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3. Total cost implications of providing anti-retroviral therapy in comparison with available resources

The total costs associated with providing ARVs would be substantial in absolute terms (Table 4). However, it is important to consider these costs in the context of available resources. Table 5 below illustrates how the total costs derived in 2. compare with GDP, health sector expenditure, and National AIDS Budgets in the different geographic regions[5]. The lower estimate represents the situation illustrated in Table 4 in which 50% of those eligible receive AZT therapy at the lowest estimated annual cost of AZT therapy (US$3 570 per patient); the higher estimate represents the situation illustrated above in which 100% of those eligible receive triple-combination therapy at the highest estimated annual cost for such therapy (US$13 902 per patient).

Table 5: Estimated Total Annual Cost for ARV Therapy as a percentage of GDP, Health Sector Expenditures, and National AIDS Budgets by Geographic Region

Geographic Region Estimated Annual Cost of ARV Therapy as % 1991 GDP Estimated Annual Cost of ARV Therapy as % 1990 Total Health Expenditures Estimated Annual Cost of ARV Therapy as % National AIDS Budgets
North America 0.03 to 0.2 0.2 to 1.8 31 to 243
Western Europe 0.02 to 0.1 0.2 to 1.9 1 136 to 8 727
Oceania 0.01 to 0.1 0.15 to 1.3 57 to 500
Latin America 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 23.9 93 to 720
Sub-Saharan Africa 8.6 to 66.9 215 to 1 673 258 750 to 2 017 500
Caribbean 1.9 to 14.8 48.1 to 370 92 857 to 714 286
Eastern Europe 0.006 to 0.04 0.15 to 1 750 to 5 000
SE Mediterranean 0.02 to 0.1 0.4 to 3.5 2 400 to 20 000
Northeast Asia 0.007 to 0.06 0.2 to 1.5 300 to 2 400
Southeast Asia 1.9 to 14.6 46.8 to 364 16 571 to 128 857

These figures suggest that ARV therapy would be unaffordable in sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia, the Caribbean, and Latin America, but could be considered in other regions where total costs would be less than 1% of GDP and less than 4% of health sector expenditure even for the very expensive combination therapies. Overseas Development Assistance for HIV/AIDS, estimated at

US$ 257 million in 1993 (Laws, 1996), is also too small to change this conclusion.


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