The expanding political stalemate at home and regional spillovers pose significant downside risk to growth. The economy is projected to grow by 2 percent in 2015 on account of a low base effect and an assumed abating of current domestic and regional tensions. Given current developments, this assumption of a pre-May and June 2014 environment could fail to materialize. This would negatively impact growth in 2015.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2014: Downside Risks Materialize (PDF)