Tools for Assessment

MESSAGE III


Contents:

| Overall Description | | Data Requirements | | Spatial Coverage | | Time Horizon | | Objective | | Issue Addressed and Basic Approach | | Adaptability | | Transferability | | Hardware and Software Requirements | | Bibliography |

Organisation : IIASA
Schloßplatz 1
A-2361 Laxenburg
Austria
Contact Person : Mr. Y. Sinyak
Tel: (43-2236) 715 210 or 807 490
Fax: (43-2236) 71 313
E-mail: siniak@iiasa.ac.at

Overall description

The MESSAGE modelling system is generally used for the optimisation of energy supply systems. However, other systems supplying specified demands of goods that have to be processed before delivery to the final consumer could be optimized. MESSAGE consists of a demand data module, supply data module, optimization module, results module and supporting programs.

Data Requirements

- technology data base, e.g. efficiency, costs, emissions, etc.;
- energy prices;
- resource bases;
- import/export constraints;
- technology penetration rates and constraints;
- optimal load curves

Spatial coverage

Depends on user's choice.

Time horizon

The time horizon is divided into periods, the number of years aggregated into a period depends on the problem to be solved. The number of years within a period can vary over the planning horizon.

Objective

MESSAGE is an instrument for medium- to long-term dynamic planning of the operation and expansion of energy systems. The objectives include:
- resource extraction analysis;
- import/export of energy;
- energy conversion analysis;
- energy transport and distribution analysis;
- final energy utilization by consumers analysis;
- environmental protection policy;
- investment policy;
- opportunity costs (shadow prices, marginal costs).

Issues addressed and basic approach

Macroeconomic analysis
MESSAGE III evaluates energy systems costs and capital require-ments for energy planning (scenario development) and CO2 tax impacts on energy mix.

Total energy system analysis

Demand analysis: Incorporates useful energy, final energy, secondary energy, energy efficiency, fuel substitution, energy conservation, energy/economy elasticity (optional);
Resource analysis: fossil fuel resources are given by various cost categories, domestic renewable energy potentials and costs;
Supply side analysis: Detailed evaluation of supply side configurations;
Supply/demand balance: Optimization of energy balances in dynamics.
Detailed electric system analysis
Load curve: Typical days (e.g. winter, summer and intermediate season's day) are used to describe load curves;
Load characterization: Each typical day is described by three parameters - night, peak, and the remaining day load;
Generation expansion analysis: Electricity generation is controlled by technology penetration parameters and demand constraints;
Transmission: Simple analysis includes costs and energy flows.
Environmental analysis
Air-pollution: Environmental module with pollution coefficients;
Water: Currently not available;
Solid waste: Currently not available;
Land use: Currently not available;
Occupational health and safety: Not available.

Decision support analysis: Sensitivity analysis and scenario comparisons are user-friendly. Costs of pollution abatement are included in the objective function.

Adaptability

Flexibility
Easy for changes of input data and conditions, including changes in the objective function; special technology data base.

Future development
Currently not planned.

Transferability

User friendliness
Special training required.

Documentation
Available extended manual in English.

Training
Required as for all other LP models.

Case studies
The MESSAGE model has been used in numerous studies to evaluate energy-related questions. World energy scenarios have been analyzed with this model as well as industrial energy flows. The planning horizon stretched over one year to more than 100 years. The results are published in more than 25 publications elsewhere.

Hardware and software requirements

Hardware
(a) IBM PC386 or higher, with a coprocessor;
8 MB RAM, 300 MB hard disk; or
(b) Sun Workstation;
IBM RISC 6000.

Software
AT&T UNIX 5.3 or higher;
Sun UNIX or IBM AIX;
Optimize: MINOS, MOPS or OSL;
FORTRAN run-time license;
MS-DOS.

Bibliography

Messner, S., User's Guide for MDB - The MESSAGE III Data Bank System, Version 1.0, TEMAPLAN Group, Vienna, June 1990.

Messner, S., User's Guide for the Matrix Generator of MESSAGE II. Part 1 and 2: Model Description and Implementation Guide and Appendices. Working Paper WP-84-72. Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1984.

Messner, S. and Strubegger M., The Energy Model MESSAGE III, Version 1.0, TEMAPLAN Group, Vienna, April 1990.

Nurminski, E., T. Balabanov, Decomposition of a Large-Scale Energy Model, IIASA Report RR-84-16, Jul. 84(18).

Schrattenholzer, L., The Energy Supply Model MESSAGE, IIASA Report RR-81-31, Dec. 81(29).

Strubegger, M., Management System for MESSAGE III, Version 1.0, TEMAPLAN Group, Vienna, April 1990.

Strubegger, M.,User's Guide for the Post-Processor of MESSAGE II. Working Paper WP-84-72. Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1984.

TEMAPLAN GmbH (1982), Long-Term Energy Supply Strategies for Stockholm County, Boeblingen, FRG.

Rogner, H.-H. (1983), IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development: Summary, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

di Primio, J.C. and M. Strubegger (1981), An Analysis of Brazil's Energy Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

de Saint Louvent, C. et al. (1981), Application of the IIASA Methodology to the Mexican Case: An Assessment of the Mexican Energy Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Messner, S. et al. (1986), Natural Gas in Europe, WP-86-39. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Grauer, M., Lewandowski, A., and Schrattenholzer, L. (1982), Use of the Reference Level Approach for the Generation of Eficient Energy Supply Strategy, WP-82-19, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Gerking, H. (1987), Modeling of Multi-Stage Decision Making Process in Multi-Period Energy Models, European Journal of Operational Research 32(2):191-204.