Ten Pacific Island countries which are members of the World Bank have a population of about 3.4 million people, scattered across an area equivalent to 15 percent of the globe’s surface, with a development trajectory that will be shaped by their economic geography.
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January 26, 2015Key FindingsAlmost 200 million people moved to urban areas in East Asia from 2000-2010, a figure that would be the world’s sixth-largest population for any single country.Most of East ... Show More +Asia’s population is still non-urban, meaning the region will likely face decades of further urbanization.The Pearl River Delta in China – which includes the cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan – has overtaken Tokyo as the world’s largest urban area in both size and population, with more inhabitants than countries such as Argentina, Australia or Canada.China’s government-implemented urbanization dominates East Asia with 600 of the region’s 869 urban areas located in the country, which also has more than two-thirds of East Asia’s total urban land.East Asia’s urban areas included eight “megacities” with populations over 10 million, 123 large cities with one to 10 million people, and 738 medium and small cities with 100,000 to one million people.The report establishes a direct link between urbanization and income growth, showing how economic output per capita increased throughout the region as the percentage of people living in urban areas went up.Expanding urban areas often cross administrative or political boundaries such as municipal borders, which fragments government management and revenue sources.The rate at which urban areas expanded physically varied widely between countries. Mostly rural countries had the highest spatial expansion rates, with Lao PDR at 7.3 percent and Cambodia at 4.3 percent, while industrialized Japan had the lowest rate of increase at 0.4 percent despite containing the second-largest amount of urban land behind China.Moving ForwardGetting urbanization right will be essential in ensuring that it contributes to the World Bank’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.With most of East Asia’s people living in non-urban areas, rapid urbanization is likely to continue for decades, requiring proactive policies to provide land, housing, and services for the new urban residentsThe report emphasizes the important role of policy makers at the national and municipal levels in ensuring that urbanization proceeds in an economically efficient, sustainable and inclusive manner so that poor people can benefit.Urban planning needs to match physical expansion with access to jobs, affordable housing and shopping, public transportation, and health and education services to ensure equal opportunity for disadvantaged communities.Environmental impacts and risks are a major concern. The report notes that urban expansion brings increased consumption of fossil fuels that contribute to climate change, while a lack of planning can result in poor migrants settling on land prone to natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes.Fragmentation requires a new model of metropolitan governance, and strategies can include in some cases consolidation of authority. In other cases, strengthening local municipalities may be needed to offset too much central authority as part of a tradeoff. Resolving the fragmented management will involve tackling the logistical and political complexities of forging multi-jurisdictional coalitions among participants that may have conflicting priorities.To encourage further research on urbanization, the World Bank is announcing a two-track competition based on this report. One offers a $1,500 prize for the best visualization of the data, while the other seeks proposals for papers further analyzing the information, with winners invited to World Bank headquarters to present their findings. Show Less -
The Stories of Impact series highlights work involving the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) that has helped to reduce developing countries' vulnerability to natura... Show More +l hazards and build communities' resilience.Weathering Future Storms in the SeychellesA damage and loss assessment supported by the World Bank Group and managed by GFDRR led to the development of multi-risk mapping and an extensive review of flood risk financing options for the Indian Ocean nation as it recovered from a cyclone. Read moreDisaster Planning Pays Off in Odisha, IndiaEffective disaster risk management significantly reduced casualties from Cyclone Phailin, and GFDRR and other partners are supporting the strengthening and scaling up of these efforts through the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP). Read moreBuilding Back Better in Tonga after Cyclone Ian Field assessments after Cyclone Ian revealed that properly designed and constructed housing infrastructure prevented more deaths, injuries, and physical damage. That led to a Housing Recovery and Reconstruction policy in Tonga. Read moreStakeholders Engage to Build Belize's Climate ResilienceFacing the risk of climate-related disasters, Belize is working to improve its resilience by transforming the country’s approach to economic and social development with a national plan that cuts across all sectors. Read moreManaging Drought, Sustaining Growth in DjiboutiDjibouti is at particular risk for water shortages and severe flooding, both of which profoundly impact its growing but fragile economic sector. GFDRR is helping the country build resilience. Read moreEnhancing Seismic Preparedness in IstanbulA disaster preparedness program supported by the World Bank Group and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery has helped earthquake-vulnerable Istanbul retrofit or rebuild over 1,000 public buildings. Read moreRapidly Assessing Flood Damage in Uttarakhand, IndiaGFDRR and partners conducted a Joint Rapid Damage Needs Assessment (JRDNA) for the Uttarakhand region soon after the devastating 2013 monsoons, completing a thorough analysis of damage and providing the necessary foundation for recovery efforts to begin. Read moreAssessing Post-Disaster Needs in NigeriaAfter severe flooding in 2012, Nigeria asked GFDRR and other key partners to conduct a comprehensive Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA). Read moreCommunity-Based Disaster Risk Reduction in NigerGFDRR and partners have financed an almost $1 million disaster risk reduction project in Niger to build capacity of local communities for early warning and response. Read moreStrengthening Financial Resilience in the PacificIn response to requests from 15 countries, the World Bank, GFDRR, and other partners formed the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) in 2007 to help mitigate disaster and climate change risk. Read moreDisaster-Proofing the Transport Sector in VietnamThe government of Vietnam, with support from GFDRR and the World Bank, has made important strides in building the resilience of the transport sector against risk from natural disasters and climate change. Read more Show Less -
May 8, 2014KEY FINDINGSIn the last 20 years, East Asia Pacific saw rising productivity amid a brisk structural transformation, with large movements of people into cities and higher output in agricultu... Show More +re, manufacture and services. Countries that were poor a generation ago successfully integrated into the global value chain, taking advantage of low labor costs.The unprecedented economic development in East Asia Pacific has provided jobs that lifted millions of people out of poverty and has been a triumph of working people. The share of the population working or seeking work in most countries, including women, is higher than other nations with similar income levels.Current employment policies, though relatively stringent on paper but poorly enforced in reality, have failed to benefit most workers, favoring prime-aged men in salaried positions at the expense of women, youth and those with low skills. Empirical evidence shows that rising minimum wages in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand disproportionately reduce employment opportunities for women and young people.Across the region, more than 30% of people ages 15 to 24 are completely left out—they have neither a job nor receive any education or training. That creates labor market segmentation and exclusion, as well as a higher risk of social unrest and violence. Meanwhile, rising wages for skilled workers, which benefit from the current policies, have led to higher inequality in some countries.The issue has taken on more urgency recently, as the region’s economic growth is moderating and labor costs are rising. With empirical evidence presented in the report, policy makers are urged to enact labor regulations and social protection policies to benefit all workers, including those in the large informal economy.RECOMMENDATIONSThe region’s economic and demographic changes, as well as its relatively short labor history, present an opportunity for countries to adopt a new lower cost social protection model than countries in regions with long, established policies.It is now time to consolidate growth by enacting social policies that protect people, rather than any particular sector, location or profession. When well-designed, those policies should make sure social protection and labor regulations reach the most vulnerable workers in society.Modest, nationally-financed unemployment packages, for example, can help employers avoid costly severance schemes. They can also lower labor taxes and encourage business to become formal. Thailand’s universal health care policy, for example, is a form of social insurance that has already lowered out-of-pocket costs for patients and led to wider use of medical services.Of course, the East Asia Pacific region’s diverse emerging economies—from mostly rural to urbanizing and small, remote islands—defy a one-size-fits-all approach.For the many countries that are still mainly agrarian, policy makers need to focus on boosting agricultural productivity and encouraging non-farm enterprises. For urbanizing economies, governments need to focus on making cities work better by boosting infrastructure and improving services.More importantly, countries need to look beyond the labor market and focus on fundamentals, such as those that ensure price stability, encourage investment and innovation, and support a regulatory framework that enables small and medium-size enterprises, which employ most people in the region. Show Less -
Available in: Монгол | Myanmar (pdf) | Bahasa Indonesia | Tiếng Việt | ไทยKey findingsDeveloping countries in the East Asia Pacific region will see slightly slo... Show More +wer economic growth this year, but the pace of growth will pick up in the region, excluding China, as the gradual recovery in high-income economies will increase demand for exports from the region.Developing East Asia Pacific remains the fastest-growing region in the world.Overall, developing countries in East Asia Pacific will grow by 6.9% this year and in 2015, down from 7.2% in 2013.In China, growth will ease slightly to 7.4% this year and 7.2% in 2015, amid structural reforms to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints.Excluding China, developing countries will grow at 4.8% this year, before rising to 5.3% in 2015, as exports rise and domestic adjustment in the large Southeast Asian economies is completed.How each country benefits from the global recovery will depend on their investment and export environment.China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia are well positioned to increase their exports. Malaysia, for example, will grow by 5.7%, up from 4.9% in April, reflecting robust exports in the first half of the year.In Indonesia, which still relies on exporting commodities, growth will drop to 5.2% this year from 5.8% in 2013. That’s because of falling commodity prices, lower-than-expected government consumption and slower credit expansion.The region’s economies are supported by robust private consumption, such as election-related spending in Indonesia, a strong labor market in Malaysia, and remittances in the Philippines.Significant uncertainties remain.If the global recovery falters, global financial conditions tighten sharply, or international and regional geopolitical tensions rise, the region’s economic outlook will become more challenging.The region also remains vulnerable to a sharp slowdown in China, which, though unlikely to happen, could hit commodity producers, such as metal exporters in Mongolia and coal exporters in Indonesia, especially hard.The best way for countries in the region to deal with these risks is to address vulnerabilities and inefficiencies caused by an extended period of loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, and complement these measures with structural reforms to enhance export competitiveness.In Mongolia and Lao PDR, for example, the fiscal deficit must be reduced and monetary policy tightened.In Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, measures to bolster revenues and reduce poorly targeted subsidies will help create space for productivity-enhancing investments and poverty-reducing spending, while gradually rebuilding fiscal buffers.In China, as the government seeks to strike a balance between containing growing risks and meeting growth targets, we believe structural reforms in sectors previously reserved for state enterprises and services could help offset the impact of measures to contain local government debt and curb shadow banking.In the long run, we encourage countries to carry out structural reforms needed to boost their export competitiveness and maximize the benefits from the global recovery.Key reforms include infrastructure investment, logistics, and the liberalization of services and foreign direct investment. Show Less -
Temuan laporanNegara-negara berkembang di Asia Timur dan Pasifik akan mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih lambat tahun ini, namun kecepatan pertumbuhan akan naik, termasuk di Tiongkok, seiring mulai p... Show More +ulihnya ekonomi negara-negara maju yang akan meningkatkan permintaan ekspor dari kawasan ini.Asia Timur dan Pasifik yang sedang berkembang tetap menjadi kawasan dengan tingkat pertumbuhan tercepat di dunia.Secara keseluruhan, negara-negara berkembang di Asia Timur dan Pasifik akan tumbuh sebesar 6,9 persen pada tahun 2014 dan tahun 2015, turun dari 7,2 persen pada tahun 2013.Di Tiongkok, pertumbuhan akan melambat menjadi 7,4 persen pada tahun 2014 dan 7,2 persen di tahun 2015, di tengah reformasi struktural guna mengatasi kerentanan finansial dan hambatan struktural.Kecuali Tiongkok, negara-negara berkembang di kawasan ini akan tumbuh sebesar hanya 4,8 persen tahun ini, kemudian naik 5,3 persen tahun 2015, seiring meningkatnya ekspor dan kemajuan reformasi ekonomi di negara-negara besar di Asia Tenggara.Bagaimana tiap negara memperoleh manfaat dari pemulihan global, akan bergantung pada kondisi investasi dan ekspor masing-masing negara tersebut.Tiongkok, Vietnam, Malaysia, dan Kamboja berada dalam posisi yang baik untuk meningkatkan ekspor. Malaysia, contohnya, akan tumbuh sebesar 5,7 persen, naik dari 4,9 persen pada bulan April, karena jumlah ekspor yang besar pada paruh pertama tahun ini.Di Indonesia, yang masih mengandalkan ekspor komoditas, pertumbuhan akan turun menjadi 5,2 persen tahun ini, dari 5,8 persen pada tahun 2013. Hal ini disebabkan turunnya harga komoditas, belanja pemerintah yang lebih rendah dari yang diperkirakan, serta ekspansi kredit yang lebih lambat.Ekonomi di kawasan ini didukung oleh konsumsi pasar yang kuat, seperti belanja pemilihan umum di Indonesia, pasar tenaga kerja yang kuat di Malaysia, dan pengiriman uang oleh pekerja migran di Filipina.Ketidakpastian besar tetap ada.Bila pemulihan global gagal, kondisi finansial global menjadi sangat ketat, atau ketegangan geopolitik internasional dan regional meningkat, masa depan ekonomi di kawasan ini akan menjadi semakin berat.Kawasan ini juga tetap rentan terhadap perlambatan pertumbuhan di Tiongkok, yang mesti kemungkinannya kecil, bisa berdampak besar pada produsen komoditas, seperti eksportir logam di Mongolia dan eksportir batubara di Indonesia.Cara terbaik bagi negara-negara di kawasan ini dalam menangani risiko-risiko tersebut adalah dengan mengatasi kerentanan dan inefisiensi akibat kebijakan moneter dan stimulus fiskal yang longgar dan berkepanjangan, serta melengkapi langkah-langkah ini dengan melakukan reformasi struktural untuk meningkatkan daya saing ekspor.Di Mongolia dan Laos, misalnya, defisit fiskal sebaiknya dikurangi dan kebijakan moneter diperketat.Di Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, dan Thailand, tindakan-tindakan yang dapat meningkatkan pendapatan dan mengurangi subsidi yang kurang tepat sasaran, akan menciptakan ruang bagi investasi untuk meningkatkan produktivitas dan upaya-upaya pengentasan kemiskinan, sambil secara perlahan memperkuat ketahanan fiskal.Di Tiongkok, pemerintah berupaya mencari titik imbang antara mencegah tumbuhnya risiko dan memenuhi sasaran pertumbuhan. Kami percaya, reformasi struktural yang dilakukan pada sektor-sektor BUMN dan layanan milik negara, dapat mengurangi dampak tindakan untuk mengontrol hutang pemerintah daerah dan munculnya shadow banking.Dalam kurun waktu yang panjang, kami menyarankan negara-negara tersebut untuk melakukan reformasi struktural guna memperkuat daya saing ekspor dan memaksimalkan manfaat dari pemulihan global.Reformasi-reformasi penting yang direkomendasikan termasuk investasi infrastruktur, logistik, serta kemudahan layanan jasa dan investasi langsung asing. Show Less -