For information on how to order the World Bank publications reviewed in this issue, see page 16.
The massive migration of people from rural to urban areas is the most spectacular demographic upheaval that Africa has experienced in recent decades. The growth of Africa's cities has outstripped local capacities of management, absorption, and financing. Yet cities do not have to be a drain on the national economy-instead, they can add new dynamism to the process of economic growth. This book surveys 25 years of experience in the urban development sector in francophone Africa and suggests an agenda for the future, focusing on such fundamental questions as:
A wide gap still exists between Western concepts and their application in the formerly socialist countries during transition. Most Western models in financial management make assumptions about the efficiency and stability of markets and the signals that can be obtained. They also assume that traditional accounting information is available and can be used for management purposes. Since standard assumptions are not valid in most formerly socialist countries, a new paradigm is needed to manage the finance function in a transition economy experiencing hyperinflation. This book describes the adaptations of financial techniques as it reviews standard financial concepts and tools, adjusts them when necessary to the unique conditions in the formerly socialist enterprises, and then presents the restructuring context and some strategies that are based on the application of these tools.
This article looks at an innovative rural credit program in Indonesia. By using simple and largely replicable techniques, the Village Bank System of Bank Rakyat Indonesia has generated enormous profits and demonstrated that financial services can be extended to millions of low-income rural clients without relying on subsidies.
This article shows that developing countries suffer from a shortage of long-term credit. The problem appears to stem from inadequate financial, legal, and institutional development; firm characteristics; and macroeconomic factors. The analysis shows that the availability of long-term finance is associated with higher productivity, suggesting that the shortage of long-term credit in the developing world is retarding growth.
Moving from price-based subsidization to less distortional income support represents a step in the right direction for the agricultural sectors of developing economies. Direct income support programs have many shortcomings, however, as recently introduced programs in the European Union, Mexico, and the United States reveal.
Self-targeted programs in South Africa and Tunisia reveal that although such programs can improve the distribution of food subsidies to the poorest members of society, their power to alleviate poverty and reduce income disparities is limited by preference patterns, income inequality, and the size of the individual subsidies.
This article examines the costs and benefits of targeted public spending programs aimed at alleviating poverty. It shows that although targeting can increase a program's effectiveness, it is not a cure-all; reducing poverty calls for broadly targeted social sector spending combined with narrower targeting of cash and in-kind transfers to specific groups.
The failure of developing countries to subject their procurement policies to the World Trade Organization's voluntary rules on government procurement may reflect unfamiliarity with the agreement, the perception that the potential payoffs are small, the desire to discriminate in favor of domestic firms, or the successful opposition of groups that benefit from the current regime.
This article suggests a strategy for reforming programs that provide income maintenance support to the elderly. The proposed strategy consists of a mandatory public pillar, a private mandatory savings plan, and a voluntary savings system. Three variations of the model-the Latin American model, the OECD model, and the Swedish notional account model-are currently being implemented.
Within a five-year period (1991-95) the government of Thailand introduced a series of initiatives that resulted in the elimination of leaded gasoline and reduction of ambient lead by a factor of 10. This report describes the strategies the government employed: educating about the dangers of airborne lead, setting a lower at-pump price for unleaded gasoline, helping the oil companies establish a system to distribute unleaded gasoline throughout the country, conducting monitoring and follow-up studies, and adjusting environmental regulations as necessary to support these policies.
Albania provides a small amount of social assistance to nearly 20 percent of its population through a system that allows a degree of community discretion in determining distribution. This study investigates the poverty targeting of this program. It indicates that relative to other safety net programs in low-income countries, social assistance in Albania is fairly well targeted to the poor.
A poverty line helps focus the attention of governments and civil society on the living conditions of the poor. This paper offers a critical overview of alternative approaches to setting poverty lines. In reviewing the methods found in practice, the paper tries to throw light on, and go some way toward resolving, ongoing debates about poverty measurement, emphasizing the debates that would appear to have greatest bearing on policy discussions.
Working Papers disseminate the findings of work in progress and encourage the exchange of ideas among Bank staff and all others interested in development issues.Working Papers can be downloaded from the Website http://www.worldbank.org/html/dec/Publications/Workpapers/home.html or requested from the contact person indicated at the Bank's main address.
Capital Outflow from the Agriculture Sector in Thailand
Junichi Yamada
WPS 1910 * Contact Emily Khine,
room MC3-341, fax 202-522-3518.The Internationalization of Financial Services in Asia
Stijn Claessens and Tom Glaessner
WPS 1911 * Contact Rose Vo,
room MC10-628, fax 202-522-2031.Pay and Grade Differentials at the World Bank
Deon Filmer, Margaret Grosh, Elizabeth King, and Dominique van de Walle
WPS 1912 * Contact Cynthia Bernardo,
room MC2-501, fax 202-522-1154.The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey
Oya Celasun
WPS 1913 * Contact Kari Labrie,
room MC3-347, fax 202-522-3518.Distinguishing between Types of Data and Methods of Collecting Them
Jesko Hentschel
WPS 1914 * Contact PREM Advisory Service,
room MC4-501, fax 202-522-1135.Distortionary Effects of State Trading in Agriculture: Issues for the Next Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations
Merlinda Ingco and Francis Ng
WPS 1915 * Contact Maria Chona Fernandez,
room MC3-610, fax 202-522-1159.The Size, Origins, and Character of Mongolia's Informal Sector during the Transition
James H. Anderson
WPS 1916 * Contact Paulina Sintim-Aboagye,
room MC3-422, fax 202-522-1155.Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility
Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and Enrica Detragiache
WPS 1917 * Contact Paulina Sintim-Aboagye,
room MC3-422, fax 202-522-1155.How Does Foreign Entry Affect the Domestic Banking Market?
Stijn Claessens, Asli Demirg&uumt;ç-Kunt, and Harry Huizinga
WPS 1918 * Contact Rose Vo,
room MC10-628, fax 202-522-2031.The Empirical Effects of Performance Contracts: Evidence from China
Mary Shirley and Lixin Colin Xu
WPS 1919 * Contact Paulina Sintim-Aboagye,
room MC3-422, fax 202-522-1155.Education and Earnings in a Transition Economy (Vietnam)
Peter R. Moock, Harry Anthony Patrinos, and Meera Venkataraman
WPS 1920 * Contact Miriam Christian,
room G8-058, fax 202- 522-3233.Making Voice Work: The Report Card on Bangalore's Public Service
Samuel Paul
WPS 1921 * Contact Cynthia Bernardo,
room MC2-501, fax 202-522-1154.Regional Groupings among Microstates
Soamiely Andriamananjara
WPS 1922 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.When Vintage Technology Makes Sense: Matching Imports to Skills
Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Isidro Soloaga, and Wendy Takacs
WPS 1923 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.Voucher Privatization with Investment Funds: An Institutional Analysis
David Ellerman
WPS 1924 *Contact Margaret Murray,
room MC4-333, fax 202-522-1157.Half a Century of Development Economics: A Review Based on the Handbook of Development Economics
Jean Waelbroeck
WPS 1925 *Contact Jane Sweeney,
room MC4-394, fax 202-522-0304.Do Budgets Really Matter? Evidence from Public Spending on Education
and Health in Uganda Emmanuel Ablo and Ritva Reinikka
WPS 1926 * Contact Kathryn Rivera,
room J10-281, fax 202-473-8262.Revenue-Productive Income Tax Structures and Tax Reforms in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Bulgaria
Fareed M. A. Hassan
WPS 1927 * Contact Alison Panton,
room H11-033, fax 202- 477-0816.Combining Census and Survey Data to Study Spatial Dimensions of Poverty
Jesko Hentschel, Jean Olson Lanjouw, Peter Lanjouw, and Javier Poggi
WPS 1928 * Contact Peter Lanjouw,
room MC3-555, fax 202-522-1153.A Database of World Infrastructure Stocks, 1950-95
David Canning
WPS 1929 * Contact Awatif Abuzid,
room F4P-220, fax 202-522-3227.The Main Determinants of Inflation in Albania
Ilker Domaç and Carlos Elbirt
WPS 1930 * Contact Fran Lewis,
room MC8-168, fax 202-522-1784.The Cost and Performance of Paid Agricultural Extension Services: The Case of Agricultural Technology Transfer in Nicaragua
Ariel Dinar and Gabriel Keynan
WPS 1931 * Contact Fulvia Toppin,
room S8-220, fax 202-522-1142.Air Pollution and Health Effects: A Study of Respiratory Illness among Children in Santiago, Chile
Bart D. Ostro, Gunnar S. Eskeland, Tarhan Feyzioglu, and Jose Miguel Sanchez
WPS 1932 * Contact Cynthia Bernardo,
room MC2-501, fax 202-522-1154.The 1997 Pension Reform in Mexico
Gloria Grandolini and Luis Cerda
WPS 1933 * Contact Cara Zappala,
room I5-074, fax 202-458-7945.WTO Accession for Countries in Transition
Constantine Michalopoulos
WPS 1934 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.Explaining the Increase in Inequality during the Transition
Branko Milanovic
WPS 1935 * Contact Grace Evans,
room MC3-568, fax 202-522-1153.Determinants of Transient and Chronic Poverty: Evidence from Rural China
Jyotsna Jalan and Martin Ravallion
WPS 1936 * Contact Patricia Sader,
room MC3-632, fax 202-522-1153.Aid, the Incentive Regime, and Poverty Reduction
Craig Burnside and David Dollar
WPS 1937 * Contact Emily Khine,
room MC3-347, fax 202-522-3518.What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programs?
David Dollar and Jakob Svensson
WPS 1938 * Contact Emily Khine,
room MC3-347, fax 202-522-3518.Second Thoughts on Second Moments: Panel Evidence on Asset-Based Models of Currency Crises
Arturo J. Galindo and William F. Maloney
WPS 1939 * Contact Marta Cervantes,
room I8-095, fax 202-522-0054.The Structure of Labor Markets in Developing Countries: Time Series Evidence on Competing Views
William F. Maloney
WPS 1940 * Contact Marta Cervantes,
room I8-095, fax 202-522-0054.Are Labor Markets in Developing Countries Dualistic?
William F. Maloney
WPS 1941 * Contact Marta Cervantes,
room I8-095, fax 202-522-0054.Poverty Correlates and Indicator-Based Targeting in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
Christiaan Grootaert and Jeanine Braithwaite
WPS 1942 * Contact Gracie Ochieng,
room MC5-158, fax 202-522-3247.The Implications of Hyperbolic Discounting for Project Evaluation
Maureen Cropper and David Laibson
WPS 1943 * Contact Anna Maranon,
room MC2-533, fax 202-522-3230.Detecting Price Links in the World Cotton Market
John Baffes and Mohamed I. Ajwad
WPS 1944 * Contact John Baffes,
room MC3-545, fax 202-522-1151.Evaluating a Targeted Social Program When Placement Is Decentralized
Martin Ravallion and Quentin Wodon
WPS 1945 * Contact Patricia Sader,
room MC3-632, fax 202-522-1153.Estonia: The Challenge of Financial Integration
Carlos Cavalcanti and Daniel Oks
WPS 1946 * Contact Linda Osborne,
room H11-109, fax 202-477-1440.Patterns of Economic Growth: Hills, Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains
Lant Pritchett
WPS 1947 * Contact Sheila Fallon,
room MC3-638, fax 202-522-1153.Comparative Advantage and the Cross-Section of Business Cycles
Aart Kraay and Jaume Ventura
WPS 1948 * Contact Aart Kraay,
room MC3-369, fax 202-522-3518.Education and Earnings Inequality in Mexico
Ulrich Lächler
WPS 1949 * Contact Carmen Lazcano,
room I4-135, fax 202-522-2113.Free Trade and Deep Integration: Antidumping and Antitrust in Regional Agreements
Bernard Hoekman
WPS 1950 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.Crisis Management in Argentina during the 1994-95 Mexican Crisis: How Did Markets React?
Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky and Sergio L. Schmukler
WPS 1951 * Contact Emily Khine,
room MC3-347, fax 202-522-3518.Enterprise Isolation Programs in Transition Economies
Simeon Djankov
WPS 1952 * Contact Rose Vo,
room MC10-628, fax 202-522-2031.Trade Policies and Incentives in Indian Agriculture: Methodology, Background Statistics and Protection, and Incentive Indicators, 1965-95-Background Paper 1, Sugar and Sugarcane
Garry Pursell and Anju Gupta
WPS 1953 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.Politicians and Firms in Seven Central and Eastern European Countries
Stijn Claessens and Simeon Djankov
WPS 1954 * Contact Rose Vo,
room MC10-628, fax 202-522-2031.Appraising Workfare Programs
Martin Ravallion
WPS 1955 * Contact Patricia Sader,
room MC3-638, fax 202-522-1153.Benefit Incidence and the Timing of Program Capture
Peter Lanjouw and Martin Ravallion
WPS 1956 * Contact Patricia Sader,
room MC3-638, fax 202-522-1153.Bidding for Concessions
Michael Klein
WPS 1957 * Contact Jocelyn Dytang,
room Q7-183, fax 202-522-3481.Total Strangers or Soul Mates? Antidumping and Competition Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean
J. Luis Guasch and Sarath Rajapatirana
WPS 1958 * Contact Joy Troncoso,
room I5-059, fax 202-522-2106.Is There a Credit Crunch in East Asia?
Wei Ding, Ilker Domaç, and Giovanni Ferri
WPS 1959 * Contact Flavia Fernandes,
room MC8-134, fax 202-522-1557.Calm after the Storms: Income Distribution in Chile, 1987-94
Francisco H. G. Ferreira and Julie A. Litchfield
WPS 1960 * Contact Grace Ilogon,
room MC4-644, fax 202-522-3283.Protecting the Environment and the Poor: A Public Goods Framework Applied to Indonesia
Gunnar S. Eskeland and Chingying Kong
WPS 1961 * Contact Cynthia Bernardo,
room MC2-501, fax 202-522-1154.The Political Economy of Privatization: An Empirical Analysis of Bank Privatization in Argentina
George R. G. Clarke and Robert Cull
WPS 1962 * Contact Paulina Sintim-Aboagye,
room MC3-422, fax 202-522-1155.Commodity Risk Management and Development
Donald F. Larson, Panos Varangis, and Nanae Yabuki
WPS 1963 * Contact Pauline Kokila,
room MC3-544, fax 202-522-1150.Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico
Ulrich Lächler and David Alan Aschauer
WPS 1964 * Contact Carmen Lazcano,
room I4-135, fax 202-522-2113.Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?
James Tybout
WPS 1965 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.Sulfur Dioxide Control by Electric Utilities: What Are the Gains from Trade?
Curtis Carlson, Dallas Burtraw, Maureen Cropper, and Karen L. Palmer
WPS 1966 * Contact Tourya Tourougui,
room MC2-522, fax 202-522-3230.Agriculture and the Macroeconomy
Maurice Schiff and Alberto Valdés
WPS 1967 * Contact Alberto Valdés,
room S8-015, fax 202-522-3307.The Economics and Law of Rent Control
Kaushik Basu and Patrick Emerson
WPS 1968 * Contact Michelle Mason,
room MC4-338, fax 202-522-1158.Protecting the Poor in Vietnam's Emerging Market Economy
Dominique van de Walle
WPS 1969 * Contact Cynthia Bernardo,
room MC2-501, fax 202-522-1154.Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth in a Small Open Economy: A Quantitative Assessment
Thomas F. Rutherford and David G. Tarr
WPS 1970 * Contact Lili Tabada,
room MC3-333, fax 202-522-1159.
From the responses to 25 survey questions, the team developed five quantitative indicators of institutional uncertainty: predictability of rule making, reliability of the judiciary, security of persons and property, political stability, and corruption. These measures were used to construct a summary indicator of policy credibility, which was found to be strongly correlated with investment (figure 1).
The database resulting from the survey contains data for 67 countries covering most geographic regions of the world. The database can be downloaded from the World Bank Website (under http://www.worldbank.org/html/prdmg/grthweb). Questions about the database or requests for copies of it can be sent to Pablo Zoido-Lobatón at the Bank's main address or at pzoidolobaton@worldbank.org. An expanded data set, containing data for five countries (Brazil and four East Asian countries) not included in the main database, is available at a University of Basel Website (www.unibas.ch/wwz/wifor/survey).
In a World Bank study Alex Cukierman and Steven Webb tested this hypothesis, creating several proxies for central bank independence based on the relationships among five types of changes in government and the turnover in the position of central bank governor. The proxy variables and the results of the analysis are reported in the World Bank Economic Review (vol. 9, no. 3, 1995), and now the underlying data on the dates of political and central bank changes are also available. Data for 67 OECD and developing countries were collected for 1950-89. Most Eastern Bloc countries were excluded, as were countries that achieved political independence or established a central bank after 1950. The data set is available in Excel workbook form on diskette and can be obtained by contacting Steven Webb at the Bank's main address or at swebb@worldbank.org.