Africa Region Working Paper Series No. 48

HIV/AIDS, Human Capital, and Economic Growth Prospects for Mozambique

Abstract

Using a computable general equilibrium modelling approach, the author finds that the Mozambican economy will be 14% to 20% smaller in 2010 on account of AIDS. Per capita GDP growth will be between 0.3% and 1.0% lower per annum.

The main causes of the growth slowdown are reduced productivity growth, reduced population growth and human capital accumulation, and reduced physical accumulation. Mitigating and preventive policy responses are proposed in Africa.

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