The Global Dracunculiasis Eradication Campaign has brought about a remarkable decline in the incidence of dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease, in the countries in which it was endemic. Under conservative assumptions about the average incapacitation caused by Guinea worm infection (five weeks), the campaign has shown an estimated economic rate of return of 29 percent.
Dracunculiasis (or Guinea worm disease) was endemic in several African countries as well as in India, Pakistan, and Yemen. The past decade, however, has seen a remarkable decline in the incidence of dracunculiasis as a result of the Global Dracunculiasis Eradication Campaign.
Kim, Tandon, and Ruiz-Tiben compare spending on the eradication campaign with estimates of increased agricultural production resulting from reductions in infection-related morbidity as a result of the program.
Using a project horizon of 1987-98, they calculate the economic rate of return as 29 percent, under conservative assumptions about the average incapacitation caused by Guinea worm infection (five weeks).
After 1998, Sudan is projected to be the only country in which the disease will remain endemic. The authors' results indicate that for economic returns in Sudan to be consistent with those in other countries where the disease was endemic, eradication must be completed in Sudan at the very latest by 2001.
This paper—a product of the Africa Human Development Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to use economic analysis to improve the quality of health projects. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Aehyung Kim, room J10-046, telephone 202-473-5029, fax 202-522-3157, Internet address akim@worldbank.org. (16 pages)
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