For firms, the single most important determinant of capital spending appears to be cash flow. Firm managers care more about cash flow and cost of capital than about stock market signals and level of output.
In the United States, gross business investments in plant and equipment (fixed investments) constitute only about 10 percent of GNP, but such investments may represent GNP's most important component because (1) plant and equipment have a long-term effect on the economy's productive capacity, (2) changes in investment spending directly affect levels of employment and workers' incomes in durable goods industries, and (3) supply and demand are sensitive to changes in investment, which is the most volatile component of GNP.
Economists have long been concerned about what — in the economy, the industry, and the firm — determines investments in capital spending. Using a panel of data for U.S. manufacturing firms for 197290, Samuel compares five theories of investment: accelerator theory, cash flow theory (liquidity model, managerial model, and information-theoretic model), neoclassical theory, modified neoclassical (Bischoff) theory, and Q theory.
If the results from cross-section regressions can be viewed as representing the long-term equilibrium, the single most important determinant of capital spending appears to be cash flow.
Apparently, managers care more about cash flow and cost of capital than about stock market signals and the level of output. And at the firm level, managerial perceptions about fundamentals are more important than market perceptions. For managers, the stock market may be a side show to capital spending decisions.
To generalize in a way that might be useful for developing countries: Financial decisions at the firm level are closely linked to real decisions in the economy. Internal finance is the most important source of funds, and capital spending is the most important use of funds, so there is a close relationship betwen real and financial decisions.
This paper — a product of the Operations Policy Group, Operations Policy Department — is part of a larger effort in the department to disseminate results of policy analysis. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Cherian Samuel, room MC10-362, telephone 202-473-0802, fax 202-522-3253, Internet address csamuel@worldbank.org. (51 pages)
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