Projections of China's grain situation in other recent studies vary wildly. While some predict that China will import massive quantities, exhausting world supplies and driving up prices, others believe that China will become a grain exporter. Huang, Rozelle, and Rosegrant use an integrated model of supply of and demand for grain through the year 2020 and carefully account for structural changes now taking place in China. They show that China is likely to rely on world markets to meet a small portion of domestic demand for grain but will require significantly less than some suggest. The IFPRI study projects that China will need to buy 24 million metric tons of grain from abroad by 2000--about 25 percent higher than its historic high--but that imports will then stabilize.

Several factors will help keep China's grain imports from rising too high. First, China's leaders are concerned with maintaining near self-sufficiency in agricultural production. Second, huge imports would raise prices, reducing China's ability to buy more grain. Third, fluctuations in foreign currency markets could make imported grain less affordable for China. Fourth, there is a limit on how much imported grain could be moved through China's ports and transportation systems.

In the end, the study shows, China's grain balances will depend on actions taken by the country's leaders with regard to population growth and investment in agriculture and other facilities and institutions.

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)