Building 490D
Upton, New York 11973
USA
Contact Person : Mr. Gary A. Goldstein
Tel: (1) 516-282.2646
Fax: (1) 516-282.7867
Or through: Mr. Tom Kram, IEA-ETSAP; see under MARKAL.
MARKAL-MACRO combines the MARKAL model, see pp. , with the neo-classical macroeconomic growth model MACRO. MARKAL represents in detail the energy sector, linked to the rest of the economy through MACRO. Utility is maximized by MACRO, optimizing capital, labour and energy inputs into the economy subject ot elasticities of substitution. Energy demands are thus endogenous. The combined problem constitutes one, hard-linked and non-linear model that is solved simultaneously.
- Base year energy balance;
- Base year GDP and (potential) GDP growth projection;
- Base year Energy System Cost;
- Sectoral GDP decoupling factors for energy demands;
- Base year energy prices and price projections;
- Energy technology: overall efficiency, fuel input (mix), costs, penetration constraints, scheduled maintenance;
- Optional: demand technologies, availability factor (by time division), penetration rates, environmental coefficients, time dependency.
Local, regional, national scales possible.
Medium and long term. Size time steps are chosen by user (minimum 1 year; maximum 9 periods; 9 periods of 5 years is most common).
- Integrated economy, energy and environmental analysis and planning;
- Basic approach: dynamic optimization (NLP) to maximize utility, represented by the discounted sum of consumption.
Macroeconomic analysisNeo-classical growth model with nested substitution (CES) between the capital/labour aggregate and energy. Energy is represented as the weighted sum of useful energy demands in the MARKAL submodel.Total energy system analysis
Demand analysis: Optional level of detail for demand sector, end use; demands can be presented by six time-divisions (simplified load pattern); possibility of modelling conservation technologies;
Resource analysis: Detailed modelling of depletable and renewable resources is possible;
Supply side analysis: Detailed modelling possible, including modelling of availability by time division; allows for modelling of CHP with variable heat and electricity output ratios;
Supply/demand balance: Partial Equilibrium through Optimization.Detailed electric system analysis
Load curve: (6 time-divisions) is a result, DSM possible;Environmental analysis
Load characterization: Exists as a maximum out of 6 time-divisions and a required peak capacity;
Generation expansion analysis: Is endogenous;
Transmission analysis: Extended version for multiple grids and exchange available.
Air-pollution: Permits comprehensive treatment of pollutants (not on local level) single and combined treatment possible;
Water: As above;
Solid waste: As above;
Land use: As above;
Occupational health and safety: Not included.
Decision support analysis: Comprehensive scenario comparison, tailored to suit the uses/customers preferences.
Flexibility:
A minimum amount of data is required, level of detail can grow with data development.
Future development
Inclusion of material and product flows, more detailed representation of rest of economy, enhanced data exchangeability.
User friendliness
Basic understanding of optimization and of macro-economic modelling is required. User interface (MUSS) for data handling, model execution and anlaysis: menu driven, on-line help, error checking, graphic outputs, outpus in DBF format, easy inter-scenario comparison. MUSS supports execution and side-by-side anlaysis of MARKAL and MARKAL-MACRO, sharing the same data for the energy system.
Documentation
MARKAL and MUSS user guides available, upgrade covering new options and MARKAL-MACRO under development. Description of MARKAL-MACRO available. 'Hands-on' tutorial course under development.
Training
3 weeks to start up, later three weeks to improve skills.
Case studies
Implemented for the US, Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Several other IEA member countries committed to follow in 1995. MARKAL-MACRO is also transferred to the US-DOE as a tool for Least Cost Energy Strategies development.
Hardware
Minimum IBM/386;
(recommended IBM/486 or Pentium);
8 MB RAM, 30 MB hard drive;
VGA color monitor.
Software
DOS 5.0;
GAMS and MINOS (optional: OSL for linear presolving).
Ahn, S.J., MARKAL-MACRO/2 - An Energy-Environmental Modelling System, engineer's thesis, Department of Operations Research, Stanford University, 1992.Hamilton, L.D., G.A. Goldstein et al., MARCAL-MACRO: An Overview, Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Group, Analytical Sciences Division, Department of Applied Science, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Associated Universities, BNL-48377, November 1992.
Manne, A.S. and C.-O. Wene, MARCAL-MACRO: A Linked Model for Energy-Economy Analysis, Brookhaven National Laboratory, BNL-47161, 1992.