Policies that foster local accountability and social mobility may be conducive not only to rapid development but also to personal efficacy and rapid fertility decline.
Within a short span of human history, a secular decline in fertility has taken place around the world. The timing and pace of this decline correspond broadly with changes in sociopolitical institutions in different parts of the world.
Das Gupta hypothesizes that this shift in childbearing behavior is related to cognitive changes wrought by the move from deeply hierarchical sociopolitical institutions to more egalitarian institutions of modern governance. These changes have enabled socioeconomic mobility and improved people's ability to shape their own lives, internalizing more of the positive and negative implications of their decisions, including those about childbearing.
Recent work in development economics argues that policies that foster local accountability are the most conducive to rapid development. Das Gupta argues that they also foster personal efficacy and rapid fertility decline.
If true, her hypotheses indicate that one can expect development and fertility decline to be associated. Some policy environments may lead to "win-win" situations of rapid development and fertility decline, while others may generate "lose-lose" outcomes.
This paper—a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to study social institutions and development outcomes. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Monica Das Gupta, room MC3-579, telephone 202-473-1983, fax 202-522-1153, Internet address mdasgupta@worldbank.org. (24 pages)
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