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Syria’s Economic Outlook- Fall 2016


Syria has experienced devastating conflict since 2011, which has resulted in a tragic human and socioeconomic situation. Violence continues to disrupt the production and distribution of goods and services, and impedes economic activity. Physical harm, poor nutrition and health services, unemployment, poverty, and the breakdown of public service delivery will continue to weigh heavily on the population. The medium-term macroeconomic prospects hinge on containing the war and ultimately finding a political resolution to the conflict.

Outlook
 
Macroeconomic and poverty projections are complicated by the uncertainty about the duration and severity of the conflict. Nevertheless, real GDP is estimated to continue to contract in 2016 by around 4% on account of a worsening of the conflict in key centers of economic activity such as Aleppo and as oil and gas production and non-oil economic activity continue to suffer from the conflict. Inflation is likely to remain very high at around 25% in 2016, because of continued exchange rate depreciation, trade disruptions, and shortages. Current account and fiscal deficits are also projected to remain large, broadly around the levels of 2015. Medium-term macroeconomic prospects hinge on containing the war and finding a political resolution to the conflict, and rebuilding the damaged infrastructure and social capital.

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