Poland successfully managed its integration into the European Union since joining in 2004, and during the 2008-09 global financial crises it was the only member to experience growth. Poland is a high-income country with a large and diversified domestic economy.
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Dramatic climate changes and weather extremes already affecting millions of lives, but solutions exist WASHINGTON, November 23, 2014 – As the planet warms further, heat-waves and other weather ex... Show More +tremes that today occur once in hundreds of years, if ever, would become the “new climate normal,” creating a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources shift, sea-levels rise, and the livelihoods of millions of people are put at risk, according to a new scientific report released today by the World Bank Group.In parts of Central Asia and the Western Balkans specifically, unprecedented heat extremes could occur in over 60 percent of summer months and drought risk could increase by 20 percent in a 4°C warmer world, the report finds. At the same time, projections suggest an increase in riverine flood risk, mainly in spring and winter, due to more intense snow melt in spring and heavier rainfall in the winter months. Climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable because the Earth’s atmospheric system is locked into warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, the report said. Even very ambitious mitigation action taken today will not change this, it said.“Today’s report confirms what scientists have been saying – past emissions have set an unavoidable course to warming over the next two decades, which will affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people the most,” said Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group. “We’re already seeing record-breaking temperatures occurring more frequently, rainfall increasing in intensity in some places, and drought-prone regions like the Mediterranean becoming drier.”“These changes make it more difficult to reduce poverty and put in jeopardy the livelihoods of millions of people,” Kim said. “They also have serious consequences for development budgets, and for institutions like the World Bank Group, where our investments, support and advice must now also build resilience and help affected populations adapt.”Dramatic climate changes and weather extremes are already affecting people around the world, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting water security at risk, according to the report, Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, the report said.“The good news is that we can take action that reduces the rate of climate change and promotes economic growth, ultimately stopping our journey down this dangerous path,” Kim said. “World leaders and policy makers should embrace affordable solutions like carbon pricing and policy choices that shift investment to clean public transport, cleaner energy and more energy efficient factories, buildings and appliances.”Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal is an analysis of likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial levels on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability across Latin-America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. It builds on a 2012 Bank report, which concluded the world would warm by 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if we did not take concerted action immediately. The report, prepared for the World Bank Group by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, reveals how rising global temperatures are increasingly threatening the health and livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations, crucially magnifying problems each region is struggling with today.A common threat across the three regions is the risks posed by heat extremes. State‐of‐the‐art climate modeling shows that “highly unusual” heat extremes, similar to the heat-waves experienced in the US in 2012 and Russia and Central Asia in 2010, increase rapidly under a 4°C emission pathway.It also reveals that the risks of reduced crop yields and production losses for the regions studied increase significantly above 1.5°C to 2°C warming. It notes that declines in agricultural productivity will also have impacts outside core producer regions, with strong repercussions on food security, and may negatively affect economic growth and development, social stability and well‐being.Key findings across the regions include:Latin America and the Caribbean: Heat extremes and changing precipitation patterns will have adverse effects on agricultural productivity, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. In Brazil, without additional adaptation, crop yields could decrease by up to 70 percent for soybean and up to 50 percent for wheat at 2°C warming by 2050. Ocean acidification, sea level rise, tropical cyclones and temperature changes will impact coastal livelihoods, tourism, health, food and water security, particularly in the Caribbean. Melting glaciers would be a hazard for Andean cities.Middle East and North Africa: A large increase in heat-waves combined with warmer average temperatures will put intense pressure on already scarce water resources, with major consequences for human consumption and regional food security. In Jordan, Egypt, and Libya, crop yields could decrease by up to 30 percent at 1.5 to 2°C warming by 2050. Migration and climate‐related pressure on resources may also increase the risk of conflict.Western Balkans and Central Asia: Reduced water availability in some places will become a threat as increases in temperatures head toward 4°C. Melting glaciers in Central Asia and shifts in the timing of water flows will reduce the amount of water available in summer months and increase the risk of torrential floods. In the Western Balkans, climate extremes will pose major risks to agricultural systems, energy, and human health. A 2°C warming would already entail significant impacts, such as in Macedonia where yield losses are projected up to 50 percent for maize, wheat, vegetables and grapes by 2050.The report also warns that, if warming continues unabated, irreversible changes on a large scale could be triggered. In northern Russia, forest dieback and thawing of permafrost threaten to amplify global warming as stored carbon and methane are released into the atmosphere, giving rise to a self-amplifying feedback loop. Methane emissions could increase by 20 to 30 percent across Russia at 2°C warming by 2050.Laura Tuck, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia, said, “From the Western Balkans to Siberia, from Europe to Central Asia, the impacts of extreme climate events, such as floods, droughts, and forest fires, are already being felt, all with significant human and economic cost, as well as environmental impact. Across the Europe and Central Asia region, countries are requesting our assistance to reduce vulnerability to climate change and move towards climate-smart development. For example, we are supporting Romania in operationalizing its national climate change strategy. We are working with Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina following the devastating floods that hit earlier this year to strengthen their disaster response preparedness and disaster recovery capacity. We are also working with the Russian Federation to improve forest fire prevention; and we are supporting the countries of Central Asia to establish regional collaboration to enhance climate resilience.”“The report makes crystal clear that we cannot continue down the current path of unchecked, growing emissions. Leaders must step up and take the necessary decisions on how we manage our economies towards clean growth and resilient development,” said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Group Vice President and Special Envoy for Climate Change. “Urgent and substantial technological, economic, institutional and behavioral change is needed to reverse present trends. Economic development and climate protection can be complementary. We need the political will to make this happen.” Show Less -
Interviewed by Leszek Baj 2014-11-12Civil law contracts are abused, and their prevalence results mainly from lower labor costs rather than from a non-typical nature of work assignment as such. This le... Show More +ads to labor market duality, i.e. a situation where alike jobs are divided into better and worse ones. Leszek Baj: You used to work in Turkey. Now you are the Manager of World Bank Office in Warsaw. What are your first impressions from Poland?Marina Wes: I relocated to Poland in August. My family and I came here by car. The first things that struck me was the number of people who were selling some produce by the side of the road: fruit, mushrooms. My first impression was that the people were poor. But I soon realized that they were simply very industrious. Another observation I have is about bureaucracy, in a broad meaning of the word – it still remains an issue, despite some progress in curtailing the red tape. I was surprised how much trouble it took me to get Internet connection in the house. In Turkey it was easier. Bureaucracy and protracted procedures – e.g. in getting construction permits – have been long known as Poland’s weakness for many years. One can clearly see that looking at Doing Business ranking, for instance.In the latest edition of the report Poland was ranked at a very good, 32nd position in a group of 189 economies, but indeed it was ranked 137th in the category of getting construction permits. This shows that there still is a lot to be done if you want to maintain fast economic growth in the longer term.What else is there to be done?Let’s take labor market activity of Polish people, for example. Itis very low. Reforms are needed to make labor market more flexible and to boost employment and labor market activity. Some people say that our labor market is quite flexible because of civil law contracts, inter alia, which are sometimes referred to as ‘junk contracts’. I’d rather we didn’t refer to civil law contracts as ‘junk contracts’. Economists use the term of an ‘atypical contract’. Such contracts are used in many countries and they are b applicable to work assignments of unusual or irregular nature, for example assignments limited in time or focused on a specific task, such that can be done outside of the workplace and at different hours.Having said that, I admit you have a point here: in the Polish context, civil law contracts frequently have little in common with these assumptions. According to the research done recently in the World Bank, civil law contracts are abused, and their prevalence results mainly from lower labor costs rather than from atypical nature of work assignment as such. This leads to labor market duality, i.e. a situation where alike jobs are divided into better and worse ones, which has unfavorable economic and social implications.In that case, what is the alternative?To be able to answer that question one should first consider the counterfactual - what would have happened if such contracts were not used in Poland. Would the people who are hired under civil law contracts be hired based on the Labor Code, or would they become unemployed? Or, perhaps, the grey economy would expand.If such contracts were to be abolished, it might turn out that negative consequences outweigh the positives. In many regions in Poland, especially those with relatively low labor productivity and in the absence of regionally differentiated minimum wage, civil law contracts make it possible to legally hire people who might otherwise be jobless. The way to go is not to abolish civil law contracts, but to reduce the gap in costs generated for the employer by civil law contracts vs. Labor Code contracts. In that context, is it a step in the right direction to impose social security contribution payments on civil law contracts?It is the right step, albeit insufficient. When civil law contracts are charged with social security contribution, the gap in costs between civil law contracts and regular employment contracts may be diminished. This will help fight the abuse, at least to an extent. We also need measures to simplify the Labor Code and make it more flexible, so that employment contracts are more attractive to employers. In the Netherlands, where you come from, or in Germany there is very low unemployment. What can you tell us about flexibility of those labor markets?Labor market in the Netherlands is flexible in the sense of part time work, which makes it easier to combine work with family life and maintain a good work-life balance. In Germany, which struggled with the issue of high unemployment for quite a long time, they have recently introduced so-called mini jobs, which enhance flexibility of employment. In the UK there are ‘zero-hours’ contracts which also give significant degree of flexibility to the employer. Whether we like it or not, greater flexibility of the labor market is unavoidable due to globalization and accompanying competition. Show Less -