Prospects for 2015

Development Goals

Poverty Challenge

An Agenda for Action

World Bank Strategy

The Role of IBRD

The Role of IDA

Meeting the Poverty Challenge: Progress toward the Goals
…and uneven progress across regions…

Progress to Date

Substantial progress in poverty reduction has been made in some areas. In the 1990s significant progress was made in reducing income poverty in East Asia before the 1997 financial crisis, and the negative impact of the crisis was partially reversed during the subsequent recovery. The share of people living below $1 per day also declined in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in South Asia, although the number of poor people still increased in South Asia because of population growth. On average, poverty declined in fast-growing countries and increased in countries experiencing stagnation or contraction.

Prospects for 2015

Projections indicate that, if developing countries’ average per capita gross domestic product (GDP) were to grow at a sustained rate of 3.7 percent ("base case" in the graphs)--higher than the 1990s’ average of 1.8 percent and the 2.3 percent average of the low case used for the graphs--the global incidence of absolute poverty could decline from 23 percent in 1998 to 13 percent in 2015. The number of poor could drop from 1.2 billion to less than 800 million. But many countries, especially in Africa, would still not reach the goal of halving poverty by 2015.

The International Development Goals: A Particular Challenge for Africa

• Life expectancy decreased, on average, from 50 years in 1987 to 47 years in 1999, largely under the devastating impact of HIV/AIDS; in hardest-hit countries such as Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, life expectancy fell by more than 10 years.
• Child mortality increased from 155 per 1,000 in 1990 to 161 per 1,000 in 1999; it declined in all other regions.
• Health-care systems, weakened by conflict, poor management, and the impact of HIV/AIDS, are finding themselves unable to cope with traditional illnesses, and malaria and tuberculosis continue to kill millions.
• Gross primary school enrollment rates declined between 1980 and the mid-1990s; nine countries still reported net primary enrollment rates of less than 50 percent in the 1990s, with even lower rates for girls.

But breaking the cycle of impoverishment is possible: in countries such as Ethiopia, Ghana, Mauritania, and Uganda, sustained economic recovery and stability have helped reduce poverty and improve living conditions.