1772. What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data

Alexander S. P. Pfaff
(May 1997)

Road network expansion is strongly associated with increased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Pfaff analyzes the determinants of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Using a model of optimal land use, he derives and estimates an equation for deforestation using (1) country-level data for 1978-88 and (2) measures of deforestation from satellite images.

The evidence suggests that:

•  Increased road density in a county leads to more deforestation there and in neighboring counties.

•  Development projects were associated with deforestation in the 1970s but not in the 1980s.

•  The greater the distance from markets south of the Amazon, the less the deforestation.

•  Better soil quality leads to more deforestation.

The model results for government provision of credit were mixed across specifications.

Population density, the primary explanatory variable in most previous empirical work, was significant when it was the sole explanatory variable but was much less important when other variables were factored in.

This paper — a product of the Environment, Infrastructure, and Agriculture Division, Policy Research Department — is part of the department's ongoing work on deforestation and changes in land use. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Anna Marie Maranon, room N10-037, telephone 202-473-9074, fax 202-522-3230, Internet address prdei@worldbank.org. (47 pages)

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