International negotiations on climate
change have been dogged by mutual recriminations between
rich and poor countries, constricted by the zero-sum
arithmetic of a shrinking... Show More +
global carbon budget, and
overtaken by shifts in economic power between industrialized
and developing countries. To overcome these
"narrative," "adding-up," and "new
world" problems, respectively, this paper proposes a
new Greenprint for cooperation. First, the large dynamic
emerging economies -- China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia --
must assume the mantle of leadership, offering contributions
of their own and prodding the reluctant industrial countries
into action. This role reversal would be consistent with the
greater stakes for the dynamic emerging economies. Second,
the emphasis must be on technology generation. This would
allow greater consumption and production possibilities for
all countries while respecting the global emissions budget
that is dictated by the climate change goal of keeping
average temperature rise below 2 degrees centigrade. Third,
instead of the old cash-for-cuts approach -- which relies on
the industrial countries offering cash (which they do not
have) to the dynamic emerging economies for cuts (that they
are unwilling to make) -- all major emitters must make
contributions. With a view to galvanizing a technology
revolution, industrial countries would take early action to
raise carbon prices. The dynamic emerging economies would in
turn eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, commit to matching
carbon price increases in the future, allow limited border
taxes against their own exports, and strengthen protection
of intellectual property for green technologies. This would
directly and indirectly facilitate such a technological revolution. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6440
Date: May 1, 2013
Author:
Mattoo, Aaditya ;
Subramanian, Arvind
In response to the Great Recession of
2008, many national governments implemented fiscal stimuli
packages in 2009 and 2010 to prevent further declines in
aggregate demand... Show More +
and to jump start their economic recovery.
Where subnational governments responded with fiscal
contraction, as in the United States, the impact was muted;
where states/provinces also expanded expenditures, as in
China and India, the impact was magnified. Increases in
recurrent expenditure, which were made in Brazil and India,
acted as short-term stimulants; additional public
investment, as in China, appears to have had a more lasting
impact on growth. Large developing countries typically
exhibit high interregional inequality in levels of
development and global integration, resulting in
differential magnitude and timing of the crisis impact. For
example, coastal states in India were affected more severely
and quickly than landlocked states; revenue moved in
opposite directions in the two types of state in 2009. Where
fiscal stress varies widely across subnational entities,
central transfers alone cannot prevent pro-cyclicality of
subnational fiscal response to a recession. There is need
for flexibility in subnational borrowing within a
sustainable fiscal framework. Many Indian states were able
to maintain or accelerate their spending thanks to the
additional borrowing permitted in 2009 and 2010. In
comparison, limited borrowing capacity and lack of
flexibility in federal grants restricted the contribution of
Brazilian states to fiscal stimulus. Legal prohibition of
subnational borrowing induced China's provinces to
finance additional investments through extra-budgetary
borrowing by nongovernment entities, with significant fiscal
risks on account of contingent liabilities. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6409
Date: April 1, 2013
Author:
Fardoust, Shahrokh ;
Ravishankar, V.J.
This note studies the long-run impacts
of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic
growth in Brazil. After a brief review of gender issues in
Brazil,... Show More +
this note describes a framework for quantifying the
growth effects of gender-based policies in developing
economies. The analysis is based on a computable overlapping
generations (OLG) model that accounts for the impact of
access to infrastructure on women's time allocation, as
well as human capital accumulation, inter- and
intra-generational health externalities, and bargaining
between spouses. The model is calibrated for Brazil and is
used to conduct two experiments, the first involving
improved access to infrastructure, and the second a
reduction in gender bias in the marketplace. The key lesson
of these experiments, is that fostering gender equality,
which may depend significantly on the externalities that
infrastructure creates in terms of women's time
allocation and bargaining power, can have a substantial
impact on long-run growth in Brazil. Show Less -
Type: Brief
Report#: 75835
Date: March 1, 2013
Author:
Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Canuto, Otaviano
Reaching agreement on a reasonable
performance target is a challenge, with costs associated
with getting it wrong. Attention in the literature has
focused on the potential... Show More +
negative effects of gaming or of
creaming. However, even if there is no gaming or creaming
taking place, there can still be costs associated with
setting a level of the performance target that is either too
low or too high. On the one hand, if the negotiated
performance target is too low, there is a strong risk that
the target would be met without any change in behavior or
performance from what would have been realized without a
performance management system. In that case, there would be
no benefit -- only the cost of covering the administrative
costs associated with developing the monitoring and
management systems. On the other hand, if the negotiated
performance target is too high, there could also be
significant costs. The exact nature of the costs depends on
which one of two unattractive options the principal chooses
to follow once it becomes apparent that the performance
targets were set unrealistically high. If the principal
chooses simply to waive any possible repercussions for the
agents for not meeting the performance targets, this can
undermine the credibility of the system. If the principal
insists on holding agents to meeting the performance targets
-- no matter how unrealistic they were -- this can breed
resentment and adversely affect future productivity. This
paper considers some approaches to target setting that have
been used in the literature and proposes an approach based
on the use of quantile regressions to construct a
Characteristic Adjusted Performance distribution of
performance to guide the selection of targets. The paper
then presents two concrete examples of applications of this
approach related to the setting of targets on School Test
Scores and Improvement in Homicide rates in Police Districts
in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6385
Date: March 1, 2013
Author:
Newman, John L. ;
Azevedo, Joao Pedro
Brazilian exports of goods and services
have grown sharply in recent years, with sales nearly three
times higher in 2010 than in 2000. However, Brazil faces
considerable... Show More +
competitiveness challenges: its export
performance depends mostly on favorable geographical and
sector composition effects. Such challenges increased after
the recent global economic crisis. A recent slowdown in
industrial exports, production, and investments seems
related to supply-side difficulties stemming from a wide
range of inefficiencies and rising costs, rather than
insufficient demand. Although a stronger currency is one of
the factors behind the lower competitiveness of
Brazil's manufacturing exports, sluggish productivity
performance, lack of dynamism at the firm level, and a real
wage uptrend seem to explain a significant part of the
overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces
the urgency of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms,
increasing the investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital. Show Less -
Type: Brief
Report#: 75182
Date: February 1, 2013
Author:
Canuto, Otaviano ;
Reis, Jose Guilherme ;
Cavallari, Matheus
Efforts to make it easier for firms to
register formally are the most common form of business
regulatory reform over the past decade. While there is
evidence that large... Show More +
reforms have resulted in some increases
in registration rates, recent experimental evidence suggests
very few informal firms choose to register when given
information about how to do so. This raises the question of
whether it is productive for governments to continue to
extend simplification efforts to all firms, especially those
in more remote areas where many of the benefits of
registering may be reduced. This study uses administrative
data to evaluate the impact of Minas Facil Expresso, a
program in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, which
attempted to expand a business start-up simplification
program to more remote municipalities. Using
difference-in-differences with 56 months of registration
data for 822 municipalities, the analysis finds introducing
these units actually led to a reduction in registration
rates, and no change in tax revenues. The paper uses this
evaluation to illustrate the design choices and issues
involved in using administrative data to evaluate reforms,
with the goal of also providing a template that can be used
for evaluating similar reforms elsewhere. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6368
Date: February 1, 2013
Author:
Bruhn, Miriam ;
McKenzie, David
This note examines in detail Brazils
export performance over the past 15 years, focusing not only
on growth and composition, but also on different performance
dimensions,... Show More +
including diversification, sophistication, and
firm dynamics. The analysis uses international comparisons
to better situate the Brazilian performance, and explores
different databases, including firm-level data recently
published by the World Bank. The note uses a recent
diagnostic toolkit developed by the World Bank in order to
suggest some hypotheses about the factors that have been
inhibiting exports and industrial production expansion.
Among the latter, it is noted how service sectors, as the
largest beneficiaries from favorable terms of trade,
accommodated larger wage increases and "exported"
cost pressures to other sectors of the economy. Furthermore,
although a stronger currency can be appointed as one of the
elements behind the lower competitiveness in Brazilian
exports, sluggish productivity performance and a real wage
uptrend explain a significant part of the overall loss of
competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the importance
of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing
the investment-to-gross domestic product ratio, and
advancing toward better-skilled human capital. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6302
Date: January 1, 2013
Author:
Canuto, Otaviano ;
Reis, Jose Guilherme ;
Cavallari, Matheus
Utilizing four-dimensional
(firm-product-destination-year) Brazilian firm-level export
data, the paper shows that antidumping (AD) duties result in
a significant and... Show More +
dramatic increase in the unit values of
the products that firms export to duty-imposing countries.
Furthermore, it examines the effect of potential
(retaliatory) AD duties on the unit price of the firms'
shipments. The findings suggest that AD activities in Brazil
lead Brazilian exporting firms to increase their unit export
prices for the named industries' products to decrease
the dumping margin and avoid the threat of retaliation by
the target countries. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6313
Date: January 1, 2013
Author:
Avsar, Veysel
This case study summarizes the responses
to the questionnaire on The Nuts and Bolts of the Program
Expanding Health Coverage to the Poor, developed within the
framework... Show More +
of the World Bank's UNICO - Universal
Challenge Program. By so doing, it assesses the key
features and the achievements and challenges of Brazils
Primary Care Strategy (PCS) and analyzes the contribution of
this strategy to the establishment and implementation of
universal coverage. Section 2 provides context for the
discussion by summarizing key reforms and the impact of the
PCS and describes Brazils health care delivery and
financing system. The institutional architecture and
interaction of the health care program (HCP), in this case
the PCS, is discussed in section 3. Sections 4 through 8
outline the main features of the strategy, including the
identification and targeting of beneficiaries, management of
public funds, services covered, and the information
environment. The case study concludes with a discussion of
lessons learned (section 9) and the pending agenda (section 10). Show Less -
Type: Working Paper (Numbered Series)
Report#: 74957
Date: January 1, 2013
Author:
Couttolenc, Bernard ;
Dmytraczenko, Tania
This report analyzes the dynamics of
violent crime in Brazil. What factors are driving the
overall crime decline in Brazil? Why is violent crime
declining in some states... Show More +
while it is increasing in others?
What types of interventions could help to reduce youth
violence? These are the questions that motivate this report.
Understanding what has gone right to bring crime down during
the past 10 years is crucial to tackling the challenges
posed by the new decade. The purpose of this report is to
enhance that understanding. To do so, we examine the
determinants of the crime shift at the national level,
review the experience of the high-performing states, and
generate new evidence on the impact of education policies on
youth violence prevention. This report is organized in four
chapters. Chapter one sets the stage for the issues covered
in the report. Chapter two estimates the correlation of the
change in crime in Brazil and across regions and states.
Chapter three reviews the evidence on the policies
implemented to reduce crime and violence in Sao Paulo, Minas
Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. Chapter four presents findings
on the impact of school enrollment on youth crime and
violence prevention. The last section summarizes key lessons. Show Less -
Type: Other Urban Study
Report#: 70764
Date: January 1, 2013
This paper studies the long-run impact
of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic
growth in Brazil. The first part provides a brief review of
gender... Show More +
issues in the country. The second part presents a
gender-based, three-period OLG model that accounts for
women's time allocation between market work, child
rearing, human capital accumulation, and home production.
Bargaining between spouses depends on relative human capital
stocks, and thus indirectly on access to infrastructure. The
model is calibrated and various experiments are conducted,
including investment in infrastructure, conditional cash
transfers, a reduction in gender bias in the market place,
and a composite pro-growth, pro-gender reform program. The
analysis showed that fostering gender equality, which may
partly depend on the externalities that infrastructure
creates in terms of women's time allocation and
bargaining power, may have a substantial impact on long-run
growth in Brazil. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6348
Date: January 1, 2013
Author:
Agenor, Pierre-Richard ;
Canuto, Otaviano
After expanded coverage of the school
system, ensuring that students learn at school has become
the priority in many developing countries. This case study
analyzes Brazil's... Show More +
experience in developing its student
assessment system. Brazil's story should prove
particularly interesting to those aiming to understand how a
large (and, in this case, federal) country can successfully
implement extensive reforms of its assessment system. In
Brazil's case, the reforms involved developing a
comprehensive policy framework for the support and funding
of assessment activities; creating an autonomous, federal
institution to be in charge of key assessment programs;
ensuring stable and sufficient funding; and developing
in?country capacity to carry out assessment tasks. In
Brazil's case, the reforms involved developing a
comprehensive policy framework for the support and funding
of assessment activities; creating an autonomous, federal
institution to be in charge of key assessment programs;
ensuring stable and sufficient funding; and developing
in-country capacity to carry out assessment tasks. Several
factors allowed for these reforms to take hold. Among the
most important were: stable political leadership; making
education, and the need to monitor education quality, a
national priority; and partnerships with nongovernmental
institutions. Sustained leadership across political
coalitions also is important to ensure stable support for
assessment initiatives. Finally, successful reforms require
the participation of many stakeholders, including government
and nongovernmental organizations, as well as international donors. Show Less -
Type: Working Paper (Numbered Series)
Report#: 74532
Date: December 19, 2012
Author:
Guimaraes de Castro, Maria Helena
The Rio de Janeiro Low Carbon City
Development Program is an ISO-certified framework and set of
comprehensive requirements to help the city to plan,
implement, monitor,... Show More +
and account for low carbon investments
and climate change mitigation actions across all sectors in
the city over time. The Program will enable the city to plan
and implement the mitigation actions needed to achieve its
city-wide mitigation goals, as well as credibly and
transparently demonstrate the achievement of those goals
through diligent monitoring and accounting of the actions
taken. This issue of Directions in Urban Development
describes the context underlying the development of the
Program in Rio, and the key components of such an
ISO-certified program including roles and responsibilities,
planning and evaluation, and the program process. Show Less -
Type: Brief
Report#: 74647
Date: November 1, 2012
This tenth edition of Doing Business
sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local
entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business
when complying... Show More +
with relevant regulations. It measures and
tracks changes in regulations affecting eleven areas in the
life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with
construction permits, getting electricity, registering
property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying
taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts,
resolving insolvency and employing workers. Doing Business
presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and
the protection of property rights that can be compared
across 185 economies, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, over
time. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes
and identify what reforms have worked, where and why. This
economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for
Brazil. To allow useful comparison, it also provides data
for other selected economies (comparator economies) for each
indicator. The data in this report are current as of June 1,
2012 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover
the period January - December 2011). Show Less -
Type: Working Paper
Report#: 73866
Date: October 23, 2012
This paper studies the reality and the
potential for green industrial policy. It provides a summary
of the green industrial policies, broadly understood, for
five countries.... Show More +
It then considers the relation between green
industrial policies and trade disputes, emphasizing the
Brazil-United States dispute involving ethanol and the
broader United States-China dispute. The theory of public
policy provides many lessons for green industrial policy.
The authors highlight four of these lessons, involving the
Green Paradox, the choice of quantities versus prices with
endogenous investment, the coordination issues arising from
emissions control, and the ability of green industrial
policies to promote cooperation in reducing a global public
bad like carbon emissions. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6238
Date: October 1, 2012
Author:
Karp, Larry ;
Stevenson, Megan
Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini
coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries.
The decline was statistically significant and robust to
changes in the time... Show More +
interval, inequality measures, and data
sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil,
and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a
fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive
government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills
resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and
institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on
the country. Show Less -
Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Report#: WPS6248
Date: October 1, 2012
Author:
Lustig, Nora ;
Lopez-Calva, Luis F. ;
Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo
For many years, Rio de Janeiro has held
the dubious distinction of being one of the worlds most
beautiful cities, and at the same time, one of the most
dangerous. This... Show More +
report is the story of Rios attempt to
break with history and establish a new kind of state
presence in its favelas. This report documents how life in
the favelas is changing as a result of the Police
Pacification Unit (UPP) pacification effort, as seen through
the eyes of favela residents themselves. This study used a
qualitative, case-study approach and consisted of
observations, focus groups, and key informant interviews in
four favelas. The study fits into the broader territorial
approach to urban and social development that the World Bank
has been supporting in both the state and city of Rio de
Janeiro, and for which the historical alliance between
federal, state and municipal governments in Rio has been
crucial. These projects have focused on strengthening
planning and management of urban growth in the metropolitan
region, promoting the provision of affordable housing with
access to infrastructure and service, and supporting the
implementation of a targeted, comprehensive social
development program for the urban poor. Under the social
development agenda, the Bank has been providing support to
Social UPP since its design stage, in 2010, through
technical assistance services to strengthen social
governance and territorially-based monitoring and evaluation. Show Less -
Type: Social Analysis
Report#: 76011
Date: October 1, 2012
GEF council, the Evaluation Office
conducts Country Portfolio Evaluations (CPEs) every year.
CPEs aim to provide the GEF council and the national
governments with a... Show More +
n assessment of results and performance of
GEF supported activities at the country level, and of how
GEF supported activities fit into the national strategies
and priorities as well as within the global environmental
mandate of the GEF. Based on the overall purpose of the GEF
CPEs and their standard Terms of Reference (TORs), the
evaluation of GEF support to Brazil had the following
specific objectives: (i) independently evaluate the
relevance and efficiency of GEF support in the country from
several points of view: national environmental frameworks
and decision-making processes, the GEF mandate and
achievement of global environmental benefits, and GEF
policies and procedures; (ii) assess the effectiveness and
results of completed and ongoing projects in each relevant
focal area;(iii) provide feedback and knowledge sharing to
(a) the GEF Council in its decision-making process to
allocate resources and develop policies and strategies, (b)
the country on its participation in the GEF, and (c) the
different agencies and organizations involved in the
preparation and implementation of GEF support. Show Less -
Type: Working Paper
Report#: 76395
Date: September 1, 2012
Executive Directors approved a Fiscal
Efficiency for Quality of Public Service Delivery
Development Policy Loan Project to the State of Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil in the... Show More +
amount of US$300 million, on the
payment terms and conditions set out in the President's
Memorandum. Directors expressed support for the operation,
which will improve fiscal management, social service
delivery in health and education, and public financial
management. Directors commended the government for sound
macroeconomic management, a prudent fiscal policy stance,
and a solid financial system. Directors stressed the
importance of ensuring that the benefits of the operation
reach the poorest regions of the State, and underscored the
importance of gender in the operation. They noted the
assessment of fiscal risks and urged maintaining close
dialogue with the authorities on the fiscal outturn.
Directors also encouraged the dissemination of the reforms
supported in Rio de Janeiro to other client governments,
within and outside Brazil. Finally, Directors urged strong
coordination with state agencies and donors. Show Less -
Type: Summary of Discussion
Report#: 72356
Date: August 30, 2012
The health equity and financial
protection datasheets provide a picture of equity and
financial protection in the health sectors of low-and
middle-income countries.... Show More +
Topics covered include:
inequalities in health outcomes, health behavior and health
care utilization; benefit incidence analysis; financial
protection; and the progressivity of health care financing.
The tables in this report show how health outcomes, risky
behaviors and health care utilization vary across asset
(wealth) quintiles and periods. The quintiles are based on
an asset index constructed using principal components
analysis. Benefit-Incidence Analysis (BIA) shows whether,
and by how much, government health expenditure
disproportionately benefits the poor. The distribution of
subsidies depends on the assumptions made to allocate
subsidies to households. Under the constant unit cost
assumption, each unit of utilization is assumed to cost the
same and is equal to total costs incurred in delivering this
type of service divided by the number of units of utilization. Show Less -
Type: Brief
Report#: 71943
Date: August 1, 2012
