The World Bank Group and the Government of Zambia recently completed a Roadmap on how the country can leverage its large copper resources to drive economic growth. Copper mining in Zambia is not new—it’s been around for over a century. Yet, despite copper contributing 15% of GDP and more than 70% of exports, production has been stuck at around 800,000 metric tons per year since 1969. That could soon change. With global demand rising, the government has ambitious plans to triple copper production by 2031. Big mining names like Anglo American, First Quantum Minerals, Barrick, and newcomer Kobold are already investing heavily. Tripling production in just six years will be a stretch, but output is already climbing.
The question is: Will Zambia have the skilled workforce needed to fill the jobs this expansion will create?
Analysis for the Roadmap looked at the kinds of jobs that will be created across copper production, processing, and downstream value addition, and how ready Zambia’s universities and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions are to supply the necessary skills.
What jobs could be created through the expansion? If production targets are met, direct mining employment could jump fourfold—from 56,000 to 200,000 jobs—plus 300,000 indirect and induced jobs could be added to the wider economy. Many of these roles require TVET-level qualifications.
Globally, the typical mine workforce breaks down like this (Figure below):
- 60% technicians/craftspeople/artisans (with a TVET diploma or certification) – e.g., heavy equipment mechanics, fitters, welders, electricians, safety inspectors, haul truck drivers;
- 25% managers and professionals (with a degree or diploma)- e.g., mine manager, survey engineers, geotechnical engineers, metallurgists, environmental engineers;
- 15% elementary workers (with a secondary education certificate)- e.g., general laborers, security, cleaning and catering staffs.
The TVET bottleneck - challenges in access to and quality of training
Here’s the challenge: if copper mining expands as planned, Zambia’s TVET system will not produce enough qualified graduates to meet the demand for technicians, craftspeople, and artisans, with the largest gaps at the technician level. There are simply not enough training institutions in Zambia offering technician and technologist level training courses because they are expensive to deliver. Instead, most TVET institutions focus on delivering cheaper craft and trade programs. Further, only a handful of public TVET institutions have effective partnerships with mining firms, and while some companies run their own training facilities, the overall output remains far too low. In 2023, just 800 students graduated from institutions meeting quality standards recognized by the mining industry and only one in five had the qualifications required for technician or artisan-level jobs—a fraction of the thousands needed each year as the sector grows.
The Roadmap suggests the government could consider four complementary options to strengthen technician and artisan training: (i) introduce incentives for industry–training provider collaboration on curriculum, instructor training, and apprenticeships; (ii) provide public financing through grants or training vouchers for industry-led training centers; (iii) concentrate resources in specialized centers of excellence operated with industry; and (iv) expand student loan schemes to cover higher-level technical training.
Raising the bar in university level mining education
At the higher education level, Zambia has two globally reputable universities—Copperbelt University (CBU) and the University of Zambia (UNZA) —that produce graduates in mining engineering and related engineering fields. CBU, supported by the World Bank, has been positioned as an African Centre of Excellence for mining. Graduates from both universities (about 320 annually from CBU between 2018 and 2022; graduate numbers for UNZA were not available), are in demand not only in Zambia but across Africa, the Middle East, and Australia.
Both universities provide strong foundational mining and engineering related skills, but mining companies have expressed concern that the universities are not keeping their training curricula, facilities and equipment up-to-date and aligned with the mining industries’ changing technologies and processes. To remain relevant, CBU and UNZA should consider: (i) updating curricula to reflect new technologies; (ii) providing instructor training in the latest industry practices; (iii) expanding work-based learning for students and faculty.
What about value addition?
Adding value to copper—turning it into wires, electrical panels, batteries, or photovoltaic panels—can, in theory, create many more jobs. Global estimates for minerals processing and refining indicate that employment numbers range between 1,500-2,000 jobs per $1 billion investment. In downstream manufacturing such as battery components or wiring, employment can be higher, with 3,000-5,000 jobs per $1 billion investment. In Zambia, however, downstream copper manufacturing is still small and capital-intensive, and few jobs are created. Production is mostly limited to copper wires and cables, with only a handful of machine operators.
So why isn’t Zambia doing more on downstream copper value addition? It’s a combination of factors. Firstly, it’s very hard to compete with China that has the biggest market share globally on value added products from energy transition minerals, partly because it has subsidized the sector for years. Secondly, China has a critical mass of highly skilled engineers and scientists that drive innovation in new technologies, to manufacture better and cheaper products. Unless Zambia significantly boosts its high-level skills base—especially in research and development—and offers targeted incentives for manufacturers, it will remain confined to upstream and midstream copper activities.
The youth and gender challenge
Globally, mining struggles to attract young people and women. The perception of mining as a dirty, dangerous, rural industry deters many potential recruits. When young people and women do join the industry, there is fierce competition for talent, driving up salaries, especially as skill sets are applicable to other sectors. Attracting and retaining them into mining jobs is a global
challenge that is being addressed through various interventions, such as: (i) changing perceptions of mining careers; (ii) promoting safe, modern work environments; and (iii) creating pathways for women and young people into technical and leadership roles.
Seizing the moment
Zambia is at a turning point with copper production set to grow and with it the chance to create thousands of jobs. But without urgent action to align education and training systems with industry needs, much of this opportunity could be lost—or filled by workers from outside the country.
The World Bank, with support from the Extractives Global Programmatic Support (EGPS) Trust Fund under the Resilient and Inclusive Supply Chain Enhancement Partnership (RISE), is working with Government of Zambia and other African countries to harness energy transition minerals to drive inclusive and sustainable growth. The World Bank is also supporting the Ministry of Technology and Science in Zambia to strengthen its skills development system in partnership with industry.
This feature was written by: Elizabeth Ninan Dulvy, Martin Lokanc, Margo Hoftijzer
