2000.

For the unemployed, finding a job in the gray sector is extremely difficult, at least in such regions as Piatra Neamt, where few alternatives exist even for the relatively young, skilled, and entrepreneurial. While in Bucharest the job market is tight and unemployment largely voluntary (or even benefit-induced), in Piatra Neamt about 30 percent of unemployment is caused by the recession and affects people who are more dynamic and flexible than the business environment (small wonder that they work in the underground economy).

Roy L. Prosterman and Leonard Rolfes, Jr., Agricultural Land Markets in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania: Implications for Accession to the European Union, No. 99, October 1999, 30 pp.

Roy L. Prosterman, Leonard Rolfes, Jr., and Jennifer Duncan, A Vision for Agricultural Land Reform in Russia, No. 100, November 1999, 15 pp.

David J. Bledsoe and Roy L. Prosterman, Policy, the Rule of Law, and Rural Land Reform in China, No. 101, February 2000, 15 pp.

Leonard Rolfes, Jr., and Gregory Mohrman, Legal Aid Centers in Rural Russia: Helping People Improve Their Lives, No. 102, February 2000, 27 pp.

David J. Bledsoe and Roy L. Prosterman, The Joint Stock Share System in China’s Nanhai Country, No. 103, February 2000, 21 pp.

Renee Giovarelli, Mortgage in the Bulgarian Agricultural Sector, No.104, March 2000, 33 pp.

Roy L. Prosterman, Brian Schwarzwalder, and Ye Jianping, Implementation of 30-Year Land Use Rights for Farmers under China’s 1998 Land Management Law: An Analysis and Recommendations Based on a 17-Province Survey, No. 105, March 2000, 56 pp.

Jennifer Duncan, Agricultural Land Reform and Farm Reorganization in Tajikistan, No. 106, May 2000, 47 pp.

Jennifer Duncan and Roy L. Prosterman, Land Market Development in Rural Romania, No. 107, May 2000, 27 pp.

Alexander Ivanter and Anatoly Peresetsky, The Development of the State Bond Market, Working Paper Series (WPS) 99/06, May 1999, 70 pp.

Evsey Burvich and Arkady Dvorkovich, Interest Rates and Domestic Borrowing Costs in the Medium-Term Perspective, WPS 99/08, 2000, 46 pp.

T. Yu. Bogomolova and V. S. Tapilina, Income Mobility in Russia in the mid-1990s, WPS 99/11, 1999, 46 pp.

Laszlo Andor, Hungary on the Road to the European Union: Transition in Blue, Praeger Publishers, 2000, 216 pp.

In the early 1990s "things can only get better" was the prevailing feeling surrounding the dismantling of the state socialist system and the construction of the new parliamentary democracy. From the very early years of transition, however, Hungarians faced large-scale and unexpected hardships in their changing lives, which made them one of the most disappointed nations in Eastern Europe by 1993. In the second half of the 1990s, the policies of the Socialist-Liberal coalition—particularly the positive developments in the enlargement process of the EU and membership in NATO—restored the belief in rapid and successful accession to the major Western economic and security organizations. But, the author warns, further stumbling blocks are expected on the road toward EU accession.

Michael S. Bernstam and Alvin Rabushka, Fixing Russia’s Banks: A Proposal for Growth, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1998, 111 pp.

Michael S. Bernstam and Alvin Rabushka, From Predation to Prosperity: Breaking Up Enterprise Network Socialism in Russia, [in progress] 2000.

Cuba in Transition, Volume 9. Selected papers and commentaries presented at the Ninth Annual (1999) Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE).

Papers included in the volume deal with a wide range of topics related to Cuba’s economy and society, including the current economic and political situation, macroeconomics, monetary and fiscal issues, economic reforms, intellectual property and the Internet, transition issues, politics, the role of the private sector in agriculture, public opinion, sugar and agriculture, civil society and transition, tourism, legal issues, and sectoral economic studies.

Stephen Kotkin and Bruce A. Elleman, (eds.), Mongolia in the Twentieth Century: Landlocked Cosmopolitan, Paperback, M.E. Sharpe, February, 2000.

Jean C. Oi, Rural China Takes Off: Institutional Foundations of Economic Reform, University of California Press, March 1999, 259 pp.

Margaret M. Pearson, China’s New Business Elite: The Political Consequences of Economic Reform, Paperback, University of California Press, 2000, 217 pp.

Daniel Piazolo, Poland’s Membership in the European Union: An Analysis with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, LICOS Discussion Paper 89/2000, Centre for Transition Economics at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 2000.

To order: LICOS, Centre for Transition Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Debériotstraat 34, 3000 Leuven, Belgium, fax: (32)1632-6599, email: Conny.Schuurmans@econ.kuleuven.ac.be, or Daniel Piazolo, Kiel Institute of World Economics, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel, Germany, fax: (49)431-8814-500, email: dpiazolo@ifw.uni-kiel.de.

David Shambaugh, (ed.), Is China Unstable? Assessing the Factors (Studies on Contemporary China), M.E. Sharpe, February, 2000.

Wand Shaoguang and Hu Angang, The Political Economy of Uneven Development: The Case of China, Paperback, M.E. Sharpe, February, 2000.