This paper develops an analytical
framework to examine the Brazilian economy. A macro economic
projection model is developed based on a consistency
framework for 1980.... Show More +
After 1980, the economy began to show
many serious weaknesses, unemployment rose rapidly, the
current account deteriorated, & the external debt rose
to over US$90 billion by 1983. The projections suggest that
even relatively strong growth rates of around 6% per annum,
although large enough to support the absorption of increases
in the labor force, will not be sufficient to reduce the
pool of unemployed that has accumulated during the
recession. The recent performance in the merchandise balance
of Brazil has been quite strong but it is essential to
maintain this highly favourable balance if the current
account, & the debt servicing required is to remain
within acceptable limits. This implies that import expansion
should be strongly conditioned by a favourable export
performance. The multi-sectoral nature of the model provides
considerable insight into analyzing which sectors may be
most appropriate for various initiatives & where one may
expect unfavourable consequences. The paper indicates which
policy instruments may be appropriate for various goals but
the choice & blend will in the end be a political decision. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP750
Date: September 30, 1985
Author:
Meyers, Kenneth ;
McCarthy, F. Desmond
This report introduces the reader to the
findings of a large-scale research project and only
highlights findings reported in greater depth in project
papers. Looking... Show More +
at a system of cities across the stages of
economic growth leads to the conclusion that the potential
size of a city at any one point in time is insensitive to
most actions of local public officials. At the same time,
economic development brings in its wake a transformation in
the manmade resources available in secondary centers, as
well as checks to further, accelerated growth in pre-eminent
centers. For most secondary centers there is little
opportunity to profit from a transfer of dynamism from the
metropolis in the form of relocations and new
metropolitan-based branches. The limited search for location
alternatives is responsible for this. Secondary centers can,
however, count on the expansion of stationary firms and on
the generation of new independent units to help bring about
growth. Local officials should concentrate on providing
public services at the local level and on finding ways to
increase the availability of leasable space for smaller
businesses. At the national level the best spatial policy is
a set of efficient sectoral policies. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP732
Date: May 31, 1985
Author:
Hamer, A. ;
WUD
It is well known that there is a strong
relationship between urbanization and economic development
in many countries of the world. Urbanization provides many
benefits... Show More +
to the economy, such as efficient allocation of
resources and economies of scale. In addition, urbanization
in developing countries is much faster than has been
experienced historically by developed countries. This paper
describes the spatial structure of the eight metropolitan
regions of Brazil during 1940-80. The analysis shows that
the experience of these regions is similar to what has been
observed in the developed and some other developing
countries. The growth of population and employment in these
areas has been rapid but its speed has been associated with
the size of the region. Both population and employment in
large metropolitan regions have deconcentrated, while they
have concentrated in small regions. Employment is spatially
more concentrated than is population. Large establishments
in manufacturing tend to be located in the rings. The
reverse trend is observed in commerce. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP722
Date: February 28, 1985
Author:
Yoon Joo Lee ;
DED
Integrated rural development projects
have a number of functional components which are
operationally unrelated. Agricultural production promoting
activities such as... Show More +
the extension of credit are combined with
social components such as the provision of health services
and with infrastructure building works such as rural
electrification. Although the concept of a multipronged
approach to rural development appears sound and attractive
to many, its actual application has in many instances been
disappointing. In particular, concrete achievements and
hence measurable benefits often fall short of planning
goals. It is argued in this study that the modesty in
achievements experienced, so far, is due as much to the
complexity of the problem, rural underdevelopment, as it is
to the result of structure and inexperience of the mostly
public sector institutions that are asked to implement the
project designs. Concluding that the concept of integrated
rural development merits further application, the study
recommends pursuing an institutionalization of project
development activities, (2) enlisting private sector land
development companies as executing agencies; and (3)
supporting financially and with technical assistance the
many nongovernmental agencies that operate in rural development. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP716
Date: January 31, 1985
Author:
Lacroix, R. ;
AMEC, Inc.
Because of decline in fertility,
population growth has been declining in Brazil and Colombia
since the mid-1960s and in Mexico since the mid-1970s. The
paper examines... Show More +
the determinants of the onset and spread of
fertility decline in each country and concludes that both
supply and demand factors contributed to their acceleration.
Analysis of the proximate determinants of fertility
indicates increased use of effective contraceptives as the
main contributor on the supply side. Demand was important
because the fertility decline was also related to increased
economic pressures on lower income classes. Overall, the
decline in fertility has accelerated because it has spread
to these income groups. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP692
Date: January 31, 1985
Author:
Merrick, T.
Technology exports reflect important
shifts in the global pattern of comparative advantage. They
reflect increasing industrial maturity and technological
experience... Show More +
accumulated in industrialization. Except for
construction and capital goods, the volume of technology
exports is comparatively small, but it has reached
appreciable levels in recent years. More significantly, all
types of technology exports have been growing rapidly, which
seems likely to continue, particularly once favorable
international market conditions are restored. Technology
exports can be accounted for in terms of the influences of
resource endowment, government policy, and firm strategy.
The combined impact of these influences can be expressed in
the following terms: overall resource endowment, including
human capital, determines potential comparative cost
advantage; firm strategy and country policy affect the
realization of potential advantages and the relative
profitability of exercising them through different means;
strategy and policy aspects influence changes in comparative
advantage through their effects on human and institutional
capital accumulation. While there are benefits to greater
participation in trade, acquiring experience in newly
established areas takes time and effort. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP667
Date: September 30, 1984
Author:
Dahlman, C. ;
Sercovich, F.
This paper summarizes the experience of
several countries in setting-up food distribution programs,
from untargeted food subsidies schemes to targeted systems
like ration... Show More +
shops strategically located, self-targeting by
commodity, and food stamp programs to the highly targeted
special intervention nutrition programs. A main contribution
of the paper to the literature on this topic is the
construction and actual implementation of a cost-benefit
analysis to evaluate food policy systems. Starting from a
concept of consumer surplus, a derived distribution scheme
is applied to compute the social consumer surplus. The
social producer surplus is also computed to measure the
impact of the different schemes on domestic farmers.
Finally, the different costs of running the system from food
costs to administrative costs are considered. The second
major contribution is a detailed description of the
institutional design and a critical evaluation of the
systems that have been implemented in several countries
following a typology developed in the paper. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP617
Date: November 30, 1983
Author:
MATEUS, A. ;
EM 2
Brazil's system of
intergovernmental fiscal relations has, with some minor
exceptions, remained unchanged for almost two decades.
Economic, social and political conditions... Show More +
in the country,
however, have undergone profound transformations during the
same period. This paper investigates whether the mechanisms,
established during the 1960s, for financing state and local
governments are still adequate in the environment of the
1980s. The main conclusion is that they are not, and that
certain fiscal adjustments are called for in order to bring
resource availability at the subnational level more into
line with functional responsibilities. Given the extreme
intra- and interregional economic disparities prevailing in
Brazil, special attention is given to the fiscal problems of
governments in poorer regions. The methodology used in this
report focuses attention on the extent to which the
intergovernmental fiscal system has achieved and maintained
vertical balance, the balance between resource availability
and functional responsibilities at each of the various
levels of government, and horizontal balance, the balance
between resources and responsibilities at given levels of
government in different parts of the country. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP612
Date: September 30, 1983
Author:
Mahar, Dennis J. ;
Dillinger, William R.
Evidence from 20 countries shows that
those with lower taxes experienced more rapid expansion of
investment, productivity, employment, and government
services, and had... Show More +
better growth rates, without
discriminating against the poor. This paper examines the
mechanisms by which fiscal policies may have affected their
performance. The evidence suggests that tax policy has
affected economic performance via two basic mechanisms: (i)
lower taxes have resulted in higher real returns to savings,
investment, work, and innovation, and higher returns have
stimulated a larger aggregate supply of these factors of
production and thus raised total output; and (ii) the focus
and types of fiscal incentives provided by low-tax countries
appear to have shifted resources from less productive to
more productive sectors and activities; thus increasing the
overall efficiency of resource utilization. The findings do
not imply that tax changes would bring immediate results.
The timing and context of tax reform is probably critical. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP605
Date: August 31, 1983
Author:
Marsden, Keith ;
IND
This paper utilizes data on the ratio of
surviving children and other variables for a sub-sample of
mothers aged 20-29 to analyze the impact of increased access
to piped... Show More +
water in urban households on trends and income
class differentials in child mortality. Path analytic
regression techniques are used to test a recursive model
linking the supply and demand for piped water to selected
household and community level variables, and to examine
their joint effect on child mortality. The analysis shows
that increased maternal education accounted for a larger
share of the mortality decline between 1970 and 1976 than
any other single factor. Increased access to piped water did
contribute, and also helped reduce the mortality
differential between lower and higher income and education
classes. Obviously, piped water is a costly intervention; an
analysis of the relative cost-effectiveness, e.g. piped
water vs. female education, requires that their costs be
estimated and matched to these estimates of relative effectiveness. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP594
Date: August 31, 1983
Author:
MERRICK, T.
In the past 20 years the Brazilian
economy has experienced substantial growth. However, the
nature of this growth and the growth process itself have
been controversial,... Show More +
with many critics contending that
poverty and human misery have increased. Others extol the
virtures of this Brazilian model of growth, pointing to the
human benefits accompanying the growth process. An analysis
of data from the 1980 demographic census attempts to shed
light on this debate. A descriptive examination of various
measures of poverty is undertaken with comparisons made
between 1970 and 1980. Computations are also made of Gini
coefficients, Theil indices, and income deciles. This
analysis produces some rather far reaching results and
conclusions. Despite persistant poverty, during the 1970s
substantial progress in reducing poverty and improving
living standards occurred. There is some evidence of overall
increased income concentration, growing inequality could not
be fully discerned by our measures. In addition, reductions
in income inequality among regions and among sectors were
observed. The agricultural sector in particular was
characterized by rapidly growing average incomes, despite
growing income inequality within it. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP601
Date: July 31, 1983
Author:
DENSLOW, JR. D. ;
TYLER, W. ;
LAC 2
Given pollution, congestion, and the
condition of public health within the metropolitan Sao Paulo
area, the issue of whether public policy should actively
foster industrial... Show More +
decentralization has become an important
topic of political debate. This paper reports on the
preliminary analysis of responses to questions asked in the
survey about the motives for seeking a new site or building
and the factors entering into the choice of a new site or
building. Plants were divided into three movement
categories: births, or new plants of new companies; branch
plant moves; and transfer moves, involving closure of an
existing unit and reopening at a new location. The analysis
indicates that, from a wide range of possible factors, a
relatively small number play the dominant role in both
decisions; but considerable variation is found by location
of the plant and by the characteristics of the company
involved. Growth and expansion are the most significant
locational push factors; strongest location pull factors
include ease of road access, space for expansion, suitable
plot, available power supply, and plentiful and appropriate
labor supply. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP517
Date: July 31, 1983
Author:
TOWNROE, P. ;
UNIV. OF EAST ANGLIA
This paper investigates the degree to
which the use of a single urban poverty threshold in Brazil
leads to biased project identification, design, and
evaluation. Analysis... Show More +
of the causes of proverty is beyond its
scope. Absolute poverty lines are defined through the use of
estimates of expenditures for mimimum cost, nutritionally
adequate diets and food shares of total expenditures by
families with incomes roughly equivalent to the Bank's
relative poverty standard of three minimum salaries. The
main findings are: (i) interpretation of data expressed in
minimum salary units presents several difficulties; (ii)
relative prices of each element of the food basket were not
stable, but of a staple portion of five items were stable;
(iii) the average per capita cost of the food basket was
highest in the poorer regions; (iv) converting the national
poverty line expressed in cruzeiros to minimum salaries
expressed in regional values would decrease the risks of
bias in urban project design and appraisal; and (v) the
methodology presented could be reproduced in other
middle-income countries. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP565
Date: April 30, 1983
Author:
HICKS, J. ;
VETTER, D.
Regional disparities in living standards
within Brazil have received increasing attention in recent
years. This paper attempts to throw light on this issue by
providing... Show More +
a quantitative range for these differences.
Drawing on the national consumption survey called ENDEF for
1974/75, estimates are set out for real income, nutritional
levels and poverty for major regions, and urban and rural
areas. The results of this study indicate that, although
cost of living adjustments narrow spatial differences, large
regional disparities remain, particularly upon comparing the
Northeast and the Southeast. The use of cost of living
indices reduces urban-rural variations more than in the case
of regional differences, drastically narrowing the
urban-rural gap in food consumption. Poverty is,
nevertheless, much more concentrated in the rural areas than
in urban areas, although regional differences in the
incidence of poverty are more striking than the urban-rural divergencies. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP505
Date: February 28, 1982
Author:
THOMAS, V. ;
DPS
This paper presents a cost-benefit
framework to analyze pollution control policies, and sets
out some preliminary order-of-magnitude level estimates.
Available evidence... Show More +
points to large damages from pollution in
terms of the detrimental effects on human morbidity and
mortality, particularly in the highly contaminated and
heavily populated districts of Sao Paulo. In capturing the
implied benefits through pollution abatement, however, heavy
costs will be incurred, unless a selective approach is
adopted. Such an approach would be discriminatory with
respect to the group of industries and types of areas
targeted for regulation and the nature of controls imposed
on pollution. Spatial non-uniformity of the desired strategy
can lead to induced changes in industrial location. Such a
redistribution of output away from the heavily damaged and
densely inhabited population centers to areas better capable
of absorbing pollution could be welcome. This indirect
effect on manufacturing location is generally preferable to
policies that directly limit growth in production in certain
places as a means to improve environmental quality. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP501
Date: November 30, 1981
Author:
THOMAS, V.
This paper asks whether growth has been
widely shared and, in particular, whether it has raised the
absolute incomes of the poorest groups in Brazil. The review
of evidence... Show More +
covers the period 1960-1976/77. New sources, in
particular a national household budget survey (ENDEF) and
the 1976 household employment survey, have made possible
both a re-examination of previous sources and a clearer
separation in the analysis of income trends before and
during the fast growth period between 1968 and 1974. There
is no set of comparable and accurate sources that provide a
definite answer to questions regarding income trends since
1960. There is, however, a great deal of fragmentary and
imperfect evidence which, when examined as a whole, suggests
that: (i) the extent of income growth throughout the
population, including many in the poorest groups, has been
underestimated in previous studies; and (ii) the rate of
poverty reduction was faster during the rapid growth years, 1968-1974. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP356
Date: September 30, 1979
Author:
PFEFFERMANN, G. ;
WEBB, R.
A general approach to economic analysis
of projects is presented, including the basic notions of
cost-benefit analysis in the context of project analysis. A
systematic... Show More +
and consistent estimation and application of
shadow prices is needed, and suggestions are made for
incorporating distributional effects, as well as the
customary efficiency components, into shadow prices. Social
rates of return can then be calculated, taking into account
the distributional impact of various projects, an aspect
ignored in the usual economic rates of return as derived
from efficiency prices. Shadow prices are derived to reflect
a wide range of economic conditions and value judgments
concerning basic policy objectives pertaining to growth and
distribution. Uncertainty, sensitivity, and risk must also
be evaluated in project analysis. An appendix addresses the
technical derivation of shadow prices. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP194
Date: January 1, 1979
Author:
van der Tak, Herman ;
Squire, Lyn
This paper attempts to elucidate the
long-term impact of basic education on income inequality in
Brazil. It does so, first, by examining how investment in
basic education... Show More +
affects incomes and, second, by assessing
the extent to which government involvement in the financing
of education services and the taxing of the returns to
education investment contributes to the achievement of a
more equitable distribution of income. On the basis of the
empirical evidence available in Brazil, it is possible to
suggest that (i) education per se cannot significantly
reduce inequality, (ii) government policies in terms of
education subsidies and taxes on lifetime earnings do not
show a clear redistribution pattern, and (iii) there exist
effective policy tools in the area of employment, education
wastage, cost recovery practices which could help bridge the
gap between rates of return to education and reduce income inequality. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP268
Date: June 30, 1977
Author:
JALLADE, J.
The paper empirically examines the
effects of household structure and related economic
variables on urban poverty through the combined analyses of
employment and earnings... Show More +
capacity of households at four
levels of income. It concludes by establishing the
overwhelming importance of economic compared to demographic
factors in producing disparities in levels of living among
households in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). It also shows that
differences in earnings per worker are quantitatively more
important in accounting for differences in household levels
of living than variations in employment rates. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP237
Date: July 31, 1976
Author:
SANT'ANNA, A. ;
MERRICK, T. ;
MAZUMDAR, D.
Two regional Brazilian transportation
models are summarized. The basic objectives of the two
studies are similar: transport project identification and
preliminary evaluation... Show More +
for an entire mode or sector through
application of a formal network model. One study encompasses
all modes while the other only covers highway transport. The
overall conceptual framework common to the two studies
involves five parts: 1) traffic generation by a region as a
function of the spatial pattern of population and economic
activity; 2) estimation of costs and performance measures
for each link; 3) definition of the network and
determination of the minimum path routing between every
origin-destination pair; 4) distribution of traffic flow
volumes by origin and destination; and 5) project selection
under a capital constraint. Tabular data on Brazilian
transport costs, different types of road surface by vehicle
type, different rates of rise and fall by vehicle type, and
values for curvature, bridges, and side friction by road
surface and vehicle type are provided. Show Less -
Type: Staff Working Paper
Report#: SWP94
Date: December 31, 1970
Author:
HARRAL, C. ;
HENNEMAN, S. ;
ISAAC, I.