ARV Treatment: Special Focus
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I agree with the statement of Mr. Izazola-Licea that we need reliable forecasts of AIDS-cases in developing countries. There have been quite some efforts in this field for western countries, and several of them were quite useful. However, it seems that there is almost nothing like that for developing countries. In 1988 we developed a detailed model for Tanzania. In 1996 we compared our predictions with reality and found that they were quite good. However, models like that need steady maintenance in order to be up to date. We would like to enhance this model again. But if we look in international journals there is hardly any publication. Who can support us? Therefore, I would recommend that those who are interested in predicting future AIDS-cases in developing countries should get in contact with each other as soon as possible. This should be one of the research agendas for the next few years. Steffen Flessa. University Erlangen-Nuernberg, Germany P.S.: For reference please see: Flessa, S.: OR vs. ORacle. in: ORMStoday, June 1996, P. 44-51 Heidenberger, K.; Flessa, S.: A system dynamics model for AIDS policy support in Tanzania. in: European Journal of Operational Research 70 (1993), 167-176 |
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