India

International negotiations on climate change have been dogged by mutual recriminations between rich and poor countries, constricted by the zero-sum arithmetic of a shrinking... Show More + global carbon budget, and overtaken by shifts in economic power between industrialized and developing countries. To overcome these "narrative," "adding-up," and "new world" problems, respectively, this paper proposes a new Greenprint for cooperation. First, the large dynamic emerging economies -- China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia -- must assume the mantle of leadership, offering contributions of their own and prodding the reluctant industrial countries into action. This role reversal would be consistent with the greater stakes for the dynamic emerging economies. Second, the emphasis must be on technology generation. This would allow greater consumption and production possibilities for all countries while respecting the global emissions budget that is dictated by the climate change goal of keeping average temperature rise below 2 degrees centigrade. Third, instead of the old cash-for-cuts approach -- which relies on the industrial countries offering cash (which they do not have) to the dynamic emerging economies for cuts (that they are unwilling to make) -- all major emitters must make contributions. With a view to galvanizing a technology revolution, industrial countries would take early action to raise carbon prices. The dynamic emerging economies would in turn eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, commit to matching carbon price increases in the future, allow limited border taxes against their own exports, and strengthen protection of intellectual property for green technologies. This would directly and indirectly facilitate such a technological revolution. Show Less -

The transformation of India's unorganized sector is important to its modernization, growth, and attainment of regional economic equality. This paper documents several... Show More + key facts about India's unorganized sector in manufacturing and services. First, the unorganized sector is large, accounting for more than 99 percent of establishments and 80 percent of employment in manufacturing. Second, the unorganized sector is stubbornly persistent -- it accounted for 81 percent of manufacturing employment in 1989 and 2005. Third, this persistence is not due to particular subsets of industries or states, as most industries and states show limited change in unorganized sector employment shares. Fourth, the degree to which localized unorganized activity exists is important as it is associated with weaker production functions for manufacturing firms. Building from these facts, the paper investigates conditions promoting transformation by state-industry. Decomposition exercises find that both within and between adjustments for state-industries weakly reduce unorganized sector shares. The aggregate persistence instead comes from the covariance term, where fast-growing state-industries witness rising unorganized sector activity. Regressions quantify that growth in the organized sector by state-industry reduces the unorganized sector employment share, but only marginally reduces employment levels in unorganized activity. Analysis of the establishment size distribution highlights that entrepreneurship and larger organized sector plants are most important for transitions in the manufacturing sector, while small establishments play a key role in the services sector. Show Less -

To regain the strong growth it had before the global crisis, South Asia will have to manage a combination of persistent external economic headwinds and increasing regional... Show More + macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. Macroeconomic policies to tackle the adverse effects of the global downturn have left the South Asian countries with weaker fiscal and monetary options to stimulate growth today. With the exception of Afghanistan, economic growth across other South Asian countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka-has been moderating or stagnating. In Bangladesh, with export and investment growth slowing, Gross Domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to fall to around 6 percent in FY2013/14, down from 6.3 percent in FY2012/13. Over the same period, Bhutan saw its growth rate decline from almost 9 percent to 7.6 percent. India's economy slowed significantly. As a result, growth of a subdued 3 percent is expected in FY2012/13, down from 4.6 percent in FY2011/12. A significant drop in the region's exports and fixed investment are primarily responsible for South Asia's growth moderation. Private consumption remained stable, helped by resilient remittance flows, and is expected to only pick up slowly due to effects of persistent inflation, fiscal consolidation and slow recovery in disposable income. The overall real effective exchange rate depreciation across South Asia reflects weak economic fundamentals. International reserves fell below critical levels of two months of import coverage in Pakistan and one month in Maldives, reflecting the two countries' difficult external situations. During the first eight months of FY2012/13, Pakistan's net international reserves fell to 1.8 months, down from 2.6 months in the previous fiscal year. Show Less -

One job per poor rural family. This is the goal of the Employment Generation & Marketing Mission (EGMM), which was established in 2005 by the Andhra Pradesh Rural Poverty... Show More + Reduction Program (APRPRP). Andhra Pradesh's unemployment rate is slightly higher than that of India, but these numbers do not give the full picture of employment challenges. Rural areas are plagued with low incomes and underemployment with many people working in the informal sector, manual labor or seasonal small scale farming. EGMM's mission is to respond to this problem by facilitating employment in the formal sector which offers more stable and higher incomes for economically underprivileged rural youth so that poor households can leave poverty within one generation. To achieve its goal of generating employment for rural youth, EGMM works with the state government, the private sector, and community institutions of the rural poor. Accurate targeting is an important component of the program. EGMM targets rural youth from poor families of SHGs who are between 18 and 28 years of age. Show Less -

This paper studies the extent to which firms in China and India use capital markets to obtain financing and grow. Using a unique data set on domestic and international... Show More + capital raising activity and firm performance, it finds that the expansion of financial market activity since the 1990s has been more limited than what the aggregate figures suggest. Relatively few firms raise capital. Even fewer firms capture the bulk of the financing. Moreover, firms that issue equity or bonds are different and behave differently from other publicly listed firms. Among other things, they are typically larger and grow faster. The differences between users and non-users exist before the capital raising activity, are associated with the probability of raising capital, and become more accentuated afterward. The distribution of issuing firms shifts more over time than the distribution of those that do not issue, suggesting little convergence in firm size among listed firms. Show Less -

In response to the Great Recession of 2008, many national governments implemented fiscal stimuli packages in 2009 and 2010 to prevent further declines in aggregate demand... Show More + and to jump start their economic recovery. Where subnational governments responded with fiscal contraction, as in the United States, the impact was muted; where states/provinces also expanded expenditures, as in China and India, the impact was magnified. Increases in recurrent expenditure, which were made in Brazil and India, acted as short-term stimulants; additional public investment, as in China, appears to have had a more lasting impact on growth. Large developing countries typically exhibit high interregional inequality in levels of development and global integration, resulting in differential magnitude and timing of the crisis impact. For example, coastal states in India were affected more severely and quickly than landlocked states; revenue moved in opposite directions in the two types of state in 2009. Where fiscal stress varies widely across subnational entities, central transfers alone cannot prevent pro-cyclicality of subnational fiscal response to a recession. There is need for flexibility in subnational borrowing within a sustainable fiscal framework. Many Indian states were able to maintain or accelerate their spending thanks to the additional borrowing permitted in 2009 and 2010. In comparison, limited borrowing capacity and lack of flexibility in federal grants restricted the contribution of Brazilian states to fiscal stimulus. Legal prohibition of subnational borrowing induced China's provinces to finance additional investments through extra-budgetary borrowing by nongovernment entities, with significant fiscal risks on account of contingent liabilities. Show Less -

The economy is likely to expand by 5.0 percent in FY2013. Although the slowing momentum of economic growth may have bottomed out in the third quarter of FY2013, even... Show More + a substantial pickup in the last quarter of the fiscal year is unlikely to lift the growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost much beyond 5.0 percent given the weakness observed over the previous three quarters. Inflation and fiscal deficit have declined, but the current account deficit has widened. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has had to strike a tough balance between providing some monetary stimulus and restraining further price growth. As inflation, measured by the wholesale price index, has begun to decelerate in recent months, the authorities may gain additional policy room. Continued progress on the reform agenda is key to mitigating downside risks. The authorities' ability to respond to negative external shocks is more limited today than during the 2008-09 global crisis. Additional efforts may be needed to create the fiscal space for India's progress towards universal health coverage. The depreciation of the rupee appears to have lost steam, and the currency strengthened in the second half of the year. With a weaker Balance of Payment (BoP) position, the rupee continued to lose value during FY2013 and hit an all-time low in June, remaining around that level until August. Food inflation remained high while fuel inflation accelerated after deregulation of diesel prices. Expenditure compression in the social sectors and reduction in capital spending allowed for reaching the fiscal targets. Show Less -

This Global Environment Facility (GEF)-Sustainable Urban Transport Project (SUTP) quarterly newsletter includes the following headings: Sustainable Urban Transport Project... Show More + (SUTP); branding and communication strategy for Janmarg; study tour; and over view of Singapore's transport system. Show Less -

Despite rapid economic growth, gender disparities in women's economic participation have remained deep and persistent in India. What explains these gender disparities?... Show More + Is it poor infrastructure, limited education, or the composition of the labor force and industries? Or is it deficiencies in social and business networks and a low share of incumbent female entrepreneurs? This note analyzes the spatial determinants of female entrepreneurship in India in the manufacturing and services sectors. It finds that good infrastructure and education predict higher female entry shares. Gender networks also influence women's economic participation, as strong agglomeration economies exist in both manufacturing and services. A higher female ownership among incumbent businesses within a district-industry predicts a greater share of subsequent female entrepreneurs. Moreover, higher female ownership of local businesses in related industries (similar labor needs, input-output markets) predicts greater relative female entry rates. Unlocking female empowerment and entrepreneurship is a direct path to shared prosperity and a more dynamic and sustainable growth. Show Less -

India is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, particularly earthquakes, flood, drought, cyclone and landslides. In the last decade, India has seen some major disasters... Show More + including the Bhuj earthquake in 2001 and the tsunami in 2004. India has a coastline of 7,516 km covering 13 coastal states and union territories, of which 5700 km are prone to cyclones of various degrees. The coastal districts of Odisha are prone to frequent cyclonic storms and concurrent flood hazards. The Odisha Super-cyclone of 1999 killed over 8,900 people and 440,000 livestock, affected more than 15 million people and disrupted over 2 million households across 14 districts of the state. The Odisha state disaster management authority (OSDMA) set up after the super cyclone of 1999 was the first disaster mitigation authority set up in the country. India in the last decade has also made significant strides in moving from reactive emergency response to being proactive and implementing disaster preparedness and risk reduction initiatives. The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) based mapping is playing a major role in achieving the objectives of the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP). It is helping in enhancing the effectiveness of early warning dissemination systems and communication, improving access and evacuation and in better locating infrastructure. Show Less -