This paper specifies and estimates for
three developing countries two intertemporal models of total
imports. Imports are related alternatively to foreign
exchange receipts... Show More +
and to GNP, with explicit account taken of
expectations about the future values of these variables,
future import prices and interest rates. Using non-nested
hypothesis tests, the models are compared between themselves
and with two other models of imports in the literature.
While the results are not entirely satisfactory, they
suggest that the intertemporal approach is quite promising.
As this attempt is first to estimate an intertemporal model
of international trade, considerable space is devoted to the
operational specification of the theoretical models. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP740
Date: July 31, 1985
Author:
Winters, Alan
Exchange rate policies of nine countries
in Africa during the post-independence period are examined.
Governments in these countries did not look upon the
exchange rate... Show More +
as a major policy instrument and the paper
reviews the impact of this neglect on worsening economic
growth and the balance of payments towards the end of the
1970s and the early 1980s. Even today many African
governments believe that devaluation will accentuate
inflation, exacerbate budget deficits and yield few benefits
in terms of increased exports or lower imports. It is argued
that such general skepticism is misplaced and that the
effectiveness of exchange rate policy depends on how well it
is designed and implemented. The paper concludes by pointing
out that the pursuit of a dynamic exchange rate policy is an
essential component in a policy package aimed at structural adjustment. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP720
Date: February 28, 1985
Author:
Gulhati, R. ;
Bose, S. ;
Atukorala, V.
This paper examines the level and
structure of interest rates ford the period 1970-82 in ten
developing countries: Bangladesh, Kenya, Korea, Morocco,
Nigeria, Pakistan,... Show More +
Peru, Thailand, Turkey and Uruguay. In
addition, the paper briefly examines the countries'
broader financial and economic policies. In most cases,
nominal interest rates were controlled by the governments
and varied substantially less than inflation during this
period. As a result, real interest rates rose (or fell) with
declines (or increases) in inflation; hence, highly negative
real rates were a direct reflection of high inflation. A
simple grouping of nine of the ten sample countries into two
categories demonstrates this clearly: the first group (six
countries) had low inflation and mildly negative real rates,
which averaged within a few percentage points of the
corresponding averages for the industrialized countries; and
the second group (three countries) had high inflation and
highly negative real rates, which averaged ten to
twenty-five percentage points below rates in the
industrialized countries. The tenth country, Uruguay,
switched from the high inflation, highly negative real rate
group to a high inflation, highly positive and volatile real
rate category about half way through the period, due to a
major liberalization, and thus did not fall into either category. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP753
Date: January 31, 1985
Author:
Hanson, James A. ;
Neal, Craig R.
Two conclusions can be drawn about the
effect of infant and child mortality on the number of
births. First, for women who breastfeed their children an
infant death reduces... Show More +
the interval between births (in the
absence of contraception). Second, there will tend to be
more births if infant deaths occur from the first few
births. The estimates reported show substantial variation
across countries and by technique used. There may be
externalities or societal changes operating over the long
run that require more sophisticated analysis. This paper
presents a comparison between the cost of averting a birth
through a family planning program and the cost of averting a
birth indirectly by preventing an infant death. Of the 16
countries studies, Kenya, which has a high mortality rate,
was the one case where mortality reduction was more cost
effective than family planning. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP556
Date: February 28, 1983
Author:
Cochrane, S. ;
Zachariah, K. ;
PHN
This paper analyzes the institutional
factors in the success of the Kenya Tea Development
Authority. It surveys the rapid growth of KTDA, the largest
and most successful... Show More +
smallholder tea scheme in the world,
with 138,000 growers, 24 operating factories, and production
of around 33,000 metric tons of manufactured tea. The paper
identifies organizational autonomy, strategic managerial
control and an effective accountability and incentive system
as the keys to KTDSA's institutional success. Current
problems arising from market conditions and the maturing of
the smallholder tea industry are discussed in terms of the
institutional adaptations they will require KTDA to make.
The paper also considers the relevance of KTDA's
experience for other development institutions. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP550
Date: January 31, 1982
Author:
Lamb, G. ;
Muller, L. ;
PAS
Based on the existing literature and the
circumscribed data base, this paper assesses the extent and
nature of industrialization in three African countries.
After a... Show More +
promising start, the drive to industrialize is now
faltering. The record is influenced much more by the
colonial legacy and the macro-economic situation of each
country than by industrial policy. It is clear that future
industrial advance will depend heavily on the pace of rural
development. Catering to world markets is not likely to
provide a major stimulus for the industrial sector of many
African economies in the near term future. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP457
Date: May 31, 1981
Author:
GULHATI, R. ;
SEKHAR, U.
Chapters 1 and 2 of this paper provide
an empirical investigation of trends in poverty and income
distribution in Kenya between 1963 and 1974, differentiated
by region... Show More +
and occuption. Chapter 3 provides a framework for
explaining these trends in terms of the pattern of growth,
and in particular emphasizes the two way rural-urban
interactions which largely explain the "spread"
effects of growth in Kenya. Chapter 4 derives some policy
conclusions on how future growth could be made to yield even
higher degrees of poverty redressal. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP389
Date: May 31, 1980
Author:
COLLIER, P. ;
LAL, D.
Roundworms are believed to affect a
quarter of the world's population. The present study,
carried out in Kenya by a research team from Cornell
University, was undertaken... Show More +
to determine the effect this
disease may have both from a nutritional and an economic
viewpoint. Although the results presented here largely
pertain to children, its implications are equally valid to
the well-being and productivity of adults, as is discussed.
The research indicates that children with light infections
in Ascariasis absorb less nutrients, and this is translated
into a food loss of an average of 3% of ingested calories.
Heavy infections could lead up to non-utilization of 25% of
ingested calories. This may have important repercussions for
nutritional programs. The paper also calculated costs of
medication, hospitalization, and loss of income from
Ascariasis in the general population based on hospital
statistics. Deworming undertaken on an average of twice a
year could lead to a benefit cost ratio as high as 10:1.
Additional studies will explore the feasibility and costs of
large-scale treatment. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP271
Date: September 30, 1977
Author:
LATHAM, L. ;
LATHAM, M. ;
BASTA, S.
A macromodel of the classical gap
analysis type, which was redesigned to take into account
specific problems emerging in Kenya, may prove useful as a
prototype for other... Show More +
lesser developed nations. Kenya's
main problem concerns the manner in which a high growth rate
of GNP consistent with tackling the difficulties of external
debts, unemployment, and poverty might be sustained. The
model considers the effect of GDP composition on as many
variables as possible. An attempt is made to bring absolute
and relative prices into the system by making absolute
prices endogenous. The model also incorporates the effects
of relative factor prices on investment and employment.
Employment projections are made for the modern wage
employment, skilled manpower requirement, and total
employment. Analysis of savings at a purely aggregative
level creates conceptual and statistical problems, and it is
necessary to analyze separately the determinants of
households, government, and business. Analysis of the
effects of foreign capital inflow on domestic savings is
appended, and economic, financial, and statistical data are included. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP161
Date: September 30, 1973
Author:
AGARWALA, R. ;
BHAKTA, R.
