Kenya

This paper examines recent trends in the Kenyan coffee sub-sector and evaluates production and export prospects for Kenyan coffee under several scenarios. In evaluating... Show More + the long-term prospects for the Kenyan coffee subsector, scenarios with respect to important factors such as the potential yields and adoption rates of a new high-yielding variety and forecasts of international coffee prices have been considered. Secifically, the paper describes recent trends in Kenyan coffee production, consumption, exports, stocks, yields and prices and compares the performances of the estate and smallholder sectors within that context. It further describes the characteristics of coffee production in the estate and smallholder sectors, covering topics such as costs of production, quality differentials and government policies. The report also models coffee production in the estate and smallholder sectors using the vintage capital approach and describes projections of Kenyan coffee production from them. In that vein, the report examines the prospects for Kenya's coffee exports with the focus on the International Coffee Agreement and, in particular, the outlook for the Agreement's export quota system and Kenya's likely quota allotment. Show Less -