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| I certainly agree with Jose Antonio about the need for better forecasts and estimates. One big problem is the lack of good surveillance data in many countries. In places where the epidemic is the worst, surveillance is better, but the large number of cases makes ARV too expensive. In many places in LA where ARV might be affordable (because of higher incomes and fewer cases) surveillance is very weak. For example, I understand that Panama is now considering whether it can and should pay for ARV. However, there are only a few surveillance studies from 1993 in three cities that looked at HIV prevalence. Thus it is virtually impossible to estimate the number of people who might come forward today for ARV treatment if it is announced that such treatment will be available. This creates a new need for better surveillance in general population groups in countries with low levels of HIV prevalence. |
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